Abreu trade "unlikely"

[Chicago White Sox]

If I wanted to be as pessimistic as you are optimistic, over his age 28 and 29 seasons he put up 5 WAR, so your statement that "nothing below 6 WAR makes sense" for his age 31 and 32 years is undercut by him doing exactly that 2 years ago.

 

The reality is probably somewhere in-between. I think one of the reasons his age 29 season was so bad probably was that he had some leg problems in the first half that he played through. If he stays healthy your 6 is probably pretty close, if that flares back up then the projections could be pretty good.

How am I being optimistic? He’s averaged 3.4 WAR/year in his career and is coming off a 4.1 WAR. Assuming 3 WAR/year over his next two seasons is not being optimistic it’s being realistic. That doesn’t mean it’s an automatic. s*** can happen, but when we’re talking about a one-off item, it should not be considered as part of the base forecast. A 4.5 WAR projection over the next two years is most definitely a downside case if you use any sort of logic & reasoning.

 

I do financial modeling for a living and I can tell you the single biggest mistake people make is when they don’t challenge the output of these models and assume they are automatically accurate. Unfortunately models like these are limited/biased by one-time events and small sample sizes. As a result, there is no perfect model that works for every player/situation and as a result there will always be outliers. Anyone looking at Jose’s career and telling me the most likely outcome for him (even with some conservatism) is being a 2.2 WAR per year player is crazy to me. Either you’re taking what Steamer or some other projection system automatically spits out as gospel or you’re assuming he’s going to get injured. No standard aging curve should assume that type of fall-off in his age 31 & 32 seasons.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Chicago White Sox

[Balta1701]

How am I being optimistic? He’s averaged 3.4 WAR/year in his career and is coming off a 4.1 WAR. Assuming 3 WAR/year over his next two seasons is not being optimistic it’s being realistic. That doesn’t mean it’s an automatic. s*** can happen, but when we’re talking about a one-off item, it should not be considered as part of the base forecast. A 4.5 WAR projection over the next two years is most definitely a downside case if you use any sort of logic & reasoning.

 

I do financial modeling for a living and I can tell you the single biggest mistake people make is when they don’t challenge the output of these models and assume they are automatically accurate. Unfortunately models like these are limited/biased by one-time events and small sample sizes. As a result, there is no perfect model that works for every player/situation and as a result there will always be outliers. Anyone looking at Jose’s career and telling me the most likely outcome for him (even with some conservatism) is being a 2.2 WAR per year player is crazy to me. Either you’re taking what Steamer or some other projection system automatically spits out as gospel or you’re assuming he’s going to get injured. No standard aging curve should assume that type of fall-off in his age 31 & 32 seasons.

Take a look at your own words.

To me, I don’t see how anything below 6 WAR makes any sense and I would expect him to be closer to a 7 WAR player.

He was a 5 WAR player in his age 28-29 seasons. So if you saying "I expect him to be 2 wins better in his age 31-32 seasons than he was at age 28-29" isn't optimistic, I don't know what else to call it, and per your words his age 28-29 seasons "don't make sense".

 

I think optimistic is a very fair description of your projection for him. It doesn't have to be wrong, but at age 29 Jose Abreu put up a 1.8 WAR season. You getting to 7 by assuming he repeats 2017 is you being optimistic as just a person saying he'll be at 3.6 or lower based on his 2016 season is being overly pessimistic. Either could be within the range of possibilities from what we have already seen from him.

[Chicago White Sox]

Yeah. How many teams need a 1B exactly? Teams could sign Santana, Hosmer, and even Morrison and Bruce just for money. And that doesn't even count the teams that could potentially convert corner outfielders to 1B and sign another outfielder.

 

I've thought all season that it's more likely Abreu signs an extension for about 4-5 years buying out his last 2 arbitration years than the Sox getting a haul for him.

I’d give Abreu something like 4/$80M with a 5th year team option and call it a day. He can anchor the middle of the lineup for a big chunk of our window, serve as mentor for Moncada, Robert, & other young LatAm players, improve our sales pitch to free agents next offseason, & further establish our status as the team to sign with for future Cuban amateurs (which becomes important with capped spending). All those factors combined make him worth more to us than other teams IMO.

[Balta1701]

I’d give Abreu something like 4/$80M with a 5th year team option and call it a day. He can anchor the middle of the lineup for a big chunk of our window, serve as mentor for Moncada, Robert, & other young LatAm players, improve our sales pitch to free agents next offseason, & further establish our status as the team to sign with for future Cuban amateurs (which becomes important with capped spending). All those factors combined make him worth more to us than other teams IMO.

I'm totally ok with a setup like this.

[Bob Sacamano]

I’d give Abreu something like 4/$80M with a 5th year team option and call it a day. He can anchor the middle of the lineup for a big chunk of our window, serve as mentor for Moncada, Robert, & other young LatAm players, improve our sales pitch to free agents next offseason, & further establish our status as the team to sign with for future Cuban amateurs (which becomes important with capped spending). All those factors combined make him worth more to us than other teams IMO.

 

That contract would be perfect.

[Balta1701]

I’d give Abreu something like 4/$80M with a 5th year team option and call it a day. He can anchor the middle of the lineup for a big chunk of our window, serve as mentor for Moncada, Robert, & other young LatAm players, improve our sales pitch to free agents next offseason, & further establish our status as the team to sign with for future Cuban amateurs (which becomes important with capped spending). All those factors combined make him worth more to us than other teams IMO.

 

 

That contract would be perfect.

If you offered him that and he said no, would that make you ready to trade him for the best available offer? It would for me.

[Bob Sacamano]

If you offered him that and he said no, would that make you ready to trade him for the best available offer? It would for me.

 

I think so.

[southsider2k5]

I'd give Abreu something like 4/$80M with a 5th year team option and call it a day. He can anchor the middle of the lineup for a big chunk of our window, serve as mentor for Moncada, Robert, & other young LatAm players, improve our sales pitch to free agents next offseason, & further establish our status as the team to sign with for future Cuban amateurs (which becomes important with capped spending). All those factors combined make him worth more to us than other teams IMO.

 

This would be my first preference unless a deal came along that you absolutely could not pass up headlined by a top 10 type of guy.

[BlackSox13]

George Ofman‏

@georgeofman

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Confirming talks between White-sox and Red sox for Abreu but told it probably will take an offer Rick Hahn can't refuse. Remember, Bosox GM Dave Dombrowski is not shy about trading prospects. Remember Sale for Moncada, Kopech and two others?

@WBBMNewsradio

Ha, no s***? DD is the White Sox best friend right now.

 

Dombrowski has ...

 

1) left Detroit's farm absolutely decimated.

 

2) left Detroit on the hook with a few bad contracts.

 

3) traded Moncada and Kopech to the White Sox.

 

I really like DD.

 

 

[Balta1701]

I think so.

I think that's a bigger question to me.

 

If Jose wouldn't sign such a deal right now, then that tells me he is insistent on hitting the free agent market after 2019, which means that rather than trying to get better between 2019-2020, the White Sox will instead be trying to tread water and replace a middle of the order bat. That would be unacceptable to me. We can't have a team seemingly ready to go in 2020 then suddenly be stuck in a scramble for Justin Smoak.

[greg775]

I gotta disagree with Balta’s logic on team building. Yes, developing your own talent (especially superstar talent) is critical, but there is nothing wrong with filling multiple holes with smart free agent signings if financially possible.

 

The Astros are a perfect example. Yes, they developed their core, but they also went out and signed Beltran, Reddick, Gurriel, & Morton to play important roles. Those four guys earned a combined $50M in 2017. And they were able to add those guys plus some expensive vets via trade (McCann, Verlander) & some pricey relievers in past years (Gregerson & Sipp) because of how little their core guys made.

 

The White Sox should be in a similar position come next season. We could extend Abreu at $20M/per and have a big chunk of our core in place for less than $50M in total commitments. Assuming guys develop as expected, we should be incredibly active in next year’s free agent class. And I’m not just talking about filling in that “one last piece” as Balta routinely calls it. I’m talking adding impact talent where possible (hopefully Machado & an elite reliever) and then buying yourself some time until your next wave of talent is ready by signing veterans to short-term deals at crucial spots.

 

This idea that we can’t compete until all our talent is up and has proven itself is nonsense. The goal should be build a strong foundation, add some vets while you have the financial wiggle room, and gradually introduce more talent over time to help offset escalating costs. Hahn is not going to wait until our less seasoned prospects like Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, Cease, Burger, & Sheets are ready to start trying to compete. The moment guys like Jimenez, Collins, Kopech, & Hansen are called up our window officially begins. It will likely take a year or two for those guys to fully develop, but Hahn will most definitely try to surround them with as much veteran talent as possible as early as next year, especially since there will be a very deep free agent class to leverage.

This explains my position pretty perfectly as it stands today. By trading Abreu and Avi, this thread is worthless. It means Hahn is pushing back the years of contention (in theory) as he waits for the kids to completely overhaul the everyday lineup and pitching rotation. Presumably add some vets through free agency to that 3-4 years down the road. I have a sneaky feeling they'll be bargain type veterans, taking a shot on some relievers who don't make a lot of cash. I'm assuming our payroll is going to be mighty low for some time to come. We shall see.

Edited November 30, 2017 by greg775

[Chicago White Sox]

Take a look at your own words.

 

He was a 5 WAR player in his age 28-29 seasons. So if you saying "I expect him to be 2 wins better in his age 31-32 seasons than he was at age 28-29" isn't optimistic, I don't know what else to call it, and per your words his age 28-29 seasons "don't make sense".

 

I think optimistic is a very fair description of your projection for him. It doesn't have to be wrong, but at age 29 Jose Abreu put up a 1.8 WAR season. You getting to 7 by assuming he repeats 2017 is you being optimistic as just a person saying he'll be at 3.6 or lower based on his 2016 season is being overly pessimistic. Either could be within the range of possibilities from what we have already seen from him.

I don’t think you’re understanding this. These projections are supposed to represent his most likely outcome. Of course 5 WAR is possible, but why am I projecting a one-off injury to happen again in my base case forecast? You’re literally picking his worst statistical season which was impacted by injury and somehow using that to argue his 2018 season will be 33% worse than his average production & nearly 50% worse than m his most recent season. There is absolutely no logic whatsoever in overweighting his 2016 season, which is exactly what you’re doing. A median outcome projection should most definitely be higher than 4.5 WAR over the next two seasons.

 

Let me ask you this, if I were to offer you a $1M if you could predict Jose Abreu’s WAR next year within +/- 0.1 points, what value would you pick? Are you seriously suggesting you’d go with something between 2.0 & 2.5?

[Lillian]

I’d give Abreu something like 4/$80M with a 5th year team option and call it a day. He can anchor the middle of the lineup for a big chunk of our window, serve as mentor for Moncada, Robert, & other young LatAm players, improve our sales pitch to free agents next offseason, & further establish our status as the team to sign with for future Cuban amateurs (which becomes important with capped spending). All those factors combined make him worth more to us than other teams IMO.

 

That would be fantastic for management, but what would the benefit be to Abreu? That represents $20M per year, which is not much more than he will get through arbitration, for the last 2 years of his pre-eligibility for free agency. I would guess that it would take at least $25M per year, starting this next season and covering 5 seasons total. That would not be a bad deal for the Sox. It avoids a huge long term commitment, and only obligates them through his age 35 season. Do you think that management could live with that?

 

I wouldn't discount the possibility that all of this trade talk is posturing, in an effort to motivate Jose to sign such an extension.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Lillian

[Chicago White Sox]

If you offered him that and he said no, would that make you ready to trade him for the best available offer? It would for me.

I would definitely trade him, whether or not it was during this offseason or at the trade deadline would depend on the offer. Obviously I’d prefer to move him sooner rather than later, but there are a lot of 1B options on the market right now.

[Chicago White Sox]

That would be fantastic for management, but what would the benefit be to Abreu? That represents $20M per year, which is not much more than he will get through arbitration, for the last 2 years of his pre-eligibility for free agency. I would guess that it would take at least $25M per year, starting this next season and covering 5 seasons total. That would not be a bad deal for the Sox. It avoids a huge long term commitment, and only obligates them through his age 35 season. Do you think that management could live with that?

Edwin Encarnacion just signed a 3/$60M deal as a free agent. Yes he’s older, but they have been very comparable players. I have no doubt Abreu would get another year or two as a free agent, but if he’s happy here then maybe he’ll give us a bit of a discount on the years. I think the fact he’ll likely need to move to DH down the road will limit his AAV to about $20M per. Anyways, we basically did something similar with Pauline IIRC and he ended up deciding to stay here. Some of these guys do value stability/familiarity and the fact we should (hopefully) be damn good is another incentive. I just don’t see Jose a break the bank type but I could be wrong.

[Balta1701]

That would be fantastic for management, but what would the benefit be to Abreu? That represents $20M per year, which is not much more than he will get through arbitration, for the last 2 years of his pre-eligibility for free agency. I would guess that it would take at least $25M per year, starting this next season and covering 5 seasons total. That would not be a bad deal for the Sox. It avoids a huge long term commitment, and only obligates them through his age 35 season. Do you think that management could live with that?

The benefit for Abreu is that it would guarantee him an extra $40 million beyond what he would get in arbitration - that's $40 million in insurance if he gets hurt or repeats his 2016 season in 2019.

 

5/$125? when he has 2 arb years left? No, I don't think management or I would go for that. Edwin Encarnacion's contract signed last year was 3/$60 - that was covering his age 34-36 seasons. He reached FA as a substantially better hitter than Abreu. Abreu will hit Free Agency before his age 33 season, so one year younger than Encarnacion, but Encarnaction being a better player should balance that out somewhat. So no, Abreu is not worth 2x as much as Encarnacion, and especially not when he has 2 years of arbitration remaining.

[southsider2k5]

Edwin Encarnacion just signed a 3/$60M deal as a free agent. Yes he's older, but they have been very comparable players. I have no doubt Abreu would get another year or two as a free agent, but if he's happy here then maybe he'll give us a bit of a discount on the years. I think the fact he'll likely need to move to DH down the road will limit his AAV to about $20M per. Anyways, we basically did something similar with Pauline IIRC and he ended up deciding to stay here. Some of these guys do value stability/familiarity and the fact we should (hopefully) be damn good is another incentive. I just don't see Jose a break the bank type but I could be wrong.

 

Good comp! I keep thinking that something between 4/65 to 4/70 might get it done considering he does still have one lesser arb year to factor in.

[hi8is]

This explains my position pretty perfectly as it stands today. By trading Abreu and Avi, this thread is worthless. It means Hahn is pushing back the years of contention (in theory) as he waits for the kids to completely overhaul the everyday lineup and pitching rotation. Presumably add some vets through free agency to that 3-4 years down the road. I have a sneaky feeling they'll be bargain type veterans, taking a shot on some relievers who don't make a lot of cash. I'm assuming our payroll is going to be mighty low for some time to come. We shall see.

Regarding the bolded text.... huh?!?!????

 

Regarding the italics... I think you're in for a surprise GreggyPoo

[fredmanrique]

Just a general observation about AAV and excess value, as I notice a lot of people using that to lower their perception of an Abreu return at his salary.

 

Does it not ignore supply and demand and pretend as though any of 30 teams can have any player at what they view as appropriate value WAR for dollar spent?

 

There are only so many consistent top 10 hitting first basemen in baseball. The whole league these days ttys so hard now to accouunt for defense, it overinflates guys like Hayward, and undervalued almost all 1b in my opinion. Part of that is less steroids in the game too.

 

Just a thought when people say groome+chavis (or whatever) is too much for abreu

Edited November 30, 2017 by fredmanrique

[hogan873]

I’d give Abreu something like 4/$80M with a 5th year team option and call it a day. He can anchor the middle of the lineup for a big chunk of our window, serve as mentor for Moncada, Robert, & other young LatAm players, improve our sales pitch to free agents next offseason, & further establish our status as the team to sign with for future Cuban amateurs (which becomes important with capped spending). All those factors combined make him worth more to us than other teams IMO.

This is what I've been thinking, too. I'm not sure he'd take an offer like that, but he has expressed wanting to play for the Sox for many years. I could see boosting those numbers a bit, and if he agrees it's a great deal for the Sox and a pretty good deal for him. If not, then the Sox could look to trade for the best deal possible. Personally I'd feel better about having him anchoring the lineup for the years when we're contending while mentoring all the young 'uns.

[Bob Sacamano]

Just a general observation about AAV and excess value, as I notice a lot of people using that to lower their perception of an Abreu return at his salary.

Does it not ignore supply and demand and pretend as though any of 30 teams can have any player at what they view as appropriate value WAR for dollar spent?

 

There are only so many consistent top 10 hitting first basemen in baseball. The whole league days so hard now to accouunt for defense, it overinflates guys like Hayward, and undervalued almost all 1b in my opinion. Part of that is less steroids in the game too.

 

Just a thought when people say groome+chavis (or whatever) is too much for abreu

 

This was all over the thread on MLBTR. It was getting annoying to read. I ended up breaking it down very simple for someone on there: If Abreu is dealt, that means Rick Hahn received a great haul. It's that simple since the Sox don't have to just trade him away. He's not blocking anyone and they have no salary commitments next year (outside of Shields).

Edited November 30, 2017 by soxfan2014

[hogan873]

This explains my position pretty perfectly as it stands today. By trading Abreu and Avi, this thread is worthless. It means Hahn is pushing back the years of contention (in theory) as he waits for the kids to completely overhaul the everyday lineup and pitching rotation. Presumably add some vets through free agency to that 3-4 years down the road. I have a sneaky feeling they'll be bargain type veterans, taking a shot on some relievers who don't make a lot of cash. I'm assuming our payroll is going to be mighty low for some time to come. We shall see.

I don't think trading Garcia affects anything the Sox have planned. They have quite a few promising outfield prospects that could be patrolling the outfield for years. They might have to look for a veteran to play a year or so, but that's about it. Trading Abreu has some effects, but if the right deal comes along I'm sure the Sox have a contingency plan for 1st base.

 

As far as the payroll, I think you're going to be surprised. The Sox will spend next off season, and they will be pursuing the likes of Machado and Harper.

[Balta1701]

This was all over the thread on MLBTR. It was getting annoying to read. I ended up breaking it down very simple for someone on there: If Abreu is dealt, that means Rick Hahn received a great haul. It's that simple since the Sox don't have to just trade him away. He's not blocking anyone and they have no salary commitments next year (outside of Shields).

I still think it could also mean "Abreu is not going to be here in 2020". If he's not going to be here in 2020, because he won't sign or because you know something else about his medicals, then I think you must move him now. His value is not likely to go up any farther - you can make a case (I think a wrong one) that Garcia's value is going to go up, but Abreu is coming off a great year and still has 2 years of control left. He's not going to raise his value even with a great first half.

 

We cannot allow ourselves to be an 85+ win team led by the youngsters in 2019 and then lose our veteran 1b/DH. That is the worst case scenario, and we should do what is necessary to avoid it.

[Dick Allen]

Again, why can't the White Sox trade them now, and sign them later if there is a need and they are worth the money?

 

It's pretty much a free look at how they will age, and you get some assets for assets you don't need while you aren't going to contend. You obviously will have competition, and their new teams will have some sort of say, but they save their current salaries for a couple of seasons, so if they are worth it later, they can pay them more then.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Bob Sacamano]

Again, why can't the White Sox trade them now, and sign them later if there is a need and they are worth the money?

 

It's pretty much a free look at how they will age, and you get some assets for assets you don't need while you aren't going to contend. You obviously will have competition, and their new teams will have some sort of say, but they save their current salaries for a couple of seasons, so if they are worth it later, they can pay them more then.

 

This is fine too.