If you had to trade either Avi or Jose....

[Balta1701]

And he has expressed interest in playing for the White Sox for his career. I really like the idea of a 4-5 year extension, and I believe that he'd take a little less money to stay. I wouldn't argue against $20-$22 million a year average.

Until 2017 I would not have offered him an extension. He went from a .964 OPS guy to a .850 OPS guy to a .820 OPS guy over 3 years. Until his resurgence in 2017 he looked like he'd be finished by age 32.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Tough choice. I really like Avi and think he will continue to do well but he still has just the one good year.. Abreu is much older than Avi in baseball years but has been productive although not great 1/2 the time. Abreu is likely to be a better bet for short term production but Avi, if legit, the better choice for long term production. Abreu is the safe choice if you want the best chance at being right . Avi the best bet if you truly want a piece that is certainly young enough to be useful to the rebuild.

 

It's really a toss up so I'll go with Avi just to show faith in him. Since I had faith in him when he sucked I have to have faith in him going forward.

 

Edit:

Oops the question was who would you trade and I picked Avi when I wanted to pick Jose .

Edited December 2, 2017 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[GreenSox]

I picked Abreu because his value is much more determinable.

While Avi may regress, he also may build on last year and show some power. That would explode his value. I'm willing to take the chance.

[GGajewski18]

I've always been in the camp where I would definitely sell high on Avi now rather than wait until the season.

 

However, if the Sox do trade Abreu, trade them both. Sign more stop gaps and flip them at the deadline then let the kids play the 2nd half of the season.

[Chicago White Sox]

The Athletic has a great article on Avi by Eno Sarris and I highly recommend anyone with access read it. It might convince the guys who voted for Abreu in this poll to reconsider.

[Jack Parkman]

The Athletic has a great article on Avi by Eno Sarris and I highly recommend anyone with access read it. It might convince the guys who voted for Abreu in this poll to reconsider.

If you look at the data on Avi there is no reason why anyone should trade for him. If you believe the underlying stats, 2017 was an extreme outlier, and is highly unlikely to be repeated, and a team would be giving up valuable assets for someone who would be a non-tender candidate in the 2018-19 offseason. I posted in the Avi thread about this. It only takes one sucker though, and if Hahn gets an offer of anyone who is or could be a prospect, he should take it and run.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

If you look at the data on Avi there is no reason why anyone should trade for him. If you believe the underlying stats, 2017 was an extreme outlier, and is highly unlikely to be repeated, and a team would be giving up valuable assets for someone who would be a non-tender candidate in the 2018-19 offseason. I posted in the Avi thread about this. It only takes one sucker though, and if Hahn gets an offer of anyone who is or could be a prospect, he should take it and run.

It's sort of funny how a guy who hit .330 with near 20 HR's and 80 RBI improved his defense , his speed, his base running , cut down on his K's , had career highs in doubles , triples, HR, WAR, OBP, wRC+, OPS, OPS+, Total bases and was an All Star is treated with such disdain ,as if all those things just magically appeared without dedication and hard work to actually improve himself. Will he ever have such a high BABIP again ? Probably not but give the guy some credit. Hitting.330 and the rest of it is not just some result of the stars aligning right or making a deal with the devil .

[Soha]

It's sort of funny how a guy who hit .330 with near 20 HR's and 80 RBI improved his defense , his speed, his base running , cut down on his K's , had career highs in doubles , triples, HR, WAR, OBP, wRC+, OPS, OPS+, Total bases and was an All Star is treated with such disdain ,as if all those things just magically appeared without dedication and hard work to actually improve himself. Will he ever have such a high BABIP again ? Probably not but give the guy some credit. Hitting.330 and the rest of it is not just some result of the stars aligning right or making a deal with the devil .

 

I agree with this.

 

The over-rating of BABIP by some people here is just ridiculous. It's a useful stat, but it only tells a small part of the story.

 

Personally I like Avi's chances of hitting .300 again next year. He doesn't need to hit .330 to be a big asset.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Soha

[Balta1701]

It's sort of funny how a guy who hit .330 with near 20 HR's and 80 RBI improved his defense , his speed, his base running , cut down on his K's , had career highs in doubles , triples, HR, WAR, OBP, wRC+, OPS, OPS+, Total bases and was an All Star is treated with such disdain ,as if all those things just magically appeared without dedication and hard work to actually improve himself. Will he ever have such a high BABIP again ? Probably not but give the guy some credit. Hitting.330 and the rest of it is not just some result of the stars aligning right or making a deal with the devil .

The biggest problem for me remains - everyone said he couldn't do his first 2 months again on June 1. They said the same thing about his first 3 months on July 1. They said the same thing on August 1. He somehow then kept doing it.

 

I don't know about .390, but there are levels of bat control and skill that can let guys have high BABIP. Derek Jeter's career BABIP was .350 and that is weighed down by his last 5 seasons when he started getting old. I'd be far more convinced if Avi had hit 35 HR this year, but Avi's career number is .340 and he was driving the ball better last year. He has always had strong bat control, he just never drove the ball until this year.

 

Here's the basic trade off. This year, there are only a tiny handful of outfielders on the FA market. You've got JD Martinez at big money, a big trade price for Stanton, or the huge dropoffs to Bruce and Cargo. If you are needing to fill an outfield spot on a competing team and you can't afford the dollar amounts for Stanton or Martinez, Avi is a risk but he looks like as good of an option as Bruce, and maybe better.

[Chicago White Sox]

It's sort of funny how a guy who hit .330 with near 20 HR's and 80 RBI improved his defense , his speed, his base running , cut down on his K's , had career highs in doubles , triples, HR, WAR, OBP, wRC+, OPS, OPS+, Total bases and was an All Star is treated with such disdain ,as if all those things just magically appeared without dedication and hard work to actually improve himself. Will he ever have such a high BABIP again ? Probably not but give the guy some credit. Hitting.330 and the rest of it is not just some result of the stars aligning right or making a deal with the devil .

He no doubt improved last year in all facets of the game. However, his batting average was definitely fueled by some serious luck and when his BABIP comes back down to earth he’s not going to be a 4 WAR player again unless the power finally materializes. That could happen but I’m not banking on it and I’m not passing on actual value via trade to find out.

[witesoxfan]

I agree with this.

 

The over-rating of BABIP by some people here is just ridiculous. It's a useful stat, but it only tells a small part of the story.

 

Personally I like Avi's chances of hitting .300 again next year. He doesn't need to hit .330 to be a big asset.

 

It tells more than a small part of the story. The last time someone ran a BABIP as high as Avisail's was Chris Johnson in 2013. He finished with the 5th highest batting average at .321. His career average was .275.

 

Garcia made legitimate changes to his game for the best, but to suggest that much of his season last year was not derived from incredible batted ball luck is frankly ignorant. It's probably safe to figure him as a 2 WAR player unless the power starts to blossom, because he will not be running a .392 BABIP again. It takes approximately 800 balls in play to figure statistical significance of BABIP for a hitter. Garcia put 389 balls in play last year. He didn't even reach the halfway point of statistical significance. There is nothing you can determine by his BABIP last year, and we might not discover anything till the end of next season.

[Chicago White Sox]

The biggest problem for me remains - everyone said he couldn't do his first 2 months again on June 1. They said the same thing about his first 3 months on July 1. They said the same thing on August 1. He somehow then kept doing it.

 

I don't know about .390, but there are levels of bat control and skill that can let guys have high BABIP. Derek Jeter's career BABIP was .350 and that is weighed down by his last 5 seasons when he started getting old. I'd be far more convinced if Avi had hit 35 HR this year, but Avi's career number is .340 and he was driving the ball better last year. He has always had strong bat control, he just never drove the ball until this year.

 

Here's the basic trade off. This year, there are only a tiny handful of outfielders on the FA market. You've got JD Martinez at big money, a big trade price for Stanton, or the huge dropoffs to Bruce and Cargo. If you are needing to fill an outfield spot on a competing team and you can't afford the dollar amounts for Stanton or Martinez, Avi is a risk but he looks like as good of an option as Bruce, and maybe better.

Read the article I mentioned. His BABIP was driven by an unusually high batting average on ground balls. If it were driven by him actualling hitting more line drives that would be one thing, but a big chunk of those grounders will likely turn into outs next year. His BABIP will almost certainly fall by a good 40+ points next year and that’s going to radically impact his offensive production. If he doesn’t learn to get more loft, he’s suddenly a 2ish WAR OF and that assumes his defensive & baserunning improvements stick.

[Soha]

It tells more than a small part of the story. The last time someone ran a BABIP as high as Avisail's was Chris Johnson in 2013. He finished with the 5th highest batting average at .321. His career average was .275.

 

Garcia made legitimate changes to his game for the best, but to suggest that much of his season last year was not derived from incredible batted ball luck is frankly ignorant. It's probably safe to figure him as a 2 WAR player unless the power starts to blossom, because he will not be running a .392 BABIP again. It takes approximately 800 balls in play to figure statistical significance of BABIP for a hitter. Garcia put 389 balls in play last year. He didn't even reach the halfway point of statistical significance. There is nothing you can determine by his BABIP last year, and we might not discover anything till the end of next season.

 

I suggested his BA could drop 30 points - and he'd still be a valuable player. I just find it odd how some of you guys refuse to give him credit. Or refuse to acknowledge that he might further improve in some of the aspects of his game - like taking walks, or extra base hits. So again, even if he does drop 30 or 40 points in his BA, he could still be an extremely valuable player. Maybe even as valuable as he was in 2017.

 

As said above by another poster, the same people kept saying, oh its only May..oh he only did it half a season..oh wait, he did it all year. There's no reason to think all these people that have been wrong all along will suddenly be right about him. Maybe, just maybe he will reacha little b it of that potential that we heard about 3-4 years ago?

[Balta1701]

It tells more than a small part of the story. The last time someone ran a BABIP as high as Avisail's was Chris Johnson in 2013. He finished with the 5th highest batting average at .321. His career average was .275.

 

Garcia made legitimate changes to his game for the best, but to suggest that much of his season last year was not derived from incredible batted ball luck is frankly ignorant. It's probably safe to figure him as a 2 WAR player unless the power starts to blossom, because he will not be running a .392 BABIP again. It takes approximately 800 balls in play to figure statistical significance of BABIP for a hitter. Garcia put 389 balls in play last year. He didn't even reach the halfway point of statistical significance. There is nothing you can determine by his BABIP last year, and we might not discover anything till the end of next season.

So, this isn't how statistics works. There isn't an "on-off" switch for statistical significance. The more contact is made the more likely it is for things to approach a natural value, but 400 PAs will produce only a slightly smaller variance than 800 PAs will.

 

For a comparable example - if you are doing a standard, randomized poll - if you poll 800 or so respondents you will get a margin of error of plus or minus 3%. If you only poll 400 respondents, your margin of error rises but only to 5% assuming that your respondents are randomly sampled.

 

For BABIP, there is going to be a larger variance for 400 PAs, but it is cut by less than 1/2 if you move up to 800 PAs. I did a quick google search on people talking about this issue and found this discussion of the stats:

The actual standard deviation of hitter BABIP among players with at least 300 PA in a given season is about .031, but removing the fraction that could be attributed to luck using the same methods as the article I just referenced, and true hitter skill in BABIP should have a standard deviation of about .019. My model predicts about .018, indicating that I have isolated the most important aspects of BABIP.

In other words, from 400 PAs, if Avi's BABIP last year was .395, then if you replayed the 2017 season 100 times, 70 times out of that 100 his BABIP should be within 20 points of what he put up this year if the events were randomly distributed.

 

In other words, if he played out this season 100 times, his expected BABIP is way above .350. It might be below .395, but it isn't anywhere close to .300. Whatever he was doing, he maximized his chances of balls falling for hits and over 400 balls in play, the odds of this happening for a .275 hitter are extremely low. If his BABIP over 400 PAs is 395, then if you replayed this season several thousand times, then you'd be seriously surprised if overall it wound up less than .375, and there's an equal chance that it's .375 and .415.

 

Edit: this is also my current version of drunken statistics. I think my BAC is still low enough to drive legally, but I wanted to throw that in.

[hi8is]

After months and months of the same back and forth exchange - it's now become...

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

After months and months of the same back and forth exchange - it's now become...

 

To me it's fun even more so now than when I was challenging everyone about Avi. At least now a few have converted. Next year if he doesn't get traded a few more probably twice as many with 2 good seasons in a row.

[hi8is]

To me it's fun even more so now than when I was challenging everyone about Avi. At least now a few have converted. Next year if he doesn't get traded a few more probably twice as many with 2 good seasons in a row.

I will say this, it's always surprised me by how fast people where willing to write him off. My stance was to ride it out and see what happens. That's still my approach and I speculate we'll see some regression next year that will be neutralized by an increase in power production.

 

Should that happen, I don't need to see anything else and would want him extended on a four year deal with two team options for years 5 and 6.

[Balta1701]

To me it's fun even more so now than when I was challenging everyone about Avi. At least now a few have converted. Next year if he doesn't get traded a few more probably twice as many with 2 good seasons in a row.

Even if that was gobbledygook to those who don't speak standard deviations, the conclusion is "you have a 1/1000 or worse chance of putting up that kind of season if you're not actually a really good hitter".

 

Summary enough?

[Dam8610]

If you look at the data on Avi there is no reason why anyone should trade for him. If you believe the underlying stats, 2017 was an extreme outlier, and is highly unlikely to be repeated, and a team would be giving up valuable assets for someone who would be a non-tender candidate in the 2018-19 offseason. I posted in the Avi thread about this. It only takes one sucker though, and if Hahn gets an offer of anyone who is or could be a prospect, he should take it and run.

 

Are you only looking at BABIP? Because in looking at the underlying data, that is the only way you could come to that conclusion. His entire contact profile changed this year, he pulled the ball more, made less soft contact than at any point in his career by noticeable amounts, and his strikeout rate dropped dramatically, both from his career norm and throughout the season. Avi is a player who I think will experience significant regression in 2018, but I expect to see positive regression in the power and walk numbers as much as I expect the negative average regression everyone is worried about. I wouldn't be surprised if those regressions offset and he became a 4 WAR player again next year with a much different statline.

[hi8is]

Even if that was gobbledygook to those who don't speak standard deviations, the conclusion is "you have a 1/1000 or worse chance of putting up that kind of season if you're not actually a really good hitter".

 

Summary enough?

Seems to me that your response qualifies more so for gobbledygook than CaliSoxFanViaSWside's original post. I partially wanted to point this out just because gobbledygook is oh so fun to say... so...

 

gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook.

 

gobbledygook!

 

GOBBLEDYGOOooooooooK!!!!!

[hi8is]

Are you only looking at BABIP? Because in looking at the underlying data, that is the only way you could come to that conclusion. His entire contact profile changed this year, he pulled the ball more, made less soft contact than at any point in his career by noticeable amounts, and his strikeout rate dropped dramatically, both from his career norm and throughout the season. Avi is a player who I think will experience significant regression in 2018, but I expect to see positive regression in the power and walk numbers as much as I expect the negative average regression everyone is worried about. I wouldn't be surprised if those regressions offset and he became a 4 WAR player again next year with a much different statline.

We just said the same exact thing in different words.

Edited December 3, 2017 by hi8is

[Jack Parkman]

His batted ball profile isn't that different from 2015-16 so I don't know what you guys are talking about. His exit velocity went down too, from 104 to 90 mph last season so it wasn't like he was hitting the ball harder.

[hi8is]

His batted ball profile isn't that different from 2015-16 so I don't know what you guys are Dam8610 is talking about. His exit velocity went down too, from 104 to 90 mph last season so it wasn't like he was hitting the ball harder.

Fixed that for ya there... you may want to clarify with him as "you guys" does not equal the user Dam8610.

[Jack Parkman]

Fixed that for ya there... you may want to clarify with him as "you guys" does not equal the user Dam8610.

Yeah, He's like the biggest Avi Fan out there. I used to be, thinking that he had a chance to be late career Magglio Ordonez at his peak, but then I realized Avi just sucks.

[Dam8610]

His batted ball profile isn't that different from 2015-16 so I don't know what you guys are talking about. His exit velocity went down too, from 104 to 90 mph last season so it wasn't like he was hitting the ball harder.

 

That's not true at all. No one had an average exit velocity above 96 MPH in either of the last two seasons, and while you're correct that Avi's 2017 average exit velocity was 90.1 MPH, his 2016 average exit velocity was 90.2 MPH.

 

2017 data

 

2016 data