If you had to trade either Avi or Jose....

[Jose Abreu]

Don't forget to factor in the ball when you're comparing someone's 2017 stats to their 2016 stats. Avi isn't the only one who had a sudden outrageously good season. Scooter Gennett is another example. The ball is a factor

[Dam8610]

Don't forget to factor in the ball when you're comparing someone's 2017 stats to their 2016 stats. Avi isn't the only one who had a sudden outrageously good season. Scooter Gennett is another example. The ball is a factor

 

The ball has been juiced since the 2015 all star break.

[southsider2k5]

Don't forget to factor in the ball when you're comparing someone's 2017 stats to their 2016 stats. Avi isn't the only one who had a sudden outrageously good season. Scooter Gennett is another example. The ball is a factor

 

Why would it apply more to one player than the rest of baseball?

[Jose Abreu]

Why would it apply more to one player than the rest of baseball?

There are a lot of different theories for that question. One that can be defended somewhat easily is that every ball is different, and MLB only began using the juiced ball consistently very recently. It's possible that Avi just lucked out and got to hit against this ball more often than other players on other teams.

 

Another idea is that a player's approach and swing mechanics are simply better suited for one ball versus another, unintentionally. For example, if the league became a slow-pitch softball league, you obviously wouldn't have the same leaderboards for hitters- some hitters would have drastically improved stats, others just marginally improved, even with the same approach.

[Jose Abreu]

The ball has been juiced since the 2015 all star break.

Yes, but MLB only began consistently using the juiced ball in 2017 (see the link in my above post).

[Dam8610]

Yes, but MLB only began consistently using the juiced ball in 2017 (see the link in my above post).

 

1) More consistently (the standard deviation in balls has been dropping for a decade, as shown in your linked article)

 

2) The ball doesn't explain the significant reduction in his K rate or the increase in his walk rate in the second half.

[Jose Abreu]

1) More consistently (the standard deviation in balls has been dropping for a decade, as shown in your linked article)

 

2) The ball doesn't explain the significant reduction in his K rate or the increase in his walk rate in the second half.

I don't think that the ball is the sole reason for his improvement, nor do I think it's the biggest reason. I just wanted to point out that it is at least a factor. The walk rate/K rate changes are more likely just a better approach, or pitchers respecting him more.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Seems to me that your response qualifies more so for gobbledygook than CaliSoxFanViaSWside's original post. I partially wanted to point this out just because gobbledygook is oh so fun to say... so...

 

gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook.

 

gobbledygook!

 

GOBBLEDYGOOooooooooK!!!!!

I actually think he meant to quote your" wah wah wah " post rather than my" it's fun" post. Balta and me have actually been on the same side of the Avi argument and your post about wah wah came right after his on standard deviation.

Edited December 4, 2017 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Eminor3rd]

His batted ball profile isn't that different from 2015-16 so I don't know what you guys are talking about. His exit velocity went down too, from 104 to 90 mph last season so it wasn't like he was hitting the ball harder.

 

There ain't NO WAY Avi put up an average exit velocity of 104 mph at any point in his career.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Read the article I mentioned. His BABIP was driven by an unusually high batting average on ground balls. If it were driven by him actualling hitting more line drives that would be one thing, but a big chunk of those grounders will likely turn into outs next year. His BABIP will almost certainly fall by a good 40+ points next year and that’s going to radically impact his offensive production. If he doesn’t learn to get more loft, he’s suddenly a 2ish WAR OF and that assumes his defensive & baserunning improvements stick.

Here's an article from SSS about BABIP and if Avi really was lucky as some suggest . here is the conclusion but read the whole article to fully understand the data. https://www.southsidesox.com/2017/10/11/164...ir-side-in-2017

 

"It’s widely believed that Garcia’s .392 BABIP has fueled his stellar season. That’s true to a degree, but xwOBA doesn’t see him falling off all that hard. The .353 figure above still suggests he’s a very good hitter even without the fortuitous bounces. With his vastly improved defense in right field, Garcia looks the part of a well above-average player even when his luck comes back to earth."

 

It also says that ground balls go for hits 24% of the time while fly balls are 21% . Now this info was from 2014 so there is the caveat that with many more HR's during 2017 that fly balls produce a higher percentage now. Also that xwOBA doesn't take the players speed into consideration . Avi had many infield hits and his speed and hustle down the first base line no doubt was a factor so speed isn't really luck it's just part of a players skill set.

 

Now Avi no doubt caught a few infielders off guard with his improved speed and some of those hits were just a fielder taking his sweet time and Avi made them pay for it so those kind of hits most likely won't happen again. But overall when you take speed and xwOBA into consideration Avi was not as significantly lucky as many suggest.

Edited December 4, 2017 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Bob Sacamano]

Here's an article from SSS about BABIP and if Avi really was lucky as some suggest . here is the conclusion but read the whole article to fully understand the data. https://www.southsidesox.com/2017/10/11/164...ir-side-in-2017

 

"It’s widely believed that Garcia’s .392 BABIP has fueled his stellar season. That’s true to a degree, but xwOBA doesn’t see him falling off all that hard. The .353 figure above still suggests he’s a very good hitter even without the fortuitous bounces. With his vastly improved defense in right field, Garcia looks the part of a well above-average player even when his luck comes back to earth."

 

It also says that ground balls go for hits 24% of the time while fly balls are 21% . Now this info was from 2014 so there is the caveat that with many more HR's during 2017 that fly balls produce a higher percentage now. Also that xwOBA doesn't take the players speed into consideration . Avi had many infield hits and his speed and hustle down the first base line no doubt was a factor so speed isn't really luck it's just part of a players skill set.

 

Now Avi no doubt caught a few infielders off guard with his improved speed and some of those hits were just a fielder taking his sweet time and Avi made them pay for it so those kind of hits most likely won't happen again. But overall when you take speed and xwOBA into consideration Avi was not as significantly lucky as many suggest.

 

This is something that would worry me about a long-term deal. He's a big guy who has always run hard. At some point, he won't be quick anymore. I still need to see about another half a season before I want to extend him.

[Eminor3rd]

Here's an article from SSS about BABIP and if Avi really was lucky as some suggest . here is the conclusion but read the whole article to fully understand the data. https://www.southsidesox.com/2017/10/11/164...ir-side-in-2017

 

"It’s widely believed that Garcia’s .392 BABIP has fueled his stellar season. That’s true to a degree, but xwOBA doesn’t see him falling off all that hard. The .353 figure above still suggests he’s a very good hitter even without the fortuitous bounces. With his vastly improved defense in right field, Garcia looks the part of a well above-average player even when his luck comes back to earth."

 

It also says that ground balls go for hits 24% of the time while fly balls are 21% . Now this info was from 2014 so there is the caveat that with many more HR's during 2017 that fly balls produce a higher percentage now. Also that xwOBA doesn't take the players speed into consideration . Avi had many infield hits and his speed and hustle down the first base line no doubt was a factor so speed isn't really luck it's just part of a players skill set.

 

Now Avi no doubt caught a few infielders off guard with his improved speed and some of those hits were just a fielder taking his sweet time and Avi made them pay for it so those kind of hits most likely won't happen again. But overall when you take speed and xwOBA into consideration Avi was not as significantly lucky as many suggest.

 

League average wOBA for a RF is .330. If his best season should have been a .353, it doesn't take much regression to be league average. And a league average bat with bad but maybe improving defense in RF is a below average player.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I don't think that the ball is the sole reason for his improvement, nor do I think it's the biggest reason. I just wanted to point out that it is at least a factor. The walk rate/K rate changes are more likely just a better approach, or pitchers respecting him more.

You probably made more of an argument for Avi than against him with the juiced ball argument since Avi isn't known for being a fly ball hitter and the juiced ball definitely helped those who are with the record numbers of HR's hit. Sure Avi had a career high in HR's but certainly HR's did not play a significant factor in his batting average.

[steveno89]

This is something that would worry me about a long-term deal. He's a big guy who has always run hard. At some point, he won't be quick anymore. I still need to see about another half a season before I want to extend him.

 

Any potential extension would have to be for at least 2 free agent years, plus a likely option year at this point to make sense for Avi. I'm just not sure I want to commit to him for that long just yet.

 

The 2018/2019 free agent class is so loaded with talent, even if we miss out of the "top" free agents, the second and third tier still have a bunch of quality players. We would have to weigh the cost of Avi against free agents and our own farm.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/...e-agent-bonanza

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Any potential extension would have to be for at least 2 free agent years, plus a likely option year at this point to make sense for Avi. I'm just not sure I want to commit to him for that long just yet.

 

The 2018/2019 free agent class is so loaded with talent, even if we miss out of the "top" free agents, the second and third tier still have a bunch of quality players. We would have to weigh the cost of Avi against free agents and our own farm.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/...e-agent-bonanza

 

I'm honestly all for selling him now if a team believes that he is the player he was in 2017 going forward and buying him at that price. We shall see if that is realistic though.

Edited December 4, 2017 by soxfan2014

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

League average wOBA for a RF is .330. If his best season should have been a .353, it doesn't take much regression to be league average. And a league average bat with bad but maybe improving defense in RF is a below average player.

So you disagree with the whole premise that Avi wasn't significantly lucky last year ? Not sure you or maybe its me because you are certainly more in tune with stats than I am but I don't think that .353 figure you mentioned was a best season scenario , it's his expected xwOBA not wOBA based on his batted ball stats. His actual wOBA was .385. I hope you read the whole article.

Edited December 4, 2017 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

This is something that would worry me about a long-term deal. He's a big guy who has always run hard. At some point, he won't be quick anymore. I still need to see about another half a season before I want to extend him.

I think waiting for another half season is totally fair and open minded since even I have to admit one season isn't enough to justify an extension. I didn't think so with Tim Anderson and even if I have believed in Avi for years that doesn't trump common sense.

[Bob Sacamano]

I think waiting for another half season is totally fair and open minded since even I have to admit one season isn't enough to justify an extension. I didn't think so with Tim Anderson and even if I have believed in Avi for years that doesn't trump common sense.

 

Yeah. And who knows, if he hits like last season and he isn't interested in an extension, maybe a team out there will buy into his success and be willing to give you what you want for him.

[steveno89]

Yeah. And who knows, if he hits like last season and he isn't interested in an extension, maybe a team out there will buy into his success and be willing to give you what you want for him.

 

I have the feeling that the front office would love to unload both Avi and Abreu during this offseason if possible. As a rebuilding club we really should be looking to deal assets not under long term control and be building our contender.

 

Expensive extensions do not fit into what we are trying to do, and if Avi has a bad start to 2018 we lose whatever value we could have gotten for him. Abreu/Avi should have interest on the trade market since they are a much shorter commitment and lower cost than free agency. It comes down to admitting that 2019 is likely best seen as another rebuilding season, vs. a legitimate chance of contention.

[Eminor3rd]

So you disagree with the whole premise that Avi wasn't significantly lucky last year ? Not sure you or maybe its me because you are certainly more in tune with stats than I am but I don't think that .353 figure you mentioned was a best season scenario , it's his expected xwOBA not wOBA based on his batted ball stats. His actual wOBA was .385. I hope you read the whole article.

 

I did read the whole article, back when it came out. He was definitely significantly lucky, and you (and the article) addressed the luck component.

 

My point is that you DIDN'T address the regression component. Whenever anyone has a breakout/career outlier season, the most likely thing to follow is regression toward career averages, simply by definition of it being an outlier season. Even if Avisail actually and sustainably improved, he's still likely to regress. And if the "improvement" was to a tune of a .353 wOBA, there isn't a ton of room for regression before he's league average.

 

Which, keep in mind, is still a huge improvement over what he's been, but it isn't worth extending at market rates and it isn't worth potentially sacrificing a decent return in year two of a rebuild.

[Bob Sacamano]

I have the feeling that the front office would love to unload both Avi and Abreu during this offseason if possible. As a rebuilding club we really should be looking to deal assets not under long term control and be building our contender.

 

Expensive extensions do not fit into what we are trying to do, and if Avi has a bad start to 2018 we lose whatever value we could have gotten for him. Abreu/Avi should have interest on the trade market since they are a much shorter commitment and lower cost than free agency. It comes down to admitting that 2019 is likely best seen as another rebuilding season, vs. a legitimate chance of contention.

 

Next week should be fun.

[steveno89]

Next week should be fun.

 

I think so.

 

I think the plan all along has been to tear the previous club down to build a cost controlled and talented young core. Then we supplement that core with key free agent additions to fill gaps.

 

When envisioning our 2020+ proverbial contender I just have a suspicion that Avi/Abreu are not part of that picture for the front office.

 

Abreu is a good clubhouse guy and leader, but I don't think we need to pay him $40 million or so over the next two seasons for him to babysit a 90+ loss team. Same goes for Avi.

[tray]

How many players hit .330 over the course of an entire season during any time in their career? There is a lot of skepticism that is not tied to reality - reality in this case being a player who has improved his plate discipline, has lost a lot of weight and has greatly improved his physical conditioning. He looks quicker and no doubt has more flexibility with the weight ;loss. In addition, he has effectively countered the strategy of pitching him low outside pitches by anticipating those pitches and taking them to right field. I see a progression in Avi's power numbers when pitchers start abandoning that strategy and try to get him out on the inside part of the plate more.

I would not trade Avi unless a no-miss blue chip prospect is included plus one or two more highly rated prospects.

This guy is a stud...one of the best hitters in the league and he might only get better adding power numbers.

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I did read the whole article, back when it came out. He was definitely significantly lucky, and you (and the article) addressed the luck component.

 

My point is that you DIDN'T address the regression component. Whenever anyone has a breakout/career outlier season, the most likely thing to follow is regression toward career averages, simply by definition of it being an outlier season. Even if Avisail actually and sustainably improved, he's still likely to regress. And if the "improvement" was to a tune of a .353 wOBA, there isn't a ton of room for regression before he's league average.

 

Which, keep in mind, is still a huge improvement over what he's been, but it isn't worth extending at market rates and it isn't worth potentially sacrificing a decent return in year two of a rebuild.

You keep saying a .353 wOBA but it was .385 . The .353 is xwOBA and the article says the difference between the two is not overly high enough to say the luck factor was as significant as just looking at BABIP might suggest.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

How many players hit .330 over the course of an entire season during any time in their career? There is a lot of skepticism that is not tied to reality - reality in this case being a player who has improved his plate discipline, has lost a lot of weight and has greatly improved his physical conditioning. He looks quicker and no doubt has more flexibility with the weight ;loss. In addition, he has effectively countered the strategy of pitching him low outside pitches by anticipating those pitches and taking them to right field. I see a progression in Avi's power numbers when pitchers start abandoning that strategy and try to get him out on the inside part of the plate more.

I would not trade Avi unless a no-miss blue chip prospect is included plus one or two more highly rated prospects.

This guy is a stud...one of the best hitters in the league and he might only get better adding power numbers.

I don't like to argue against anyone who is pro-Avi but he has always had a knack for going to right field. I always thought pitching him inside was a better strategy. He has a tendency to lean toward the plate on his swing and his hand injuries have come because of getting hit by pitches because of that "lean" and although some others have pointed that he pulled the ball more I just haven't seen enough of it to think he can handle inside pitches well yet. He hits well enough to left center but to really become a power hitter he'll have to do much better lifting and pulling and that will be a bigger challenge to him than continuing going to right field .

 

I wouldn't call him a stud , just a guy who made strides to improve himself that paid off for 1 season. That is fair as much as those who write him off because of luck is unfair. There will be regression. it's a matter of how much regression we have been debating.