Winter Meetings 2017

[Chicago White Sox]

I'd guess you'd get a Melky Cabrera sort of return. So yeah, B-, C Prosects

4 years of Sanchez >>>>>>>>>> 2 months of old ass Melky

Edited December 12, 2017 by Chicago White Sox

[username]

I think people are vastly underrating a potential Yolmer return. Guy plays some of the best defense in baseball at multiple positions, and is young with 4 years of control left. He graded out equal to Javy Baez last year in terms of fWAR (playing superior defense) and wasn’t far behind with the bat.

 

And while his ML track record of hitting isn’t long, he was a very good minor league hitter despite being aggressively promoted and young for each level. Nothing in his advanced metrics from this year scream regression, and I personally think he could develop some more pop as he ages. His batted ball splits actually suggest he elevates it enough to keep hitting for power.

[Chicago White Sox]

His current projections plug him in at 1.2 WAR/600, but that's also taking into account his previous replacement level seasons. Assuming the breakthrough was real, and I don't see much to think that it wasn't, there's no reason he couldn't be viewed or sold as a 2-2.5 WAR player moving forward. Over the next 4 years, that puts his value around $70 million for which he will probably be paid something like $24 mill ($500K 2018, $5.5 mill 2019, $8 mill 2020, $10 mill 2021), which provides $46 million of surplus value. A 55 FV prospect is worth about $40 million.

 

I am admittedly grasping at straws here, but I don't see something along those lines as an impossibility, and if you acquire Frazier, then it opens the door for an Avisail Garcia trade immediately, even if you have to take a slight discount on his overall value.

I came up with a very similar valuation for Sanchez, again which is contingent on believing Yolmer is a 2.5ish WAR player going forward. If you can get a 55 FV prospect for him I think you take the offer and run. I love me some Sanchez, but this early in the rebuild we should gambling on high ceiling players rather than floor.

[Balta1701]

I came up with a very similar valuation for Sanchez, again which is contingent on believing Yolmer is a 2.5ish WAR player going forward. If you can get a 55 FV prospect for him I think you take the offer and run. I love me some Sanchez, but this early in the rebuild we should gambling on high ceiling players rather than floor.

I don't know how to translate the units FV into anything meaningful to me. Can you clarify? Add a player comp?

[Bob Sacamano]

Meetings are so slow this year. Us baseball fans were spoiled that one year when there was like 20 trades (or close to it).

[Sockin]

I just cant imagine we make an Abreu or Garcia trade. I think all the teams that would be interested on waiting to see what Hosmer/Santana/Martinez do.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I don't know how to translate the units FV into anything meaningful to me. Can you clarify? Add a player comp?

 

that's essentially a top 100 prospect,.. Which Yolmer is not worth that

[Balta1701]

that's essentially a top 100 prospect,.. Which Yolmer is not worth that

TY.

 

That's kind of what I meant by saying "We would need to get fair value for this guy to move him", and yea I agree it's unlikely that teams would give up that kind of value for him.

[witesoxfan]

If teams aren't willing to trade a 55 FV player for Yolmer, then Yolmer is going to remain on the White Sox, which is just fine.

[southsider2k5]

Link

 

The scuttle seems to be that Blash will eventually get waived. Don't forget the White Sox did draft and try to sign Blash. Might be a future waiver claim looking down the road.

[Bob Sacamano]

So the Padres take on Headley and most of his salary to take on Bryan Mitchell?

Edited December 12, 2017 by soxfan2014

[OmarComing25]

Both Cameron and Sawchik on Fangraphs mentioned us as a possible trade partner for the Yankees to dump Ellsbury to buy a prospect like Frazier or Sheffield. Not that big a fan of that idea however.

 

EDIT: Didn't see that this idea was already posted in the Frazier thread.

Edited December 12, 2017 by OmarComing25

[Bob Sacamano]

Both Cameron and Sawchik on Fangraphs mentioned us as a possible trade partner for the Yankees to dump Ellsbury to buy a prospect like Frazier or Sheffield. Not that big a fan of that idea however.

 

I did look back at his contract and see that it is about $21 million each year (I initially thought it was like $25) for the next 3 years. I feel like if they offered one of those guys, I would probably take it and then play Ellsbury and hope he can do well enough to dump most of his salary. You would have to think he's worth close to at least half his salary.

Edited December 12, 2017 by soxfan2014

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Both Cameron and Sawchik on Fangraphs mentioned us as a possible trade partner for the Yankees to dump Ellsbury to buy a prospect like Frazier or Sheffield. Not that big a fan of that idea however.

 

EDIT: Didn't see that this idea was already posted in the Frazier thread.

 

I would take him on if it means getting a nice prospect like Frazier or Sheffield and SOME cash relief. Maybe like $15M thrown in. He has 3 years left on his deal, but money shouldn't be an issue any of those years.

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I would take him on if it means getting a nice prospect like Frazier or Sheffield and SOME cash relief. Maybe like $15M thrown in. He has 3 years left on his deal, but money shouldn't be an issue any of those years.

 

I can't see the Yankees dealing one of those guys if they aren't clearing the entire salary. I would think they would be better off using Frazier in a deal for a pitcher.

[Balta1701]

I did look back at his contract and see that it is about $21 million each year (I initially thought it was like $25) for the next 3 years. I feel like if they offered one of those guys, I would probably take it and then play Ellsbury and hope he can do well enough to dump most of his salary. You would have to think he's worth close to at least half his salary.

What makes the White Sox better long term, playing someone like Engel or Polo in CF and someone like Delmonico at LF/DH, or playing Ellsbury and hoping he recovers enough value to be tradeable at some point?

 

If we were going to take on an Ellsbury and do anything other than dump him, I'd only want to do it if Garcia was moved. That clears a spot where now we can do Ellsbury and Delmonico both in the lineup regularly and there's still room for the beast.

[bmags]

While I'd love to be a part of it, I don't see a scenario where Ellsbury waives NTC to go to us unless strictly playing time is the most important thing.

[southsider2k5]

What makes the White Sox better long term, playing someone like Engel or Polo in CF and someone like Delmonico at LF/DH, or playing Ellsbury and hoping he recovers enough value to be tradeable at some point?

 

If we were going to take on an Ellsbury and do anything other than dump him, I'd only want to do it if Garcia was moved. That clears a spot where now we can do Ellsbury and Delmonico both in the lineup regularly and there's still room for the beast.

 

We would take on Ellsbury to get ahold of another player from the Yankees system. We'd buy a prospect just like the Padres did with Headley.

[Balta1701]

We would take on Ellsbury to get ahold of another player from the Yankees system. We'd buy a prospect just like the Padres did with Headley.

I understand that, but the post I was replying to talked about Ellsbury being worth about 1/2 his deal. He might well perform like a 1.5 win player each of the next 3 years and that's a tolerable CF, but if that takes playing time away from someone who could develop into a big leaguer that hurts us in a different way. There's a cost associated with us giving him playing time when we could be developing a useful piece of our own.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I understand that, but the post I was replying to talked about Ellsbury being worth about 1/2 his deal. He might well perform like a 1.5 win player each of the next 3 years and that's a tolerable CF, but if that takes playing time away from someone who could develop into a big leaguer that hurts us in a different way. There's a cost associated with us giving him playing time when we could be developing a useful piece of our own.

 

Don't forget we'd get a good prospect back (presumably). Who could we realistically expect if such a crazy thing happened?

[Balta1701]

Don't forget we'd get a good prospect back (presumably). Who could we realistically expect if such a crazy thing happened?

We spent what, $25 million on Robert and gave up the ability to sign a top flight international player for 2 years and the "over the limit" signing penalty? For Ellsbury we'd be taking on $63 million, so way more money than Robert although no signing penalty? Basically it has to be someone who is comparable to Robert, if not better, since most of that $63 million is valueless to us. We're talking Frazier or Torres or someone at the very top of the Yankees system who can step in and be an all star by 2020.

[BlackSox13]

Cardinals are looking like early birds for Ozuna.

[GenericUserName]

While I'd love to be a part of it, I don't see a scenario where Ellsbury waives NTC to go to us unless strictly playing time is the most important thing.

Maybe you can convince him that we would flip him to a contender at the deadline if he plays well (which we would probably do anyway). He would get actual playing time and would be on a contenting team come playoff time.

 

I also wonder if it would be possible to have the Yankees pay down his buyout if it is exercised. Don't make them pay down the first few years, but send $4mil for the last year if he is bought out, maybe a little more if not. It would clear their books for the next few years and would only put a little money on the books in the future when the luxury tax is higher while also limiting risk for whatever team is taking him on.

[ChiSoxJon]

If Machado wants to be a full time SS should we pursue someone else? Arenado? Donaldson is already in decline

[Dam8610]

If Machado wants to be a full time SS should we pursue someone else? Arenado? Donaldson is already in decline

 

I don't think so. He plays a good 3B, and if Anderson falls, Gives you a great backup plan at SS. At that point you go get an Arenado or Donaldson.