Brewers Acquire Christian Yelich & sign Lorenzo Cain

[caulfield12]

Yes. Cease + Rutherford + another big piece that isn't our top 4. Literally anybody from Anderson to Burger to Giolito to Lopez.

 

I don't think the Marlins are going to get the return they are seeking. We were extremely lucky with what Hahn pulled off.

 

I may be wrong, but I highly doubt they get Acuna or Hansen types. I think they settle for 3-4 pieces. 1 MLB ready player (Lopez, Anderson) . 2 that are very strong prospects (Cease and Rutheford type) and then a throw in (Adolfo type).

 

That's my personal guess.

 

Why would we be dumping our starting SS at we’ll below his max value?

 

To play who there, Leury Garcia? You want to pay top value to Andrus for this year? Yolmer? You have seen Anderson’s offensive and defensive numbers the last two months, yes?

Edited January 21, 2018 by caulfield12

[steveno89]

Why would we be dumping our starting SS at we’ll below his max value?

 

To play who there, Leury Garcia? You want to pay top value to Andrus for this year? Yolmer? You have seen Anderson’s offensive and defensive numbers the last two months, yes?

 

Even though his 2016 was rough, Anderson is not going anywhere right now. The Sox do not have any other SS prospect that is remotely close to the majors.

[he gone.]

Why would we be dumping our starting SS at we’ll below his max value?

 

To play who there, Leury Garcia? You want to pay top value to Andrus for this year? Yolmer? You have seen Anderson’s offensive and defensive numbers the last two months, yes?

 

You can't cherry pick a few months here and there. If you did that you could cherry pick Fulmer's 4 good starts. I just go by what I've seen over time and to me? That's a very average SS. Maybe he puts it together, but I think its more likely at this point that by 2020-2022 when we are hopefully really pushing for a WS that Anderson will either be a bench piece, not on the team, or our #9 hitter and the weakest link on the team. Just my opinion.

 

Nothing makes me more or less qualified than you and your opinion - just don't think Anderson is a "special" player.

 

 

 

[Sockin]

https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/955907465538822144

 

@CraigMish: Source : Brewers have put together a trade offer & have shown strong interest Marlins OF Christian Yelich. Other teams remain in the mix.

 

Wonder if this is the trade Crasnick hear was coming?

Edited January 23, 2018 by Sockin

[knightni]

https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/955907465538822144

 

@CraigMish: Source : Brewers have put together a trade offer & have shown strong interest Marlins OF Christian Yelich. Other teams remain in the mix.

 

Wonder if this is the trade Crasnick hear was coming?

Related to the mystery Sox Brewers trade talk?

 

They either couldn't reach a deal with Hahn or it could be a three way deal.

[Bob Sacamano]

Related to the mystery Sox Brewers trade talk?

 

They either couldn't reach a deal with Hahn or it could be a three way deal.

 

They meaning who? I feel like Sox talking with Brewers is being way overblown here.

[GreenSox]

Yes. Cease + Rutherford + another big piece that isn't our top 4. Literally anybody from Anderson to Burger to Giolito to Lopez.

Heck I would trade that package for him (although not Anderson and preferably not Giolito/hansen).

 

Although not Yelich related, I wonder what the cost of those 2nd tier pitchers- Lynn or Cobb? I think the Sox could use one of those mid-rotation guys for insurance/stabilization purposes.

Edited January 24, 2018 by GreenSox

[GenericUserName]

Checking out the Brewers message board again and their insider, who they all seem to believe is very credible, is saying the Marlins are gathering final offers for Yelich and the trade could be happening soon. He says the Brewers have a 95% of landing him, but the Braves, White Sox, Padres and Nationals are also in it with the Braves being the biggest threat. He said he doesn't think we offered Eloy or the Braves offered Acuna, but the Nats may have offered Robles.

[caulfield12]

Well, the Nats desperately need him for this year...and also to "sell" Harper, if they have any chance at all, on staying in the Washington market.

 

 

[caulfield12]

You can't cherry pick a few months here and there. If you did that you could cherry pick Fulmer's 4 good starts. I just go by what I've seen over time and to me? That's a very average SS. Maybe he puts it together, but I think its more likely at this point that by 2020-2022 when we are hopefully really pushing for a WS that Anderson will either be a bench piece, not on the team, or our #9 hitter and the weakest link on the team. Just my opinion.

 

Nothing makes me more or less qualified than you and your opinion - just don't think Anderson is a "special" player.

 

 

Well, there's three pieces of information to consider:

 

1) Anderson's 2016 season

2) The death of his best friend and his reaction in the 1st half to that event

3) A marked increase in his offensive numbers and significant improvement on the defensive side (still led MLB in errors at SS, overall)

 

He could be the next Mike Caruso, for all we know...but, for us to really be a strong playoff team, we can't keep going out and replacing all the positions on the field with veteran FA's at 3B (Machado, Donaldson, Arenado), SS (Andrus this year) and catcher. It doesn't really matter what we think, because he's going to have all of 2018 to play and probably half of the 2019 season as well before they would even consider moving to another option.

 

There are also zero candidates, other than Leury Garcia, to replace him. Saladino and Yolmer would be stopgaps.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Checking out the Brewers message board again and their insider, who they all seem to believe is very credible, is saying the Marlins are gathering final offers for Yelich and the trade could be happening soon. He says the Brewers have a 95% of landing him, but the Braves, White Sox, Padres and Nationals are also in it with the Braves being the biggest threat. He said he doesn't think we offered Eloy or the Braves offered Acuna, but the Nats may have offered Robles.

 

 

This is his post:

 

And the Braves, White Sox, Padres and Nationals are the reason it's not 100%. With the Braves being the biggest threat.

 

Plus I know the Brewers offer. And no I'm not telling anyone here or even giving the SLIGHTEST hints. That gets some people in trouble if you know what I mean.

 

Be ready though...... It's gonna sting a little bit.

[Chicago White Sox]

I’ll keep repeating it, thanks but no thanks. If Acuna or Brinson is actually involved, then let’s end the discussion right now. Giving up that caliber of a prospect at this point in our rebuild (plus more) would be insanity. Marlins aren’t taking our secondary pieces for Yelich.

[fathom]

This is his post:

 

And the Braves, White Sox, Padres and Nationals are the reason it's not 100%. With the Braves being the biggest threat.

 

Plus I know the Brewers offer. And no I'm not telling anyone here or even giving the SLIGHTEST hints. That gets some people in trouble if you know what I mean.

 

Be ready though...... It's gonna sting a little bit.

 

Yep no thanks. I think with the recent prospect rankings, it's illustrated how the Sox are strongest at RHP and outfield as of now. Also have read that Yelich graded out poorly in CF on defense.

[GenericUserName]

I’ll keep repeating it, thanks but no thanks. If Acuna or Brinson is actually involved, then let’s end the discussion right now. Giving up that caliber of a prospect at this point in our rebuild (plus more) would be insanity. Marlins aren’t taking our secondary pieces for Yelich.

I'm actually slightly encouraged. He said the Braves wouldn't give up Acuna, so if the Nats also don't give up Robles, the prospect value is lower. I think people are down on Brinson because he struggled in the majors. The Brewers fan were more concerned about Monte Harrison and the insider said Josh Hader was untouchable. If Brinson isn't viewed as good and he is leading the package, maybe we could get by with an offer based around Rutherford + Cease ++ if we take back some contracts. Thats something that we have over the Braves, Brewers, and Nats, though not over the Padres probably.

Edited January 24, 2018 by GenericUserName

[Heads22]

The Marlins aren’t going to give him up for anything that would make sense for us. And that’s fine.

[Chicago White Sox]

I'm actually slightly encouraged. He said the Braves wouldn't give up Acuna, so if the Nats also don't give up Robles, the prospect value is lower. I think people are down on Brinson because he struggled in the majors. The Brewers fan were more concerned about Monte Harrison and the insider said Josh Hader was untouchable. If Brinson isn't viewed as good and he is leading the package, maybe we could get by with an offer based around Rutherford + Cease ++ if we take back some contracts. Thats something that we have over the Braves, Brewers, and Nats, though not over the Padres probably.

The problem is even if you’re down in on Brinson a bit, he’s still a top 40 to 50 prospect. Rutherford has seen his stock plummet and Cease has huge question marks. Those two combined are worth far less than Yelich IMO are not headlining a trade for Yelich. Still think we’d have to add Hansen with those other two to have any shot and I don’t think that would be wise for us. We’re simply not as deep as we’d like to think we are. Let’s hold the prospects for one more year, try to sign some free agents to fill holes first, and then consider a move like this once we have a better idea what we have/need.

Edited January 24, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Balta1701]

The problem is even if you’re down in on Brinson a bit, he’s still a top 40 to 50 prospect. Rutherford has seen his stock plummet and Cease has huge question marks. Those two combined are worth far less than Yelich IMO are not headlining a trade for Yelich. Still think we’d have to add Hansen with those other two to have any shot and I don’t think that would be wise for us. We’re simply not as deep as we’d like to think we are. Let’s hold the prospects for one more year, try to sign some free agents to fill holes first, and then consider a move like this once we have a better idea what we have/need.

If the White Sox "Aren't as deep as we'd like to think we are", that points to a much larger problem. There is a ton of 2nd tier talent in this organization: Cease, Collins, Rutherford, Burger, Adams, Adolfo, some of the other guys down in A-ball, the other catchers. I don't think all of these guys are going to have breakout years next year, but there's so much talent in that range that some of them should. If all of these guys flop, that's a sign of a much more serious issue - that we still haven't fixed either the player development or the player scouting issues that plagued us for the last decade.

[Eminor3rd]

Look at it this way: last year, we traded Adam Eaton (a young, cost-controlled OF) for three prospects. We did this beause we didn't have enough good players to compete, so we needed to take the chance to turn one good player into MORE THAN ONE good player. What good would it do, a year later, to trade 3-4 prospects for Christian Yelich (a different young, cost-controlled OF) when the MLB team is WORSE than before? Yelich is younger and better than Eaton, but not substantially. Does keeping Eaton throught the rebuild instead of trading him make sense? If the answer is no, then trading for Yelich doesn't really make sense either.

 

There will be a time where trading for guys is the right move, but we have to have some of these prospects turn into MLB guys first, because until that happens, we still need the prospects.

[he gone.]

Look at it this way: last year, we traded Adam Eaton (a young, cost-controlled OF) for three prospects. We did this beause we didn't have enough good players to compete, so we needed to take the chance to turn one good player into MORE THAN ONE good player. What good would it do, a year later, to trade 3-4 prospects for Christian Yelich (a different young, cost-controlled OF) when the MLB team is WORSE than before? Yelich is younger and better than Eaton, but not substantially. Does keeping Eaton throught the rebuild instead of trading him make sense? If the answer is no, then trading for Yelich doesn't really make sense either.

 

There will be a time where trading for guys is the right move, but we have to have some of these prospects turn into MLB guys first, because until that happens, we still need the prospects.

 

True and not true. I get where you are coming from. However at the same time, at that point we didn't have Eloy, Robert, our whole draft class and our position in this years draft. Not to mention Rutherford, Cease, etc. etc.

 

I definitely agree you don't give up a top 4 guy (Eloy, Hansen, Robert, kopech) but if you can get it done for the right pieces? I'd pull the trigger. We're not as far away from winning as we may think and getting a Yelich doesn't preclude us from going out and spending big on a FA next year which is the added bonus to me.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

If the White Sox "Aren't as deep as we'd like to think we are", that points to a much larger problem. There is a ton of 2nd tier talent in this organization: Cease, Collins, Rutherford, Burger, Adams, Adolfo, some of the other guys down in A-ball, the other catchers. I don't think all of these guys are going to have breakout years next year, but there's so much talent in that range that some of them should. If all of these guys flop, that's a sign of a much more serious issue - that we still haven't fixed either the player development or the player scouting issues that plagued us for the last decade.

The best proxy for the strength of any given farm system is looking at how many 50+ FV prospects they have. How many of those do you think we have right now?

 

If you exclude Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, & Fulmer, we have four guys remaining who met this criteria last year per Longenhagen:

 

1. Jimenez, 60

2. Kopech, 55

3. Rutherford, 55

4. Collins, 50

5. Burdi, 50

 

My guess is Rutherford & Burdi fall to 45's, which would leave just three holdovers.

 

The question then becomes how many guys will join the list after 2017? Here are my guesses with predicted FVs:

 

1. Hansen, 55

2. Robert, 55

3. Dunning, 50

4. Burger, 50

 

Cease was a 45 last year and I don't see him making the jump. Sheets will probably be a 45. Same goes for Adolfo & Adams.

 

So in summary that's only 7 50+ FV players. That's not horrible, but the deeper systems have closer to 10 from what I've seen. Again, this is simply a good proxy to measure the strength of the farm system. The fact we have two guys that should be in the 60 to 70 FV range (Eloy & Kopech) and a guy that could join them in a half season (Robert) needs to be taken into consideration. But the flip side of the coin is how many guys in our system have a legitimate change of becoming 50+ FV prospects by the end of next season? That's the real concern IMO as I'd only probably put it around five to seven (Rutherford, Cease, Sheets, Burdi, Adolfo, & maybe Basabe or Curbelo). If you look at other high-end systems, I bet you they have many more guys who could conceivably make that jump. Unfortunately, our system lacks the high-school & LatAm talents that can radically improve their future value in a year.

Edited January 24, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Eminor3rd]

True and not true. I get where you are coming from. However at the same time, at that point we didn't have Eloy, Robert, our whole draft class and our position in this years draft. Not to mention Rutherford, Cease, etc. etc.

 

I definitely agree you don't give up a top 4 guy (Eloy, Hansen, Robert, kopech) but if you can get it done for the right pieces? I'd pull the trigger. We're not as far away from winning as we may think and getting a Yelich doesn't preclude us from going out and spending big on a FA next year which is the added bonus to me.

 

Correct, but we DID have Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, etc. The system is no doubt better, but we don't have the MLB core anymore. The system has to first replenish the value we traded and THEN add more for us to be a contender. It only works out if the trades yield more guys than they cost us initially. I'm not saying it won't, but we have to let it do it's work to see what we "have" first -- and that part is a numbers game.

 

Now, the reason Hahn is kicking tires is because you have to find out if the Marlins are going to trade him for less than he's worth, in which case of course we should get him. But given the sheer number of teams that have been connected, they're clearly not going to have to trade him for a discount.

Edited January 24, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[bmags]

I do personally think it would be more fair to gauge this at mid-year considering 3 of those types of guys just graduated and another we are saying fell off just due to an injury.

[bmags]

Correct, but we DID have Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, etc. The system is no doubt better, but we don't have the MLB core anymore. The system has to first replenish the value we traded and THEN add more for us to be a contender. It only works out if the trades yield more guys than they cost us initially. I'm not saying it won't, but we have to let it do it's work to see what we "have" first -- and that part is a numbers game.

 

Now, the reason Hahn is kicking tires is because you have to find out if the Marlins are going to trade him for less than he's worth, in which case of course we should get him. But given the sheer number of teams that have been connected, they're clearly not going to have to trade him for a discount.

 

I agree with this. I would just want to get to more definition on what's needed.

 

Maybe we miraculously hit home runs with all of our OF prospects but all of our infield turns out to be trash. That's a realistic scenario now. We also may need every one of those pitching prospects to form only a decent rotation.

[steveno89]

I agree with this. I would just want to get to more definition on what's needed.

 

Maybe we miraculously hit home runs with all of our OF prospects but all of our infield turns out to be trash. That's a realistic scenario now. We also may need every one of those pitching prospects to form only a decent rotation.

 

We could fills gaps with a few key free agent signings^

 

We don't need to hit on every prospect, but our key guys need to pan out and produce

 

 

[bmags]

We could fills gaps with a few key free agent signings^

 

We don't need to hit on every prospect, but our key guys need to pan out and produce

 

We could, but, I'd much rather try to plug FA gaps at places like the corners than up the middle, or relief pitching than starting.

 

We'll need to fill gaps via trade too, so it will be better to have a definition of needs.