Brewers Acquire Christian Yelich & sign Lorenzo Cain

[Soxnfins]

With living right by Miller Park & attending & watching quite a few Brewers games, I just see buyer beware written all over Domingo Santana. Sterns is smart to shop him while the iron on him is still hot.

[Bob Sacamano]

Do we see a deal for Archer for Santana and Broxton and a pitching prospect or two coming soon? (Yes, I get that Archer also has 4 years, but the Rays are a team that usually retools on the fly and 4 years of a guy like Santana can be valuable to them, especially with other pieces coming over).

Edited January 26, 2018 by soxfan2014

[Y2Jimmy0]

Do we see a deal for Archer for Santana and Broxton and a pitching prospect or two coming soon? (Yes, I get that Archer also has 4 years, but the Rays are a team that usually retools on the fly and 4 years of a guy like Santana can be valuable to them, especially with other pieces coming over).

 

 

I don't think they have the pieces for Archer. We could see Santana for Danny Salazar though.

[GreenSox]

He’s basically another version of Avi, but with more proven power.

 

A bit out of date...

Santana has primarily played right field in the major leagues, starting there in 508 of 592 games. Santana is a big guy, standing at 6'5" and 225 pounds, which fits his power. Right now, however, it's difficult to see where he might fit on the Brewers barring more deals. He's not a center fielder and right field is occupied by Ryan Braun and the Brewers have a somewhat similar player in Khris Davis in left field. Dominguez has never played first base so it's unlikely the Brewers would try to move him there.

 

But the Brewers don't need to fit him in right away. They can always see what happens the rest of this season and next spring and see if/when he's deserving of another shot at the big leagues. Santana has a strong enough arm for right field if that's where he lands. His defense isn't anything to write home about, but it's not bad either.

Brewcrewball.com

Avi's fangraphs defensive ratings are below par, but Santana's are awful. As for arm, Santana had 4 assists last year while Avi had 13.

Santana looks similar to Evan Gattis to me.

Edited January 26, 2018 by GreenSox

[Dominikk85]

Good deal for both sides. My math has yelich at a surplus value of 120m and the prospect package being worth around 110m. No haul for the Marlins but also no rip off. Pretty even value deal, the time of 50m plus surplus value deals is over, the teams now know what they do.

[Chicago White Sox]

I wouldn't think the Sox would be interested in Santana unless he can play a good 1B and they move Abreu. They just can't put a defender like that in the OF this early in the buildup. He might actually be an interesting pickup for Boston.

Broxton might be palatable on the buy-low side.

As for moving Yolmer, perhaps, but the Sox aren't exactly loaded with Middle Infield prospects (or 3B for that matter).

You obviously don’t move Yolmer unless you get value for him. His versatility is useful given some of the uncertainty on the left side of the IF. But I really think we need to keep trading our shorter-term assets for more controllable talent. We have a nice young core starting to take shape and a ton of financial flexibility, but we definitely need more prospect depth IMO. As much as I love what Sanchez brings to the table, we should be able to buy a 2 WAR 3B with just money if not something far better with Machado, Donaldson, & Arenado all coming up for free agency in the coming years.

 

I love what Milwaukee was able to do here in trading prospects for a cost-controlled star, signing a good veteran OF, and setting themselves up for a Santana for SP trade. This only works because they had a solid core in place PLUS prospect depth. I think we’re poised to do something similar in a year or two, but far more effectively because we have what could be a great pitching core (Rodon, Kopech, Giolito, Hansen, Lopez, Dunning, Burdi, etc.) & multiple potential positional stars (Moncada, Jimenez, Robert) in place. If we can maintain a certain level of prospect depth, I think we can be positioned to add a Yelich type talent (along with a couple big free agents) without blowing our entire prospect wad. And that’s important if we’re hoping for “sustained success” as Hahn has alluded to time and again.

[Chicago White Sox]

Good deal for both sides. My math has yelich at a surplus value of 120m and the prospect package being worth around 110m. No haul for the Marlins but also no rip off. Pretty even value deal, the time of 50m plus surplus value deals is over, the teams now know what they do.

Might sharing your math here? Always interested in how people calc projected surplus value for prospects. Is it simply based on whether they’re a pitcher or a position player and their current FV score?

[bmags]

Balta has talked about using our playing time as an asset to find undervalued talent, that was the role the Brewers played. 2016 they picked up tons of near major talent and gave them playing time.

 

This trade was also a great example of why to wait until you are closer to knowing. When brewers had a clear surplus they were able to trade for an elite, cost controlled talent, not just an upgrade.

 

That's what I'd like us to do, use surplus for elite upgrades, not just filling 0 war with 2 war vets.

[Balta1701]

Balta has talked about using our playing time as an asset to find undervalued talent, that was the role the Brewers played. 2016 they picked up tons of near major talent and gave them playing time.

 

This trade was also a great example of why to wait until you are closer to knowing. When brewers had a clear surplus they were able to trade for an elite, cost controlled talent, not just an upgrade.

 

That's what I'd like us to do, use surplus for elite upgrades, not just filling 0 war with 2 war vets.

Thanks!

[GreenSox]

Balta has talked about using our playing time as an asset to find undervalued talent, that was the role the Brewers played. 2016 they picked up tons of near major talent and gave them playing time.

 

This trade was also a great example of why to wait until you are closer to knowing. When brewers had a clear surplus they were able to trade for an elite, cost controlled talent, not just an upgrade.

 

That's what I'd like us to do, use surplus for elite upgrades, not just filling 0 war with 2 war vets.

Amen!

[Chicago White Sox]

Balta has talked about using our playing time as an asset to find undervalued talent, that was the role the Brewers played. 2016 they picked up tons of near major talent and gave them playing time.

 

This trade was also a great example of why to wait until you are closer to knowing. When brewers had a clear surplus they were able to trade for an elite, cost controlled talent, not just an upgrade.

 

That's what I'd like us to do, use surplus for elite upgrades, not just filling 0 war with 2 war vets.

I mean, we’re pretty much going to do the same thing. Look at some of the guys we’ll be trotting out in 2017:

 

3B: Yolmer Sanchez (2.1 WAR, 534 PA’s)

CF: Leury Garcia (1.1 WAR, 326 PA’s)

LF: Nicky Delmonico (1.0 WAR, 166 PA’s)

 

2017 is a perfect opportunity to give all those guys 600 PA’s and see what happens. If they can maintain 2 to 3 WAR production next year, they can fill supporting roles in the rebuild or be moved for additional talent. DH is the only spot I’m not overly excited about how we’re using at the moment.

[Balta1701]

DH is the only spot I’m not overly excited about how we’re using at the moment.

I am somewhat interested to see Davidson get more ABs after his season last year - the power we knew he had came through but in the minors he always was a better OBP guy than what we saw last year, and that's the thing preventing him from being a useful DH right now, doing what he did in the minors.

 

And anyway, unless Garcia is traded, Delmonico or Cordell or whoever else will shift over to the DH spot when the mutant corner OF comes up from the minors mid-season.

[bmags]

I mean, we’re pretty much going to do the same thing. Look at some of the guys we’ll be trotting out in 2017:

 

3B: Yolmer Sanchez (2.1 WAR, 534 PA’s)

CF: Leury Garcia (1.1 WAR, 326 PA’s)

LF: Nicky Delmonico (1.0 WAR, 166 PA’s)

 

2017 is a perfect opportunity to give all those guys 600 PA’s and see what happens. If they can maintain 2 to 3 WAR production next year, they can fill supporting roles in the rebuild or be moved for additional talent. DH is the only spot I’m not overly excited about how we’re using at the moment.

 

We are at this point. I'm pro Wellington Castillo signing, but I'm just underscoring that even though some vets could be signed at great value soon as this market stagnates, the Brewers showed good value in letting players like Delmonico play. And for us, let's let this outfield play out. Cordell/tilson/Delmonico may not be long-term pieces, but they are more likely to help us in 2 years as assets than a veteran.

 

For a while I thought we our rebuild most resembled the phillies, who did not prioritize losing as much, and acquired players like Kendrick. I think because of their revenue they may feel more pressure to do that, but regardless it was basically spinning their wheels when they could have tried alternative younger and more interesting players.

[GreenSox]

DH is the only spot I’m not overly excited about how we’re using at the moment.

Sox don't have a young DH per se, but they have a lot of players (primarily outfielders) that need to rotate through the DH spot in order to get regular at bats. I'm glad it's an open position right now.

[Chicago White Sox]

Sox don't have a young DH per se, but they have a lot of players (primarily outfielders) that need to rotate through the DH spot in order to get regular at bats. I'm glad it's an open position right now.

And I'd be ok with that. I'm super excited to see what Cordell can provide and would love to see more of Willy Garcia (not likely to happen). I'm just worried that Davidson will get the majority of the DH at-bats next year and I just don't believe in him taking that next step.

[bmags]

Just one more thought, I just really like what the Brewers are doing.

 

I think the natural impulse would be "okay, we have a need at 2b, we should use our surplus at OF to get the best 2b available".

 

They instead acquired the best asset available who happened to be...another outfielder. But the availability of a Yellich is not always there, but decent upgrades at a 2b should be available. They now have an outfielder with a 4-6 win potential rather than a 3 war OF and 3 war 2b. That gives them a higher floor to make any 2b addition more impactful.

[steveno89]

Just one more thought, I just really like what the Brewers are doing.

 

I think the natural impulse would be "okay, we have a need at 2b, we should use our surplus at OF to get the best 2b available".

 

They instead acquired the best asset available who happened to be...another outfielder. But the availability of a Yellich is not always there, but decent upgrades at a 2b should be available. They now have an outfielder with a 4-6 win potential rather than a 3 war OF and 3 war 2b. That gives them a higher floor to make any 2b addition more impactful.

 

I like the Brewers move, as the prospects they traded all have considerable question marks. Brinson turns 24 years old in early May and his value could be slipping. The time was ripe to cash in on him as a centerpiece.

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Hopefully they deal their OF surplus for pitching, sign Darvish, and maybe bring back Lucroy.

[he gone.]

I think Milwaukee got a steal there. They really didn't give away much in this trade - think Miami did a poor job. I think Hahn did talk to them, but not sure why Miami went after what they did.

I think Miami wanted someone who was going to be in the majors this year to weaken the blow, and they accomplished that. Exactly why I think they woulda taken Anderson + Rutherford + Cease. But oh well.

[iamshack]

Balta has talked about using our playing time as an asset to find undervalued talent, that was the role the Brewers played. 2016 they picked up tons of near major talent and gave them playing time.

 

This trade was also a great example of why to wait until you are closer to knowing. When brewers had a clear surplus they were able to trade for an elite, cost controlled talent, not just an upgrade.

 

That's what I'd like us to do, use surplus for elite upgrades, not just filling 0 war with 2 war vets.

I don’t really see why this trade is indicative of a “wait and see” approach...they basically went out and acquired Yelich and signed Cain despite having like 7 other OFs. I’m not a huge Domingo Santana guy, but the transaction costs of replacing their OF from two days ago with an OF of Cain and Yelich (is Yelich really even THAT valuable in a corner spot?) include 4 prospects so far...does anyone really expect them to get a solid return for Santana and the other OFer they are shopping?

 

I fully understand the value of cost-controlled players for a team such as the Brewers, but it seems like they are blowing through a lot of other currency to assemble an OF that I am not certain will be all that much better than had they just signed Cain and let the other pieces fall where they might have.

 

It almost makes you wonder if they had to acquire Yelich to convince Cain to sign...

[Bob Sacamano]

I don’t really see why this trade is indicative of a “wait and see” approach...they basically went out and acquired Yelich and signed Cain despite having like 7 other OFs. I’m not a huge Domingo Santana guy, but the transaction costs of replacing their OF from two days ago with an OF of Cain and Yelich (is Yelich really even THAT valuable in a corner spot?) include 4 prospects so far...does anyone really expect them to get a solid return for Santana and the other OFer they are shopping?

 

I fully understand the value of cost-controlled players for a team such as the Brewers, but it seems like they are blowing through a lot of other currency to assemble an OF that I am not certain will be all that much better than had they just signed Cain and let the other pieces fall where they might have.

 

It almost makes you wonder if they had to acquire Yelich to convince Cain to sign...

 

Just for the sake of pointing it out, he homered as many times as the mammoth, corner OF Avi Garcia. His defensive value definitely goes up in a corner spot, especially LF as his arm isn't great.

Edited January 26, 2018 by soxfan2014

[wrathofhahn]

The Yelich trade makes sense if they wanted to use the savings of not signing Cain for a SP. Signing Cain makes sense if they wanted to save their prospect capital for a SP trade.

 

The both together make zero sense at all. Brewers spinning their wheels.

[GreatScott82]

The Yelich trade makes sense if they wanted to use the savings of not signing Cain for a SP. Signing Cain makes sense if they wanted to save their prospect capital for a SP trade.

 

The both together make zero sense at all. Brewers spinning their wheels.

I'm sure there is a method to their madness. Acquiring a veteran starter with the OF surplus is likely their next move. Perhaps they still pounce on a Darvish or Arietta as well. Watch out for the Brew Crew in '18. They should be fun to watch. In a perfect anti-Cub world, Darvish signs with the Brewers and Arietta signs with St. Louis.

Edited January 26, 2018 by GreatScott82

[ChiSox59]

The Yelich trade makes sense if they wanted to use the savings of not signing Cain for a SP. Signing Cain makes sense if they wanted to save their prospect capital for a SP trade.

 

The both together make zero sense at all. Brewers spinning their wheels.

 

They still have a fair amount of prospect / OF capital. Some mixture of Broxton, Phillips and Santana will get them a SP, if they don't want to spend on the FA market.

[bmags]

I don’t really see why this trade is indicative of a “wait and see” approach...they basically went out and acquired Yelich and signed Cain despite having like 7 other OFs. I’m not a huge Domingo Santana guy, but the transaction costs of replacing their OF from two days ago with an OF of Cain and Yelich (is Yelich really even THAT valuable in a corner spot?) include 4 prospects so far...does anyone really expect them to get a solid return for Santana and the other OFer they are shopping?

 

I fully understand the value of cost-controlled players for a team such as the Brewers, but it seems like they are blowing through a lot of other currency to assemble an OF that I am not certain will be all that much better than had they just signed Cain and let the other pieces fall where they might have.

 

It almost makes you wonder if they had to acquire Yelich to convince Cain to sign...

 

The wait and see is knowing you have a surplus at outfielder vs the white sox anticipating they have a surplus at places, such as pitching before it is clear that they do.

 

As for Yelich, at 26 he should still provide long-term value as a CF whereas Dyson may make more sense to move to RF. Either way, they are getting a defensive upgrade over Santana.

 

You are right that if you look at zips, yelich is slated for a 113 wrc+, as is Santana. But they have two legitimate outfielders now, and they will need that defense because their pitching staff is going to be much more royals/astros than nationals.

 

Yelich is also the 10th best CF in fangraphs, who knows if he could be more valuable in RF a la Eaton. His arm will be a knock, however.