Chicago White Sox Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 11:04 AM) So the White Sox will sign Machado and another high priced free agent. OK. That was fun. Now back to reality. Aren’t you an accountant or something in real life? We’re going to have almost no payroll commitments come 2019. Even with Machado at $30M/year, we could easily add another $40M in annual commitments in the short-run if not more. And that’s assuming we keep Abreu at like $20M/season. Do you honestly expect to have a sub $100M in 2019? And just for perspective, the Sox added nearly $50M in commitments during the 2014/15 offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 11:14 AM) There's been talk that 2016 and 2017, when Marte was up and when the Pirates were talking about moving him away from CF some years, did not go over well with him. Here’s what Huntington had to say about him a few years ago: "When your best player is your hardest worker and one of the your very best people in a clubhouse full of good guys, you have sometime special," general manager Neal Huntington said. "He has a hard time telling people no, because he wants to give back to the fans and community so much, and we've told him to let us be the bad guy and tell people no. He's just a great player, a great teammate and a great person. We're fortunate to have someone like him." Everything I’ve heard about the guy is he’s a class act. I’m not sure one issue regarding a positional switch changes that for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 11:17 AM) Aren’t you an accountant or something in real life? We’re going to have almost no payroll commitments come 2019. Even with Machado at $30M/year, we could easily add another $40M in annual commitments in the short-run if not more. And that’s assuming we keep Abreu at like $20M/season. Do you honestly expect to have a sub $100M in 2019? And just for perspective, the Sox added nearly $50M in commitments during the 2014/15 offseason. You do realize signing Machado is like signing 3 JD Martinez, and you do realize that if the young players are what you are hoping, they get expensive quickly, and you do realize White Sox fans don't usually spend much money on teams until they show them they can win, not by actually being in first place for months but by actually winning...I expect them to go after Machado. Whether they sign him is a different story, I would think it is probably slim, but for speculation sake, I wouldn't argue with anyone penciling him in a future line up. If they do, they aren't going to spend the money on another top guy. You want 2 or 3 , move off of Machado and there is a chance. I don't know how much, but I do think the White Sox will break their record for biggest contract, assuming most goes according to plan in 2018. Edited January 20, 2018 by Dick Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 11:43 AM) You do realize signing Machado is like signing 3 JD Martinez, and you do realize that if the young players are what you are hoping, they get expensive quickly, and you do realize White Sox fans don't usually spend much money on teams until they show them they can win, not by actually being in first place for months but by actually winning...I expect them to go after Machado. Whether they sign him is a different story, I would think it is probably slim, but for speculation sake, I wouldn't argue with anyone penciling him in a future line up. If they do, they aren't going to spend the money on another top guy. You want 2 or 3 , move off of Machado and there is a chance. I don't know how much, but I do think the White Sox will break their record for biggest contract, assuming most goes according to plan in 2018. I don’t follow. How do Machado’s financial commitments from 2020 onwards effect our 2019 budget? Sure, they’re not going to go out and sign a guy to another $300M+ contract, but there is absolutely no reason they couldn’t sign a few big AAV deals on a short-term basis. Our young players won’t start getting expensive for quite some time and won’t prevent us from adding a few expensive vets to 3 to 4 year deals on top of Machado. And it really sounds like you’re prepared for a $70M payroll or something because of attendance. Just for perspective, we haven’t had a sub $90M payroll since 2005. Revenue streams have significantly changed & increased since then and there is no reason to believe we won’t rock a $110M to $120M payroll in 2019 assuming we’re able to sign the guys we desire. I’m confident we could afford adding Machado, McCutchen, and an impact reliever like Miller in the same offseason. The only thing stopping us is actually convincing these guys to come to Chicago and bidding as much as the competition. Those are the big “ifs”, the budget won’t be a problem IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 11:58 AM) I don’t follow. How do Machado’s financial commitments from 2020 onwards effect our 2019 budget? Sure, they’re not going to go out and sign a guy to another $300M+ contract, but there is absolutely no reason they couldn’t sign a few big AAV deals on a short-term basis. Our young players won’t start getting expensive for quite some time and won’t prevent us from adding a few expensive vets to 3 to 4 year deals on top of Machado. And it really sounds like you’re prepared for a $70M payroll or something because of attendance. Just for perspective, we haven’t had a sub $90M payroll since 2005. Revenue streams have significantly changed & increased since then and there is no reason to believe we won’t rock a $110M to $120M payroll in 2019 assuming we’re able to sign the guys we desire. I’m confident we could afford adding Machado, McCutchen, and an impact reliever like Miller in the same offseason. The only thing stopping us is actually convincing these guys to come to Chicago and bidding as much as the competition. Those are the big “ifs”, the budget won’t be a problem IMO. The White So haven't signed one guy to a contract any of the 3 you mentioned will command, ever. To think they would go from 0 to 3 and one of those being a $300 + million in one off season is a fantasy. I am all for dreaming, but that is just not realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 12:35 PM) The White So haven't signed one guy to a contract any of the 3 you mentioned will command, ever. To think they would go from 0 to 3 and one of those being a $300 + million in one off season is a fantasy. I am all for dreaming, but that is just not realistic. The White Sox never spent $50M on a LatAm signing or traded a star player to the Cubs. Can’t keep citing the past as a reason something won’t happen as there have been real changes in how the organization operates. And I’m not arguing they will land Machado and those other guys, I’m arguing that they can fit them in their 2019 budget. What exactly do you think the Sox are going to do with all this payroll space? If they don’t spend it on top-end free agents, we’ll most certainly have an extremely low payroll. Is that really what you think is going to happen? You keep saying you’re the one being realistic, but I think you blind to the fact we’re going to have a f***ton of money to spend in free agency and that we’re going to spend the majority of it one way or the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Two-Gun Pete Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 I don't see Yelich as being a fit for the rebuild, and I don't see him as being a CFer going forward. Looking @ Fangraphs, he has a negative DRS as a CFer. What's worse, this is in the NL, where the opposing pitcher hits, and thus there may be fewer opportunities for a CFer to make plays. One would anticipate that his DRS would worsen in the Big Boy AL. He DOES have a positive DRS in LF, and comparable power numbers to Avi. However, him moving off CF would reduce his value to an acquiring team. IF Yelich were to be acquired, I'd view him as a replacement for Avi in one of the corners, rather than as a CFer. [Though, I wouldn't want to send Miami anything of value to do so, and I do not support his acquisition.] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 12:53 PM) The White Sox never spent $50M on a LatAm signing or traded a star player to the Cubs. Can’t keep citing the past as a reason something won’t happen as there have been real changes in how the organization operates. And I’m not arguing they will land Machado and those other guys, I’m arguing that they can fit them in their 2019 budget. What exactly do you think the Sox are going to do with all this payroll space? If they don’t spend it on top-end free agents, we’ll most certainly have an extremely low payroll. Is that really what you think is going to happen? You keep saying you’re the one being realistic, but I think you blind to the fact we’re going to have a f***ton of money to spend in free agency and that we’re going to spend the majority of it one way or the other. I have no doubt the White Sox, either next offseason or the offseason after that will spend money like they have never spent before. But $500 million in one offseason for them is laughable. Besides, why would anyone want to pay Adam Jones big money? Declining defense, hasn't put up a 2 fWAR since 2015.l, and will only be older. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 04:16 PM) I have no doubt the White Sox, either next offseason or the offseason after that will spend money like they have never spent before. But $500 million in one offseason for them is laughable. Besides, why would anyone want to pay Adam Jones big money? Declining defense, hasn't put up a 2 fWAR since 2015.l, and will only be older. What counts as big money? He'll be 34 - if he could play a decent CF this year for the Orioles, a 2 year/$30 million deal is roughly fair and that could readily fill our 2019 and 2020 outfield needs, especially if someone like Engel could play themselves into a "decent backup" role. That would then cover 2019 and 2020 and, depending on what he does this year, all of a sudden we bring Robert into the fold. If none of the CF candidates step up this year, that fits our schedule. On the other hand, one of our CF candidates could step up this year, put up a 2 WAR+ season, stay healthy, and make that an unnecessary move. None of them are that far off from that level, but they actually have to do it. If Engel hits .200 again he isn't an option. If Leury and Tilson can't stay healthy then they're not options. That's, again, why we need to play this season out and be ready to hit the ground running in November next year knowing what our needs are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 04:14 PM) What counts as big money? He'll be 34 - if he could play a decent CF this year for the Orioles, a 2 year/$30 million deal is roughly fair and that could readily fill our 2019 and 2020 outfield needs, especially if someone like Engel could play themselves into a "decent backup" role. That would then cover 2019 and 2020 and, depending on what he does this year, all of a sudden we bring Robert into the fold. If none of the CF candidates step up this year, that fits our schedule. On the other hand, one of our CF candidates could step up this year, put up a 2 WAR+ season, stay healthy, and make that an unnecessary move. None of them are that far off from that level, but they actually have to do it. If Engel hits .200 again he isn't an option. If Leury and Tilson can't stay healthy then they're not options. That's, again, why we need to play this season out and be ready to hit the ground running in November next year knowing what our needs are. So you think betting $30 million Adam Jones is a better player at 33 and 34 than he was at 30 and 31 makes sense. I don't , and for some reason think he wouldn't be available at the price unless he declines even more. And he he is available at the price you mentioned, he will have had another declining season. Edited January 20, 2018 by Dick Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 05:22 PM) So you think betting $30 million Adam Jones is a better player at 33 and 34 than he was at 30 and 31 makes sense. I don't , and for some reason think he wouldn't be available at the price unless he declines even more. And he he is available at the price you mentioned, he will have had another declining season. Who said anything about him being a better player at 33 and 34? Right now the going rate for 1 WAR is something like $9 million from what was said to me a couple days ago. So, $15 million is me asking him to be a 1.5 WAR player like he was the last 2 years. If we still have a hole at that position, that is reasonable money to me. If one of the guys we have right now puts up a 2 WAR season, then they've made that unnecessary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) Just curious...but has anybody gone through the defensive stats of the big 3 free agents at CF next year? I mean is the object to play horrible defense in the outfield? I mean I'm all for spending as much money as possible. But I think trading for someone now then adding in free agency next year would be the way to go. Maybe at the deadline this year fine. But I dont like holding off until the last possible second then rushing in with the rest of the teams for big time talent. That's what it seems to me like what Hahn is trying to avoid. Edited January 20, 2018 by Baron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 I don't want them dealing anyone yet. Could always deal next off-season after securing a big free agent to add to the mix. May not be Yelich but someone else can be available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 04:30 PM) Who said anything about him being a better player at 33 and 34? Right now the going rate for 1 WAR is something like $9 million from what was said to me a couple days ago. So, $15 million is me asking him to be a 1.5 WAR player like he was the last 2 years. If we still have a hole at that position, that is reasonable money to me. If one of the guys we have right now puts up a 2 WAR season, then they've made that unnecessary. Paying full price for WAR, Fangraphs has him worth $25 million total for his age 30 and 31 seasons. You want to pay him $30 million for his age 33 and 34 seasons. I think that must mean you expect him to be better. Besides, if he is available at that amount, he will have had another not so great year in 2018. Personally, I would rather not have a guy play CF that you would constantly say or think, he would have made that play 4 or 5 years ago, but I guess that's just me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 11:41 PM) Paying full price for WAR, Fangraphs has him worth $25 million total for his age 30 and 31 seasons. You want to pay him $30 million for his age 33 and 34 seasons. I think that must mean you expect him to be better. Besides, if he is available at that amount, he will have had another not so great year in 2018. Personally, I would rather not have a guy play CF that you would constantly say or think, he would have made that play 4 or 5 years ago, but I guess that's just me. No, I just take into account salary inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (Two-Gun Pete @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 01:34 PM) I don't see Yelich as being a fit for the rebuild, and I don't see him as being a CFer going forward. Looking @ Fangraphs, he has a negative DRS as a CFer. What's worse, this is in the NL, where the opposing pitcher hits, and thus there may be fewer opportunities for a CFer to make plays. One would anticipate that his DRS would worsen in the Big Boy AL. He DOES have a positive DRS in LF, and comparable power numbers to Avi. However, him moving off CF would reduce his value to an acquiring team. IF Yelich were to be acquired, I'd view him as a replacement for Avi in one of the corners, rather than as a CFer. [Though, I wouldn't want to send Miami anything of value to do so, and I do not support his acquisition.] I agree with all of this. Love the idea of Yelich’s bat in our lineup but as somebody mentioned the other day, outfield isn’t really a problem for the Sox moving forward. Sure, CF is a bit up in the air but Robert might take care of that. With the outfields in the minors loaded with guys and not enough playing time to go around, it seems like a position where the Sox have the safest bet of playing “wait and see”. If the Sox are going to fire a bunch of prospect bullets for a Yelich-type core piece this early, maybe 3B is the way to go. Least amount of depth there. The only other sense I could make of a Yelich acquisition is buying lower with our prospects than we could sell him for in the future. I dunno. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSpalehoseCWS Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 11:15 PM) I agree with all of this. Love the idea of Yelich’s bat in our lineup but as somebody mentioned the other day, outfield isn’t really a problem for the Sox moving forward. Sure, CF is a bit up in the air but Robert might take care of that. With the outfields in the minors loaded with guys and not enough playing time to go around, it seems like a position where the Sox have the safest bet of playing “wait and see”. If the Sox are going to fire a bunch of prospect bullets for a Yelich-type core piece this early, maybe 3B is the way to go. Least amount of depth there. The only other sense I could make of a Yelich acquisition is buying lower with our prospects than we could sell him for in the future. I dunno. There's no way the Sox would trade for Yelich only to flip him for a better return. If they trade for him, it's to be as a part of the core of the rebuild. I still can't see them trading any of the top prospects when they aren't even in contention yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Would rather go after McCutcheon than Adam Jones, tbh. But no commitment longer than the 2020 season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldsox Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 If Sox get Yelich, can they contend this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (oldsox @ Jan 21, 2018 -> 06:45 AM) If Sox get Yelich, can they contend this year? Nope...their rotation has way too many holes, as does the bullpen. The best would be around 78-82 wins, a middling first round pick in 2019 and a significant chunk out of the farm system/1-2 year players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (Wanne @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 05:29 PM) agree with the last two statements. First....a little early to be dumping top prospects...and I really want no part of trading our pitching assets...yet. One thing about this view... "yet" is the best of both worlds. I don't think you are afforded that luxury. The only way you are afforded that luxury is that you absolutely are in a place where you don't have to make any deal. So you do have the luxury of letting this play out. However, I think we can agree that not all these pitchers or prospects will pan out. if they do we'll be the Astros. So if you trade now Cease and Rutherford may be worthless in a year and you ended up trading _______ for Yelich. Flip side? Cease and Rutherford might be David Robertson and well... Yelich in 3 years. In that case you lose. I'm okay waiting a half year and pulling the trigger. But at that point your package may look completely different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Jan 21, 2018 -> 07:24 AM) One thing about this view... "yet" is the best of both worlds. I don't think you are afforded that luxury. The only way you are afforded that luxury is that you absolutely are in a place where you don't have to make any deal. So you do have the luxury of letting this play out. However, I think we can agree that not all these pitchers or prospects will pan out. if they do we'll be the Astros. So if you trade now Cease and Rutherford may be worthless in a year and you ended up trading _______ for Yelich. Flip side? Cease and Rutherford might be David Robertson and well... Yelich in 3 years. In that case you lose. I'm okay waiting a half year and pulling the trigger. But at that point your package may look completely different. I’m confused here. Are you suggesting the main two pieces would be Cease & Rutherford? Cause if so, the Sox would have made that trade yesterday. The problem is it’s going to cost a lot more than two fringe top 100 types. Rumor is they asked for Acuna from the Braves. And while that was just the initial ask in the discussions, I fully believe the Marlins wouldn’t accept anything less than Robert or Hansen as a headliner from us. That’s a no go for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 21, 2018 -> 08:40 AM) I’m confused here. Are you suggesting the main two pieces would be Cease & Rutherford? Cause if so, the Sox would have made that trade yesterday. The problem is it’s going to cost a lot more than two fringe top 100 types. Rumor is they asked for Acuna from the Braves. And while that was just the initial ask in the discussions, I fully believe the Marlins wouldn’t accept anything less than Robert or Hansen as a headliner from us. That’s a no go for me. If they're asking for Acuna from the Braves, the comparable ask from us as a centerpiece isn't Robert or Hansen, it's Kopech or Jiminez. That's top 10 in baseball as a starting ask. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 21, 2018 -> 07:40 AM) I’m confused here. Are you suggesting the main two pieces would be Cease & Rutherford? Cause if so, the Sox would have made that trade yesterday. The problem is it’s going to cost a lot more than two fringe top 100 types. Rumor is they asked for Acuna from the Braves. And while that was just the initial ask in the discussions, I fully believe the Marlins wouldn’t accept anything less than Robert or Hansen as a headliner from us. That’s a no go for me. Yes. Cease + Rutherford + another big piece that isn't our top 4. Literally anybody from Anderson to Burger to Giolito to Lopez. I don't think the Marlins are going to get the return they are seeking. We were extremely lucky with what Hahn pulled off. I may be wrong, but I highly doubt they get Acuna or Hansen types. I think they settle for 3-4 pieces. 1 MLB ready player (Lopez, Anderson) . 2 that are very strong prospects (Cease and Rutheford type) and then a throw in (Adolfo type). That's my personal guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 21, 2018 -> 03:38 PM) If they're asking for Acuna from the Braves, the comparable ask from us as a centerpiece isn't Robert or Hansen, it's Kopech or Jiminez. That's top 10 in baseball as a starting ask. I’m sure they’d start with Jimenez or Kopech, but my point is they wouldn’t settle for less than Robert or Hansen as a headliner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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