2018 Democrats thread

[wrathofhahn]

1 minute ago, StrangeSox said:

I already explained that they can go back and campaign either way. 

Schumer could and should fight every step up the way as McConnell did when he controlled the minority. Winning the Senate is a long-shot, but it's within the realm of possibility. That would then be 15 fewer court seats for reactionary Federalist Society hacks.

But they can't stop them the majority with the exception of possibly 2-3 will be confirmed anyways.

[StrangeSox]

They could have forced McConnell to keep his caucus there, denying them the opportunity to campaign if they need to. And that's 2-3 fewer seats. Instead Chucky decided to make it easier for McConnell.

[pettie4sox]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

This doesn’t account for a potential 20%+ correction in the stock market in October...that pushes AZ and NV to the Dems, maybe even TN or TX flip.  Florida goes to Nelson for sure.

The only one who seems truly doomed right now is Heitkamp.

I read somewhere that in 2012, Heitkamp was down double digits in the polls and won.  Do you really think if she voted to confirm Kavanaugh, she could be more comfortable in the polls at the moment?

[Balta1701]

44 minutes ago, pettie4sox said:

I read somewhere that in 2012, Heitkamp was down double digits in the polls and won.  Do you really think if she voted to confirm Kavanaugh, she could be more comfortable in the polls at the moment?

No, but in 2012 the Republicans hadn't yet declared that the native American population in that state was ineligible to vote.

[Reddy]

7 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

It would further a certain narrative and most of the democrat fortunes in these red states are falling as it is. Not to mention they need to go back and campaign also if the theory is the Democrats are not going to take back the senate what does fighting really accomplish? They'll just be confirmed later hell they don't even have the votes to block them now the best scenario is they delay a couple until after the election.

Schumer made the smart decision, really the only decision. I don't get the anger towards him at all first of all he threw his red state democrats under the bus in a failed attempt to stop Kavanaugh. That didn't work but it least had a small sliver of a chance of success. Fighting these nominees does nothing for democrats

This is right.

[Reddy]

12 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

You are officially invalidated because you didn't follow the generally accepted steps to be a democrat.

 

 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Reddy said:

 

 

Did someone hijack your account?

[BigSqwert]

11 hours ago, Reddy said:

 

 

I'm genuinely curious what your pitch is like when you knock on a door and someone answers who is not politically savvy and doesn't pay much attention to the news. How do you convince them to vote for your party?

[Dam8610]

2 hours ago, BigSqwert said:

I'm genuinely curious what your pitch is like when you knock on a door and someone answers who is not politically savvy and doesn't pay much attention to the news. How do you convince them to vote for your party?

He screams at them and tells them how stupid they are if they don't vote Democrat. It worked so well for Hillary, after all.

[Reddy]

7 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

He screams at them and tells them how stupid they are if they don't vote Democrat. It worked so well for Hillary, after all.

It shocks me that you're in your 30s.

[Dam8610]

33 minutes ago, Reddy said:

It shocks me that you're in your 30s.

It shocks me that you think the establishment will do anything but further all of the problems.

[Reddy]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

It shocks me that you think the establishment will do anything but further all of the problems.

Yes, a 29 year old who grew up in a working class family and who has student loan debt is definitely the establishment.

You're like a meme of all Bernie supporters. It's hard to believe you're real sometimes.

[Reddy]

11 hours ago, BigSqwert said:

I'm genuinely curious what your pitch is like when you knock on a door and someone answers who is not politically savvy and doesn't pay much attention to the news. How do you convince them to vote for your party?

I'm not convincing them to vote for a party - I'm talking to them about a candidate. I almost never talk about Democrat or Republican. I talk about how she's the daughter of a pipefitter welder and school district secretary, whose sister and brother-in-law run a family farm. Put herself through college and has the student loan debt to show for it. About how the three things that are under attack in Iowa right now are unions, education funding and our family farms, and all three things hit her where she lives. That's her friends and her family. So who do you trust to fight for those things? A multi-millionaire with ethics violations who voted to give the top 1% huge tax cuts or someone who lives it every day?

It's pretty easy actually. She *is* this district.

[Dam8610]

14 minutes ago, Reddy said:

Yes, a 29 year old who grew up in a working class family and who has student loan debt is definitely the establishment.

You're like a meme of all Bernie supporters. It's hard to believe you're real sometimes.

I didn't say you were the establishment. You're working for the establishment. They won't change, no matter how hard you work for them or how politely you ask them to.

[Reddy]

18 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

I didn't say you were the establishment. You're working for the establishment. They won't change, no matter how hard you work for them or how politely you ask them to.

lol. I was referring to my candidate, not me.

[southsider2k5]

4 hours ago, Reddy said:

It shocks me that you're in your 30s.

More adult conversations?

[caulfield12]

9 hours ago, Reddy said:

I'm not convincing them to vote for a party - I'm talking to them about a candidate. I almost never talk about Democrat or Republican. I talk about how she's the daughter of a pipefitter welder and school district secretary, whose sister and brother-in-law run a family farm. Put herself through college and has the student loan debt to show for it. About how the three things that are under attack in Iowa right now are unions, education funding and our family farms, and all three things hit her where she lives. That's her friends and her family. So who do you trust to fight for those things? A multi-millionaire with ethics violations who voted to give the top 1% huge tax cuts or someone who lives it every day?

It's pretty easy actually. She *is* this district.

The problem with this is you’re crafting an inspirational “feel good” backstory (it could as easily be Obama or Ocasio-Cortez)...but I don’t hear any new ideas.  Just fighting for or protecting, rather than something new or innovative that improves lives.  It’s like a rear guard action, it might be good enough for 2018 but it’s not the kind of argument that will convince people to vote for a Dem at the top of the ticket in 2020.

 

Or let’s just call it the search for “authenticity” that Ocasio-Cortez, Connor Lamb and O’Rourke started

https://www.yahoo.com/news/authenticity-now-attribute-craved-national-democrats-162902736--election.html

Edited October 14, 2018 by caulfield12

[Reddy]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The problem with this is you’re crafting an inspirational “feel good” backstory (it could as easily be Obama or Ocasio-Cortez)...but I don’t hear any new ideas.  Just fighting for or protecting, rather than something new or innovative that improves lives.  It’s like a rear guard action, it might be good enough for 2018 but it’s not the kind of argument that will convince people to vote for a Dem at the top of the ticket in 2020.

 

Or let’s just call it the search for “authenticity” that Ocasio-Cortez, Connor Lamb and O’Rourke started

https://www.yahoo.com/news/authenticity-now-attribute-craved-national-democrats-162902736--election.html

Uh, authenticity is the thing my candidate has going for her above all else. The two paragraphs in your comment are contradictory. 

Trump didn't win because of policy. He won because he connected to people's gut. The vast majority of people don't vote for policy. This has been proven time and time again by researchers. It's emotions and a gut reaction. Like you said, authenticity. 

[Reddy]

By the way I'm not crafting anything. It's all true. 

[caulfield12]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/14/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-bernie-sanders-2020/index.html

Trump expected to win (barely) in 2020, Biden way ahead for Dems (33% to 13% for Sanders, Harris 3rd), Bloomberg only 4%, same as O’Rourke

 

The fierce battle to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh hasn’t turned into an electoral advantage for Republicans so far, according to a CNN poll that found Democrats with a large lead headed into November midterm elections.

In a generic ballot matchup, likely voters favored the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress 54 percent to 41 percent over the GOP candidate, according to the poll. That’s little changed from September, when the same poll found 52 percent of voters favored Democratic candidates for Congress.

Democrats have a 30-point lead with women voters, 63 percent to 33 percent, the poll found. Men favor Democrats by only about 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent. The survey was conducted by telephone Oct. 4-7 and had a 3.8 percent margin of error.

Edited October 14, 2018 by caulfield12

[Dam8610]

55 minutes ago, Reddy said:

By the way I'm not crafting anything. It's all true. 

Regardless of the truth in a narrative, it is crafted.

[Reddy]

48 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Regardless of the truth in a narrative, it is crafted.

Okay. Can you point out how my candidate is establishment, or how I sell her at the doors is problematic/establishment

[Reddy]

 

10/10 would get crushed in the Midwest

[wrathofhahn]

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/14/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-bernie-sanders-2020/index.html

Trump expected to win (barely) in 2020, Biden way ahead for Dems (33% to 13% for Sanders, Harris 3rd), Bloomberg only 4%, same as O’Rourke

 

The fierce battle to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh hasn’t turned into an electoral advantage for Republicans so far, according to a CNN poll that found Democrats with a large lead headed into November midterm elections.

In a generic ballot matchup, likely voters favored the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress 54 percent to 41 percent over the GOP candidate, according to the poll. That’s little changed from September, when the same poll found 52 percent of voters favored Democratic candidates for Congress.

Democrats have a 30-point lead with women voters, 63 percent to 33 percent, the poll found. Men favor Democrats by only about 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent. The survey was conducted by telephone Oct. 4-7 and had a 3.8 percent margin of error.

What you posted is nonsense first of all CNN polls are not well respected because they fudge with the numbers. Two, national polls while interesting are not necessarily applicable to local races.

They also poll everyone not just likely voters they also adjust the results according to ethnicity. You can see their polls on realclearpolitics they are always skewed regardless of the what they are polling.

If you want to get a general idea of how a race is going realclearpolitcs does sort of a graph of where all the individual races stand and the trendline.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

 

[StrangeSox]

Rcp is okay but makes some weird choices in who they count sometimes. Some really garbage pollsters get into the mix with them. They also just do straight aggregation, for better or worse, so the "house effect" and quality for each pollster isn't taken into account. 

Cnn is a respected pollster. I'm not sure what you mean by "fudge with the numbers" since you also complain about them reporting registered voters/all adults numbers. Likely voter screens are the most "fudging the numbers" you can do since the pollster has to determine what their likely voter model is. When other research firms poll, they will also do registered voters as their making sample and then pare those results down based on their likely voter screen, and they'll usually report both numbers.

All pollsters also adjust for demographics. Nobody just straight reports the raw numbers because that's not how good statistical surveys are done. If your sample doesn't match the population you're sampling, you need to adjust.