White Sox acquire Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan and $3 Million

[Eminor3rd]

You have me entirely confused.

 

A smaller sample size increases the possibility of an average being skewed by a number of anomalous outings. If I am relying on an average that is more easily skewed, than it makes that average less informative.

 

While every outing is important, if I am team, I want to know what kind of pitcher a guy is the vast majority of the time and work on eliminating those few instances where he isn’t pitching like he does the remainder of the time.

 

The peripherals ARE the peripherals because they're mathematical shown to be better predictors of future ERA than ERA is itself. They were "mined" specifically for dealing with the problem you're bringing up. This is theoretically because they are closer proxies to measuring skill than the run-results are. Now, they aren't perfect, and come with many of the same risks and flaws as the run numbers, but they are BETTER at least.

 

The idea is, essentially, that if you see a bad team result (which ERA is), try to isolate the player results and see if they line up. So, yeah, Soria might suck but there are reasons to believe he might not. That's really the whole gist.

[iamshack]

The peripherals ARE the peripherals because they're mathematical shown to be better predictors of future ERA than ERA is itself. They were "mined" specifically for dealing with the problem you're bringing up. This is theoretically because they are closer proxies to measuring skill than the run-results are. Now, they aren't perfect, and come with many of the same risks and flaws as the run numbers, but they are BETTER at least.

 

The idea is, essentially, that if you see a bad team result (which ERA is), try to isolate the player results and see if they line up. So, yeah, Soria might suck but there are reasons to believe he might not. That's really the whole gist.

Yeah, that’s what I was trying to argue. Ptatc said the opposite. He said the average is indicative of the performance, because by definition it is the average performance.

[ptatc]

Yeah, that’s what I was trying to argue. Ptatc said the opposite. He said the average is indicative of the performance, because by definition it is the average performance.

Which is correct. It is the true look at the performance, good and bad, throughout the season.. I never said it was a predictor of future performance only that it's a true look at current performance.

 

the reason that bullpen performance is so difficult to predict from year to year is that the season for them is a small size. They don't pitch enough that there is an allowance for aberrations. No stats can truly correct for that. It's a little easier with starters. However, this is the reason that the "stats" people like Epstein have a better handle on predicting hitter outcomes. The more data points you have, the better the prediction model. It's why he drafted hitting and paid for proven pitchers.

[greg775]

Dang Greg, let me see if I understand you here. You WERE planning to get MLB TV but now that the Sox have added two relievers better than Albuquerque and Covey and who won't make you cringe as much without giving up any MLB talent, you are deciding you aren't watching the Sox next year? I am a little lost.

You guys are too buried in stats and have to discuss the human element. Picture greg watching a Royals game or driving in the car listening and watching Soria blow 7 saves each of the past two seasons. I'd laugh at the reaction on the talk shows the next day. Soria was that bad in KC. I don't care how much you guys say I'm full of bleep. I know what I see and hear and 7 saves each season are a lot of blown saves. Heaven forbid my guy Bobby Jenks blow 7 saves or even David Robertson who I also liked.

Now Soria was great his first stint in KC. His second tenure there they were dying to shed that salary and got rid of him, unfortunately to my team. If somehow he's great again, awesome. Never underestimate Coop.

But it's tough for me to think about paying for mlb and seeing Soria come in games. Cause he's been that bad of late.

 

I'm not the devil. I am not rooting for the Sox to lose. Heaven forbid I've been one of the lone voices of fandom (with El Rockin) cheering for the team to win "meaningless" games and not caring about draft picks.

Somebody should do a thread ranking and rating all the posters like past years. I am confident at least my passion for the Sox would be recognized.

Go Soria! Go Sox!

[Sleepy Harold]

You guys are too buried in stats and have to discuss the human element. Picture greg watching a Royals game or driving in the car listening and watching Soria blow 7 saves each of the past two seasons. I'd laugh at the reaction on the talk shows the next day. Soria was that bad in KC. I don't care how much you guys say I'm full of bleep. I know what I see and hear and 7 saves each season are a lot of blown saves. Heaven forbid my guy Bobby Jenks blow 7 saves or even David Robertson who I also liked.

Now Soria was great his first stint in KC. His second tenure there they were dying to shed that salary and got rid of him, unfortunately to my team. If somehow he's great again, awesome. Never underestimate Coop.

But it's tough for me to think about paying for mlb and seeing Soria come in games. Cause he's been that bad of late.

 

I'm not the devil. I am not rooting for the Sox to lose. Heaven forbid I've been one of the lone voices of fandom (with El Rockin) cheering for the team to win "meaningless" games and not caring about draft picks.

Somebody should do a thread ranking and rating all the posters like past years. I am confident at least my passion for the Sox would be recognized.

Go Soria! Go Sox!

 

I find these points interesting. Considering that this one relief pitcher may appear in roughly 4% (took avg of Soria's total IP over the last 3 seasons ( vs the total # of innings over the course of 162 games (1458 total innings), not including any games that may go to extras...and this is all assuming that Soria would be on the team for the full season) of the team's games over the course of a season, that that is the straw that broke greg's back and he can no longer stomach to pay to watch the Sox play. The other 96% of the Sorialess White Sox time isn't great enough to overcome the appearances of one man? I know you believe he blows, which you've made very apparent over the course of this thread, but you really seem to be holding some grudge bc KC raido said its cool to do.

 

BTW, David Robertson blew 7 saves in BOTH 2015 & 2016 with the Sox and Jenks blew 6 in 2009, which isn't 7 but damn close, so they both must have had terrible seasons despite what the statistics may say right?

 

 

[elrockinMT]

When a successful reliever has a bad year then you must believe he can be coached back to being the closer he was, or he is washed up. Let’s hope Soria can be helped by Mr Cooper

[Balta1701]

I find these points interesting. Considering that this one relief pitcher may appear in roughly 4% (took avg of Soria's total IP over the last 3 seasons ( vs the total # of innings over the course of 162 games (1458 total innings), not including any games that may go to extras...and this is all assuming that Soria would be on the team for the full season) of the team's games over the course of a season, that that is the straw that broke greg's back and he can no longer stomach to pay to watch the Sox play. The other 96% of the Sorialess White Sox time isn't great enough to overcome the appearances of one man? I know you believe he blows, which you've made very apparent over the course of this thread, but you really seem to be holding some grudge bc KC raido said its cool to do.

 

BTW, David Robertson blew 7 saves in BOTH 2015 & 2016 with the Sox and Jenks blew 6 in 2009, which isn't 7 but damn close, so they both must have had terrible seasons despite what the statistics may say right?

I always thought Robertson was way more frustrating than his overall numbers showed and than his stuff should have allowed, so I totally buy KC getting frustrated by 7 blown saves out of this guy. That makes him an excellent acquisition for the 2018 White Sox.

 

And seriously to Greg, only buy MLB.TV if you want to see the rookies come up, struggle sometimes, lose a lot of games, and occasionally do something spectacular. I'll be buying it myself in 2019. Because we're going to be solid. Save your 2018 money for the T-shirts in 2020, because we're taking a division and I'll see you in the Series.

[bmags]

I always thought Robertson was way more frustrating than his overall numbers showed and than his stuff should have allowed, so I totally buy KC getting frustrated by 7 blown saves out of this guy. That makes him an excellent acquisition for the 2018 White Sox.

 

And seriously to Greg, only buy MLB.TV if you want to see the rookies come up, struggle sometimes, lose a lot of games, and occasionally do something spectacular. I'll be buying it myself in 2019. Because we're going to be solid. Save your 2018 money for the T-shirts in 2020, because we're taking a division and I'll see you in the Series.

 

Naw, no way. I had more fun watching last year than the previous two years combined.

[Sleepy Harold]

Naw, no way. I had more fun watching last year than the previous two years combined.

100% agree here. Last year was a breath of fresh air for me as a fan.

[bmags]

From Rosenthal’s latest:

“— The White Sox were not only the team interested in reliever Joakim Soria, whom they acquired from the Kansas City Royals on Thursday in a three-team trade that also included the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Oakland Athletics also wanted Soria, and like the White Sox envisioned him as a potential late-inning weapon who might yield a significant return at the non-waiver deadline.”

[Dam8610]

From Rosenthal’s latest:

“— The White Sox were not only the team interested in reliever Joakim Soria, whom they acquired from the Kansas City Royals on Thursday in a three-team trade that also included the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Oakland Athletics also wanted Soria, and like the White Sox envisioned him as a potential late-inning weapon who might yield a significant return at the non-waiver deadline.”

 

Glad to see Hahn can see past a statistic that isn't particularly useful in terms of predictive value for non-closers.

[greg775]

BTW, David Robertson blew 7 saves in BOTH 2015 & 2016 with the Sox and Jenks blew 6 in 2009, which isn't 7 but damn close, so they both must have had terrible seasons despite what the statistics may say right?

According to this board they both were awful. I defended Jenks day after day on here and got killed for it. Ditto Robertson. He was a whipping boy on here in 2015 and I said he was fine.

[Bob Sacamano]

According to this board they both were awful. I defended Jenks day after day on here and got killed for it. Ditto Robertson. He was a whipping boy on here in 2015 and I said he was fine.

 

And the point goes over his head, folks.

[Eminor3rd]

Yeah, that’s what I was trying to argue. Ptatc said the opposite. He said the average is indicative of the performance, because by definition it is the average performance.

 

Sorry, I shouldn’t have jumped in without context.

[Eminor3rd]

Greg’s line of reasoning makes no logical sense, and it’s frustrating to hear him consistently ignore repeated attempts to explain what everyone else is talking about, but I don’t think he’s trolling here. I don’t think he’s said much that’s overly antagonistic, at least not at first.

 

There are many times when he has been out of line, but this isn’t one of them.

Edited January 8, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[harfman77]

This is a great trade for the Sox, dumping Peter for Avilan is a good move as he is a valuable player. Taking on Sorias contract is worth it given the need for bodies in the bullpen. There is a chance that both the players can be flipped for more prospect value than Jake Peters has ever had.

[wrathofhahn]

Greg’s line of reasoning makes no logical sense, and it’s frustrating to hear him consistently ignore repeated attempts to explain what everyone else is talking about, but I don’t think he’s trolling here. I don’t think he’s said much that’s overly antagonistic, at least not at first.

 

There are many times when he has been out of line, but this isn’t one of them.

 

Actually there are stats based on results rather then predictions that he could have used to make his argument. His WHIP was high last year. His HR/FB was abnormally low. His LD% was the highest it's ever been.

 

I mean he was hit hard last year of course his BABIP suggests he was still unlucky given all the other factors but there is risk. Saying he sucks though because he blew saves as a reliever is like saying a batter is great because of RBI.

 

It's just a meaningless stat and even if you end up being proven right it's more random chance then an accurate prediction.

[bmags]

I think everyone was right to be happy with Soria.

 

I like the general profile and that his fastball didn't disappear.

 

It doesn't matter to me that he wasn't good last year because of the following anecdote:

- Matt Albers became one of the worst relievers in my memory before releasing him. He then was an effective and for a while, the best, reliever on a playoff team the next year. What were the signs that would happen?

 

 

That stuff happens a lot. And the thing is if it fails I don't really care about losing $7 million this year or Jake Peter because clearly he was hugely deprioritized in our system because of his bat wasn't good enough to overcome his lack of defensive versatility.

[greg775]

Greg’s line of reasoning makes no logical sense, and it’s frustrating to hear him consistently ignore repeated attempts to explain what everyone else is talking about, but I don’t think he’s trolling here. I don’t think he’s said much that’s overly antagonistic, at least not at first.

 

There are many times when he has been out of line, but this isn’t one of them.

Thanks. I thought it only logical to inform everybody what the peeps in KC were saying about finally getting rid of Soria. If the stats don't prove me right, fine, but I do think it's significant the guy blew 7 saves. It makes the home fans believe he's worthless and he's definitely the scapegoat in KC. Again if the stats don't back me up, whatever. My eye test told me Fathom could line doubles off Joaquim Soria last season.

[Dick Allen]

Thanks. I thought it only logical to inform everybody what the peeps in KC were saying about finally getting rid of Soria. If the stats don't prove me right, fine, but I do think it's significant the guy blew 7 saves. It makes the home fans believe he's worthless and he's definitely the scapegoat in KC. Again if the stats don't back me up, whatever. My eye test told me Fathom could line doubles off Joaquim Soria last season.

Peripherals lie just like the eye test. It is hard for some to believe it but it's true. Look at the peripherals, Javy Vazquez was a far superior major league pitcher to Mark Buerhle . I don't know why people defend these peripheral kings to the death when you say they suck. Who is invested in Joakim Soria. I got the same crap you are getting a few years ago when the White Sox signed a pitcher from KC who I said sucked, but evidently the peripherals didn't agree, therefore I was a stooge. Felipe Paulino, how you doin?

 

Zach Duke, same thing.

 

Luckily for White Sox fans, Soria's stay will be closer in length to Paulino..

Edited January 9, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Bob Sacamano]

Peripherals lie just like the eye test. It is hard for some to believe it but it's true. Look at the peripherals, Javy Vazquez was a far superior major league pitcher to Mark Buerhle . I don't know why people defend these peripheral kings to the death when you say they suck. Who is invested in Joakim Soria. I got the same crap you are getting a few years ago when the White Sox signed a pitcher from KC who I said sucked, but evidently the peripherals didn't agree, therefore I was a stooge. Felipe Paulino, how you doin?

 

Zach Duke, same thing.

 

Luckily for White Sox fans, Soria's stay will be closer in length to Paulino..

 

I don't think anyone really expects him to be great. Just that his peripherals give hope that he could be a bounce-back candidate. I expect him to be meh but I wouldn't be surprised if he is good this season honestly.

Edited January 9, 2018 by soxfan2014

[Chicago White Sox]

Peripherals lie just like the eye test. It is hard for some to believe it but it's true. Look at the peripherals, Javy Vazquez was a far superior major league pitcher to Mark Buerhle . I don't know why people defend these peripheral kings to the death when you say they suck. Who is invested in Joakim Soria. I got the same crap you are getting a few years ago when the White Sox signed a pitcher from KC who I said sucked, but evidently the peripherals didn't agree, therefore I was a stooge. Felipe Paulino, how you doin?

 

Zach Duke, same thing.

 

Luckily for White Sox fans, Soria's stay will be closer in length to Paulino..

Since you seem to think Soria sucks so much, what are you basing this opinion on? Clearly you didn’t watch him enough to form this opinion through the “eye test”, so I’m curious to hear what qualitative data you’re using to come to this conclusion.

[Jerksticks]

Since you seem to think Soria sucks so much, what are you basing this opinion on? Clearly you didn’t watch him enough to form this opinion through the “eye test”, so I’m curious to hear what qualitative data you’re using to come to this conclusion.

 

Some players just scar fan bases from suckitude, good peripherals or not. Soria did enough stinkin to make the KC fans glad he’s gone. Off the top of my head I equate the feeling KC fans had when Soria was coming in to Linestink.

 

 

Sure Soria’s peripherals may suggest one thing. Thousands of KC fans glad he’s gone suggests differently. I think both are equally valid as data to form an opinion of the trade.

 

 

[oldsox]

Peripherals lie just like the eye test. It is hard for some to believe it but it's true. Look at the peripherals, Javy Vazquez was a far superior major league pitcher to Mark Buerhle . I don't know why people defend these peripheral kings to the death when you say they suck. Who is invested in Joakim Soria. I got the same crap you are getting a few years ago when the White Sox signed a pitcher from KC who I said sucked, but evidently the peripherals didn't agree, therefore I was a stooge. Felipe Paulino, how you doin?

 

Zach Duke, same thing.

 

Luckily for White Sox fans, Soria's stay will be closer in length to Paulino..

I said it first.

[Dick Allen]

Since you seem to think Soria sucks so much, what are you basing this opinion on? Clearly you didn’t watch him enough to form this opinion through the “eye test”, so I’m curious to hear what qualitative data you’re using to come to this conclusion.

I have seen him pitch and have seen his numbers and have followed him a bit. He used to be a stud. 2 TJS later, not so much. He isn't good, and really no one whose job depends on them being correct thinks he's good. It's why they throw in a reliever who actually is halfway decent as part of the eating the contract part. Plus, he's going to be 34. Again, I will write this because some people actually think the argument is the trade was bad. It wasn't. He is.

 

What are posters basing he will be worth even more than he was now at the deadline? Past performance does enter the equation. It's been a while since Soria was elite.

Edited January 9, 2018 by Dick Allen