2018 better or another chase for the first overall pick?

[southsider2k5]

If that happens, it'd be safe to assume that the majority of the young players struggled really badly.

 

It won't happen.

 

Not really, no.

[OmarComing25]

On the flip side, the Sox will have full seasons from Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Delmonico, etc.

 

My point is that if the Sox are so bad to the extent that they get another top 5 pick, 2018 will be a horrible failure.

We could easily get good seasons from every single one of those guys and still end up with a top 5 pick.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Not really, no.

Can you explain? I fail to see how the Sox would be so bad unless the young guys regressed and/or didn't live up to their expectations.

[Bob Sacamano]

Can you explain? I fail to see how the Sox would be so bad unless the young guys regressed and/or didn't live up to their expectations.

 

Lots of good players don't live up to their expectations their first full season. Lots of players take their lumps and the league adjusts. It happens.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Lots of good players don't live up to their expectations their first full season. Lots of players take their lumps and the league adjusts. It happens.

I know but I don't see any scenario in which the Sox are worse than last year.

[wrathofhahn]

I know but I don't see any scenario in which the Sox are worse than last year.

 

Pitching and the bullpen is going to be a problem.

 

Bullpen has some interesting names though Bummer, Viera, Soria, Jones, Burdi, and Avilian but so many unknowns. I see plenty of scenarios where they are worse even if most of the young guys play well enough

[FT35]

I would say 75-100 wins bc our division is gonna be awful. Our pitching should be getting better and better

 

You know...as much as I chuckled at the top end of this prediction, I do think it’s possible for us to overachieve from a win/loss perspective solely due to our division being so weak. Zips has us at 61 wins and I think that doesn’t account for the shear volume of games we will play against teams who are just as bad. We have 2 other declining/rebuilding (KC & Det) teams that we will play nearly 40 times...we’ll also have another large chunk against a Twins team who I think will come back to earth a little from last year. That’s almost 60 games...if we split those 60 and win 30, we’d only have to play .400 ball (.414 last year) in the remaining 100 games to win 70 overall. Don’t get me wrong, i think we will be bad—but starting to think 75 wins isn’t a pipe dream. Using last year’s standings, 75 wins would have put us 20th/21st overall...that’s still good for a top-10 (or so) pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we win ourselves out of the top 5 with our schedule.

[southsider2k5]

I know but I don't see any scenario in which the Sox are worse than last year.

 

Even fangraphs sees this as a 65 win team. Rick Hahn sees this team as two years away.

 

It isn't that hard to see a top 5 pick as realistic.

[Dam8610]

I would say 75-100 wins bc our division is gonna be awful. Our pitching should be getting better and better

 

This bold prediction puts the team anywhere from Top 5 pick to World Series contender.

[bmags]

FWIW the royals zips were also brutal and only slightly better by like 1 projected WAR.

 

So, yes fair to say will be hard to do much worse when facing royals/tigers a bunch.

[Dick Allen]

Considering all the teams that will be spending cash next year, if the White Sox have any chance at Machado winning 65-70 games isn't going to help the cause unless JR gives him an offer that is not very similar to the rest. There is no doubt in my mind they want him, but if the money is the same, I think he picks the Yankees. He will have to Cano him but with an extra truck of cash than Cano received.

Edited January 10, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Bob Sacamano]

Considering all the teams that will be spending cash next year, if the White Sox have any chance at Machado winning 65-70 games isn't going to help the cause unless JR gives him an offer that is not very similar to the rest. There is no doubt in my mind they want him, but if the money is the same, I think he picks the Yankees. He will have to Cano him but with an extra truck of cash than Cano received.

 

Well yeah if the money is the same, I wouldn't expect him to sign here. They'd have to offer the most.

 

[Balta1701]

Well yeah if the money is the same, I wouldn't expect him to sign here. They'd have to offer the most.

If Rick Hahn is convinced that Machado is their guy, then Machado should be the first big signing of the offseason. Harper won't sign early, we all know that will wait until the winter meetings if not longer because Boras. If 3b/SS is still our need next offseason and Machado is target #1, the extra $2-3 million a year we might save on him by negotiating isn't worth the risk of him going somewhere else. Call them up on the day that he declares FA, get their numbers, put an offer on the table that works for you, and get it done in November.

[southsider2k5]

If Rick Hahn is convinced that Machado is their guy, then Machado should be the first big signing of the offseason. Harper won't sign early, we all know that will wait until the winter meetings if not longer because Boras. If 3b/SS is still our need next offseason and Machado is target #1, the extra $2-3 million a year we might save on him by negotiating isn't worth the risk of him going somewhere else. Call them up on the day that he declares FA, get their numbers, put an offer on the table that works for you, and get it done in November.

 

By the reports of the time, it cost the Rangers $70 million extra to get Alex Rodriguez.

[Dick Allen]

If Rick Hahn is convinced that Machado is their guy, then Machado should be the first big signing of the offseason. Harper won't sign early, we all know that will wait until the winter meetings if not longer because Boras. If 3b/SS is still our need next offseason and Machado is target #1, the extra $2-3 million a year we might save on him by negotiating isn't worth the risk of him going somewhere else. Call them up on the day that he declares FA, get their numbers, put an offer on the table that works for you, and get it done in November.

If you are Machado's agent, what's the rush? Wouldn't you want to see if the teams that were willing to pony up the money for Harper and didn't land him, may want to spend on your client?

[Balta1701]

By the reports of the time, it cost the Rangers $70 million extra to get Alex Rodriguez.

If we're signing a 10 year contract with an opt-out, that's $7 million a year extra. That's the difference between what, $28 mil and $35 mil a year on paper?

 

We wasted that much money on Cabrera and LaRoche (well, would have on LaRoche had he not retired). If we're not going to learn our lessons from where we failed and made mistakes previously then we're going to see the same results. If Machado is our guy, and so far RH is acting like it, it's worth an extra $70 million in contract value (which may never be paid) to get him and be done with it. We have no bad contracts after this season, if we can put ourselves in the playoffs for 3 or 4 years or win a title then there remains huge room for revenue growth, $7 million a year does not bother me when I've seen us spend $11 million a year on LaRoche.

[Balta1701]

If you are Machado's agent, what's the rush? Wouldn't you want to see if the teams that were willing to pony up the money for Harper and didn't land him, may want to spend on your client?

If the White Sox came in and met their price, and they weren't ready to take it, the White Sox could easily go elsewhere also.

[Dick Allen]

If the White Sox came in and met their price, and they weren't ready to take it, the White Sox could easily go elsewhere also.

Then that will be probably what happens. I would think if teams are budgeting for Harper and wind up losing out, they still have that money available to pay someone, so the motivation to grab an offer while they can is probably moot.

Edited January 10, 2018 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

If we're signing a 10 year contract with an opt-out, that's $7 million a year extra. That's the difference between what, $28 mil and $35 mil a year on paper?

 

We wasted that much money on Cabrera and LaRoche (well, would have on LaRoche had he not retired). If we're not going to learn our lessons from where we failed and made mistakes previously then we're going to see the same results. If Machado is our guy, and so far RH is acting like it, it's worth an extra $70 million in contract value (which may never be paid) to get him and be done with it. We have no bad contracts after this season, if we can put ourselves in the playoffs for 3 or 4 years or win a title then there remains huge room for revenue growth, $7 million a year does not bother me when I've seen us spend $11 million a year on LaRoche.

 

To the White Sox that is somewhere around 5% of their player spending budget on the top end. It is significant.

[Balta1701]

To the White Sox that is somewhere around 5% of their player spending budget on the top end. It is significant.

This is a great example of "Penny-wise, pound-foolish".

[Dick Allen]

This is a great example of "Penny-wise, pound-foolish".

So the plan is to make an offer right away great enough they cannot say no. If it ever was possible a possibility could be less than zero, this would be it.

[southsider2k5]

This is a great example of "Penny-wise, pound-foolish".

 

It is also a great example of what happened in Texas where they had Arod, but nothing else to surround him with.

[Dick Allen]

It is also a great example of what happened in Texas where they had Arod, but nothing else to surround him with.

The Sox at least have young talent to surround him with, but if they are as successful as hoped, and that success is to be sustained, they are all going to get expensive at the same time. It would be interesting to see how the White Sox did revenue-wise with a team that was really good for several years. They have had it before, but not in the additional WC era, and there always seemed to be something to derail it. Either a strike or major injuries.

 

The last time they rebuilt, a couple of major pieces fled when it was time to get paid. Black Jack got traded for a meager piece, sorry Lyle Mouton. Young Alex left, and the Boy Wonder wound up with the Mets.

[Balta1701]

The Sox at least have young talent to surround him with, but if they are as successful as hoped, and that success is to be sustained, they are all going to get expensive at the same time. It would be interesting to see how the White Sox did revenue-wise with a team that was really good for several years. They have had it before, but not in the additional WC era, and there always seemed to be something to derail it. Either a strike or major injuries.

 

The last time they rebuilt, a couple of major pieces fled when it was time to get paid. Black Jack got traded for a meager piece, sorry Lyle Mouton. Young Alex left, and the Boy Wonder wound up with the Mets.

Then you better win your title before that happens. That’s the billion dollar, franchise shaping question: do we win a title or not? That shapes your ad deals, ticket sales, probably even the next sale of the franchise. If you are worried about $5 million a year and it costs you a title, then you deserve to have the guys walk when they get too pricey for you. You will have failed to capitalize on the opportunity you created by the successful 2017 reloading.