Sox randomly linked to JD Martinez for some reason

[iamshack]

Great post and I 100% agree!

 

Let’s just say for fun that we can sign Martinez to a 5/$120M deal this offseason. Here’s a somewhat realistic projection of his value as a DH over the life of his contract, which represent his age 30 to 34 seasons:

 

fWAR. Value. Surplus.

2018: 4.0. $36M. $12M

2019: 4.0. $36M. $12M

2020: 3.5. $31M. $7M

2021: 3.0. $27M. $3M

2022: 2.5. $22M. ($2M)

 

Total: 19.0. $152M. $32M

19-22: 15.0. $116M. $20M

 

As you can see, the contract would provide roughly $20M in surplus value from 2019 to 2022. That would nearly offset his 2018 salary and make the entire deal basically a break-even proposition. However, such a move creates much more certainty for 2019 and likely makes us much more attractive to the big free agents next winter. I wouldn’t just go sign any free agent right now, but if Martinez is really going to settle for a 5 year deal at a reasonable AAV, we should most definitely take advantage of that market inefficiency.

Not only that, but we won’t lose a draft pick.

 

Additionally, I think a similar player next year or the year after would require a larger AAV to sign him due to market conditions. While you can get him for something like you mentioned this year, the same player or a worse player may cost you far more, exceeding any efficiencies you gain by aligning the timing.

 

I do respect the fact that we don’t want to get over anxious, and this is why I have very little interest in Yelich, for instance. But for a FA that doesn’t cost a draft pick, you can afford to stray from your timing a bit if the other factors outweigh the slight timing misalignment.

[iamshack]

Just to stress - you've projected him to be a better player in 2018, 2019, and 2020 than he was in any year of his career "other than 2017" if you're putting him as a DH only. You're saying that he'll be a better hitter at age 33 than he was at age 29 by 100 points of OPS.

 

Maybe he will be. But if you're putting him as primarily a DH, you've just assumed that he's going to continue doing what he did one time so far in his career to get that value out of him.

 

Hence why, frankly, I don't have any interest in playing this game.

To be fair though, JD’s career trajectory is not that of most MLB hitters at age 30. He figured things out late, and I think it’s perfectly reasonable, considering his skill set, that he would experience his prime performance years 2-3 years later than most guys.

[Hatchetman]

These 30 year old slugger free agents seem to fall off a cliff with their new team most of the time.

[Balta1701]

Not only that, but we won’t lose a draft pick.

 

Additionally, I think a similar player next year or the year after would require a larger AAV to sign him due to market conditions. While you can get him for something like you mentioned this year, the same player or a worse player may cost you far more, exceeding any efficiencies you gain by aligning the timing.

 

I do respect the fact that we don’t want to get over anxious, and this is why I have very little interest in Yelich, for instance. But for a FA that doesn’t cost a draft pick, you can afford to stray from your timing a bit if the other factors outweigh the slight timing misalignment.

If you're worried about costing a draft pick - the difference in average value between drafting #6 and #15 is comparable to the value of a 2nd round pick. Last year that would have taken an extra 7 wins to shift the draft spot by that much.

[iamshack]

If you're worried about costing a draft pick - the difference in average value between drafting #6 and #15 is comparable to the value of a 2nd round pick. Last year that would have taken an extra 7 wins to shift the draft spot by that much.

I’m not following what you are getting at here.

 

Are you saying signing Martinez this year would likely negate the value of not losing the pick because we would win more?

Edited January 18, 2018 by iamshack

[Chicago White Sox]

Just to stress - you've projected him to be a better player in 2018, 2019, and 2020 than he was in any year of his career "other than 2017" if you're putting him as a DH only. You're saying that he'll be a better hitter at age 33 than he was at age 29 by 100 points of OPS.

 

Maybe he will be. But if you're putting him as primarily a DH, you've just assumed that he's going to continue doing what he did one time so far in his career to get that value out of him.

 

Hence why, frankly, I don't have any interest in playing this game.

No, I’m projecting him to stay healthy if used primarily as a DH. WAR is a counting stat and Martinez has only played 120 games in three of his past four seasons. Maybe that’s a poor assumption, but I’d have to think keeping him off the field will cause him to miss less games. And if he can play close to 160 games and maintain a wRC+ of 150 (his average since 2014) or so, I feel pretty confident he can be a 4 WAR player for those first few seasons.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Balta1701]

I’m not following what you are getting at here.

Add the player who improves us in 2018 - you hurt the White Sox 2019 draft position. You don't cost yourself the draft pick in the 2nd round, but by making the draft round position worse, you ~ lose something comparable.

 

I don't think a 2nd round pick is a big deal myself, but if people are bringing it up, an extra 5 wins next year could easily cost the white sox something comparable in value.

[iamshack]

Add the player who improves us in 2018 - you hurt the White Sox 2019 draft position. You don't cost yourself the draft pick in the 2nd round, but by making the draft round position worse, you ~ lose something comparable.

 

I don't think a 2nd round pick is a big deal myself, but if people are bringing it up, an extra 5 wins next year could easily cost the white sox something comparable in value.

Yeah, that’s fair, but if anything, at the very least, JD offsets that increase in wins by not costing a pick. It’s another thing in favor of signing him even though he doesn’t necessarily align perfectly with the timeline.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Yeah, that’s fair, but if anything, at the very least, JD offsets that increase in wins by not costing a pick. It’s another thing in favor of signing him even though he doesn’t necessarily align perfectly with the timeline.

Good discussion. I think it's fairly obvious by the recent signings and trades for guys like Gillaspie and other 1B/power types is that the Sox want to find some guy who develops late with a boatload of power. I have to assume JD Martinez is on the Sox radar but only at a certain cost that Boras or JD would not be very happy accepting. We'll see how it plays out but if I had to guess he's going to get in the $150M range unless the team(s) that have supposedly already offered that much back down because he initially refused it. The power struggle between the GM's and Boras for Martinez services shall be extremely interesting and Boras usually wins.

[iamshack]

Good discussion. I think it's fairly obvious by the recent signings and trades for guys like Gillaspie and other 1B/power types is that the Sox want to find some guy who develops late with a boatload of power. I have to assume JD Martinez is on the Sox radar but only at a certain cost that Boras or JD would not be very happy accepting. We'll see how it plays out but if I had to guess he's going to get in the $150M range unless the team(s) that have supposedly already offered that much back down because he initially refused it. The power struggle between the GM's and Boras for Martinez services shall be extremely interesting and Boras usually wins.

The reports are that Boston offered him 5/100

[Balta1701]

This is an incredibly simplistic view of what is occurring right now on the market.

 

You have an outstanding player who is being undervalued due to a number of reasons, many of which are likely unique to this free agency period. Yes, I get that he is 30, and that he brings no value from the defensive side of the ball. And yes, I agree that players hitting FA around his age are likely to see length of deals decrease as baseball GMs realize that many players on the wrong side of 30, or probably more fairly, as they approach 35, are seeing a sharp decline in performance, particularly in a non-PED environment.

 

That being said, several large market teams are sitting out on premier FAs this year due to next year FA class, as well as to reset their luxury tax penalties. Additionally, many other teams simply are accepting that rebuilds are necessary and therefore, it makes no sense to sign expensive veterans. Finally, you have a few teams like the Giants and Blue Jays who feel like they are approaching the end of their windows, and thus, have no interest in long-term deals.

 

Then you have the White Sox and Phillies who have already begun rebuilds, have money, but are a little hesitant to go crazy in FA at the moment because they are not yet competitive enough to justify the expendititure at this stage.

 

I get it.

 

However, next year’s FA period will be ultra-competitive. Many large market teams, as well as some others that have been arranging their payrolls for YEARS for an opportunity to bid on a small handful of players will be all outbidding themselves. Machado and Harper will be the big prizes, and due to that competitiveness, I believe they will be paid significantly more than even reasonable projections suggest they should. Then there will be guys like Donaldson, who will happily take other significantly large deals because they will be consolation prizes.

 

The point of this is that even though a player may not align perfectly with our trajectory for winning, that doesn’t mean we should be so rigid as to not consider acquiring him, should other factors outweigh the timing. Simply because we have the cash does not mean we will have the ability to acquire the assets in FA that we need, when we need them, as if we are purchasing them from Amazon. Doing so will likely result in out of market deals that could very likely be worse than had we simply taken the opportunities in the market as they presented themselves.

 

I think Martinez may be one such opportunity.

One of the points I was pondering last night and did not have an opportunity to reply to is in here. To summarize your point - based on the fact that the Yankees and Dodgers are going to be out of the penalties assuming no other major moves this year, next year is the year that could turn into a serious "player's market" - that there will be more teams on the market than there are players.

 

I'm not 100% convinced by the point I'm about to make, but I think we should be skeptical of that view. Recent history argues the exact opposite in fact; the last 3 offseasons have seen a very different situation. The last time we saw a very strong crop of free agents with a number of teams willing to spend was after the 2015 offseason; there were a bunch of OFs on the market, including Heyward, Upton, Alex Gordon, and Cespedes, along with David Price, Zach Greinke, Chris Davis, Jordan Zimmerman, Cueto, Samardzija, Ian Desmond, Ben Zobrist, etc.

 

There were a bunch of teams who went out and bought players, including some unexpected ones like the Giants and Tigers. But what happened in the end? The year still became a buyers market at the end. Teams went out and got some guys like Heyward early, but then the last few OFs got stuck out there. Chris Davis got really good money, but he had to wait until January 21 to do it. Justin Upton waited until January 19. Yoenis Cespedes literally got stuck; he had to take a 1 year deal with the Mets and then hit the FA market again in 2016.

 

In 2016, we again saw guys get decent money, but it was again a buyers market. Encarnacion got good money, but on a somewhat short deal. Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista found basically no market for their services; Trumbo signed for under $40 million.

 

This offseason, what are we seeing again? We're talking about JD Martinez under the notion that it's a buyers market again. Hosmer is still out there. Logan Morrison is still out there. Moustakas is still out there.

 

To my eyes, this is 3 straight buyers markets. The more I sit back, the more I'm wondering if the reason the White Sox have made no moves on Garcia and Abreu is that they're expecting something similar in 2019; another buyers market where if they want to keep the guys they can. Personally I hate gambling like that so I'd say we should do something about them now, but watching this market develop it seems to make more sense to me.

 

So your case is that because the Dodgers and Yankees won't have the multi-year penalties, next year will be the exception of all exceptions. That is certainly possible and I can't rule that out. However I think there's an argument against that too. It's not just Machado and Harper next year. Those guys will get their money, but after them there is going to have to be money for Kershaw, Andrew Miller, Kimbrel - just those 5 we are probably talking over $1 billion dollars in possible contract value. Then you throw in Dozier, Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, AJ Pollock, Donaldson; there are going to be a huge number of assets available on that market as well. And just like we see right now with the Yankees and Dodgers, there are teams that in previous years were threats to buy these guys that will be cutting payroll - the Giants and the Tigers specifically come to mind.

 

Yes the Yankees and Dodgers will make their splash. One of them will get Harper, one of them will get something else big. Yes, Machado will get paid - I still think the White Sox have him if they want him, it just won't be cheap. But at the end of the list, once those teams blow through their big funds, I think it's entirely possible that, just like the last 3 years, there are several guys stuck at the end of the January with a market that has dried up, particularly the slugging type because that's where we see it the most. The big guys will get their big money, but the argument that you won't be able to find an exceptionally strong DH on the free agent market the next 2 offseasons for a surprisingly low price, if that's what you are looking for - that is at the very least inconsistent with what we've seen every year since 2015. JD Martinez may be the best of the bunch by a small amount, he may be the best bargain by a small amount, but I find it difficult to be 100% certain of that given recent history.

 

If it is going to happen that the market will finally run out of players, you're probably right next year has the best shot, with where the Dodgers and Yankees are, but my guess is it will play out a lot like 2015.

[southsider2k5]

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman 14h14 hours ago scott boras generally doesn't discuss offers or non offers, but he did say the report of a $100M five-year offer by boston for jd martinez is "not accurate." (me: that does seem off/improbable as an offer since cespedes got $27.5M per year)

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman 14h14 hours ago scott boras generally doesn't discuss offers or non offers, but he did say the report of a $100M five-year offer by boston for jd martinez is "not accurate." (me: that does seem off/improbable as an offer since cespedes got $27.5M per year)

Heyman is known to be used and abused by Boras. Of course the offers are way higher.

[OmarComing25]

Heyman is known to be used and abused by Boras. Of course the offers are way higher.

The original report came from Olney, not Heyman. And the offers might be higher but I'm skeptical that they're way higher, Boras isn't exactly an unbiased source. We still don't even know who else would put in a big offer for him besides Boston, there aren't any other obvious fits.

[Dick Allen]

The original report came from Olney, not Heyman. And the offers might be higher but I'm skeptical that they're way higher, Boras isn't exactly an unbiased source. We still don't even know who else would put in a big offer for him besides Boston, there aren't any other obvious fits.

It is what I am saying. Olney reports it, then Boras uses Heyman to say hey they actually are quite a bit higher.

[iamshack]

One of the points I was pondering last night and did not have an opportunity to reply to is in here. To summarize your point - based on the fact that the Yankees and Dodgers are going to be out of the penalties assuming no other major moves this year, next year is the year that could turn into a serious "player's market" - that there will be more teams on the market than there are players.

 

I'm not 100% convinced by the point I'm about to make, but I think we should be skeptical of that view. Recent history argues the exact opposite in fact; the last 3 offseasons have seen a very different situation. The last time we saw a very strong crop of free agents with a number of teams willing to spend was after the 2015 offseason; there were a bunch of OFs on the market, including Heyward, Upton, Alex Gordon, and Cespedes, along with David Price, Zach Greinke, Chris Davis, Jordan Zimmerman, Cueto, Samardzija, Ian Desmond, Ben Zobrist, etc.

 

There were a bunch of teams who went out and bought players, including some unexpected ones like the Giants and Tigers. But what happened in the end? The year still became a buyers market at the end. Teams went out and got some guys like Heyward early, but then the last few OFs got stuck out there. Chris Davis got really good money, but he had to wait until January 21 to do it. Justin Upton waited until January 19. Yoenis Cespedes literally got stuck; he had to take a 1 year deal with the Mets and then hit the FA market again in 2016.

 

In 2016, we again saw guys get decent money, but it was again a buyers market. Encarnacion got good money, but on a somewhat short deal. Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista found basically no market for their services; Trumbo signed for under $40 million.

 

This offseason, what are we seeing again? We're talking about JD Martinez under the notion that it's a buyers market again. Hosmer is still out there. Logan Morrison is still out there. Moustakas is still out there.

 

To my eyes, this is 3 straight buyers markets. The more I sit back, the more I'm wondering if the reason the White Sox have made no moves on Garcia and Abreu is that they're expecting something similar in 2019; another buyers market where if they want to keep the guys they can. Personally I hate gambling like that so I'd say we should do something about them now, but watching this market develop it seems to make more sense to me.

 

So your case is that because the Dodgers and Yankees won't have the multi-year penalties, next year will be the exception of all exceptions. That is certainly possible and I can't rule that out. However I think there's an argument against that too. It's not just Machado and Harper next year. Those guys will get their money, but after them there is going to have to be money for Kershaw, Andrew Miller, Kimbrel - just those 5 we are probably talking over $1 billion dollars in possible contract value. Then you throw in Dozier, Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, AJ Pollock, Donaldson; there are going to be a huge number of assets available on that market as well. And just like we see right now with the Yankees and Dodgers, there are teams that in previous years were threats to buy these guys that will be cutting payroll - the Giants and the Tigers specifically come to mind.

 

Yes the Yankees and Dodgers will make their splash. One of them will get Harper, one of them will get something else big. Yes, Machado will get paid - I still think the White Sox have him if they want him, it just won't be cheap. But at the end of the list, once those teams blow through their big funds, I think it's entirely possible that, just like the last 3 years, there are several guys stuck at the end of the January with a market that has dried up, particularly the slugging type because that's where we see it the most. The big guys will get their big money, but the argument that you won't be able to find an exceptionally strong DH on the free agent market the next 2 offseasons for a surprisingly low price, if that's what you are looking for - that is at the very least inconsistent with what we've seen every year since 2015. JD Martinez may be the best of the bunch by a small amount, he may be the best bargain by a small amount, but I find it difficult to be 100% certain of that given recent history.

 

If it is going to happen that the market will finally run out of players, you're probably right next year has the best shot, with where the Dodgers and Yankees are, but my guess is it will play out a lot like 2015.

The bolded is in part, imo, due to the fact that teams have been looking ahead to next year’s FA class and planning ahead.

 

You could be right, and that there will be bats like Martinez on the market over the course of the next few years, when the timing is better, for reasonable prices. But I wouldn’t count on it.

 

Martinez is in the top 7 of all active players over the course of the last 3 seasons in WRC+. When he plays, he hits at an elite level. Those type of elite hitters do not come along often.

 

Obvioiusly we don’t know what the cost will ultimately be, but if it is anything like what is being reported, then I trust the White Sox will check in and make a determination whether it could be something to consider, even though it would be a bit early.