Sox randomly linked to JD Martinez for some reason

[wrathofhahn]

Well that makes much more sense laid out like that - but Sheets is no where near the bigs for sure.

 

Yeah, I should have been clearer I meant more then this year. JD if signed would be clogging up the DH spot for 5 years at the very least.

 

So at that point if Abreu is still here then you have no space for a 1B/DH. Also another thing it prevents is keeping Abreu or Moncada in the lineup if you want to give them a day off fielding. I guess in Abreu case you could play JD there but with Moncada you'd have to sit him.

 

Most 2B play 130-140 games. Sanchez and Davidson give us the flexibility to rotate out Moncada to the DH spot when he needs rest.

[username]

Boston supposedly only offering him around 5 years $100M. No wonder the Sox are interested in that range. Even if he’s a fringe corner guy/DH he’s a top 10 hitter in baseball.

[Balta1701]

Boston supposedly only offering him around 5 years $100M. No wonder the Sox are interested in that range. Even if he’s a fringe corner guy/DH he’s a top 10 hitter in baseball.

"Edwin Jackson has put up $75 million in value in the past 4 years and we only have to pay him $52 million for the next 4. No wonder the Cubs are interested" - Prior to the 2013 season.

[Chicago White Sox]

"Edwin Jackson has put up $75 million in value in the past 4 years and we only have to pay him $52 million for the next 4. No wonder the Cubs are interested" - Prior to the 2013 season.

You sure love picking one random example and using it as the end all be all.

 

Do you have any objective reasoning for why this guy couldn’t be an elite DH for his age 30 to 34 seasons?

[Chicago White Sox]

Boston supposedly only offering him around 5 years $100M. No wonder the Sox are interested in that range. Even if he’s a fringe corner guy/DH he’s a top 10 hitter in baseball.

Exactly, if he’a a top 10 hitter, you do that deal in a heartbeat IMO. Don’t even care if he’s simply a DH going forward. He’s been nearly David Ortiz good the last few years.

[Balta1701]

You sure love picking one random example and using it as the end all be all.

 

Do you have any objective reasoning for why this guy couldn’t be an elite DH for his age 30 to 34 seasons?

WTF is an "Elite DH"? Like that's the worst statement I want to see to describe a guy we're signing. "He's a wonderful player in the tiny, limited role we want him for!"

 

Jackson was worth his money in 2013. It was still a terrible move.

[Chicago White Sox]

WTF is an "Elite DH"? Like that's the worst statement I want to see to describe a guy we're signing. "He's a wonderful player in the tiny, limited role we want him for!"

 

Jackson was worth his money in 2013. It was still a terrible move.

How exactly is 600+ plate appearances a "tiny, limited" role? If he can be a top 10 hitter, who the f*** cares if he plays the field? You think the Red Sox regret having David Ortiz? How about us with Jim Thome? Martinez is a terrible fielder anyways, so moving to DH full-time might actually improve his value. I'll happily pay $20M/year for an elite hitter regardless of where he plays.

[iamshack]

WTF is an "Elite DH"? Like that's the worst statement I want to see to describe a guy we're signing. "He's a wonderful player in the tiny, limited role we want him for!"

 

Jackson was worth his money in 2013. It was still a terrible move.

Come on, you are just trying to start a fight.

 

Hitting is certainly not a tiny, limited role. Yes, his defense leaves a lot to be desired and therefore, DHing him takes away from some of his potential value. But his bat absolutely is elite. And in a League where you are allowed to have a dude who only hits, that is valuable.

 

Do we really think that Frank Thomas provided much value defensively?

 

Would you like to have another hitter that can put up Frank Thomas-like numbers?

[Chicago White Sox]

Since Balta only speaks in WAR, can someone calculate what Martinez's fWAR would be if he was simply a DH? I honestly think the runs he cost his team defensively might be worse than the DH positional adjustment.

[Balta1701]

Since Balta only speaks in WAR, can someone calculate what Martinez's fWAR would be if he was simply a DH? I honestly think the runs he cost his team defensively might be worse than the DH positional adjustment.

In 2016 it would have been better for him if he never played the field by about 1/2 a win. In 2017 he would have been about 1/2 a win worse.

[Chicago White Sox]

In 2016 it would have been better for him if he never played the field by about 1/2 a win. In 2017 he would have been about 1/2 a win worse.

Do you mind sharing your math? I'd love to see how all this is calculated to maybe do this myself in the future.

[Balta1701]

Do you mind sharing your math? I'd love to see how all this is calculated to maybe do this myself in the future.

If I read this right, his fielding was "-17.2" in 2016 and "-7.7" in 2017. The positional adjustment for RF/LF is -7.5, while it's -17.5 for a full time DH. So in 2016 he was genuinely awful defense - so bad that the extra run of negative position adjustment offsets the shift to full time DH, but in 2017 he wasn't bad enough defensively to make up for that.

[iamshack]

He’s a 3-5 WAR player just as a DH. That’s my take.

[Balta1701]

He’s a 3-5 WAR player just as a DH. That’s my take.

2016 him and any of his previous seasons is a ~2.5 WAR player as a DH (Edwin Encarnacion level). 2017 him is a ~4 WAR player as a DH (Nelson Cruz level).

[Bob Sacamano]

Hmmm he wouldn't cost a draft pick.

[bmags]

I kinda thought the Phillies or Braves would try him.

[Balta1701]

I kinda thought the Phillies or Braves would try him.

I'm somewhat surprised the D-Backs or Rockies aren't in on him if we're talking about NL teams, but there's no one who matches better than the Red Sox.

[Chicago White Sox]

I'll happily pay $20M/year for a 3.5 to 4.0 WAR DH if that's what we think he is going forward.

 

Honestly think he could be a Nelson Cruz type steal in this market.

Edited January 17, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[iamshack]

2016 him and any of his previous seasons is a ~2.5 WAR player as a DH (Edwin Encarnacion level). 2017 him is a ~4 WAR player as a DH (Nelson Cruz level).

WAR is generally worth around $9m currently.

 

What part of you has a problem with signing him?

 

Say 6/$130m?

[Balta1701]

WAR is generally worth around $9m currently.

 

What part of you has a problem with signing him?

 

Say 6/$130m?

The part where we're not competitive in 2018 and if we can find a DH who can put up 1.5 WAR in 2019 out of several minimum contract players who could very possibly do that, this would be a less than efficient use of our resources.

 

This is, to me, the "Stay the course" part of the game. It's hard. Even Theo got seduced. Stay the course, play the kids for the entire year, and I promise, next offseason, everyone out there who someone wants to sign to fill a hole, I'm going to say "Let's do this!". We have 1 more year of doing this right.

[GreenSox]

I'm somewhat surprised the D-Backs or Rockies aren't in on him if we're talking about NL teams.

Because he's terrible defensively....that takes its toll.

It's kind of too bad that this FA market didn't come up next year, when the Sox had a better handle on which of their players are keepers. There may be some bargains for various reasons (including the stronger class next year). It's just too early for the Sox to discard players, because some of these guys who showed improvement last year, will another big step this year...just don't know who.

[iamshack]

The part where we're not competitive in 2018 and if we can find a DH who can put up 1.5 WAR in 2019 out of several minimum contract players who could very possibly do that, this would be a less than efficient use of our resources.

 

This is, to me, the "Stay the course" part of the game. It's hard. Even Theo got seduced. Stay the course, play the kids for the entire year, and I promise, next offseason, everyone out there who someone wants to sign to fill a hole, I'm going to say "Let's do this!". We have 1 more year of doing this right.

This is an incredibly simplistic view of what is occurring right now on the market.

 

You have an outstanding player who is being undervalued due to a number of reasons, many of which are likely unique to this free agency period. Yes, I get that he is 30, and that he brings no value from the defensive side of the ball. And yes, I agree that players hitting FA around his age are likely to see length of deals decrease as baseball GMs realize that many players on the wrong side of 30, or probably more fairly, as they approach 35, are seeing a sharp decline in performance, particularly in a non-PED environment.

 

That being said, several large market teams are sitting out on premier FAs this year due to next year FA class, as well as to reset their luxury tax penalties. Additionally, many other teams simply are accepting that rebuilds are necessary and therefore, it makes no sense to sign expensive veterans. Finally, you have a few teams like the Giants and Blue Jays who feel like they are approaching the end of their windows, and thus, have no interest in long-term deals.

 

Then you have the White Sox and Phillies who have already begun rebuilds, have money, but are a little hesitant to go crazy in FA at the moment because they are not yet competitive enough to justify the expendititure at this stage.

 

I get it.

 

However, next year’s FA period will be ultra-competitive. Many large market teams, as well as some others that have been arranging their payrolls for YEARS for an opportunity to bid on a small handful of players will be all outbidding themselves. Machado and Harper will be the big prizes, and due to that competitiveness, I believe they will be paid significantly more than even reasonable projections suggest they should. Then there will be guys like Donaldson, who will happily take other significantly large deals because they will be consolation prizes.

 

The point of this is that even though a player may not align perfectly with our trajectory for winning, that doesn’t mean we should be so rigid as to not consider acquiring him, should other factors outweigh the timing. Simply because we have the cash does not mean we will have the ability to acquire the assets in FA that we need, when we need them, as if we are purchasing them from Amazon. Doing so will likely result in out of market deals that could very likely be worse than had we simply taken the opportunities in the market as they presented themselves.

 

I think Martinez may be one such opportunity.

[Chicago White Sox]

This is an incredibly simplistic view of what is occurring right now on the market.

 

You have an outstanding player who is being undervalued due to a number of reasons, many of which are likely unique to this free agency period. Yes, I get that he is 30, and that he brings no value from the defensive side of the ball. And yes, I agree that players hitting FA around his age are likely to see length of deals decrease as baseball GMs realize that many players on the wrong side of 30, or probably more fairly, as they approach 35, are seeing a sharp decline in performance, particularly in a non-PED environment.

 

That being said, several large market teams are sitting out on premier FAs this year due to next year FA class, as well as to reset their luxury tax penalties. Additionally, many other teams simply are accepting that rebuilds are necessary and therefore, it makes no sense to sign expensive veterans. Finally, you have a few teams like the Giants and Blue Jays who feel like they are approaching the end of their windows, and thus, have no interest in long-term deals.

 

Then you have the White Sox and Phillies who have already begun rebuilds, have money, but are a little hesitant to go crazy in FA at the moment because they are not yet competitive enough to justify the expendititure at this stage.

 

I get it.

 

However, next year’s FA period will be ultra-competitive. Many large market teams, as well as some others that have been arranging their payrolls for YEARS for an opportunity to bid on a small handful of players will be all outbidding themselves. Machado and Harper will be the big prizes, and due to that competitiveness, I believe they will be paid significantly more than even reasonable projections suggest they should. Then there will be guys like Donaldson, who will happily take other significantly large deals because they will be consolation prizes.

 

The point of this is that even though a player may not align perfectly with our trajectory for winning, that doesn’t mean we should be so rigid as to not consider acquiring him, should other factors outweigh the timing. Simply because we have the cash does not mean we will have the ability to acquire the assets in FA that we need, when we need them, as if we are purchasing them from Amazon. Doing so will likely result in out of market deals that could very likely be worse than had we simply taken the opportunities in the market as they presented themselves.

 

I think Martinez may be one such opportunity.

Great post and I 100% agree!

 

Let’s just say for fun that we can sign Martinez to a 5/$120M deal this offseason. Here’s a somewhat realistic projection of his value as a DH over the life of his contract, which represent his age 30 to 34 seasons:

 

fWAR. Value. Surplus.

2018: 4.0. $36M. $12M

2019: 4.0. $36M. $12M

2020: 3.5. $31M. $7M

2021: 3.0. $27M. $3M

2022: 2.5. $22M. ($2M)

 

Total: 19.0. $152M. $32M

19-22: 15.0. $116M. $20M

 

As you can see, the contract would provide roughly $20M in surplus value from 2019 to 2022. That would nearly offset his 2018 salary and make the entire deal basically a break-even proposition. However, such a move creates much more certainty for 2019 and likely makes us much more attractive to the big free agents next winter. I wouldn’t just go sign any free agent right now, but if Martinez is really going to settle for a 5 year deal at a reasonable AAV, we should most definitely take advantage of that market inefficiency.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[southsider2k5]

I get the feeling our future DH is already on this roster. I am guessing Jose Abreu is the next Paul Konerko and is here for a decade plus. He will eventually slide off of 1B when one of our hitters needs the spot in the field.

[Balta1701]

Great post and I 100% agree!

 

Let’s just say for fun that we can sign Martinez to a 5/$120M deal this offseason. Here’s a somewhat realistic projection of his value as a DH over the life of his contract, which represent his age 30 to 34 seasons:

 

fWAR. Value. Surplus.

2018: 4.0. $36M. $12M

2019: 4.0. $36M. $12M

2020: 3.5. $31M. $7M

2021: 3.0. $27M. $3M

2022: 2.5. $22M. ($2M)

 

Total: 19.0. $152M. $32M

19-22: 15.0. $116M. $20M

 

As you can see, the contract would provide roughly $20M in surplus value from 2019 to 2022. That would nearly offset his 2018 salary and make the entire deal basically a break-even proposition. However, such a move creates much more certainty for 2019 and likely makes us much more attractive to the big free agents next winter. I wouldn’t just go sign any free agent right now, but if Martinez is really going to settle for a 5 year deal at a reasonable AAA, we should most definitely take advantage of that market inefficiency.

Just to stress - you've projected him to be a better player in 2018, 2019, and 2020 than he was in any year of his career "other than 2017" if you're putting him as a DH only. You're saying that he'll be a better hitter at age 33 than he was at age 29 by 100 points of OPS.

 

Maybe he will be. But if you're putting him as primarily a DH, you've just assumed that he's going to continue doing what he did one time so far in his career to get that value out of him.

 

Hence why, frankly, I don't have any interest in playing this game.