Marco Paddy & our Failures in the LatAm Market

[Chicago White Sox]

So I’m not sure if this will be a popular opinion, but I’m going to say it anyways. Marco Paddy has failed to live up to expectations. For years we said we had to give him more and more time to evaluate his performance given the age of the players he’d be signing. It’s now been seven full years with him in charge of our international operations and I’m still waiting to see his impact in full season ball.

 

In fact, I’m struggling to identify how many of his guys have even made it to full season ball, let alone have been successful. I don’t believe a single signing has reached AA with the exception of the one traced for James Shields (not Paddy’s fault there obviously). That’s pretty damn sad if true. One of his first signings is Luis Martinez and while he’s flashed at times, he has not been able to get over the high A hump. Other early signings that ultimately fizzled out in A ball were Johan Cruz & Antonio Rodriguez. I can’t really think of many other signings from those first few classes to really do much of anything, although I’m sure I’m missing a couple.

 

Obviously Adolfo has real promise, but when compared to his peers in Eloy Jimenez & Gleybar Torres, he’s way behind the development curve (partly due to injuries admittedly). But he’s just one guy (and probably our most prolific signing) and that’s kind of the point. Is there even one other LatAm signing not named Luis Robert that would be a clear top 30 prospect at this point? The closest IMO would be Amado Nunez and he’s very debatable. To me that’s clear evidence the program has been an object failure.

 

So to avoid the TLDR posts, I’m greatly concerned these failures will impact our rebuild in the long-run unless we see sudden & vast improvements. Teams like the Cubs, Yankees, & Astros have been successful because they’ve been able to use their LatAm signings to fill holes & maintain their winning ways. Will be able to do the same without the prospect depth these LatAm signings are supposed to provide? What say you soxtalk?

Edited January 14, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[GreenSox]

So to avoid the TLDR posts, I’m greatly concerned these failures will impact our rebuild in the long-run unless we see sudden & vast improvements. Teams like the Cubs, Yankees, & Astros have been successful because they’ve been able to use their LatAm signings to fill holes & maintain their winning ways. Will be able to do the same without the prospect depth these LatAm signings are supposed to provide? What say you soxtalk?

Those orgs (add Rangers and Padres) use international signings as a 2nd draft. The Sox really haven't for the most part, which has contributed to a lackluster farm over the years.

That said, don't forget Robert...the Sox just used their international assets in a different way.

Edited January 14, 2018 by GreenSox

[bmags]

I continue to be nervous about the lack of impact from last am compared to other orgs, but I’m honestly still in wait and see mode:

 

- he who shall not be named was one of the slam dunk signings recently, not paddy’s fault he was traded.

- The 2016 class has started off the most promising in terms of production than any I remember

- most importantly, I think we underrate how much foundation needed to be built up. Some literally, like the DR facility, but rangers and Yankees and others are utilizing relationships decades in the making with people that funnel players their way. Paddy literally had to start from scratch, convince people that the Sox were now different, and after two or so classes with that in place, we now are sitting a few classes off.

 

I have hopes for Lenyn Sosa and Anthony Coronado who both made it stateside at 17 and performed relatively well. The 14 and 15 classes, HWMNBN and Adolfo aside, have been disappointing SO far. Still could do something.

 

But we’ve really struggled to find up the middle talent.

[Chicago White Sox]

Those orgs (add Rangers and Padres) use international signings as a 2nd draft. The Sox really haven't for the most part, which has contributed to a lackluster farm over the years.

That said, don't forget Robert....he's basically the equivalent of an entire round of signings (maybe 2). Whether that's the best use of assets remains to be seen. But they did use the international market.

The Sox have been spending their bonus pool money for the most part since Paddy joined the organization. Sure, they haven’t gone into the penalty prior to Robert, but they have signed a ton of guys and very few have “worked out”. I can’t believe there is another organization with only 2 to 3 LatAm signings in their top 30 prospect list other than maybe the Orioles. We’ve given Paddy seven full years and I’m not seeing the transformation I was expecting.

 

I think a case be made that it isn’t a scouting issue and more of a development one, which would suggest reasons for optimism with Getz in charge. Having said, I turn back to the Franklin Reyes signing. He was our biggest get in his class (dollars wise) and he almost immediately had to be moved to 1B as a 17 year old. That’s pretty pathetic IMO and supports the notion Paddy may not be as good of a scout as we were all hoping. And while Paddy most definitely deserves credit for signing Tatis, did Hahn talk to him at all about including him in the Shields trade? If so, did Paddy have any inkling of what we might of had in this kid? Again, just another question mark that gives me cause for concern.

 

And one last point, but what LatAm signings do we think might jump to Kannapolis next year? I’m sure there will be a reliever or two, but after that who else might make the jump? Carlos Perez probably. Maybe Nunez? Will they rush Reyes, Sosa, Beltre, or Coronado? Again, where is the progress?

[bmags]

I don’t disagree with any of that. I don’t see anyone but Perez and solarzano in A, maybe they push up nunez mid season.

 

I guess Reyes could. Zangari is probably in GF. Forgetting our 8th rounder but he’s probably AZL again. Don’t remember a kanny 1b ahead of him.

[bmags]

Also this is nit picky but it’s been more realistically 6 years for paddy, with our 2013 classes onward being a fair judgment.

[caulfield12]

Nestor Molina...haha.

 

It is strange that we have Moncada, Jimenez, Robert and Lopez (four Top 50 guys)...along with Abreu, but 90% of that can be attributed to KW, Hahn and Renteria. Unless Paddy was somehow involved in the Avi Garcia deal?

 

Yolmer? Scouting Leury Garcia? Minaya? Omar Narvaez?

 

Who was the one who scouted Quintana with the Yankees again?

Edited January 14, 2018 by caulfield12

[oldsox]

Nestor Molina...haha.

 

It is strange that we have Moncada, Jimenez, Robert and Lopez (four Top 50 guys)...along with Abreu, but 90% of that can be attributed to KW, Hahn and Renteria. Unless Paddy was somehow involved in the Avi Garcia deal?

 

Yolmer? Scouting Leury Garcia? Minaya? Omar Narvaez?

 

Who was the one who scouted Quintana with the Yankees again?

"Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while"...... I think that sums up how we got Quintana. Just got lucky.

[Nokona]

Fernando Tatis Jr is a top 50 prospect and rising.

 

Luis Robert is a top 25 prospect.

 

Micker Adolfo is righting the ship and showing his talent.

 

He's doing just fine.

[Dick Allen]

He has been around for 6 years. I once read where the average DR prospect takes at least 7 years to develop, so at the very least, he isn't ahead of the curve, To be fair he took over an operation that was probably as low as you can go. I thin he has a couple more years at least before you can say he failed though. Some of these guys have to develop. But it is hard to pick out a 15 or 16 year old and say future star major leaguer. It's hard in any sport. I would imagine basketball would be the easiest. Lebron is a no brainer, but take these guys when they are sophomores and juniors in high school and project them in one of the hardest if not the hardest sport to project, is something where everyone fails. If the Sox didn't trade for Shields and all things remained the same, this thread probably does not exist. I do now at one of the seminars I was at during Soxfest last year, they were really projecting a Lat Am breakout in 2017. I don't think it happened to the scale they were hoping, maybe this year, but their development staff seemed pretty confident their LatAm signings would soon become household names to White Sox fans.

[SoxAce]

Fernando Tatis Jr looks pretty good.

[bmags]

He has been around for 6 years. I once read where the average DR prospect takes at least 7 years to develop, so at the very least, he isn't ahead of the curve, To be fair he took over an operation that was probably as low as you can go. I thin he has a couple more years at least before you can say he failed though. Some of these guys have to develop. But it is hard to pick out a 15 or 16 year old and say future star major leaguer. It's hard in any sport. I would imagine basketball would be the easiest. Lebron is a no brainer, but take these guys when they are sophomores and juniors in high school and project them in one of the hardest if not the hardest sport to project, is something where everyone fails. If the Sox didn't trade for Shields and all things remained the same, this thread probably does not exist. I do now at one of the seminars I was at during Soxfest last year, they were really projecting a Lat Am breakout in 2017. I don't think it happened to the scale they were hoping, maybe this year, but their development staff seemed pretty confident their LatAm signings would soon become household names to White Sox fans.

 

When Paddy was hired I think most said “it will be 10 years before we really see impact” and I think reality is the guy also was never given a “super class” of 15+ guys that other orgs had. Harder when your success rate depends on hitting on 33% of your million dollar signings instead of 10%.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

When Paddy was hired I think most said "it will be 10 years before we really see impact" and I think reality is the guy also was never given a "super class" of 15+ guys that other orgs had. Harder when your success rate depends on hitting on 33% of your million dollar signings instead of 10%.

 

And it is much harder when you aren't signing anyone from the top of classes, but more like in the 25-30 range on most years.

[Chicago White Sox]

He has been around for 6 years. I once read where the average DR prospect takes at least 7 years to develop, so at the very least, he isn't ahead of the curve, To be fair he took over an operation that was probably as low as you can go. I thin he has a couple more years at least before you can say he failed though. Some of these guys have to develop. But it is hard to pick out a 15 or 16 year old and say future star major leaguer. It's hard in any sport. I would imagine basketball would be the easiest. Lebron is a no brainer, but take these guys when they are sophomores and juniors in high school and project them in one of the hardest if not the hardest sport to project, is something where everyone fails. If the Sox didn't trade for Shields and all things remained the same, this thread probably does not exist. I do now at one of the seminars I was at during Soxfest last year, they were really projecting a Lat Am breakout in 2017. I don't think it happened to the scale they were hoping, maybe this year, but their development staff seemed pretty confident their LatAm signings would soon become household names to White Sox fans.

To me it’s not about a failure to sign a future star, but the fact that Paddy’s signings aren’t even developing enough to crack our top 30. I haven’t really seen a reason for optimism unless you really believe in last year’s class. I hope I’m wrong and we start seeing some of these guys finally make an impact in full season ball. I just don’t think we’ll be able maintain a reasonably strong system long-run unless we see massive improvement in our LatAm development.

[caulfield12]

And it is much harder when you aren't signing anyone from the top of classes, but more like in the 25-30 range on most years.

 

How many of the prior year guys in Adolfo’s spot/ranking have made it to AA/AAA or the major leagues?

[bmags]

And it is much harder when you aren't signing anyone from the top of classes, but more like in the 25-30 range on most years.

 

But is this Paddy’s strategy or Hahn’s?

[Dick Allen]

But is this Paddy’s strategy or Hahn’s?

From what I have heard at Soxfest seminars, and read , it seems to be something in which they agree.

[southsider2k5]

But is this Paddy's strategy or Hahn's?

 

I am sure it is coming from the budgetary angle, and Paddy doesn't really have much of a choice.

[Thomas_Ventura_Roberts]

He has been around for 6 years. I once read where the average DR prospect takes at least 7 years to develop, so at the very least, he isn't ahead of the curve, To be fair he took over an operation that was probably as low as you can go. I thin he has a couple more years at least before you can say he failed though. Some of these guys have to develop. But it is hard to pick out a 15 or 16 year old and say future star major leaguer. It's hard in any sport. I would imagine basketball would be the easiest. Lebron is a no brainer, but take these guys when they are sophomores and juniors in high school and project them in one of the hardest if not the hardest sport to project, is something where everyone fails. If the Sox didn't trade for Shields and all things remained the same, this thread probably does not exist. I do now at one of the seminars I was at during Soxfest last year, they were really projecting a Lat Am breakout in 2017. I don't think it happened to the scale they were hoping, maybe this year, but their development staff seemed pretty confident their LatAm signings would soon become household names to White Sox fans.

 

 

This is completely true. When you are signing guys at the average age of 16 and when you started at rock bottom, it is going to take awhile. Right now, his early returns are Tatis (since traded), Adolfo, and Roberts. We shall see. Again, if he joined the organization in November 2011, that is 7 years; however, one would not have expected immediate signings that 1st spring. That means he has had "6 real classes." Given an average signing age of 16 years, that means his first real class is hitting the age 22. Getting signings is not something one is going to do overnight: getting Tatis, Adolfo, and Roberts is a healthy start. The Sox also are on records as going for the less obvious signings of guys with upside potential but not as sure things as the big money signings.

 

[caulfield12]

I'm not sure how much he deserves credit for Luis Robert, at least any more than KW, Hahn or Renteria...the main point was simply our willingness to spend a huge amount of money there.

 

On the other side of the coin, our Dominican connections and reputation were completely devastated by the Wilder affair, and the South American bonus babies in Brazil...so that particular country was always going to be the biggest challenge to get back up and running effectively.

 

The biggest area of disappointment is probably Venezuela, but many organizations have pulled out of that country, compared to their presence a decade ago. It's also, notably, a country that the Astros dominated for many years with their camps/academies/winter programs.

Edited January 15, 2018 by caulfield12

[bmags]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018...xqlfjTqBoqoI.97

 

Astros top ten. 5-9 all international signings with 5 and 6 from 2016. It's frustrating to consistently say with the white sox "we won't know for several more years" consistently with our intl guys when the other successful teams we are trying to emulate see returns much faster.

[Donaldo]

How much of the "failure" can be attributed to player development within the organization?

[Thad Bosley]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018...xqlfjTqBoqoI.97

 

Astros top ten. 5-9 all international signings with 5 and 6 from 2016. It's frustrating to consistently say with the white sox "we won't know for several more years" consistently with our intl guys when the other successful teams we are trying to emulate see returns much faster.

The 2016 international draft is a particularly frustrating one. Ten teams were in the so-called “penalty box” that year and couldn’t sign anyone for more than $300K. The typical big spenders including the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, and both L.A. teams were among those ten. Several other teams then took advantage of the big spenders being on the sidelines and swooped in and gobbled up the top 30 prospects with multiple signings. The Padres led that charge with eight or nine signings of those top 30, with one of those players now in the top 100 MLB prospects listing. There are two or three other players from that draft also in the top 100 list now as well. Other teams like the Nationals, Cardinals, A’s, Astros, and Braves were similarly active, and now most of their 2016 signings are featured somewhere in those teams’ respective top 20 prospects listings.

 

Meanwhile, the Sox didn’t sign even one of those 30 players. Not one.

[Chicago White Sox]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018...xqlfjTqBoqoI.97

 

Astros top ten. 5-9 all international signings with 5 and 6 from 2016. It's frustrating to consistently say with the white sox "we won't know for several more years" consistently with our intl guys when the other successful teams we are trying to emulate see returns much faster.

This is exactly what I’m talking about. I get Paddy had to build our capabilities from the ground up, but how long do we give him a free pass for that? IMO, we should have already seen seven or eight guys start cracking our top 30. I’m not even talking guys in the top half of the list, but even super young guys with talent/tools and moderate success in rookie ball should be able to find a spot in the 20 to 30 range in our system. Instead we have just one guy in our top 15 (Adolfo) and maybe two others in the top 30 (Martinez & Sosa). Even if you include Tatis we’re way behind the curve (and yes I’m purposely excluding the $50M Robert signing). We definitely need to start seeing some of these kids hit full season ball before I think we’ve made any real progress in this area.

[Chicago White Sox]

How much of the "failure" can be attributed to player development within the organization?

I definitely think it’s part of it, but still feel like our scouting and/or approach has been flawed. Not going into the penalty box and stockpiling young talent has hurt us immensely IMO. I’m just not sure I’ve been very impressed with most of our signings over the past few years. Franklin Reyes being moved to 1B from basically the get-go and showing almost no signs for hitting is a perfect example of what I’m talking about.