Cold Stove - Free Agents Still on the table

[Balta1701]

Reed is easily better than anybody the White Sox have in their bullpen now. With the young starters the team has now you would think the organization would want somebody like Reed to close out the games. As of now this 2018 White Sox bullpen is really looking bad.

You're 100% right the bullpen is looking bad. This is exactly where the 2018 White Sox should be. I know i know "losing is bad and so on", but seriously, making this bullpen better to win more games in 2018 doesn't get the White Sox where they need to go. You make the bullpen better and maybe get some prospects by trading Reed, you make the draft pick worse next year.

 

Play the kids. We have 1 more crappy rebuilding year to play through, commit to it, and then in 2019 I'll sign anyone you want that fills a need. Anyone.

[Jack Parkman]

Honestly with the market tilting greatly toward buyers, I'd be willing to consider trading some of the back end top 10 guys and some other guys with upside for available players with control. Honestly, I think there could be another deal with the Cubs in the future, with the Sox swapping some pitching prospects for ML ready hitters. They have too many hitters, Sox have a ton of pitching depth. I think it makes too much sense, similar to the Q deal.

[Balta1701]

Honestly with the market tilting greatly toward buyers, I'd be willing to consider trading some of the back end top 10 guys and some other guys with upside for available players with control. Honestly, I think there could be another deal with the Cubs in the future, with the Sox swapping some pitching prospects for ML ready hitters. They have too many hitters, Sox have a ton of pitching depth. I think it makes too much sense, similar to the Q deal.

I'd actually say this is backwards right now - the White Sox have too many ML ready hitters. They acquired a bunch of AAAA caliber players last year in the Swarzak, Robertson, and Jennings trades, and they have a bunch of AAAA caliber guys of their own. Right now we have more IFs than we have room for and more OFs than we have room for in the big leagues and AAA - which is why it's really important to play these guys this year, so that we can whittle down to a few needs for the next offseason.

 

We have pitchers throughout the organization, but we're not busting at the seams with major leaguers, at least not yet. Throwing in injuries like Rodon, we're not going to have a rotation that is overflowing until at least 2020, and that's if everything goes well. Frankly, we could use more pitching depth at the lower levels.

[Jack Parkman]

I'd actually say this is backwards right now - the White Sox have too many ML ready hitters. They acquired a bunch of AAAA caliber players last year in the Swarzak, Robertson, and Jennings trades, and they have a bunch of AAAA caliber guys of their own. Right now we have more IFs than we have room for and more OFs than we have room for in the big leagues and AAA - which is why it's really important to play these guys this year, so that we can whittle down to a few needs for the next offseason.

 

We have pitchers throughout the organization, but we're not busting at the seams with major leaguers, at least not yet. Throwing in injuries like Rodon, we're not going to have a rotation that is overflowing until at least 2020, and that's if everything goes well. Frankly, we could use more pitching depth at the lower levels.

If Hansen and Kopech force the issue by midseason, and Rodon returns then they suddenly have 6 pitchers to see if they're starters for 5 spots. Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Kopech, Hansen. Might actually be a good time to try a 6 man rotation to keep innings down. I do agree they have a ton of AAAA guys right now. But if they are actually AAAA guys, what does it matter? People get hurt in ST, and they might be able to finagle someone with upside from a team desperate for help at a position where a player got hurt. No big loss if they have to be DFA, and someone would probably give up something for the guys who don't make the team.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

If Hansen and Kopech force the issue by midseason, and Rodon returns then they suddenly have 6 pitchers to see if they're starters for 5 spots. Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Kopech, Hansen. Might actually be a good time to try a 6 man rotation to keep innings down.

Hansen will not be forcing the issue in 2018. He has 68 innings above low-A ball. He's in the position Kopech was last year - he'll get a nearly full year in BHam and possibly a callup to Charlotte late if he earns it. By 2019 they could be talking about 6 pitchers, but that's a whole lot of things going right. Name one team that is 6/6 in developing pitchers from AAA to the Bigs with no failures and no injuries. If somehow that top 5 is clicking in 2019, then not only will it be useful to have Hansen as the 6th starter to fill in when someone does hit the DL, but I won't be mad putting him in the bullpen in September and October.

[Jack Parkman]

Hansen will not be forcing the issue in 2018. He has 68 innings above low-A ball. He's in the position Kopech was last year - he'll get a nearly full year in BHam and possibly a callup to Charlotte late if he earns it. By 2019 they could be talking about 6 pitchers, but that's a whole lot of things going right. Name one team that is 6/6 in developing pitchers from AAA to the Bigs with no failures and no injuries. If somehow that top 5 is clicking in 2019, then not only will it be useful to have Hansen as the 6th starter to fill in when someone does hit the DL, but I won't be mad putting him in the bullpen in September and October.

I think they might be able to be more aggressive with Hansen than they were with Kopech because Hansen has more pro innings in 2017 alone than Kopech had entering 2017. Kopech only threw ~125 pro innings before last season due to injury and being a HS draftee. I think Hansen might be up for a cup of coffee in September this year, but if he really dominates AA and AAA by August, he might force the issue.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

https://sports.yahoo.com/cubs-know-waiting-...-155434272.html

Cubs know waiting for Bryce Harper and next winter's insane free-agent class is affecting baseball's offseason

 

 

Are the White Sox better off going after Donaldson next off-season or Arenado after 2019?

 

Interesting decisions to be made, because it seems like it's going to be almost impossible to land Machado...as that would fly in the face of allocating a large chunk of money instead of 3-4 major improvements simultaneously. Abreu/Avi situations need to be sorted.

 

Blackmon would be attractive, but a five year deal seems risky if you're waiting on Luis Robert. Still, he might be the best "fall-back" outfield target after Harper. Cruz and McCutcheon are too old, and Jimenez is supposed to be the next Cruz, right?

 

A.Miller/Britton/Cody Allen/Kimbrel, they're probably going to be overpaying for a closer (see Robertson in 2014) in all likelihood, although there's always a possibility Burdi or Lopez ends up doing the job internally.

 

Andrus might be in play if Tim Anderson doesn't fully rebound....Beltre on a two year deal, but there's that huge risk you overpay so late in his career.

Edited January 16, 2018 by caulfield12

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

https://sports.yahoo.com/cubs-know-waiting-...-155434272.html

Cubs know waiting for Bryce Harper and next winter's insane free-agent class is affecting baseball's offseason

 

 

Are the White Sox better off going after Donaldson next off-season or Arenado after 2019?

 

Interesting decisions to be made, because it seems like it's going to be almost impossible to land Machado...as that would fly in the face of allocating a large chunk of money instead of 3-4 major improvements simultaneously. Abreu/Avi situations need to be sorted.

 

Blackmon would be attractive, but a five year deal seems risky if you're waiting on Luis Robert. Still, he might be the best "fall-back" outfield target after Harper. Cruz and McCutcheon are too old, and Jimenez is supposed to be the next Cruz, right?

 

A.Miller/Britton/Cody Allen/Kimbrel, they're probably going to be overpaying for a closer (see Robertson in 2014) in all likelihood, although there's always a possibility Burdi or Lopez ends up doing the job internally.

 

Andrus might be in play if Tim Anderson doesn't fully rebound....Beltre on a two year deal, but there's that huge risk you overpay so late in his career.

 

I really hope the Sox don't go after Donaldson as a desperation plan B. I still have faith the Sox are going to at the very least make a competitive offer to Machado (if he is indeed their #1 target). It certainly would be funny if they landed Harper instead.

[caulfield12]

For the millionth time in the last year, BREAK THE INTERNET would be used by sports editors around the world if Harper signed with the White Sox.

 

I'm almost starting to think that would make a lot more sense from a PR/marketing standpoint, that extra $75-125 million that Harper will receive (as long as he stays healthy in 2018)...Machado really had a struggle for half of 2017, plus there's the issue of him playing SS over 3B.

 

With the White Sox, he would have to play 3rd or that would mean they've given up on Tim Anderson, which carries the tiniest likelihood after they signed him to that long-term deal.

[Balta1701]

https://sports.yahoo.com/cubs-know-waiting-...-155434272.html

Cubs know waiting for Bryce Harper and next winter's insane free-agent class is affecting baseball's offseason

 

 

Are the White Sox better off going after Donaldson next off-season or Arenado after 2019?

 

Interesting decisions to be made, because it seems like it's going to be almost impossible to land Machado...as that would fly in the face of allocating a large chunk of money instead of 3-4 major improvements simultaneously. Abreu/Avi situations need to be sorted.

 

Blackmon would be attractive, but a five year deal seems risky if you're waiting on Luis Robert. Still, he might be the best "fall-back" outfield target after Harper. Cruz and McCutcheon are too old, and Jimenez is supposed to be the next Cruz, right?

 

A.Miller/Britton/Cody Allen/Kimbrel, they're probably going to be overpaying for a closer (see Robertson in 2014) in all likelihood, although there's always a possibility Burdi or Lopez ends up doing the job internally.

 

Andrus might be in play if Tim Anderson doesn't fully rebound....Beltre on a two year deal, but there's that huge risk you overpay so late in his career.

The Chicago White sox have put themselves in a position where they 100% ought to be able to deal with the Garcia and Abreu situations AND add Machado, and frankly add Kimbrel, if that's what they want to do. That was the point of this. They should be very disappointed if they fail in this. They have 0 bad contracts. They should have >$130 million to spend.

 

The White Sox have the most young talent in major league baseball, without any serious second place contender. The White Sox have 0 bad contracts after James Shields is gone. The White Sox have 10+ contenders for the 3-4 positions that aren't filled by a top 20 in MLB prospect. This team is F***ing loaded right now. It needs time for these guys to develop and to filter out some of the chaff. That's the point of this year. Filter it down, decide on 2-3 targets for this offseason, then go win 205 games in 2019 and 2020 combined.

 

There's no reason why we can't do that other than cowardice.

[caulfield12]

The Chicago White sox have put themselves in a position where they 100% ought to be able to deal with the Garcia and Abreu situations AND add Machado, and frankly add Kimbrel, if that's what they want to do. That was the point of this. They should be very disappointed if they fail in this. They have 0 bad contracts. They should have >$130 million to spend.

 

The White Sox have the most young talent in major league baseball, without any serious second place contender. The White Sox have 0 bad contracts after James Shields is gone. The White Sox have 10+ contenders for the 3-4 positions that aren't filled by a top 20 in MLB prospect. This team is F***ing loaded right now. It needs time for these guys to develop and to filter out some of the chaff. That's the point of this year. Filter it down, decide on 2-3 targets for this offseason, then go win 205 games in 2019 and 2020 combined.

 

There's no reason why we can't do that other than cowardice.

 

And old way of doing business would certainly be going after Donaldson or Beltre for 3B, and getting either of them 2-3 years too late for a much lower price than the first tier talent, then having them completely fall apart in 2020.

 

We paid fair market value for Dunn, LaRoche, Cabrera and Robertson (at the time, it seemed a slight overpay, the market has come back to make it look more reasonable)...so something like Machado OR Harper AND a closer seems like the play, at least at the current moment. Getting Arenado for 2020 would be fine, too.

 

Depending on what happens with Abreu, there's always a chance you go bargain shopping for a DH (like the Indians tried with Encarnacion) close to the downside of his career. Nelson Cruz would be the prime example, based on the numbers he's put up in that huge stadium (yet one feels he has to be close to that career cliff).

 

And then hopefully Rodon picks a clear direction in his career so that we know what we have going into next year. Affording a Harper/Machado/Arenado, ace closer AND a frontline starter would be something that only the Cubs could pay for at one time. The Cubs really lucked out last year getting Wade Davis for a bargain deal (in retrospect) but now they're in a bit of a quandary.

Edited January 16, 2018 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

This is the point that the "anti-rebuild" folks can't seem to grasp. Yes, we are rooting for losses in 2017 and 2018. Yes, spending money right now is foolish. Yes, acquiring as many prospects as possible is vital.

 

But it's all for this. None of us are going to give the front office a pass if they miss out on some mega free agents, and don't spend big when the time comes. 72 wins will not be acceptable in 2020-2025.

 

Yes, because it's going to be important to choose at least one collegiate player in 2018 or 2019 with those two higher first round picks that can reasonably be expected to contribute to the second half of the "competitive window."

 

Right now, the Cubs, because they started at least one year early, have had 3 opportunities and would seem to have that wide open window through 2020, and likely 2021. That's 6-7 years, and then they could always add Bryce Harper, but their starting rotation, bullpen and Heyward contract would probably really get in the way at that point.

 

The opposite (market-wise) would be the Royals, with a late charge in 2013, World Series in 2014/15 and "competitive" teams in 2016 (injuries wiped out any realistic opportunity) and 2017.

 

So, at the very least, you're shooting for AT LEAST 4 years, if not 5-6. 2020-2024, with the possibility of that whole path being expedited to 2019 if Moncada, Jimenez, Kopech, Hansen and Robert explode on the scene earlier than projected and you sign all your free agent targets next offseason like we did with the Robertson/Cabrera/LaRoche class (obviously, you have to hit on them successfully this time).

Edited January 16, 2018 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

I'd rather play Sanchez, Anderson, and Moncada from day 1 and see if they can hold onto the jobs.

 

I don't disagree strongly, but generally speaking, I do think we still need flippables to collect assets. BA and Razzball both summarized our system by saying "strong up top; sharp decline after 10 or 15," and I tend to agree. I think there's room for collection all the way up until the first "compete" year.

[caulfield12]

I don't disagree strongly, but generally speaking, I do think we still need flippables to collect assets. BA and Razzball both summarized our system by saying "strong up top; sharp decline after 10 or 15," and I tend to agree. I think there's room for collection all the way up until the first "compete" year.

 

Another good question is how much is "first half 2017" Leury Garcia actually worth? It's hard to imagine either 3B exploding because of their various limitations.

 

Or Delmonico, Cordell and Tilson...?

 

Will they try to flip Castillo or do they want him around for 2019 as well?

 

The biggest wild card in every scenario (contending in 2019) right now is Carlos Rodon, then Tim Anderson...followed closely by Giolito/Lopez/Fulmer.

 

Finally, final decisions on Abreu/Avi Garcia.

[Jerksticks]

I don't disagree strongly, but generally speaking, I do think we still need flippables to collect assets. BA and Razzball both summarized our system by saying "strong up top; sharp decline after 10 or 15," and I tend to agree. I think there's room for collection all the way up until the first "compete" year.

I think after this year the Sox will be the only team where publications are forced to discuss the Top 40 Prospects. The breakouts at the back end are going to blow everyone’s mind.

[southsider2k5]

I don't disagree strongly, but generally speaking, I do think we still need flippables to collect assets. BA and Razzball both summarized our system by saying "strong up top; sharp decline after 10 or 15," and I tend to agree. I think there's room for collection all the way up until the first "compete" year.

 

The Sox asking prices were much heavier on top end talent at the expense of guys who would be at the B level. They have added a lot of A guys, and a ton of C guys.

[BamaDoc]

I think after this year the Sox will be the only team where publications are forced to discuss the Top 40 Prospects. The breakouts at the back end are going to blow everyone’s mind.

 

 

The Yankees made some roster influenced trades and still lost around 5 players in the rule 5 draft. Other systems (Braves, Pads,A's etc) are deep. We are unique in we had valuable assets to trade and accelerate a rebuild. In my years, I have never seen more teams doing obvious rebuilds. The next couple years a lot of teams will win a lot or lose a lot. I hope we have a lot of minor league players explode and think there are several who could. We also have a fair number for whom this year will represent somewhat of a last chance to pop or they will get left/over run by the younger prospects.

[southsider2k5]

The Sox asking prices were much heavier on top end talent at the expense of guys who would be at the B level. They have added a lot of A guys, and a ton of C guys.

 

Should also mention that the ask of the top level guys was at the expense of more quantity of B level guys. IE we asked for 1 A level guy when we could have had 3 B's. So while the top of the system looks amazing, it means that we still lack mid-range depth and it also limits the number of breakout candidates while putting more pressure on the top 10 to not bust. Almost all of the C level guys who were brought in have major flaws that will limit their ceilings.

[bmags]

Frankly I think our drafting should be providing a better 15-30, so lets hope this year we see jumps from players from latam and the past two drafts, and we dont' need to rely on only filling up our farm via trade.

[southsider2k5]

Frankly I think our drafting should be providing a better 15-30, so lets hope this year we see jumps from players from latam and the past two drafts, and we dont' need to rely on only filling up our farm via trade.

 

LA should be starting to pay dividends very soon. There are guys in the lowest levels who are just starting to push into full season ball. That is a big source of optimism for me right now. This last draft seemed to be a lot of high floor guys at the top of the draft. We'll have to wait and see how the middle and lower rounds turn out once guys start hitting full season ball as well.

[Balta1701]

Should also mention that the ask of the top level guys was at the expense of more quantity of B level guys. IE we asked for 1 A level guy when we could have had 3 B's. So while the top of the system looks amazing, it means that we still lack mid-range depth and it also limits the number of breakout candidates while putting more pressure on the top 10 to not bust. Almost all of the C level guys who were brought in have major flaws that will limit their ceilings.

 

 

Frankly I think our drafting should be providing a better 15-30, so lets hope this year we see jumps from players from latam and the past two drafts, and we dont' need to rely on only filling up our farm via trade.

One other thing I think that is being missed is that the White Sox had opportunities last year to add guys who would probably have fallen in that 10-15 range, in deals like the Swarzak and Jennings deals. If the White Sox had wanted to get them, they could have targeted guys at the lower levels of the minors, guys who were picked in the 2nd or 3rd rounds the last 2 years, and those guys would have filled in that 10-15 range.

 

They explicitly chose to do something else. The White Sox realized they had another type of asset; they were moving so many big league players out of their system that they had a lot of playing time available at AAA and in the bigs, and they had a lot of open 40 man roster spots. They could instead target guys who were either blocked or who teams had soured on, acquire them, and give them a shot. That's how we wound up with Cordell, Gillaspie, Viera, maybe to a lesser extent Polo. Throw in some of the guys from our org like Engel, Delmonico, Leury - and that logjam at AAA/Big league level is what we have in lieu of depth in the 10-15 range in our prospect lists.

 

Like "B" level prospects, not all of them are going to turn out, but there's very likely a couple of good ballplayers in there. Good teams in the past have found great players this route - giving guys a shot who were blocked elsewhere. This is how the Cubs turned Arrieta into a stud - took a guy the Orioles had soured on and gave him a shot. The key thing we have to do is actually play and develop them. If we acquire these guys and we don't give them a shot, then we have done this exactly backwards. Hence, this is why I go after every idea like "JD Martinez is undervalued we should go after him!" like we're seeing this offseason. Heck, JD Martinez was one of those guys once. We made a decision that we were going to give these guys a shot when we acquired them. If we don't give these guys a shot, then we screwed up every one of those trades.

[Dick Allen]

One other thing I think that is being missed is that the White Sox had opportunities last year to add guys who would probably have fallen in that 10-15 range, in deals like the Swarzak and Jennings deals. If the White Sox had wanted to get them, they could have targeted guys at the lower levels of the minors, guys who were picked in the 2nd or 3rd rounds the last 2 years, and those guys would have filled in that 10-15 range.

 

They explicitly chose to do something else. The White Sox realized they had another type of asset; they were moving so many big league players out of their system that they had a lot of playing time available at AAA and in the bigs, and they had a lot of open 40 man roster spots. They could instead target guys who were either blocked or who teams had soured on, acquire them, and give them a shot. That's how we wound up with Cordell, Gillaspie, Viera, maybe to a lesser extent Polo. Throw in some of the guys from our org like Engel, Delmonico, Leury - and that logjam at AAA/Big league level is what we have in lieu of depth in the 10-15 range in our prospect lists.

 

Like "B" level prospects, not all of them are going to turn out, but there's very likely a couple of good ballplayers in there. Good teams in the past have found great players this route - giving guys a shot who were blocked elsewhere. This is how the Cubs turned Arrieta into a stud - took a guy the Orioles had soured on and gave him a shot. The key thing we have to do is actually play and develop them. If we acquire these guys and we don't give them a shot, then we have done this exactly backwards. Hence, this is why I go after every idea like "JD Martinez is undervalued we should go after him!" like we're seeing this offseason. We made a decision that we were going to give these guys a shot when we acquired them. If we don't give these guys a shot, then we screwed up every one of those trades.

 

While I agree JD Martinez is not a good idea right now, who are these lower level prospects that would have been in the 10-15 range the White Sox turned down for Jennings and Swarzak?

 

[Balta1701]

While I agree JD Martinez is not a good idea right now, who are these lower level prospects that would have been in the 10-15 range the White Sox turned down for Jennings and Swarzak?

You know darn well that's an unanswerable hypothetical question, and you also know darn well that would have been fair value for those guys.

[Dick Allen]

You know darn well that's an unanswerable hypothetical question, and you also know darn well that would have been fair value for those guys.

No I don't. You are saying they had a choice. You don't know that as a fact. The guys they received have plenty of flaws and are either pretty blocked or of the age it's time to either put up or cut bait. To say a 19 year old 10-15 range prospect could have easily been substituted is pure speculation, and for many reasons, perhaps not true. There's nothing wrong with picking these guys up by the basket full, there is certainly going to be another JD Martinez or Jose Bautista or Justin Turner that becomes really good after scuffling, but teams would rather give these older guys up than the younger ones identified with potential.

Edited January 16, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

No I don't. You are saying they had a choice. You don't know that as a fact. The guys they received have plenty of flaws and are either pretty blocked or of the age it's time to either put up or cut bait. To say a 19 year old 10-15 range prospect could have easily been substituted is pure speculation, and for many reasons, perhaps not true. There's nothing wrong with picking these guys up by the basket full, there is certainly going to be another JD Martinez or Jose Bautista or Justin Turner that becomes really good after scuffling, but teams would rather give these older guys up than the younger ones identified with potential.

Here's Cordell coming in pre-2017 at #12 in the Brewers system, found another list with him at #15. Here's Gillaspie at #5 in the Rays system coming into 2017. To fail to recognize what the White Sox did with these deals is pure naivety.