Cold Stove - Free Agents Still on the table

[he gone.]

I feel like I may be beating a dead horse as I continuously drive this narrative. It’s just such a crazy year out there. I feel like you could field a team of bad news bears with these FA’s and turn in a playoff team. There’s just that much talent available. Two things I get:

 

- Let the kids play. They are on rookie contracts for cheap, let them play, see what we have. No reason to bring in vets and pay them their minimum.

- We likely aren’t going to be the Twins of last year and surprise folks. (I would counter that with if the Royals don’t acquire some players we’ll have the Tigers and Royals as really, really poor teams. The same way the Twins loaded up on W’s against us and the Tigers last year and snuck in)

 

The link is to the alphabetical list of FA’s remaining. I picked a few I like. Feel free to counter my arguments.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/freeagents/_/type/available

 

Colby Rasmus – with the amount of OF’s we have, this may not have upside, especially at 30 years old. But this is a guy when he gets 400-500AB’s is guaranteed to play average defense at all 3 positions and can hit 25HR’s for you. Can probably pick up on a

Jurickson Profar (not FA – but trade candidate) – played 1b, 2b, ss, 3b and is still what? 25 years old. Needs out of TX. A guy who hit the majors at 19. Perceived to be an attitude problem, but hey, I’ll take a shot on him all day every day. Flip them whoever and let’s see if it works out.

Trevor Cahill – if you look at his advanced numbers he to me is my #1 FA I’d like to sign. Coop and Duncan could make this guy into a really nice piece moving forward.

Andrew Bailey – His numbers don’t lie. Love adding bullpen pieces.

RA Dickey – Older. Probably a 1 year deal if he feels like playing. But an innings eater and last year after he got going was actually really serviceable. Just another good veteran guy in the clubhouse who does it the right way.

AJ Griffin – I’d say to look at his career numbers. Really serviceable. Injury history. Lower on the arms I’d take a flier on.

Francisco Liriano – talk about an up and down guy. And Coop couldn’t really fix him first go round with the Sox. But the Pirates did. He’s the classic “a tweak away” from being really good. Or maybe you just utilize him in the bullpen. Would think it would be cheap to bring him in and the type guy that could be flipped for a decent amount if he becomes dominant in the bullpen under Coop and Duncan

J. Lucroy – this is a guy I wanted more than Castillo. But maybe you can find him a spot platooning at C, 1B and DH. I think you could find him 120 games with that method. He flourishes? You can easily flip him for prospects.

Ben Revere – a guy who has basically hit .300 consistently minus a really down years with the Nats in 2016. Can swipe you 25-30 bags with enough playing time and doesn’t strikeout

Hector Santiago – From memory, and not numbers, I remember his time with the Sox being pretty good.

Ichiro – okay stay with me on this one – it’s an outside the box idea and frankly I have no idea of Ichiro’s English. But going back like 5? Years when KW mentioned that he floated the idea of Konerko as a player manager? Ichiro said he wants to play for as long as possible. What about an idea of him as 4OF + coach? I know this is a wacky one. But in the same way Abreu is teaching these guys by example I’ve heard that Ichiro is the type of guy to be at the ballpark 6 hours before the game like Thome was and has crazy preparation. I can’t see it hurting to have a guy like that teaching your young talent.

 

My overall thought process simplified:

 

- Engel, Willy Garcia – see 5% and 0% chance long term respectively. Engel for sure if he could figure out his bat.. but don’t think itll happen

- Demonico, Tilson, Cordell – Yes I’d like to see them play. I don’t necessarily think a Rasmus or Revere is better long term – just food for thought

- I’m bigger on the pitching aspect. I feel like as proven last year at the deadline that you can flip an arm for something (Jennings/Swarzak) but not a bat (Melky) as easily. I also think Shields/Gonzalez etc. won’t net you a prospect no matter what, so if you can bring in someone else that DOES possibly net you something? You do it. Plus those two aren’t in your long term plans either. Also we owe nothing to those guys in the bullpen. So bring in as many arms as possible.

- Which leaves Lucroy and Profar – if you can convince Lucroy to come over I’d love to have him split between C/1B/DH. Profar is has just too much upside and can play so many positions that I would love that gamble.

 

I get not all these guys have a fit, but I can’t see the cost being inhibitive. I also know we aren’t trying to win this year – but is it so crazy TO TRY to win? Instead of schlepping Shields out there every 5th day, why not move him to middle relief/mop up duty? Replace him with an RA Dickey or Franky Liriano, Cahill, Santiago? Never can have too many arms and Rodon is down likely til June. Also a lot of these FA’s may be inclined to take a Spring Training invite and minor league deal… especially with a team like the Sox that is supposed to be bad. Gives them the best shot to earn a spot.

 

[Dick Allen]

I feel like I may be beating a dead horse as I continuously drive this narrative. It’s just such a crazy year out there. I feel like you could field a team of bad news bears with these FA’s and turn in a playoff team. There’s just that much talent available. Two things I get:

 

- Let the kids play. They are on rookie contracts for cheap, let them play, see what we have. No reason to bring in vets and pay them their minimum.

- We likely aren’t going to be the Twins of last year and surprise folks. (I would counter that with if the Royals don’t acquire some players we’ll have the Tigers and Royals as really, really poor teams. The same way the Twins loaded up on W’s against us and the Tigers last year and snuck in)

 

The link is to the alphabetical list of FA’s remaining. I picked a few I like. Feel free to counter my arguments.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/freeagents/_/type/available

 

Colby Rasmus – with the amount of OF’s we have, this may not have upside, especially at 30 years old. But this is a guy when he gets 400-500AB’s is guaranteed to play average defense at all 3 positions and can hit 25HR’s for you. Can probably pick up on a

Jurickson Profar (not FA – but trade candidate) – played 1b, 2b, ss, 3b and is still what? 25 years old. Needs out of TX. A guy who hit the majors at 19. Perceived to be an attitude problem, but hey, I’ll take a shot on him all day every day. Flip them whoever and let’s see if it works out.

Trevor Cahill – if you look at his advanced numbers he to me is my #1 FA I’d like to sign. Coop and Duncan could make this guy into a really nice piece moving forward.

Andrew Bailey – His numbers don’t lie. Love adding bullpen pieces.

RA Dickey – Older. Probably a 1 year deal if he feels like playing. But an innings eater and last year after he got going was actually really serviceable. Just another good veteran guy in the clubhouse who does it the right way.

AJ Griffin – I’d say to look at his career numbers. Really serviceable. Injury history. Lower on the arms I’d take a flier on.

Francisco Liriano – talk about an up and down guy. And Coop couldn’t really fix him first go round with the Sox. But the Pirates did. He’s the classic “a tweak away” from being really good. Or maybe you just utilize him in the bullpen. Would think it would be cheap to bring him in and the type guy that could be flipped for a decent amount if he becomes dominant in the bullpen under Coop and Duncan

J. Lucroy – this is a guy I wanted more than Castillo. But maybe you can find him a spot platooning at C, 1B and DH. I think you could find him 120 games with that method. He flourishes? You can easily flip him for prospects.

Ben Revere – a guy who has basically hit .300 consistently minus a really down years with the Nats in 2016. Can swipe you 25-30 bags with enough playing time and doesn’t strikeout

Hector Santiago – From memory, and not numbers, I remember his time with the Sox being pretty good.

Ichiro – okay stay with me on this one – it’s an outside the box idea and frankly I have no idea of Ichiro’s English. But going back like 5? Years when KW mentioned that he floated the idea of Konerko as a player manager? Ichiro said he wants to play for as long as possible. What about an idea of him as 4OF + coach? I know this is a wacky one. But in the same way Abreu is teaching these guys by example I’ve heard that Ichiro is the type of guy to be at the ballpark 6 hours before the game like Thome was and has crazy preparation. I can’t see it hurting to have a guy like that teaching your young talent.

 

My overall thought process simplified:

 

- Engel, Willy Garcia – see 5% and 0% chance long term respectively. Engel for sure if he could figure out his bat.. but don’t think itll happen

- Demonico, Tilson, Cordell – Yes I’d like to see them play. I don’t necessarily think a Rasmus or Revere is better long term – just food for thought

- I’m bigger on the pitching aspect. I feel like as proven last year at the deadline that you can flip an arm for something (Jennings/Swarzak) but not a bat (Melky) as easily. I also think Shields/Gonzalez etc. won’t net you a prospect no matter what, so if you can bring in someone else that DOES possibly net you something? You do it. Plus those two aren’t in your long term plans either. Also we owe nothing to those guys in the bullpen. So bring in as many arms as possible.

- Which leaves Lucroy and Profar – if you can convince Lucroy to come over I’d love to have him split between C/1B/DH. Profar is has just too much upside and can play so many positions that I would love that gamble.

 

I get not all these guys have a fit, but I can’t see the cost being inhibitive. I also know we aren’t trying to win this year – but is it so crazy TO TRY to win? Instead of schlepping Shields out there every 5th day, why not move him to middle relief/mop up duty? Replace him with an RA Dickey or Franky Liriano, Cahill, Santiago? Never can have too many arms and Rodon is down likely til June. Also a lot of these FA’s may be inclined to take a Spring Training invite and minor league deal… especially with a team like the Sox that is supposed to be bad. Gives them the best shot to earn a spot.

Wellington Castillo was signed for a reason other than catching. He's here to attract Machado. But because of his presence, they aren't going to bring in a Lucroy. They are going to roll with him, and when Machado is signed by someone, then all bets with him will be off.

[Bob Sacamano]

Wellington Castillo was signed for a reason other than catching. He's here to attract Machado. But because of his presence, they aren't going to bring in a Lucroy. They are going to roll with him, and when Machado is signed by someone, then all bets with him will be off.

 

They're still going to have to offer the most money to land Machado. Doubt he would leave millions of dollars on the table to play with a guy who was a teammate for one season. I'm sure Machado has friends on most teams.

Edited February 13, 2018 by soxfan2014

[Eminor3rd]

Trevor Cahill – if you look at his advanced numbers he to me is my #1 FA I’d like to sign. Coop and Duncan could make this guy into a really nice piece moving forward.

 

Cahill is a good idea. He probably can't stay healthy as a rotation piece at this point, but if you want to talk about a guy who could be ideal to become the next Miller/Devenski/McCullers multi-inning reliever, he's a great candidate. And if we're honest about the level of uncertainty in our rotation (given all the rookies and the James Shields'), we could really use a guy who can chew up 2-4 innings on a regular basis whilst actually keeping us in the game.

 

Great fit, IMO.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[Bob Sacamano]

Cahill is a good idea. He probably can't stay healthy as a rotation piece at this point, but if you want to talk about a guy who could be ideal to become the next Miller/Devenski/McCullers multi-inning reliever, he's a great candidate. And if we're honest about the level of uncertainty in our rotation (given all the rookies and the James Shields'), we could really use a guy who can chew up 2-4 innings on a regular basis whilst actually keeping us in the game.

 

Great fit, IMO.

 

Yeah I like this idea too.

[Dick Allen]

They're still going to have to offer the most money to land Machado. Doubt he would leave millions of dollars on the table to play with a guy who was a teammate for one season. I'm sure Machado has friends on most teams.

I agree with that. He's here for more attraction with a similar offer, although with these kind of signings, it does seem one team always seems to break from the pack and go crazy. I also agree Machado probably knows people on all the teams, but I think these guys do have some sort of bond.

[he gone.]

When I brought up the list I was actually really surprised to see Cahill. Forgot he was even out there.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/i-guess-now...cahill-is-good/

 

Good article on him.

 

I mean, he did awful after this. But if he can rediscover that magic with Coop and Duncan you might have yourself a very affordable piece for the future. I'd go so far to offer him a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option and stick him in the bullpen. Type of piece that could really pay off in a few years.

 

The other name I liked, although not a FA was Profar. I have no idea his trade value anymore, but man would I like to see him given a shot to play 100-130 games at the MLB level. He is super talented. Had a higher walk rate (11% v 9%) than strikeout rate. That's gold to me.

Also hit .300 in the minors last year, puts the ball in play, can play the diamond in many positions. I mean, he made the majors in 2012! At 19! Getting paid $1mm this year.

[Bob Sacamano]

When I brought up the list I was actually really surprised to see Cahill. Forgot he was even out there.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/i-guess-now...cahill-is-good/

 

Good article on him.

 

I mean, he did awful after this. But if he can rediscover that magic with Coop and Duncan you might have yourself a very affordable piece for the future. I'd go so far to offer him a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option and stick him in the bullpen. Type of piece that could really pay off in a few years.

 

The other name I liked, although not a FA was Profar. I have no idea his trade value anymore, but man would I like to see him given a shot to play 100-130 games at the MLB level. He is super talented. Had a higher walk rate (11% v 9%) than strikeout rate. That's gold to me.

Also hit .300 in the minors last year, puts the ball in play, can play the diamond in many positions. I mean, he made the majors in 2012! At 19! Getting paid $1mm this year.

 

Guy makes so much sense for the Padres (or any team with an opening at 2B). He needs to go somewhere where he can play every day and possibly build trade value in a year/year and a half. He still has 3 years of control.

Edited February 13, 2018 by soxfan2014

[caulfield12]

Profar is competing with three guys for the LF job in Texas.

The question is who would the Rangers want back in return?

 

If he could play 3b, that would be huge, as well. The more talent, the better.

[he gone.]

Profar is competing with three guys for the LF job in Texas.

The question is who would the Rangers want back in return?

 

If he could play 3b, that would be huge, as well. The more talent, the better.

 

Profar can quite literally play the whole infield and some outfield too. He's Zobrist (not really, but kind of). I find it so odd that hes buried in TX and that no other team has come calling.

[Bob Sacamano]

JDM update: The Red Sox’ current top offer to Martinez is “in the vicinity” of only $100MM, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/j-d-...rs-tuesday.html

[Dick Allen]

JDM update: The Red Sox’ current top offer to Martinez is “in the vicinity” of only $100MM, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/j-d-...rs-tuesday.html

Poor one dimensional guy trying to get by on only $100 million. He had a great year, but odds of a repeat are slim to none IMO. He's still a greater hitter, just not the 2017 version. I think I'd take the money. I don't think he would find much better chances of contention than Boston.

[Bob Sacamano]

Poor one dimensional guy trying to get by on only $100 million. He had a great year, but odds of a repeat are slim to none IMO. He's still a greater hitter, just not the 2017 version. I think I'd take the money. I don't think he would find much better chances of contention than Boston.

 

I wonder if they reduced to $100 mill from the $125 mill. Or if the $125 mill offer even existed.

[Dick Allen]

I wonder if they reduced to $100 mill from the $125 mill. Or if the $125 mill offer even existed.

No sense bidding against yourself. Baseball owners get called for collusion, but really, as great of hitter as Martinez is, he is horrid in the field, and moving forward, only going to get worse. That pretty much eliminates NL teams. The AL teams who would/could pay are sort of filled where he plays. Boston is about it. It's just good negotiating. You want to give him a fair wage, but why blow yourself out of the water? I think $100 million is more than reasonable. Maybe 5 years ago he gets $150 million or so, but for him, timing is unfortunate. I still think he'll be able to make ends meet.

[GreenSox]

- Demonico, Tilson, Cordell – Yes I’d like to see them play. I don’t necessarily think a Rasmus or Revere is better long term – just food for thought

Rasmus or Revere probably aren't better short-term either. Which is why there isn't a line to sign them...most teams have interesting 2nd tier prospects like Delmonico et al (While I am a sucker for sweet Septembers, I'm really looking forward to seeing Delmonico play this year).

Edited February 13, 2018 by GreenSox

[he gone.]

Rasmus or Revere probably aren't better short-term either. Which is why there isn't a line to sign them...most teams have interesting 2nd tier prospects like Delmonico et al (While I am a sucker for sweet Septembers, I'm really looking forward to seeing Delmonico play this year).

 

 

If you attached either Rasmus or Revere's line to Delcomnico or Cordell/Tilson I think we would be quite happy. Both have their holes though no doubt.

 

Rasmus could probably be expected to post a Todd Frazier lite type of line. .230 or so BA, strikeout way too much. Knock 20-25HR's and play all OF positions. I guess when I type that out it doesn't sound so great... haha

 

Revere probably has the better promise. I think you could expect .290BA, limited strikeouts and 25SB.

 

But definitely get it I guess. The more I run their stat lines & the more I type the more I fall in line with just signing a few more arms and leaving our bats as is.

 

My interest remains in Profar, Lucroy and all pitchers though.

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Is Rasmus making a comeback?

[SCCWS]

JDM update: The Red Sox’ current top offer to Martinez is “in the vicinity” of only $100MM, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/j-d-...rs-tuesday.html

 

FWIW---Speier is usually pretty dialed in to the Red Sox.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

If that's true, White Sox should offer JDM 5/$110M and call it a day.

[southsider2k5]

If that's true, White Sox should offer JDM 5/$110M and call it a day.

 

With as many teams as are sitting out this free agency period, and as are planning on going all in next time around, you might be on to something. Watching how teams are behaving now, I am not sure that trying to outbid the uncapped Yankees and Dodgers of the world is the soundest strategy.

[iamshack]

With as many teams as are sitting out this free agency period, and as are planning on going all in next time around, you might be on to something. Watching how teams are behaving now, I am not sure that trying to outbid the uncapped Yankees and Dodgers of the world is the soundest strategy.

If not for the requirement of the opt-out after 2 years, I would have been pleased to give Darvish 6/$130.

 

I feel the same way about Martinez.

 

I think you can exploit this market and do better than trying to outbid a much stronger marketplace for basically 2-3 players next year.

[southsider2k5]

If not for the requirement of the opt-out after 2 years, I would have been pleased to give Darvish 6/$130.

 

I feel the same way about Martinez.

 

I think you can exploit this market and do better than trying to outbid a much stronger marketplace for basically 2-3 players next year.

 

Going into this winter I was pretty opposed to this team buying in general. After seeing the market that developed this winter, I have rethought that stance. This winter is starting to look like buying the pullback, while next winter will be buying at the highs.

[iamshack]

Going into this winter I was pretty opposed to this team buying in general. After seeing the market that developed this winter, I have rethought that stance. This winter is starting to look like buying the pullback, while next winter will be buying at the highs.

Absolutely, enough so that it likely would overcome the misalignment in regards to timing.

 

I wonder if our FO really talked any potential frameworks with some of these top-tier FAs.

[GreenSox]

If you attached either Rasmus or Revere's line to Delcomnico or Cordell/Tilson I think we would be quite happy. Both have their holes though no doubt.

I wouldn't be happy. Those lines are a dime a dozen.

I want at least one of our OF to really break out. I'll take that with the rest flaming out, over a bunch of Rasmus'.

[Lillian]

You guys know me, so you won't be surprised by my question: Is there a left handed, middle of the order bat, somewhere in this discussion for a big free agent acquisition? Why not wait for Harper? He would fulfill that wish. Unless Avi and, or Abreu are traded, our middle of the order in 2019 will likely be composed of 3 right hitters; Avi, Eloy and Jose. A left handed bat, stuck somewhere in the middle, would be very helpful. Remember, I'm hoping for Moncada to emerge as a dynamic, Ricky Henderson type, lead off hitter.

Edited February 14, 2018 by Lillian