Keith Law's ESPN Top 100

[Harry Chappas]

What? Soler was on the Royals last season.

EDIT: Are you referring to him being traded for Wade Davis?

 

Yes he still had plenty of value as a young oft injured player.

[35thstreetswarm]

Honestly, I think the Sox now probably rank 5th in Baseball in future talent. I'd take the Braves, Yankees, Padres and Phillies ahead of the Sox. With the Yankees and Phillies, they have young talent that has already proven itself to have at the very least one good season in the Majors, and I also think the Braves and Padres have a deeper farm system. The Sox prospects, overall, probably have the most high-end potential but it is fairly concentrated. What happens if two of Moncada, Kopech, Jimenez and Robert don't turn out to be the players we thought they'd be? Then what? I think the other teams have a bigger buffer to their players, while the Sox probably have a ceiling of a 78 win team if the "big boys" don't turn into superstars. Everyone points to the Cubs and Astros, but they have had at least 1-2 high profile busts-Appel and Singleton with the Astros, and Soler and Schwarber haven't been the studs that Cub fans thought they'd be. The Sox can't survive that kind of setback. Their potential stars actually have to be stars otherwise they're f***ed.

 

There are a LOT of assumptions built into that projection, which also requires that you ignore the rest of the Sox prospects, and imagine no free agent signings. What if the big four don't become "superstars" but do become productive players, and say Hansen and Giolito turn out to be dominant TOR starters, Rodon rounds back into form, and one of Collins, Rutherford, Burger becomes a surprise star, and we sign Machado and another TOR starter? Is that a 78-win team? What if we draft an All-star caliber player #4 in a few months? What if you insert Cease, or Dunning, or Lopez, for one of the breakout pitchers I just mentioned? I think you're vastly understating the number of paths to success the Sox have with their current makeup.

[Jack Parkman]

There are a LOT of assumptions built into that projection, which also requires that you ignore the rest of the Sox prospects, and imagine no free agent signings. What if the big four don't become "superstars" but do become productive players, and say Hansen and Giolito turn out to be dominant TOR starters, Rodon rounds back into form, and one of Collins, Rutherford, Burger becomes a surprise star, and we sign Machado and another TOR starter? Is that a 78-win team? What if we draft an All-star caliber player #4 in a few months? What if you insert Cease, or Dunning, or Lopez, for one of the breakout pitchers I just mentioned? I think you're vastly understating the number of paths to success the Sox have with their current makeup.

Then you have the Sox from 2008-2012. Not good enough to make the playoffs, just good enough to come in 2nd or 3rd.

[Dick Allen]

Then you have the Sox from 2008-2012. Not good enough to make the playoffs, just good enough to come in 2nd or 3rd.

Except the Sox did make the playoffs in 2008, which was actually the year Detroit got Cabrera and KW said that just made them more competitive with the White Sox.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Dick Allen

[35thstreetswarm]

Then you have the Sox from 2008-2012. Not good enough to make the playoffs, just good enough to come in 2nd or 3rd.

 

I'm not sure what to say to that, but if your baseline for success is going 4/4 on our top prospects becoming "superstars," you should probably prepare to be disappointed. There aren't too many teams with 4 "superstars" on their roster, let alone home-grown.

[Jack Parkman]

I'm not sure what to say to that, but if your baseline for success is going 4/4 on our top prospects becoming "superstars," you should probably prepare to be disappointed. There aren't too many teams with 4 "superstars" on their roster, let alone home-grown.

Well, no I don't expect all four of them to be superstars, I have more hope for Moncada and Jimenez than I do for Kopech and Robert. I think that if Moncada and Jimenez are as advertised, and Kopech becomes a stud closer, while Robert has middling success, that is more than anyone could have hoped for. I know it isn't going to happen. I'm just saying, that they have less room for error than the other teams did/do. With Moncada, you just can't teach that eye. He's striking out looking on close pitches more than swinging at crap. If he starts fouling those off, the sky is the limit for him. I'm super high on him. Kopech, I'm not as high on because I don't think he can hold up as a starter going max effort constantly. I think his makeup is better for being a stud closer rather than a starter, based on what I've heard about him. He just seems like a guy who could throw 105 like Chapman for 1 inning.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[ptatc]

Except the Sox did make the playoffs in 2008, which was actually the year Detroit got Cabrera and KW said that just made them more competitive with the White Sox.

They were also only one game out in 2010 if you use the current Wild card format.

[Eminor3rd]

No? There is a difference between the two. I am also pretty sure Law is not yet convinced Hansen would pan out as a TOR.

 

What is that difference? Just because the guy is a TOR doesn't mean he's a top tier ace.

[Eminor3rd]

Law has the Sox as the #4 farm system. Seems low. He has Braves, Yankees and Padres as #1-3 in that order.

 

I think that's pretty much consensus. Remember that we graduated Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez. Also, our 15 - 30 guys pretty much all had their stocks drop.