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Translating the FV grades to prime values.


Dominikk85

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I used the mlb.com grades (although they tend to be a little to generous with 50 and 55 grades in my opinion) to translate the grades into future value in their prime.

 

Using this article

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-ex...scouting-scale/

 

1. Eloy

Mlb grades 55 hit, 60 power, 60 fv

Fg grades 50 hit, 55 power, 60 f2f

 

270 average, 35 hr, 3 WAR

 

2. Kopech

Mlb 60 fv

Fg 55 fv

 

3 WAR

 

3.Luis Robert

Mlb 50 hit, 55 power, 55 fv

 

260 average, 20 hr, 2.5 war (but that could go up)

 

4.Rutherford

Mlb 55, 55, 55

Fg 60, 55, 55

 

280, 20 hr , 2.5 war (but might drop next year)

 

5. Cease

Mlb 55

Fg 45

 

They are really split here, Fg has him as a future 1.5 war guy and mlb 2.5 war guy

 

6. Hansen

Mlb 55

Fg 45

 

I go with the higher grade, Fg grade might not be adjusted yet to strong 2017

 

2.5 war guy

 

7. Collins

Mlb 45 hit, 55 power, 50 fv

Fg 40 hit, 60 power, 50 fv

 

240 with 25 hr and 2 WAR

 

8.dunning

Mlb 50

Fg 45

 

2 war

 

9.fulmer

 

Mlb, Fg 50

 

2 war player

 

10. Burger

 

Mlb 50 hit, 55 power, 50 fv

 

260, 25 hr, 2 war (I think 2 war is correct, but I expect more power and worse defense,more like 30 hr)

 

 

 

 

Mlb also has 11-16 as future 2 war players ( Gillespie, burdi, Adams, Adolfo, sheets, Cordell) before it drops of to bench players. Personally I think that is a little too optimistic and Fg also sees it that way.

 

But I also think that eloy should be bumped up to a 65 after last year (I,e future 4 win player).

 

 

Keep in mind that the WAR are average during their prime (say 25-29 years old). A future 2.5 win player might also have one 4 win season in his prime (but also maybe a 1.5 win season).

 

For comparison: 2 sox players last year had 4 war (avi, abreu), then they had 4 more guys in the 50fv (2 war) range (Sanchez, Quintana, Frazier, swarzak - although Quintana of course was a 4 win player for the whole year and Frazier was at 3 WAR, so they essentially where a 60 and a 65 ) and then they had 3 more in the 1.5 war range (45s) and the rest was one and under (40 fv).

 

So you can see how much deeper they will get, last year it was essentially

 

65,65, 60, 50, 50, 45, 45, and then 40s

 

In the future it will be 65, 60, 55, 55, 55, and then 50s in every spot and nothing worse than 45s on the bench.

 

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QUOTE (GermanSock @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 03:53 PM)
I used the mlb.com grades (although they tend to be a little to generous with 50 and 55 grades in my opinion) to translate the grades into future value in their prime.

 

Using this article

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-ex...scouting-scale/

 

1. Eloy

Mlb grades 55 hit, 60 power, 60 fv

Fg grades 50 hit, 55 power, 60 f2f

 

270 average, 35 hr, 3 WAR

 

2. Kopech

Mlb 60 fv

Fg 55 fv

 

3 WAR

 

3.Luis Robert

Mlb 50 hit, 55 power, 55 fv

 

260 average, 20 hr, 2.5 war (but that could go up)

 

4.Rutherford

Mlb 55, 55, 55

Fg 60, 55, 55

 

280, 20 hr , 2.5 war (but might drop next year)

 

5. Cease

Mlb 55

Fg 45

 

They are really split here, Fg has him as a future 1.5 war guy and mlb 2.5 war guy

 

6. Hansen

Mlb 55

Fg 45

 

I go with the higher grade, Fg grade might not be adjusted yet to strong 2017

 

2.5 war guy

 

7. Collins

Mlb 45 hit, 55 power, 50 fv

Fg 40 hit, 60 power, 50 fv

 

240 with 25 hr and 2 WAR

 

8.dunning

Mlb 50

Fg 45

 

2 war

 

9.fulmer

 

Mlb, Fg 50

 

2 war player

 

10. Burger

 

Mlb 50 hit, 55 power, 50 fv

 

260, 25 hr, 2 war (I think 2 war is correct, but I expect more power and worse defense,more like 30 hr)

 

 

 

 

Mlb also has 11-16 as future 2 war players ( Gillespie, burdi, Adams, Adolfo, sheets, Cordell) before it drops of to bench players. Personally I think that is a little too optimistic and Fg also sees it that way.

 

But I also think that eloy should be bumped up to a 65 after last year (I,e future 4 win player).

 

 

Keep in mind that the WAR are average during their prime (say 25-29 years old). A future 2.5 win player might also have one 4 win season in his prime (but also maybe a 1.5 win season).

 

For comparison: 2 sox players last year had 4 war (avi, abreu), then they had 4 more guys in the 50fv (2 war) range (Sanchez, Quintana, Frazier, swarzak - although Quintana of course was a 4 win player for the whole year and Frazier was at 3 WAR, so they essentially where a 60 and a 65 ) and then they had 3 more in the 1.5 war range (45s) and the rest was one and under (40 fv).

 

So you can see how much deeper they will get, last year it was essentially

 

65,65, 60, 50, 50, 45, 45, and then 40s

 

In the future it will be 65, 60, 55, 55, 55, and then 50s in every spot and nothing worse than 45s on the bench.

 

I always feel like Fangraphs is more pessimistic on players than other systems. How are Cease and Hansen FV 45 prospects?

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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 04:02 PM)
I always feel like Fangraphs is more pessimistic on players than other systems. How are Cease and Hansen FV 45 prospects?

 

Eh, everyone is on the same scale though. IMO mlb pipeline has major grade inflation.

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