Yu Darvish to Cubs

[Bob Sacamano]

I mean sure but after ST doesn't FA lose any draft pick compensation attached to them? At this point with how much Boras has dragged things out why wouldn't you wait another couple of weeks?

 

Prices are going to only continue to go down plus the draft pick penalty will soon be gone

 

Nope. After draft.

 

[wrathofhahn]

Nope. After draft.

 

Ah for some reason i thought it was ST did a google search but couldn't find info thanks for clarifying that

[Bob Sacamano]

Ah for some reason i thought it was ST did a google search but couldn't find info thanks for clarifying that

 

No problem. There was that one season Drew and Morales both sat out until after the draft.

 

Edit: actually, Drew re-signed with his former team prior to the draft so it didn't really matter

Edited February 12, 2018 by soxfan2014

[dpd9189]

Arrieta does - the Cubs will get a pick back if he signs elsewhere.

 

And that's a silly concept anyway. If the Cubs are that worried about a 2nd or 3rd round pick that they're going after a pitcher that they like less, then their priorities are totally screwed up. They went after Darvish because they wanted starting pitching help and they picked the pitcher they preferred. Whatever their reason was, they seriously preferred darvish to Arrieta.

 

They might have preferred Darvish to Arrieta but haven't the Cubs been trying to extend Arrieta for a few years now but he wants an Elite contract like Price/Grienke? They were in a spot where they needed a top end SP and if Arrieta/Boras were/are still sticking to their guns of their desired terms, then Theo probably did what he had to do in signing Darvish. I really want to see what Arrieta signs for. I can't see Boras let it being a penny less than the Darvish deal and I have no idea who would give Arrieta that type of deal right now. If the Cubs wouldn't then who will? It will be interesting to see if Arrieta overplayed his hand.

[caulfield12]

They might have preferred Darvish to Arrieta but haven't the Cubs been trying to extend Arrieta for a few years now but he wants an Elite contract like Price/Grienke? They were in a spot where they needed a top end SP and if Arrieta/Boras were/are still sticking to their guns of their desired terms, then Theo probably did what he had to do in signing Darvish. I really want to see what Arrieta signs for. I can't see Boras let it being a penny less than the Darvish deal and I have no idea who would give Arrieta that type of deal right now. If the Cubs wouldn't then who will? It will be interesting to see if Arrieta overplayed his hand.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?pla...=P&pitch=FA

 

There’s your answer. Plus, using a lot more pitches, walks up, missed bats down...ip/appearance way down. Also, Cubs can’t afford to get into their bullpen in the fifth or sixth like they used to when they had a better pen.

[SoxSteve]

https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?pla...=P&pitch=FA

 

There’s your answer. Plus, using a lot more pitches, walks up, missed bats down...ip/appearance way down. Also, Cubs can’t afford to get into their bullpen in the fifth or sixth like they used to when they had a better pen.

I love if the Brewers signed him to that deal it would be a great deal but the Cubs do it it sucks. I hate the Cubs as much as anyone but you have to give them a A for the offseason. Signed some very good relievers( no real closer) but damm good pitchers and a very good starter. And with Q for a full season they have a excellent staff and team that matches up with anyone in the national league. Washington and dodgers are good but neither has had much of a offseason. Eaton coming back helps Wash alot. And i wouldn't worry about the cubs and spending money. Rumor is they are going to sign a monster TV contract in the billions in a couple years so I'm sure money isn't the issue right now and in the future. I hope Lester arm fails him this year dervish has his usual banged up year but if there both on with Q and Hendricks that could be lethal. I hate em but you give Theo credit for the offseason IMO

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Cubs aren't even talking to Arrieta.

 

Reports by Heyman say the Cubs offered the same 6 yrs/$126M to Arrieta but he either didn't want it or didn't accept it right away, so it went to Darvish instead. So it sounds like they valued them the same or maybe were willing to give Jake a little more because they already know he fits the clubhouse and fans like him.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

At this point I'm just very interested to see what Darvish is getting in 2018 and 2019. Because he can opt out after 2019. So assuming the deal is frontloaded, it could end up being something like 2 yrs/$60M. And then they get 2 years of Darvish's best 2 years left, but lose the long commitment so they can resign their core. And if he ends up being bad or mediocre, then he stays and is only getting paid about $16.5M AAV, which they can trade off to 17 teams not on his NTC.

Edited February 12, 2018 by ChiliIrishHammock24

[Bob Sacamano]

Reports by Heyman say the Cubs offered the same 6 yrs/$126M to Arrieta but he either didn't want it or didn't accept it right away, so it went to Darvish instead. So it sounds like they valued them the same or maybe were willing to give Jake a little more because they already know he fits the clubhouse and fans like him.

 

It hasn't been confirmed they offered 6 years but I assume the annual salary is the same with maybe a year or two less.

Edited February 12, 2018 by soxfan2014

[Bob Sacamano]

I love if the Brewers signed him to that deal it would be a great deal but the Cubs do it it sucks. I hate the Cubs as much as anyone but you have to give them a A for the offseason. Signed some very good relievers( no real closer) but damm good pitchers and a very good starter. And with Q for a full season they have a excellent staff and team that matches up with anyone in the national league. Washington and dodgers are good but neither has had much of a offseason. Eaton coming back helps Wash alot. And i wouldn't worry about the cubs and spending money. Rumor is they are going to sign a monster TV contract in the billions in a couple years so I'm sure money isn't the issue right now and in the future. I hope Lester arm fails him this year dervish has his usual banged up year but if there both on with Q and Hendricks that could be lethal. I hate em but you give Theo credit for the offseason IMO

 

Even the Chatwood signing can turn out to be really good. Dude was good on the road last year and great on the road the season before.

[Eminor3rd]

Exactly. Just because the Cubs are giving up elite prospects (Eloy Jimenez) and shelling out $100 million contracts for starting pitchers doesn't mean that they are worth it. Speaking of elite prospects, I'll argue (I was right about Giolito before he debuted check my post history) that Cease is exactly the type of pitcher the Cubs need right now and not a small minded over the hill pitcher who can't perform when the lights are shining their brightest. Cubs are not going anywhere and it'll be fun to watch. Their squad will be falling apart when the south side starts rising again. No club in baseball has more under 25 talent than the Chicago White Sox.

 

So our one WS proves exactly what must be done to win, but their one WS was so clearly a fluke that they should be disregarded?

 

Come on man. I'm on your team but this kind of homerism just makes us look bad.

[35thstreetswarm]

I view this as a predictable and maybe necessary move (given that they're in the middle of their "window"), but not a particularly exciting one. I had always figured the Cubs would sign Darvish to keep from taking a major step backward. But I think this is at best a lateral move for the Cubs when you compare what Arrieta has given them over the past few years vs. what a mid-30's Yu Darvish is likely to give them going forward. To get there they had to shell out what will soon become an albatross contract - these splashy offseason free agent signings don't have a great track record. Not sure they've moved the ball forward, and they are still minus Wade Davis.

Edited February 12, 2018 by 35thstreetswarm

[LittleHurt05]

Good deal for the Cubs, if he stays healthy the first 2-3 years of course. Their window is now so who cares about the end of the deal. Usually a bit nervous about pitchers from Japan but he already had the Tommy John so that's probably a good thing for the Cubs.

 

And this thread makes me think a whole lot of posters are gonna be disappointed with the next 5 + years of White Sox baseball. What the Cubs have done and are doing now is a best case scenario for the Sox future. It might just be the Cubs bias in people, but if you are so down about them, I don't know what you expect from the Sox.

[southsider2k5]

Good deal for the Cubs, if he stays healthy the first 2-3 years of course. Their window is now so who cares about the end of the deal. Usually a bit nervous about pitchers from Japan but he already had the Tommy John so that's probably a good thing for the Cubs.

 

And this thread makes me think a whole lot of posters are gonna be disappointed with the next 5 + years of White Sox baseball. What the Cubs have done and are doing now is a best case scenario for the Sox future. It might just be the Cubs bias in people, but if you are so down about them, I don't know what you expect from the Sox.

 

The big thing the Cubs want to avoid is Yu needing arm surgery in year two.

[southsider2k5]

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman 16m16 minutes ago icymi, sources say cubs were willing to do the same six-year deal for arrieta that darvish took.

 

 

[oldsox]

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman 16m16 minutes ago icymi, sources say cubs were willing to do the same six-year deal for arrieta that darvish took.

Then Arrieta is a fool.

[oldsox]

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman 16m16 minutes ago icymi, sources say cubs were willing to do the same six-year deal for arrieta that darvish took.

Chatwood is a great pinch runner, mediocre pitcher.

[Bob Sacamano]

Chatwood is a great pinch runner, mediocre pitcher.

 

His numbers away from Coors would say otherwise.

[wrathofhahn]

Then Arrieta is a fool.

 

This sounds like postering by Boras Heyman is a well known Boras mouthpiece.

 

Boras doesn't want Arrieta to end up with less then Darvish.

[Bananarchy]

This sounds like postering by Boras Heyman is a well known Boras mouthpiece.

 

Boras doesn't want Arrieta to end up with less then Darvish.

Well, I have some bad news for him. P&C report this week.

[Eminor3rd]

Then Arrieta is a fool.

 

Yep, that's insane.

[35thstreetswarm]

Good deal for the Cubs, if he stays healthy the first 2-3 years of course. Their window is now so who cares about the end of the deal. Usually a bit nervous about pitchers from Japan but he already had the Tommy John so that's probably a good thing for the Cubs.

 

And this thread makes me think a whole lot of posters are gonna be disappointed with the next 5 + years of White Sox baseball. What the Cubs have done and are doing now is a best case scenario for the Sox future. It might just be the Cubs bias in people, but if you are so down about them, I don't know what you expect from the Sox.

 

A lot of truth in that - look, the Cubs won one WS, and I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be overjoyed if the Sox did the same with the group of prospects coming up.

 

But I don't know that the Cubs have done quite enough to spare them the level of criticism I reserve for other teams -- like, say the Royals, or, say, the White Sox -- that have accomplished pretty much the same thing. If Eloy Jimenez wins World Series MVP, I fully expect to party deliriously through November and be back to whining about White Sox moves the following July. If the Cubs go on to build the multi-title dynasty some predicted back in 2015, then maybe I'll give them the "Patriots treatment" or "Blackhawks treatment" (i.e., the benefit of every reasonable doubt when it comes to personnel moves). But I don't think they're there yet.

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

A lot of truth in that - look, the Cubs won one WS, and I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be overjoyed if the Sox did the same with the group of prospects coming up.

 

But I don't know that the Cubs have done quite enough to spare them the level of criticism I reserve for other teams -- like, say the Royals, or, say, the White Sox -- that have accomplished pretty much the same thing. If Eloy Jimenez wins World Series MVP, I fully expect to party deliriously through November and be back to whining about White Sox moves the following July. If the Cubs go on to build the multi-title dynasty some predicted back in 2015, then maybe I'll give them the "Patriots treatment" or "Blackhawks treatment" (i.e., the benefit of every reasonable doubt when it comes to personnel moves). But I don't think they're there yet.

Ask yourself this. Say the Cubs won their first title and then said "we're going to keep developing these guys". Would they seriously be better off than they were last year? Un-do that deal, give them back Jiminez at AA. Now their pitching staff going into 2018 is Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Chatwood, Montgomery. Does that rotation scare you? Even with all the talent in their big leagues squad, aren't you seriously thinking that both the Brewers and the Cardinals can compete with them? Yes, in 2019 Jiminez would be a monster for them, alongside a 35 year old Lester and with Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, Russell, all in their 2nd years of arbitration.

 

That could still be a decent team, but as the arb costs go up for these guys the money available to add pitching is going down. The lesson here is that even when you do things right, the costs to stay on top for more than a season or two are huge. The Royals won their title and then haven't been back to the playoffs. The Cubs won their title and then just to make the playoffs last year, after a sub.500 first half, they had to cash in their last chips. The Astros started last year with a $132 million payroll, they're up to $149 to start the year this year, and former Cy Young and their 2nd best pitcher Dallas Keuchel hits free agency next year.

 

The moral of the story here is - when you've got a team that can win a title, win a title. The way baseball is playing right now, staying on top for 3-4 years requires extremely high costs in both talent and money. Be ready to pay the price to get on top and then worry about the other years later. They won't be cheap, but you've got two choices; pay that price or rebuild again. And I don't think anyone would, in the Cubs' position, try to rebuild right now, even though guys are getting expensive.

[35thstreetswarm]

Ask yourself this. Say the Cubs won their first title and then said "we're going to keep developing these guys". Would they seriously be better off than they were last year? Un-do that deal, give them back Jiminez at AA. Now their pitching staff going into 2018 is Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Chatwood, Montgomery. Does that rotation scare you? Even with all the talent in their big leagues squad, aren't you seriously thinking that both the Brewers and the Cardinals can compete with them? Yes, in 2019 Jiminez would be a monster for them, alongside a 35 year old Lester and with Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, Russell, all in their 2nd years of arbitration.

 

That could still be a decent team, but as the arb costs go up for these guys the money available to add pitching is going down. The lesson here is that even when you do things right, the costs to stay on top for more than a season or two are huge. The Royals won their title and then haven't been back to the playoffs. The Cubs won their title and then just to make the playoffs last year, after a sub.500 first half, they had to cash in their last chips. The Astros started last year with a $132 million payroll, they're up to $149 to start the year this year, and former Cy Young and their 2nd best pitcher Dallas Keuchel hits free agency next year.

 

The moral of the story here is - when you've got a team that can win a title, win a title. The way baseball is playing right now, staying on top for 3-4 years requires extremely high costs in both talent and money. Be ready to pay the price to get on top and then worry about the other years later. They won't be cheap, but you've got two choices; pay that price or rebuild again. And I don't think anyone would, in the Cubs' position, try to rebuild right now, even though guys are getting expensive.

 

I agree with all of that. As I said, I think signing Darvish was probably necessary to keep their window open - I just don't think it really makes them any better than they were last year when they came up short. I view this as a tread-water move rather than the breakthrough some seem to think it is.

 

(The rest of my rant was really directed more generally at the tendency to afford this Cubs team a degree of deference I'm not sure they have earned just yet.)

 

Hopefully we have such problems to deal with in a few years!

[caulfield12]

It’s not even Jiminez, right now.

 

It’s being stuck with Zobrist/Heyward, a lack of elite arms after Edwards in the pen and the defensive hodgepodge that is Happ/Schwarber.

 

Their most desirable trade piece, Baez, is the one with the most positional versatility and best defender, so they can simply not afford to lose him. They really were fortunate to get Wade Davis for Soler last year, but a lot of other breaks have gone their way (Rizzo, Bryant draft, Kendricks, developing one of the best catchers in baseball internally, Lester connection to Epstein).

 

They also don’t have a true CFer or leadoff hitter.

 

And they lost Gleyber Torres for a closer who almost ended up costing them the title, bringing a domestic abuser into their midst before it really cost them with female Cubs’ fans like it MIGHT in a post #metoo world.

 

All those things said, it’s hard to imagine doing any better than 3 consecutive NL Champ series appearances and still having at least 4 or even 5 good shots to get back there again. And while the Brewers and Cards improved, the Pirates and Reds are two more small market teams who are being forced by circumstances to rebuild.

 

Last but not least, undo history and put the Astros back in the NL Central and you might not have a Cubs’ World Series title.

 

But we can do that same exercise with the 2004-2005 Chicago White Sox just as easily, if not moreso.