Moustakas linked to Sox again

[Bob Sacamano]

You keep saying that, but I don't know why. He put up 2.2 fWAR last year and both Steamer and ZiPS project him at 2.5. A league average player is "roughly 2 WAR." Ok, maybe he's slightly above? He's within rounding error of a league average player.

 

Where did you get this number?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

No, I don't consider #6 to be "middle of the order." But an argument where a team can be so good offensively that they still made the playoffs despite a mediocre performance by a guy in the #6 hole is not an argument that we should sign a mediocre guy for the #6 hole.

What’s your definition of middle of the order then? #3-#5? Either way whether he is #5 or #6 it’s semantics and I don’t know why everyone keeps labeling him mediocre? Apparently the Royals won a title with a bunch of mediocre players then. Not many here too high on Hosmer or Moose and both guys were regulars in the “middle of the order” during their 2015 championship season just over two years ago.

[southsider2k5]

You keep saying that, but I don't know why. He put up 2.2 fWAR last year and both Steamer and ZiPS project him at 2.5. A league average player is "roughly 2 WAR." Ok, maybe he's slightly above? He's within rounding error of a league average player.

 

He does rank 16th in last years rankings of 3B by fWAR.

[Eminor3rd]

Where did you get this number?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

 

Scroll down/Ctrl+F to "Context"

[Dam8610]

A lot of other stuff would go into a Machado signing. The PR alone is probably worth something. But they have to be realistic. It isn't like they will be up against the Padres and Braves to sign him. It's going to be the big guys. And it may even be a team that loses out on Harper thinking well we did allocate these funds, why don't we just add him, and make him fit on their team. I know the White Sox are not operating like they used to. But I still fail to see how anyone can be optimistic about their chances of signing him. And then you move on to Donaldson, who is a heck of a player, but will be older, more expensive, and does have some personality issues. If Moustakas' price drops to where it makes sense to have him on the roster for a worthless season, you can re-allocate all that money on other, sure to be there, holes.

 

If you strike out on Machado you move on to Arenado, not Donaldson.

[Bob Sacamano]

If you strike out on Machado you move on to Arenado, not Donaldson.

 

You wait a year?

[Eminor3rd]

What’s your definition of middle of the order then? #3-#5? Either way whether he is #5 or #6 it’s semantics and I don’t know why everyone keeps labeling him mediocre? Apparently the Royals won a title with a bunch of mediocre players then. Not many here too high on Hosmer or Moose and both guys were regulars in the “middle of the order” during their 2015 championship season just over two years ago.

 

Again -- it isn't 2015 anymore. Those players are older, and they'll be older still when we are competitive.

 

Last year, in a bounceback season, he was a 114 wRC+ hitter, good for 107th in the major if you filter by minimum 50 plate appearances, or apparently 60-something if you filter by whatever minimum Dick Allen filtered by, which I guess is probably "Qualified for Batting Title." Would you scramble to add the roughly 100th best hitter to the middle of your order?

 

Ok, now, take that answer and remember that next year doesn't matter in terms of overall record. Two years from now will matter possibly, if things go REALLY well next year. The year after that must matter. So we're taking that 100th best hitter form this year, pushing him 2-3 years into his 30's, and NOW placing him in the middle of oour order. Where will he rank then if ages normally?

 

Today, he is a roughly average player overall. Those guys are ALWAYS available to sign. Every offseason you can sign average players at market rates.Why not, instead, sign a 2-win 115 wRC+ guy when we actually need him, instead of now and hoping he defies the aging curve AND that we also correctly guessed that he'll play the position we'll need in two or three years? And that his aged hasn't had him move off of that position?

[Dick Allen]

You keep saying that, but I don't know why. He put up 2.2 fWAR last year and both Steamer and ZiPS project him at 2.5. A league average player is "roughly 2 WAR." Ok, maybe he's slightly above? He's within rounding error of a league average player.

That's where I am getting it. Steamer actually has him at 2.6 not that it matters much, but he played in 27 games in 2016 and put up a 0.7. So if he played a full season, he was well on his way to well above average then. Was well above average in 2015, and after missing a lot time he came back last year and was above average. In fact, only 9 MLB 3B had a higher wRC+ than he did. I believe defensively he can bounce back. He wasn't horrible, but wasn't great. Many think another year away from his surgery will improve his defense, which will only make his WAR rise.

[chitownsportsfan]

We need to start playing some games. The amount of "ink" wasted on these "Sox linked to _____ " threads is starting to wear on us all.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[Dick Allen]

Again -- it isn't 2015 anymore. Those players are older, and they'll be older still when we are competitive.

 

Last year, in a bounceback season, he was a 114 wRC+ hitter, good for 107th in the major if you filter by minimum 50 plate appearances, or apparently 60-something if you filter by whatever minimum Dick Allen filtered by, which I guess is probably "Qualified for Batting Title." Would you scramble to add the roughly 100th best hitter to the middle of your order?

 

Ok, now, take that answer and remember that next year doesn't matter in terms of overall record. Two years from now will matter possibly, if things go REALLY well next year. The year after that must matter. So we're taking that 100th best hitter form this year, pushing him 2-3 years into his 30's, and NOW placing him in the middle of oour order. Where will he rank then if ages normally?

 

Today, he is a roughly average player overall. Those guys are ALWAYS available to sign. Every offseason you can sign average players at market rates.Why not, instead, sign a 2-win 115 wRC+ guy when we actually need him, instead of now and hoping he defies the aging curve AND that we also correctly guessed that he'll play the position we'll need in two or three years? And that his aged hasn't had him move off of that position?

Heres' where I got it. 107 is Yolmer Sanchez.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=17,d

Edited February 21, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Dam8610]

You wait a year?

 

Yes. Competing in 2019 is a year early unless they sign Machado. To make the rebuild work, the team is going to need to have patience and strike on the right opportunities. Signing Donaldson is a panic move for a win now team that lost out on Machado. Signing Arenado is reallocating the money you had for Machado who you lost out on to another "face of the franchise" type player who also happens to play 3B. If the team is patient and operates similarly to how the Astros have, they'll have quite possibly the best team in baseball in the early 2020s. If they squander opportunities and panic away their budget, we'll be looking at trying to recreate the 2016/2017 off-season again by the end of 2022.

[Dam8610]

Heres' where I got it. 107 is Yolmer Sanchez.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=17,d

 

He's right, Moustakas is the 62nd best hitter by wRC+.

[Dick Allen]

Do you know that if 2.0 is average, there are less than 7 players on average that are at least average on each team. How's that for averages? And if you round down like eminor, there are less than 5 above average players on average for each roster.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

Do you know that if 2.0 is average, there are less than 7 players on average that are at least average on each team. How's that for averages?

 

I guess that depends how you handle bullpens but that doesn't sound that off.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Again -- it isn't 2015 anymore. Those players are older, and they'll be older still when we are competitive.

 

Last year, in a bounceback season, he was a 114 wRC+ hitter, good for 107th in the major if you filter by minimum 50 plate appearances, or apparently 60-something if you filter by whatever minimum Dick Allen filtered by, which I guess is probably "Qualified for Batting Title." Would you scramble to add the roughly 100th best hitter to the middle of your order?

 

Ok, now, take that answer and remember that next year doesn't matter in terms of overall record. Two years from now will matter possibly, if things go REALLY well next year. The year after that must matter. So we're taking that 100th best hitter form this year, pushing him 2-3 years into his 30's, and NOW placing him in the middle of oour order. Where will he rank then if ages normally?

 

Today, he is a roughly average player overall. Those guys are ALWAYS available to sign. Every offseason you can sign average players at market rates.Why not, instead, sign a 2-win 115 wRC+ guy when we actually need him, instead of now and hoping he defies the aging curve AND that we also correctly guessed that he'll play the position we'll need in two or three years? And that his aged hasn't had him move off of that position?

They aren’t “scrambling to sign” him. The whole premise of this debate is that he is available at a discounted rate. And by discounted, I mean 5 years/$60MM. In that case, yes, I would consider signing him now at age 29 even if he doesn’t perfectly align with the Sox forecasted competitive window.

[wrathofhahn]

Do you know that if 2.0 is average, there are less than 7 players on average that are at least average on each team. How's that for averages? And if you round down like eminor, there are less than 5 above average players on average for each roster.

 

2 isn't average it's an average starter and I assume they are talking about the median not the mode.

[Eminor3rd]

Heres' where I got it. 107 is Yolmer Sanchez.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=17,d

 

Ok, yeah, you filtered by BA Title Qualification. That's fine, but it misses a crapton of rookies and players that spent decent time on the DL, both good and bad. I think it's more accurate to go with a lower threshold.

[Dick Allen]

Ok, yeah, you filtered by BA Title Qualification. That's fine, but it misses a crapton of rookies and players that spent decent time on the DL, both good and bad. I think it's more accurate to go with a lower threshold.

I don't think 50 PAs is a good sample size.

[OmarComing25]

I don't think 50 PAs is a good sample size.

If you increase the cutoff to 300 PA Moustakas is #91

[Dick Allen]

If you increase the cutoff to 300 PA Moustakas is #91

That is still top 3 on average per team.

 

The guy isn't average. It's a good narrative for people who don't want to sign him, but it simply isn't true. And anyone the White Sox eventually sign, will more than likely have some sort of issue during the term of their contract, just like some of the prospects we are drooling about now. A couple or a few will turn out to be throw ins for trades in coming years, never realizing what we see as their potential now.

 

I have no idea what Boras is asking. I would imagine it isn't discounted too much. So I don't think the White Sox will sign him. All I am saying is there should be a price where they say, it makes sense.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

That is still top 3 on average per team.

 

Ok, now apply aging curves for two to four seasons in the future.

[Dick Allen]

Ok, now apply aging curves for two to four seasons in the future.

Aging curves aren't always accurate. I bet you wouldn't have had Jose Abreu putting up the numbers he put up and a 4.1 WAR last year. He was a below average player. Now people want him to sign an extension.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

Aging curves aren't always accurate. I bet you wouldn't have had Jose Abreu putting up the numbers he put up and a 4.1 WAR last year. He was a below average player. Now people want him to sign an extension.

 

Correct, but they ARE accurate most of the time. They are the most likely thing to occur. Even if you acknowledge the possibility that he could buck the trend (I do), it can't be EXPECTED.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Aging curves aren't always accurate. I bet you wouldn't have had Jose Abreu putting up the numbers he put up and a 4.1 WAR last year. He was a below average player. Now people want him to sign an extension.

And yet many want to sign guys like Donaldson (who is 3 years older and not a FA until next offseason) or Harper/Machado to a 10 year contract?

[Eminor3rd]

And yet many want to sign guys like Donaldson (who is 3 years older and not a FA until next offseason) or Harper/Machado to a 10 year contract?

 

I'm not advocating for signing Donaldson, but all of the players you mentioned are WAY better than Moustakas, so they have much more room to get worse before they get to be a problem.