Moustakas linked to Sox again

[Chicago White Sox]

I think if there was a player we should have signed due to market conditions, it was Yuuuuuuu

I don’t think he would have signed with us though. I think he wanted to go to a contender.

[Lillian]

It isn't productive to make these arguments personal, so I'll simply quote the posts, which I have made regarding this issue of Machado, versus Moustakas, as a potential free agent acquisition. I hope that this will further clarify my position, and that we can move on to other points. I have bolded the central point, which is that money is a significant consideration, and that while I recognize that Machado is the better player, I'm skeptical that he would be worth the enormous cost:

 

2/21

Just to clarify: I certainly do not think that Moustakas is a better player than Machado. However, I'm not sure that Machado is a better value, at $35 Million, per year, than Moustakas, at $12 Million per year. Those numbers are merely speculation, but they illustrate my point.

 

Yesterday 8:09 pm

I agree with Caulfield. If this rebuild goes right, the Sox will have a lot of really good players, at most of the key positions. They need a respectable left handed bat, more than they need a top 5 player. No team has All Stars at every position. Not that Moustakas couldn't be an All Star again. You add his bat and Eloy's, in 2019 and this team could be very competitive, if the pitching is ready. Then you have that future outfield of Eloy, Robert, Adolfo and Rutherford or Basabe, all ready to take over, in 2020 or 2021, if you trade Avi. Again, I don't see the need to spend $350 Million, or more, on Machado.

Yesterday 9:22 pm

Donaldson will be too old. Machado and Arenado will be too expensive. Sure, if ownership wants to spend the money, I'm certainly not going to complain and of course, they are better players, than Moustakas. However, that doesn't seem realistic, to me. Moreover, it would be nice to extend some of the young stars, rather than have to let a bunch of them go, when they hit free agency. They might not have that financial flexibility, if they spend $35 Million per year on a third baseman. Why is that "mind-boggling"? I do agree that giving up the draft pick is a big negative.

 

Today 8:09 am

To be more precise; I would prefer the left handed bat at $12 Million, for 5 years, to the Super Star right handed hitter, at $35 Million, for 10 years. That preference stems from the fact that we already have several potential Super Stars, and all but one of them, hit right handed. If you take the money out of the equation, of course I would prefer Machado, to Moustakas.

 

Today 8:52 am

I don't understand why some of you continue to completely ignore the issue of money. If you read what I just posted, I clearly stated the difference in the cost, as being a critical component of my preference. I said; "If you take the money out of the equation, of course I would prefer Machado, to Moustakas". Ignoring money might be excused, when talking about a few dollars, but not when it involves hundreds of millions of dollars.

 

 

 

 

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

They didn't sign him, they just absorbed his contract in a trade.

You’re equating the Astros’ share of Verlander’s remaining contract to Machado’s upcoming contract? Seriously?

[Chicago White Sox]

I’m not trying to make things personal, but you said “They need a respectable left handed bat, more than they need a top 5 player.” That’s what sent me into a frenzy. If you think it’s not wise to commit $30M+ a year that’s a different argument altogether (although I still wouldn’t agree), but your initial statements never really suggested that. It really came off like you were arguing fit over production. I know others feel the same way based on posts in this thread.

[Kyyle23]

Who said I don’t believe in the rebuild? Not believing they will sign Machado equates to not believing in the rebuild? I absolutely believe that they will make a significant splash in free agency in the coming years, I just don’t believe they are contenders for signing Machado.

 

You want them to start signing free agents now, before they are approaching their window. We are one year into the rebuild and you want to start making commitments that could end up being a detriment later, with or without Machado. It’s like arguing with WBWSF about trading away Robertson. We don’t need these guys right now, you want to make those commitments next offseason when you (hopefully) have Eloy, Kopech, Giolito, Moncada, Lopez, Anderson performing well in the majors and the theoretical next wave of Burdi, Burger, Robert, Dunning, Cease knocking on the door. THEN you fill your holes

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I don’t think he would have signed with us though. I think he wanted to go to a contender.

Yes this is a great point and one of many reasons why I don’t think the Sox have a prayer of signing Machado. How much more would the Sox have to pay him than a team like NYY for him to pick the Sox? Aside from playing for an instant contender in NY, he’d be joining a historic franchise, playing in a division he’s already familiar with, and be playing in the biggest market in the game (e.g. increased marketing $$$). So if NYY is offering $325M, what do the Sox have to offer? $375M?

[caulfield12]

How so? What big dogs have the Astros signed over the last 5+ years of their rebuild?

 

Gurriel, Reddick, Gattis, Beltran...Carlos Gomez, Gregerson and Verlander.

 

Mostly high quality B tier guys. Gurriel and Verlander the two outliers. Lots of veterans to mix with the youth.

 

 

If you look at this list, or 2004-05 with the Sox, you’d think anyone under 30 wouldn’t fit on a contender, lol.

And yet I just saw someone write Moustakas was past his prime at age 29.

 

That list, and what the Sox did with almost all vets other than Jenks, or the Royals adding James Shields, the Cubs adding Ben Zobrist/Lester/Lackey/Ross...each situation argues logically for the youth/veteran mix approach.

Edited February 24, 2018 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

You want them to start signing free agents now, before they are approaching their window. We are one year into the rebuild and you want to start making commitments that could end up being a detriment later, with or without Machado. It’s like arguing with WBWSF about trading away Robertson. We don’t need these guys right now, you want to make those commitments next offseason when you (hopefully) have Eloy, Kopech, Giolito, Moncada, Lopez, Anderson performing well in the majors and the theoretical next wave of Burdi, Burger, Robert, Dunning, Cease knocking on the door. THEN you fill your holes

Why go all in next year then? Better off waiting until 2021 or 2022 to make all your free agent signings. I doubt all the guys you mention above will be peaking for another 3-4 years anyway. Might as well just wait to see what you’ve got if that’s the approach. Even next winter is too early.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Gurriel, Reddick, Gattis, Beltran...Carlos Gomez, Gregerson and Verlander.

 

Mostly high quality B tier guys. Gurriel and Verlander the two outliers. Lots of veterans to mix with the youth.

 

 

If you look at this list, or 2004-05 with the Sox, you’d think anyone under 30 wouldn’t fit on a contender, lol.

And yet I just saw someone write Moustakas was past his prime at age 29.

 

That list, and what the Sox did with almost all vets other than Jenks, or the Royals adding James Shields, the Cubs adding Ben Zobrist/Lester/Lackey/Ross...each situation argues logically for the youth/veteran mix approach.

This is exactly how I see the Sox rebuild unfolding. I see them taking the Houston approach filling needs with second tier free agents and then making big trades at the right moment. I guess there is more than one way to win a WS through a rebuild after all but you’d think the Sox rebuild is destined for failure if they miss out on Machado.

[Kyyle23]

Why go all in next year then? Better off waiting until 2021 or 2022 to make all your free agent signings. I doubt all the guys you mention above will be peaking for another 3-4 years anyway. Might as well just wait to see what you’ve got if that’s the approach. Even next winter is too early.

 

My approach hinges on the performance of the key players of the rebuild. If they all fail then of course we are f***ed anyways, but I don’t see that being the case.

[iamshack]

I don’t think he would have signed with us though. I think he wanted to go to a contender.

Yeah, fair point. Probably would have required more moohlah

[caulfield12]

Let’s go back to the central argument..

 

There MIGHT be a point where Moustakas makes sense, where there’s a market inefficiency to be exploited THIS year.

 

Some say 3 years/$38 million...others 5/$60. Another group, it depends on an opt out.

 

All things considered, that’s equally or more realistic than Machado (who might want to play SS anyway), Donaldson, Arenado and Rendon.

 

You could also argue that signing the equivalent of the Astros’ Gurriel from Cuba or Kang (minus the domestic violence issues!) from Japan/Korea is the best move because it doesn’t cost us in the 2nd round or future depth/talent surrendered, like a Verlander or Longoria to SF move. Not to mentioning absorbing huge veteran contract dollars. But that’s where scouts make their living. At different times in the last five years, Verlander and Longoria looked like toast.

Edited February 24, 2018 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

My approach hinges on the performance of the key players of the rebuild. If they all fail then of course we are f***ed anyways, but I don’t see that being the case.

But if that’s the approach wouldn’t you want to make sure that guys like Moncada, Eloy, Kopech, and Robert both develop and stay healthy in the coming years before saddling your franchise with a $350M long term contract? I don’t think you will have clearly identified all the future roster holes within the next 10 months but yet are going to commit that type of money to a single player? You might have another 6 or 7 holes to fill through free agency in the coming years to become a real contender but your hands are tied once you’ve gone “all-in” on a $35M AAV player like Machado or Harper. I’ll keep saying this but I believe the Astros are the model franchise for this Sox rebuild. They’re most expensive FA signing on a AAV basis was Carlos Beltran.

[caulfield12]

This is exactly how I see the Sox rebuild unfolding. I see them taking the Houston approach filling needs with second tier free agents and then making big trades at the right moment. I guess there is more than one way to win a WS through a rebuild after all but you’d think the Sox rebuild is destined for failure if they miss out on Machado.

 

I even forgot Brian McCann, yet another “name” vet.

[Kyyle23]

But if that’s the approach wouldn’t you want to make sure that guys like Moncada, Eloy, Kopech, and Robert both develop and stay healthy in the coming years before saddling your franchise with a $350M long term contract? I don’t think you will have clearly identified all the future roster holes within the next 10 months but yet are going to commit that type of money to a single player? You might have another 6 or 7 holes to fill through free agency in the coming years to become a real contender but your hands are tied once you’ve gone “all-in” on a $35M AAV player like Machado or Harper. I’ll keep saying this but I believe the Astros are the model franchise for this Sox rebuild. They’re most expensive FA signing on a AAV basis was Carlos Beltran.

 

Develop and stay healthy? You don’t sit on your hands for years and make sure your players stay healthy. If they produce, you start to build around them immediately with the thought of playoffs(and hopefully WS). You go all in on Machado and let her rip

 

And don’t confuse me wanting Machado with me thinking everything fails if he isn’t signed. If the Sox have to go second tier because the big four all sign elsewhere then so be it. But I’m not going second tier now

[Lillian]

I’m not trying to make things personal, but you said “They need a respectable left handed bat, more than they need a top 5 player.” That’s what sent me into a frenzy. If you think it’s not wise to commit $30M+ a year that’s a different argument altogether (although I still wouldn’t agree), but your initial statements never really suggested that. It really came off like you were arguing fit over production. I know others feel the same way based on posts in this thread.

 

Perhaps, if you put that quote in its context, you will have a different interpretation. Here is the entire quote again:

"I agree with Caulfield. If this rebuild goes right, the Sox will have a lot of really good players, at most of the key positions. They need a respectable left handed bat, more than they need a top 5 player. No team has All Stars at every position. Not that Moustakas couldn't be an All Star again. You add his bat and Eloy's, in 2019 and this team could be very competitive, if the pitching is ready. Then you have that future outfield of Eloy, Robert, Adolfo and Rutherford or Basabe, all ready to take over, in 2020 or 2021, if you trade Avi. Again, I don't see the need to spend $350 Million, or more, on Machado."

 

My point was quite clear. I was asserting that they will have their share of stars, if the rebuild goes right. That would reduce the need to spend $350 million, or more, on a top 5 player. Again, context matters. If they lacked star players, it would be much more important to sign one, or two. However, if the lineup were loaded with real studs, that need would be greatly reduced.

 

Focusing on my assertion that they really need a left handed bat, let me articulate it this way; Assuming that the lineup consisted of the following VERY PRODUCTIVE (star) players; Moncada, Avi, Abreu, Eloy, Castillo and Anderson and the front office still wanted to spend $350 million, or more on one more player, I would prefer Harper, to Machado, and yes, he would better balance the lineup, which would otherwise be very heavily weighted with right handed hitters.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Develop and stay healthy? You don’t sit on your hands for years and make sure your players stay healthy. If they produce, you start to build around them immediately with the thought of playoffs(and hopefully WS). You go all in on Machado and let her rip

 

And don’t confuse me wanting Machado with me thinking everything fails if he isn’t signed. If the Sox have to go second tier because the big four all sign elsewhere then so be it. But I’m not going second tier now

See I agree with that. And that’s why I’ve advocated for signing a few guys now if the value is there. What’s the significance in waiting just one more year before starting to buy?

[Kyyle23]

See I agree with that. And that’s why I’ve advocated for signing a few guys now if the value is there. What’s the significance in waiting just one more year before starting to buy?

 

Because you aren’t allowing players like Yolmer to show if they can actually be a part of this going forward because of a player like Moustakas

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Because you aren’t allowing players like Yolmer to show if they can actually be a part of this going forward because of a player like Moustakas

Sure you can. He’d get plenty of AB’s as a super utility guy this year. Isn’t that where he should be on a contending club anyway?

[southsider2k5]

If the White Sox are not willing to be in the game for the top dogs next year then there was no reason for this rebuild.

 

It is the biggest flaw in the rebuild.

[SonofaRoache]

I have no problem if our front office wants to sign guys to short deals to make this season enjoyable. We are done tanking for the draft and need to start winning our share of ball games. If he has another really good year then we can look into him sticking around longer term.

[caulfield12]

It is the biggest flaw in the rebuild.

 

But it wasn’t necessary for the Astros to sign an outside player for over $100 million. They supplemented with quality veterans. But they were much closer to typical Sox spending for the likes of Reddick and Gurriel. Came up with four studs in Altuve, Correa, Keuchel and Springer.

 

They were at $124 million opening day last year.

 

$26 million, $50, $72.5, $97 was their progression starting in 2013. They didn’t crack $100 until Year 5 (2017). Made the playoffs at $72.5 million in 2015 and nearly stopped the Royals if not for a Correa misplay.

 

 

Verlander $20 million/$40 million commitment, 2 years + vesting option (Tigers paying $17.5 million)

McCann $17 million + club option (absorbed NYY deal)

Keuchel $13.2 million

Reddick $13 million x 3 remaining years

Gurriel $12 million (only $18 combined for 2019/20)

Springer $12 million x 2 remaining years

Gattis $6.7 million (trade w/ Braves)

 

Morton, Joe Smith and Gerrit Cole are their next 3 most expensive ($21 million combined). They’re super fortunate to have two options on Altuve for only $12.5 million combined (see Sale/Q/Eaton/Anderson). Same with Correa being in year 3 and around $1 million.

 

That’s already $121 million for 11 players...but somewhere in the $150-155 million ballpark in Year 6 of the rebuild.

For the White Sox, that would be all the way to 2022.

 

One key difference, they bottomed out without a Sale, Q or Eaton to trade and missed on Appel/Aiken.

 

Of course, they turned around and drafted Bregman, Tucker and Cameron (Verlander deal) a year later to make up for it (whereas Rodon, Fulmer, Collins/Burdi/Hansen and Burger have been a mixed bag.). Marwin Gonzalez made a huge contribution out of practically nowhere, as noted earlier in the thread.

Edited February 24, 2018 by caulfield12

[wrathofhahn]

It is the biggest flaw in the rebuild.

 

If you are signing top free agents 1-2 years after partially tearing down the roster then it wasn't a rebuild to begin with.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

It is the biggest flaw in the rebuild.

I disagree. I think the biggest flaw in the rebuild (if it doesn’t work out) will be drafting and player development. They simply need to find a way for a handful of their top draft picks to contribute to the major league club in a significant way within the near future. Assuming they want to compete by 2020. If this doesn’t happen, they have no chance of making this a successful rebuild. You can’t fill all the roster holes by veteran signings with the likes of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.

Edited February 24, 2018 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Dick Allen]

If signing Machado is necessary for the rebuild to not be a fraud, there is a pretty good chance the rebuild will be a fraud.the rebuild is not a fraud. Being realistic has to come into this. So many people think Machado to the White Sox is going to happen. Why not Bryce Harper? The Sox could use him too? He is dismissed because people know there is no way. There might be a way with Machado, but the chances are very slim.