Moustakas linked to Sox again

[caulfield12]

And all those things said, the White Sox will wait it out one more year with Davidson/Sanchez...as Moustakas probably signs a deal that covers 2018/19 so he's not on the market again next year.

 

He's still going to be one of the most attractive targets out there, but we'll have more competition for his services as the Top 4 (still not knowing what will become of Arenado/Rendon) will attract hundreds of millions and then the next tier of FA's will suddenly become the battleground for playoff contenders.

 

The other possibility is that Josh Donaldson's WAR continues to fall for the fourth consecutive year and you have to risk it rebounding and pay $125-150 million for the right to find out about another mid 30's hitter and when he falls off a cliff.

[greg775]

I was talking to a big baseball numbers guy and he said the White Sox would be fools to not sign Moustakas. Look, we are not getting Machado. I guess the Sox COULD get him if they over-bid by a big margin his beloved Yankees but cmon. We're not getting Machado. The Sox would have to be bound and determined to win a huge bidding war and history doesn't suggest we get our man in such scenarios (resisting the temptation to blast our owners since we did sign Robert).

 

If the Sox can get Moustakas 2 years 24 million total or something like that, even five years 60 million why not sign him?? He appears to be a proven hitter (he's not a stiff even by advanced stats and has WS experience) and the Sox could solidify third base. It used to be fun to pencil in Ventura every year for a decade. If the Sox want to "flip" him which is what most of our fans like, then do that. The contract shouldn't scare any contenders.

 

The lineup somebody posted the other day for our Sox is scary bad. Why not take care of 3B following the bad news on Burger? There's no downside. The people who like to flip players can hold out hope he'll be traded before our contending years and those of us who like to win now will feel better about our lineup with him in it.

Edited February 28, 2018 by greg775

[wrathofhahn]

Here's the problem.

 

Moustakas pre-2015 was a completely different hitter.

 

Unless you accept that hitters can change, then you're stuck compiling all his career numbers before that time and profiling him as "average." We could do the same with Avi, Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso.

 

Obviously, such a high draft pick has/had a tremendous amount of talent/ability, or he wouldn't have been selected so high.

 

If you think he's a 2 WAR guy going forward, it's all based on his pre-2015 numbers and last year's 1.8.

 

Here's why that's a huge mistake:

 

1) He made a concerted effort to go to the opposite direction and really raised his overall offensive numbers by using all fields, beginning in that 2015 season. Before that, he was not very good and back and forth...or at least on the verge of being sent down.

 

2) He was also trending in the exact same direction (high 3's, low 4's) WAR-wise in 2016 before his injury.

 

3) If you don't believe that a 29 year-old still close to the prime of his athletic shelf life can improve the second year back from an injury on defense, I don't know what to say...if you want me to cite the articles, I'm happy to link them again, the last 4-6 weeks of 2017 he was dealing with leg issues and that affected him as well as the injury recovery/rehab year.

 

4) Last year's Royals didn't buy into the team concept like the 2013-2016 teams did...they basically were like the 2006-2016 White Sox, lots of talented players pretty much doing their own thing at the plate instead of buying into the team concept. Moustakas got away from spraying the ball all over the field and became pull happy in an attempt to set himself up for his FA due to the fact that the writing was on the wall about the team going anywhere, he became a "selfish" player again because he knew the Royals weren't going to be able to keep him, Hosmer or Cain.

 

5) So if you think his ceiling is now a 2 WAR 3B, I'll happily take that bet that he averages 3 the next three seasons...and you can have the 2. That's worth more than $7-10 million per season. I constantly hear that it's worth closer to $20 million per year.

 

If his defense bounces back (we can argue both sides here), then he's clearly a 3-4 WAR guy. If not, he's closer to 2 or 2.5. There's a risk there.

 

But, in the right situation, where he becomes one of the long-term team leaders and role models...like he was in KC, then he can show the younger players how to play together as a team and do the little things to win, because he's already been there and done that, in our own division, multiple playoff series, 2 World Series, etc.

 

Frazier never really felt 100% comfortable in the AL, at least that was my perception.

 

My question is less about his defense and more whether he's interested in helping a rebuilding team win again or inserting himself in an "immediately competitive" environment right away. Obviously, money considerations (see Hosmer) will be 90-95% of that calculation, especially with Boras as his agent.

 

6) So yes, Frazier and Yolmer were technically 2 WAR players last year, but the odds of Moustakas being a solid all-around contributor and putting up a 3-4 WAR (especially in an even more hitter-friendly park than Kauffman) are MUCH MUCH GREATER than Yolmer Sanchez or Matt Davidson ever doing the same thing.

 

And now we have the Burger setback to consider as well in projecting into the future...

 

He had a serious knee injury so yes unless he proves to me otherwise I don't think he'll ever be the same on defense. Going off previous years he should have had a 4.1 rngr (range runs aka ability to get to balls) instead it was negative 5.4

 

Another indication is on the offensive side his Bsr was -5.4 and pre 2017 he pretty much always was in the -2 Bsr range or less other then an outlier 2015 season.

 

I think projecting him to be the same defensive player he was pre knee injury is pretty unfair. There was no evidence last season of him getting back to that place and it's a pretty serious injury to come back to begin with from ask Boone it basically ended his career along with Sizemore his knee will also always sort of be a concern moving forward particularly since it's on his plant foot on throws and in the batters box. It's part of the reason along with age I'm reluctant to go five years.

Edited February 28, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[caulfield12]

He had a serious knee injury so yes unless he proves to me otherwise I don't think he'll ever be the same on defense. Going off previous years he should have had a 4.1 rngr (range runs aka ability to get to balls) instead it was negative 5.4

 

Another indication is on the offensive side his Bsr was -5.4 and pre 2017 he pretty much always was in the -2 Bsr range or less other then an outlier 2015 season.

 

I think projecting him to be the same defensive player he was pre knee injury is pretty unfair. There was no evidence last season of him getting back to that place and it's a pretty serious injury to come back to begin with from ask Boone it basically ended his career along with Sizemore his knee will also always sort of be a concern moving forward particularly since it's on his plant foot on throws and in the batters box. It's part of the reason along with age I'm reluctant to go five years.

 

Well, the risk is certainly mitigated going just 3 or possibly 4 years.

 

It's something the medical staff would have to assess carefully, just as they theoretically would have done when they signed Adolfo at the top of his intl class (maybe #2 to Eloy?) or drafted Burger at his size instead of a number of other options. Or taking a pitcher like McClanahan who has already gone through 1 TJ surgery, knowing that 2 is pretty much a death sentence.

 

If he was 32 or 33 instead of 29, I'd agree with you.

 

Just like a TJ surgery rehab takes a full 18 months to be back to form, knee surgeries can often take similar amounts of time (especially for bigger athletes) to get back to 100%. Moustakas was also hurting last year in the 2nd half and tried to play through it, probably because he was more concerned with his final numbers on the offensive side.

 

PTAC has to decide this one, HAHA...

[Texsox]

Trying to add something that hasn’t already been mentioned, and admittedly a most minor of factors. Will signing him sell tickets to the casual fan? Will it grab a few headlines? Chalk up some of the cash in the advertising column and add him. You don’t always get your first choice but you might find you get what you need.

[caulfield12]

Trying to add something that hasn’t already been mentioned, and admittedly a most minor of factors. Will signing him sell tickets to the casual fan? Will it grab a few headlines? Chalk up some of the cash in the advertising column and add him. You don’t always get your first choice but you might find you get what you need.

 

Probably not.

 

Chris Sale starts didnt boost attendance significantly.

 

I’m not even sure Macahado moves the meter enough to justify allocating $250-350 million from a marketing standpoint, or Arenado.

 

Harper is probably the only one who could do that with the Sox. I argued much earlier in the thread that signing Bryce before 2019 more than theoretically earns the Sox an extra $1.2-1.8 billion over a full 20-25 year broadcasting/media rights deal.

 

If the lowly Rays can get $84 million per year for 16 years...then the biggest or second biggest superstar in baseball boosts our deal from the low $50 millions into the $115-125 million range (per year) just for local media rights alone...remenbering we are also likely benefitting from the Cubs, Bulls and Blackhawk affiliations/advertising revenues/Comcast ownership stakes.

 

Plus, trading him wouldnt be hard to do in 2020-22 if the rebuild were to completely go south, despite Balta’s optimistic predictions and the Royals/Cubs/Astros run of WS success...or the Indians.

Edited February 28, 2018 by caulfield12

[ptatc]

Well, the risk is certainly mitigated going just 3 or possibly 4 years.

 

It's something the medical staff would have to assess carefully, just as they theoretically would have done when they signed Adolfo at the top of his intl class (maybe #2 to Eloy?) or drafted Burger at his size instead of a number of other options. Or taking a pitcher like McClanahan who has already gone through 1 TJ surgery, knowing that 2 is pretty much a death sentence.

 

If he was 32 or 33 instead of 29, I'd agree with you.

 

Just like a TJ surgery rehab takes a full 18 months to be back to form, knee surgeries can often take similar amounts of time (especially for bigger athletes) to get back to 100%. Moustakas was also hurting last year in the 2nd half and tried to play through it, probably because he was more concerned with his final numbers on the offensive side.

 

PTAC has to decide this one, HAHA...

An ACL reconstruction shouldnt limit him at 3B. Of course, all surgeries can have complications and some dont return to full activities but the vast majority do. The return to previous level of function is over 90%. Most athletes will return to playing at 9-12 months post-op but theyll tell you the knee doesnt feel normal until 18 months.

[caulfield12]

An ACL reconstruction shouldnt limit him at 3B. Of course, all surgeries can have complications and some dont return to full activities but the vast majority do. The return to previous level of function is over 90%. Most athletes will return to playing at 9-12 months post-op but theyll tell you the knee doesnt feel normal until 18 months.

 

So similar to the current TJ timeframes...typically 18 months, sometimes pushing 20-24 months depending on individual circumstances.

 

It’s just a bit strange for a 29 year old to be consigned to 1b/DH for the rest of his career...based on what, I don't know.

Edited February 28, 2018 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

An ACL reconstruction shouldnt limit him at 3B. Of course, all surgeries can have complications and some dont return to full activities but the vast majority do. The return to previous level of function is over 90%. Most athletes will return to playing at 9-12 months post-op but theyll tell you the knee doesnt feel normal until 18 months.

Which implies that he CAN improve defensively this year and the next few years. Perhaps he can regain his pre-injury form or at least close to it. Also means that the 2 WAR ceiling being thrown around in this thread is too low.

[ptatc]

So similar to the current TJ timeframes...typically 18 months, sometimes pushing 20-24 months depending on individual circumstances.

 

It’s just a bit strange for a 29 year old to be consigned to 1b/DH for the rest of his career...based on what, I don't know.

They are both ligament replacement surgeries, hence the similar time frame. Although, the UCL surgery time frame is a little quicker, in general due to the knee motion being far more complex.

Edited February 28, 2018 by ptatc

[bmags]

That's weird. Since there were only 19 in all of the MLB that means 1/3 of all teams didn't have one. That doesn't sound easy to find to me. But I was never good at math.

 

Right but I don't expect them to be waiting outside the stadium. Of those 1/3, how many were trying to contend? So how much surplus was available to acquire fairly cheaply. In the last year, 2 WAR or borderline 2 WAR players Evan Longoria, Todd Frazier, Chase Headley and Eduardo Nunez were moved cheaply. There are others that I could imagine would be available for an affordable price.

 

If we need one, we will be able to get one without paying through the teeth.

[ptatc]

Right but I don't expect them to be waiting outside the stadium. Of those 1/3, how many were trying to contend? So how much surplus was available to acquire fairly cheaply. In the last year, 2 WAR or borderline 2 WAR players Evan Longoria, Todd Frazier, Chase Headley and Eduardo Nunez were moved cheaply. There are others that I could imagine would be available for an affordable price.

 

If we need one, we will be able to get one without paying through the teeth.

Not sure what stats you are using but Nunez and Headley barely played 3B last year and Nunez had a WAR of .9.

 

Only 5 teams in the MLB last year accumulated 2 WAR at 3B.

 

They aren't that easy to find.

[bmags]

Not sure what stats you are using but Nunez and Headley barely played 3B last year and Nunez had a WAR of .9.

 

Only 5 teams in the MLB last year accumulated 2 WAR at 3B.

 

They aren't that easy to find.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

Nunez across two teams had a fWAR of 2.2, but also was not a part of qualified batters in the list above.

 

Only 5 teams in the MLB last year accumulated 2 WAR at 3B.

 

Where is this from, you just said 19 teams had a 2 WAR 3b? Even if they played off 3b for a portion, someone else could not be such a net negative that it drags all those teams down.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

Nunez across two teams had a fWAR of 2.2, but also was not a part of qualified batters in the list above.

 

Only 5 teams in the MLB last year accumulated 2 WAR at 3B.

 

Where is this from, you just said 19 teams had a 2 WAR 3b? Even if they played off 3b for a portion, someone else could not be such a net negative that it drags all those teams down.

 

Maybe it's like saying Yolmer was a 2 WAR 3rd baseman but he wasn't at 3rd base all the time accumulating that WAR so wasn't really a 2 WAR 3rd baseman but a 2 WAR player. He played 52 games at 3rd and 92 at all other positions.

Edited February 28, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

Nunez across two teams had a fWAR of 2.2, but also was not a part of qualified batters in the list above.

 

Only 5 teams in the MLB last year accumulated 2 WAR at 3B.

 

Where is this from, you just said 19 teams had a 2 WAR 3b? Even if they played off 3b for a portion, someone else could not be such a net negative that it drags all those teams down.

 

Replacement level back ups or options #3-5 tend to do that...like Saladino last year.

[bmags]

Maybe it's like saying Yolmer was a 2 WAR 3rd baseman but he wasn't at 3rd base all the time accumulating that WAR so wasn't really a 2 WAR 3rd baseman but a 2 WAR player. He played 52 games at 3rd and 92 at all other positions.

 

But he's still in the pool of players you could acquire to be 3b.

 

[fathom]

Royals acquire Duda, so they are out on Moose

[bmags]

Royals acquire Duda, so they are out on Moose

 

I was going to post that but wasn't sure. Doesn't that just replace Hosmer?

[Bob Sacamano]

I was going to post that but wasn't sure. Doesn't that just replace Hosmer?

 

I think so too. Or even Moss.

[fathom]

I was going to post that but wasn't sure. Doesn't that just replace Hosmer?

 

That supposedly is the last of their available payroll. Cuthbert I believe will play 3rd for them

[Dick Allen]

That supposedly is the last of their available payroll. Cuthbert I believe will play 3rd for them

They clearly have more they could spend. They did make a pretty big offer to Hosmer. But they now don't want to spend it.

[wrathofhahn]

Well, the risk is certainly mitigated going just 3 or possibly 4 years.

 

It's something the medical staff would have to assess carefully, just as they theoretically would have done when they signed Adolfo at the top of his intl class (maybe #2 to Eloy?) or drafted Burger at his size instead of a number of other options. Or taking a pitcher like McClanahan who has already gone through 1 TJ surgery, knowing that 2 is pretty much a death sentence.

 

If he was 32 or 33 instead of 29, I'd agree with you.

 

Just like a TJ surgery rehab takes a full 18 months to be back to form, knee surgeries can often take similar amounts of time (especially for bigger athletes) to get back to 100%. Moustakas was also hurting last year in the 2nd half and tried to play through it, probably because he was more concerned with his final numbers on the offensive side.

 

PTAC has to decide this one, HAHA...

 

Yeah, all I'm saying you don't really mess around when it comes with the knees. It kind of reminds me of Troy Glaus who you thought was going to be this great 40 HR guy but ended up retiring at 33 partly due to shoulder problems but mainly because of his knees. It can end that fast for some guys.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

But he's still in the pool of players you could acquire to be 3b.

Just saying from your original statement you said the Soxx had 2 2 WAR 3rd basemen . You never said who they were but I'd assume Frazier and Yolmer. I'd agree on Frazier not on Yolmer. I'm sure there are quite a few guys who can get 1-1.50 WAR based on defense alone but if you don't hit enough at a position that traditionally require it then you probably are a reserve or more suited to another position.

 

Sure it's great to have both hence the whole interest in Arenado , Rendon , Machado but you could actually get both from Moose if injuries played a part in a bad year defensively since we already know he has been a 4 WAR player in the recent past and at 29 he's not too old to regain his previous form. I'd assume if the Sox could get him discounted and are sure he's healthy they inquire about him. Not expecting it for reasons already stated but my point is I think he's a more realistic option of getting 2.5 -4.5 WAR at 3rd base than expecting the other options to pan out . Risk , money and length of window of contention are more favorable with him.

 

A 2.5-4.5 WAR guy at a discount just makes more sense than a $200M guy with a long crippling contract if you want the window of contention to last longer..Yolmer would be a great late inning defensive replacement and also to play third when Moose is at DH .

Edited February 28, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Dick Allen]

Yeah, all I'm saying you don't really mess around when it comes with the knees. It kind of reminds me of Troy Glaus who you thought was going to be this great 40 HR guy but ended up retiring at 33 partly due to shoulder problems but mainly because of his knees. It can end that fast for some guys.

That's why you have to be a bit careful with older guys. I know some like to use the aging curve, but it's different with everyone. Who would have thought Albert Pujols would have put up an 8.6 WAR with the Angels if you add up each of his 6 years, from where he was at? You would have thought he would have been worth it for several seasons. I think he was 31 when he became a free agent.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

The Garfien podcast talks about 3rd base . Yolmer vs. Moustatkas . Good podcast as usual especially the trivia about who has started the most at 3rd base since Crede. Start thinking about that now before you listen. It's not a pretty picture which just goes to show finding a 3rd baseman is not as easy as some as you suggest. https://www.art19.com/shows/white-sox-podca...6d-650454a2c03a

Edited February 28, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside