Moustakas linked to Sox again

[Eminor3rd]

That's where I am getting it. Steamer actually has him at 2.6 not that it matters much, but he played in 27 games in 2016 and put up a 0.7. So if he played a full season, he was well on his way to well above average then. Was well above average in 2015, and after missing a lot time he came back last year and was above average. In fact, only 9 MLB 3B had a higher wRC+ than he did. I believe defensively he can bounce back. He wasn't horrible, but wasn't great. Many think another year away from his surgery will improve his defense, which will only make his WAR rise.

 

If you have reason to believe his defense will improve, it could certainly change the math substantially. In terms of the numbers, his defensive decline looks really natural, so without any outside info (like an injury) it looks like normal decline. But if it's true that he was working back from a non-chronic injury and he will be an above average defender going forward, it's much easier to argue for acquiring him.

[Eminor3rd]

They aren’t “scrambling to sign” him. The whole premise of this debate is that he is available at a discounted rate. And by discounted, I mean 5 years/$60MM. In that case, yes, I would consider signing him now at age 29 even if he doesn’t perfectly align with the Sox forecasted competitive window.

 

I just don't see any reason for him to sign for that low AND that long. If it's that much of a steal, I could be comfortable with it, there's just no reason for him to do it. If he ends up having to settle for $12mm/yr, it'll be for 1-2 years.

 

But yeah man, I don't even know if we're really on other sides of this fence if that's the price you have in mind.

[Bob Sacamano]

I just don't see any reason for him to sign for that low AND that long. If it's that much of a steal, I could be comfortable with it, there's just no reason for him to do it. If he ends up having to settle for $12mm/yr, it'll be for 1-2 years.

 

But yeah man, I don't even know if we're really on other sides of this fence if that's the price you have in mind.

 

That could end up being his best offer. I just don't know how many other teams need a 3B or could potentially be done rebuilding in a year.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

That could end up being his best offer. I just don't know how many other teams need a 3B or could potentially be done rebuilding in a year.

Yea, who else is really going to offer more than that? Maybe there will be a surprise team but heck we are already a week into spring training and it appears his market is declining not improving. For that type of contract, I just don’t see a real good reason for the Sox to pass unless he wants an opt out after either of the first two seasons.

[username]

I’d be completely fine with giving Mouse an opt-out after a year or two. We aren’t spending money now. If he’s playing well enough to opt out we just take the comp picks or trade him at the all-star break. You still maintain the payroll flexibility then to upgrade and can likely entice him on a lesser guaranteed commitment.

[GenericUserName]

I’d be completely fine with giving Mouse an opt-out after a year or two. We aren’t spending money now. If he’s playing well enough to opt out we just take the comp picks or trade him at the all-star break. You still maintain the payroll flexibility then to upgrade and can likely entice him on a lesser guaranteed commitment.

We wouldn't be able to get comp picks. New CBA allows each player to be given a QO once in their career. Moustakas' was this year, so he can't be offered it again.

[hi8is]

words words words words words, words words words. words words words words words. words words. words.

[caulfield12]

Do you know that if 2.0 is average, there are less than 7 players on average that are at least average on each team. How's that for averages? And if you round down like eminor, there are less than 5 above average players on average for each roster.

 

1) White Sox haven’t easily been able to come up with “average” 3b since Crede...

2) Only 3-4 of those high impact guys will be avail to 30 teams over the next two years with every team bidding

3) LH

4) Above average defender over his career

5) Still just 29

6) Lots Of playoff experience, plus super familiar with our own division

7) our best prospect for the position in Burger is 50/50 to remain there

8) Donaldson on major decline, expensive and will be in mid 30s by time of contention window

9) Nats much more likely to extend Rendon than Harper

[Blackout Friday]

In what world is Donaldson in a “major decline”?

[Brian]

[caulfield12]

In what world is Donaldson in a “major decline”?

 

His war numbers have gone down three consecutive years...remember the freak out about Abreu?

 

Some health issues, he’s played quite a few games on turf now, as well as his age and the fact that he’ll be mid 30’s when 2020 hits.

 

So if War is equated to $7 million per, that’s $30-35 million per year for let’s say, four years...because you probably can’t get him for just three, it’s his last big contract.

 

So anyone willing to pay Donaldson $130 million for four years, 2019-2022?

 

Would you rather pay Moustakas $65 million for four years, 2018-2021, with a reasonable option for a fifth year? Would you rather sign 4 Moustakas equivalents, 2 Donaldson’s or 1 Machado? Keeping in mind the risks on Donaldson/Machado/Arenado/Rendon “Adam Dunn-busting” are basically not franchise killers, but HUGE setbacks...

 

The problem isn’t Donaldson’s production in 2015 and 2016. It’s what he has left in the tank...how much his production will decline...how much his defense will decline...by the time 2020 rolls around.

 

Keeping in mind you’re paying him at a minimum of $25 million...if not $30-35 million, for mostly past production.

Edited February 21, 2018 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Remember, many now want to give Abreu let’s say another $65 million to cover 2020-2022 his age 33-35 seasons.

 

That’s an even bigger risk to be counting on two declining players like that and paying both $20+ million per season to boot.

[bmags]

I have not heard anyone list turf as an injury factor since the newer astroplay replaced all of the old astroturf.

[caulfield12]

I have not heard anyone list turf as an injury factor since the newer astroplay replaced all of the old astroturf.

 

Probably more for CFers and middle infielders...but that position still has more wear and tear than 1B or a corner outfield spot.

 

There are probably some internal advanced metrics to analyze that as well.

 

It also creates a lot more heat in the heart of the summertime (weekend games) when the Dome is open.

Edited February 21, 2018 by caulfield12

[Blackout Friday]

His war was down last year because he was hurt to begin the season and didn’t really have a healthy AB for the first couple months. He was probably the best hitter in baseball the las couple months of 2017 when he was back to normal.

 

I’m not for or against signing him, just don’t see any major decline, or really any notable decline just yet.

[Chicago White Sox]

In what world is Donaldson in a “major decline”?

Nothing gets in Caulfield’s way of adding a Royal!

[Chicago White Sox]

His war was down last year because he was hurt to begin the season and didn’t really have a healthy AB for the first couple months. He was probably the best hitter in baseball the las couple months of 2017 when he was back to normal.

 

I’m not for or against signing him, just don’t see any major decline, or really any notable decline just yet.

Here’s his wRC+ by year:

 

2013: 147

2014: 130

2015: 154

2016: 155

2017: 149

 

He’s consistently been one of the best hitters in baseball and has shown no decline offensively through his age 31 season. Yes, I’m sure the defense is slowing down a bit, but he’s a good enough athlete to hopefully remain solid at 3B for some time. And if he had to move to 1B or DH, he will likely hit enough to be a valuable player. Again, all depends on the price & years.

[caulfield12]

Nothing gets in Caulfield’s way of adding a Royal!

 

Actually, from past history...we should go only with DBacks.

 

Eaton and Quentin were two of the best deals ever. Matt Davidson might turn out to be a find.

[caulfield12]

Here’s his wRC+ by year:

 

2013: 147

2014: 130

2015: 154

2016: 155

2017: 149

 

He’s consistently been one of the best hitters in baseball and has shown no decline offensively through his age 31 season. Yes, I’m sure the defense is slowing down a bit, but he’s a good enough athlete to hopefully remain solid at 3B for some time. And if he had to move to 1B or DH, he will likely hit enough to be a valuable player. Again, all depends on the price & years.

 

So would you give him $130-140 million for four years? What if you couldn’t sign him without going to five?

[turnin' two]

Gosh. Geesh. Lots of passion here. Here are some things on which I have an opinion.

 

1) Moustakas was well above average last year. His power output, XBH, and SLG put him in fairly elite company. He doesn't walk much. If he did he would be in a much higher echelon of player. Frazier had a higher OBP, but give me Moustakas' year every time. Maybe using one statistical category for complete player evaluation isn't the best idea. Ask Shin Soo Choo, or Jason Heyward.

 

2)Donaldson isn't declining. That's crazy. Citing other examples of people being crazy isn't proof. Donaldson is great, probably, no certainly the best offensive 3B in the AL. I may only put Arenado above him. With his age and cost, he wouldn't be ideal for the Sox situation (mostly due to age), but, he would still be a great signing.

 

3) I'd be completely cool with waiting a year to sign Arenado. I personally would prefer him even to Machado.

 

4)Moustakas isn't an ideal fit. He isn't the game changer that some of the others are, but he is a good player and a good fit. He could hit 4 this year, and 5,6 or 7 when the lineup fills out.

 

5)Signing Moose doesn't preclude the Sox from signing Machado. He would provide some nice insurance in case Manny signs elsewhere, in my opinion. A LH power bat is always welcome in my opinion.

 

 

Moncada 2B

Machado SS

Abreu DH

Eloy LF

Moose 1B

Avi RF

Castillo C

Anderson 3B

Tilson/Engel/Leury CF

 

That lineup could score some runs. And could obviously be moved around a bit, but anyway you'd slice it, that could be a tough lineup a year from now.

 

 

There is probably a 6 and on, but that is more than enough input from the likes of me.

[wrathofhahn]

We wouldn't be able to get comp picks. New CBA allows each player to be given a QO once in their career. Moustakas' was this year, so he can't be offered it again.

 

Agreed a pillow contract accomplishes nothing.

 

Plus I don't really see Boras signing off on a longterm way below market deal. I'd probably be willing to do a Cozart type deal but remember Cozart had 5 WAR last year. He'd still be overpaid at 3/38 in my opinion and it's hard to see Boras accepting that considering where he set the market

[Chicago White Sox]

Actually, from past history...we should go only with DBacks.

 

Eaton and Quentin were two of the best deals ever. Matt Davidson might turn out to be a find.

Just teasing buddy, thought it was funny you were pushing for him & Dyson.

[Chicago White Sox]

So would you give him $130-140 million for four years? What if you couldn’t sign him without going to five?

I’d probably be willing to go 5/$150M. Below is a somewhat conservative aging curve for Donaldson:

 

fWAR

2019: 5.0

2020: 4.5

2021: 4.0

2022: 3.5

2023: 3.0

Total: 20.0

 

Assuming $8M/WAR and that’s a pretty fair deal. And I honestly think there’s a solid chance he provides more than 20 WAR during that time period. Regardless, he’d remain a useful player over the life of the contract and to me that’s very important. Moose suddenly becomes a below average player with even a little bit of regression.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Dick Allen]

I’d probably be willing to go 5/$150M. Below is a somewhat conservative aging curve for Donaldson:

 

fWAR

2019: 5.0

2020: 4.5

2021: 4.0

2022: 3.5

2023: 3.0

Total: 20.0

 

Assuming $8M/WAR and that’s a pretty fair deal. And I honestly think there’s a solid chance he provides more than 20 WAR during that time period. Regardless, he’d remain a useful player over the life of the contract and to me that’s very important. Moose suddenly becomes a below average player with even a little bit of regression.

He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR.

Not just beating them but beating them by a wide margin considering 2019 is his age 33 season and 2023 is his age 37 season...find it hard to believe he will put up that type of WAR during that timeframe. More likely he accumulates a WAR of 12-15 during that timeframe and now you’re exceeding $10M per WAR. Not great value imo. Let’s see how he does this year first.