Moustakas linked to Sox again

[caulfield12]

I’d probably be willing to go 5/$150M. Below is a somewhat conservative aging curve for Donaldson:

 

fWAR

2019: 5.0

2020: 4.5

2021: 4.0

2022: 3.5

2023: 3.0

Total: 20.0

 

Assuming $8M/WAR and that’s a pretty fair deal. And I honestly think there’s a solid chance he provides more than 20 WAR during that time period. Regardless, he’d remain a useful player over the life of the contract and to me that’s very important. Moose suddenly becomes a below average player with even a little bit of regression.

 

 

This will be interesting to watch pay out, at any rate.

 

Josh Donaldson alone doesn’t put butts in the seats, but winning consistently does.

 

If you’re willing to spend $150 million, the marketing department will argue that Bryce Harper might be worth $300 million because that will blow up your new broadcasting rights deal in a way that few others could (Sale clearly not one of them, despite his greatness.)

 

But what happens to the morale of fanbase if we swing and miss on all the big names?

 

Fans are much more likely to get enthusiastic about a middle of the order compared to a #2 starter and closer.

 

Machado, Arenado, Ohtani...they move the meter too, but who else fits in that category? Seems the odds are much higher that Moncada, Jimenez, Kopech, Robert or Micker Adolfo becomes that superstar, rather than bidding for one at absolute peak of the market.

Edited February 22, 2018 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR.

 

David Ortiz, Ped whispers aside...the only other.

 

Maybe Scott Rolen is the best comp.

 

Age 34 4.9

Age 35 3.9

Age 36 1.5

Age 37 0.3

 

Retired

 

We would be buying Donaldson at ages 33-37. 2019 is probably one year early. So $150 million for his 2020 and 2021 seasons when we have to be good. Probably having $50-60 million of bad money at the back end when that roster suddenly becomes increasingly expensive.

 

Not to mention the lack of certainty about Abreu’s mid 30’s level of productivity.

Edited February 22, 2018 by caulfield12

[fathom]

Donaldson and his leg injuries are scary. Also I think there is no chance in hell the Rockies let Arenado get away

[Chicago White Sox]

He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR.

 

 

Not just beating them but beating them by a wide margin considering 2019 is his age 33 season and 2023 is his age 37 season...find it hard to believe he will put up that type of WAR during that timeframe. More likely he accumulates a WAR of 12-15 during that timeframe and now you’re exceeding $10M per WAR. Not great value imo. Let’s see how he does this year first.

How many guys are peak 7 to 8 WAR players? I mean, there were only two hitters last year above seven. He’s most definitely going to decline over the life of the contract, but he’s starting from such a high point that he should hopefully remain valuable over the period of time I’m suggesting. Sure, there’s always a chance he completely falls off, but I don’t that’s probable and I don’t think we should be afraid of taking calculated risks.

 

Let me ask you guys this, what does his potential again curve like exactly?

[Dick Allen]

David Ortiz, Ped whispers aside...the only other.

 

Maybe Scott Rolen is the best comp.

 

Age 34 4.9

Age 35 3.9

Age 36 1.5

Age 37 0.3

 

Retired

 

We would be buying Donaldson at ages 33-37. 2019 is probably one year early. So $150 million for his 2020 and 2021 seasons when we have to be good. Probably having $50-60 million of bad money at the back end when that roster suddenly becomes increasingly expensive.

 

Not to mention the lack of certainty about Abreu’s mid 30’s level of productivity.

Nelson Cruz, the old guy now doing something served a 50 games suspension. It is a young mans game anymore. Not just the lack of steroids. Everyone throwing 95 plus takes its toll on the older guys. There are always exceptions, but the non cheating ones are going the way of the Edsel.

[soxforlife05]

That is still top 3 on average per team.

 

The guy isn't average. It's a good narrative for people who don't want to sign him, but it simply isn't true. And anyone the White Sox eventually sign, will more than likely have some sort of issue during the term of their contract, just like some of the prospects we are drooling about now. A couple or a few will turn out to be throw ins for trades in coming years, never realizing what we see as their potential now.

 

I have no idea what Boras is asking. I would imagine it isn't discounted too much. So I don't think the White Sox will sign him. All I am saying is there should be a price where they say, it makes sense.

 

His body of work is nothing spectacular. Look at his entire career. He had a career year. He’s not a difference maker. I’d rather see us offer the most money to the Machado, Arenado, and Harper group and if none of them take it then we start filling out the team with lesser tier players like this.

Edited February 22, 2018 by soxforlife05

[Dick Allen]

How many guys are peak 7 to 8 WAR players? I mean, there were only two hitters last year above seven. He’s most definitely going to decline over the life of the contract, but he’s starting from such a high point that he should hopefully remain valuable over the period of time I’m suggesting. Sure, there’s always a chance he completely falls off, but I don’t that’s probable and I don’t think we should be afraid of taking calculated risks.

 

Let me ask you guys this, what does his potential again curve like exactly?

We will see. It just doesn’t happen much. Maybe he is an exception. Maybe he is enhanced, but things happen when you get older. Injuries can bother him. His reflexes, eyesight, can weaken...Look at Paulie. He seemed like his career was headed to the dumpster when he figured something ing out as a 34 year old. Put up another big year as a 35 year old. Was hitting close to .400 almost 2months into his age 36season, had a wrist procedure deemed minor, and was pretty much done after that.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

His body of work is nothing spectacular. Look at his entire career. He had a career year. He’s not a difference maker. I’d rather see us offer the most money to the Machado, Arenado, and Harper group and if none of them take it then we start filling out the team with lesser tier players like this.

 

The equivalent of Dunn, Cabrera, Robertson and LaRoche won’t be accepted by fans this time around.

 

Second tier/excuses will be supported about as well as the 2012 team was...unless they just fly out there like the 2000/05/06 teams. Not when the Padres have two guys now with bigger deals than the Sox have ever offered.

Edited February 22, 2018 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

How many guys are peak 7 to 8 WAR players? I mean, there were only two hitters last year above seven. He’s most definitely going to decline over the life of the contract, but he’s starting from such a high point that he should hopefully remain valuable over the period of time I’m suggesting. Sure, there’s always a chance he completely falls off, but I don’t that’s probable and I don’t think we should be afraid of taking calculated risks.

 

Let me ask you guys this, what does his potential again curve like exactly?

ARod’s production dropped off pretty dramatically after his age 32 season. He was still a good player for another 5 years but nowhere near his peak and he was starting from another level above Donaldson. Why would you expect even more from Donaldson? And yes, I am assuming ARod was using PEDs into 2013 but his performance had already dropped off quite dramatically after 2007 when he was 32.

[Chicago White Sox]

He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR.

Adrian Beltre put up 3.1 WAR over 94 games last year. Prior to that, he averaged 5.8 WAR over his age 33 to 37 seasons. While not perfect, that’s as close of a comp as you’re going to get for Donaldson.

 

And I’m not sure people realize that Donaldson has been the second best player in baseball from a WAR perspective behind only Mike Trout and it’s not even that close. Dude has been elite and remained elite when on the field last year. I personally believe where his defense is today he’s probably closer to 6 WAR, but that’s awesome and allows him to age and remain really f***ing good. Now, if there are serious long-term injury concerns like fathom alluded to then maybe you got to pass. But without those risk indicators, I’m not going to pass on him simply because he’s in his 30’s.

[Chicago White Sox]

ARod’s production dropped off pretty dramatically after his age 32 season. He was still a good player for another 5 years but nowhere near his peak and he was starting from another level above Donaldson. Why would you expect even more from Donaldson? And yes, I am assuming ARod was using PEDs into 2013 but his performance had already dropped off quite dramatically after 2007 when he was 32.

Can’t trust anyone using roids. I think aging curves in general are a bit skewed right now because of the drop-off roiders experienced. No doubt guys will get worse as they get older, but I don’t think it happens quite as early as some experts suggest IMO.

[Dick Allen]

Adrian Beltre put up 3.1 WAR over 94 games last year. Prior to that, he averaged 5.8 WAR over his age 33 to 37 seasons. While not perfect, that’s as close of a comp as you’re going to get for Donaldson.

 

And I’m not sure people realize that Donaldson has been the second best player in baseball from a WAR perspective behind only Mike Trout and it’s not even that close. Dude has been elite and remained elite when on the field last year. I personally believe where his defense is today he’s probably closer to 6 WAR, but that’s awesome and allows him to age and remain really f***ing good. Now, if there are serious long-term injury concerns like fathom alluded to then maybe you got to pass. But without those risk indicators, I’m not going to pass on him simply because he’s in his 30’s.

I was looking only at qualifying guys, so Beltran wasn’t listed, but you don,t want to pay that much for 94 games. I have my suspicions about Donaldson.. we will see what happens. It will take the best bid. An article in the Athletic says he owes the industry that. And most likely all the Machado losers will be in on him. One thing to think about is he is known to be a bit of an asshole. There was that playoff game where they caught Gibbons calling him one in the dugout. But if he can put up what you think he can put up, then that shouldn’t be much of a deal.

[caulfield12]

Robin Ventura

 

32 6.4

33 1.6

34 2.3

35 3.4

36 1.6

37 0.1

 

Retired

 

Worth 9 exactly war his last 5 seasons.

Edited February 22, 2018 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

I was looking only at qualifying guys, so Beltran wasn’t listed, but you don,t want to pay that much for 94 games. I have my suspicions about Donaldson.. we will see what happens. It will take the best bid. An article in the Athletic says he owes the industry that. And most likely all the Machado losers will be in on him. One thing to think about is he is known to be a bit of an asshole. There was that playoff game where they caught Gibbons calling him one in the dugout. But if he can put up what you think he can put up, then that shouldn’t be much of a deal.

The point I was trying to make is that Beltre averaged 5.6 WAR in his age 33 to 37 seasons. There are examples of elite players remaining productive as they age. The problem is there are so few players the quality of Donaldson that’s it is hard to say with certainty if they generally follow a normal aging curve or a more significant one.

 

Also, are you suggesting he may have used PEDs in his past? Not debating what you’re saying, just have never heard that. I know of the asshole rumors though and am less concerned about those if like you said he remains productive.

[Dick Allen]

The point I was trying to make is that Beltre averaged 5.6 WAR in his age 33 to 37 seasons. There are examples of elite players remaining productive as they age. The problem is there are so few players the quality of Donaldson that’s it is hard to say with certainty if they generally follow a normal aging curve or a more significant one.

 

Also, are you suggesting he may have used PEDs in his past? Not debating what you’re saying, just have never heard that. I know of the asshole rumors though and am less concerned about those if like you said he remains productive.

I think it’s possble. I don’t want to call everyone out if they are successful, but his case from throw in to all star to not aging up until now doesn’t happen much, and times it did weren’t all within the rules.

[iWiN4PreP]

Guys, let's be real:

 

Donaldson - OLD, Costly, and likely ineffective for our prime.

Arenado - Staying with the Rockies, no chance.

Machado - No chance here.

 

Moustakas - Easy money if we want him. He's about average or so, I'm not a huge fan, but eh, for the right price OK.

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Random 3B comparison time. Who would be the more desirable free agent?

 

Player: A. B.

Age: 32. 29

 

BB%: 14.4%. 5.7%

K%: 21.7%. 15.7%

ISO: .215. .249

OBP: .344. .314

OPS: .772. .835

wRC+: 108. 114

UZR/

150: 9.7. -3.6

WAR: 3.0. 2.2

12-16

aWAR: 3.5. 2.2

Edited February 22, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Robin Ventura

 

32 6.4

33 1.6

34 2.3

35 3.4

36 1.6

37 0.1

 

Retired

 

Worth 9 exactly war his last 5 seasons.

 

Did you just compare Josh Donaldson to Robin Ventura?? HAHAHAH

[NCsoxfan]

This is a super simplistic (maybe bad) way to look at it, but is he worth the expected value of whatever the average second round pick becomes? I’m guessing yes, he’ll probably be better.

[caulfield12]

Did you just compare Josh Donaldson to Robin Ventura?? HAHAHAH

 

Rolen, Ventura and Beltre are three of the best all-around 3b the last 20-25 years.

 

Who else can you come up with for past aging examples?

 

Ken Caminiti’s not the best because of steroids and how his life completely went off the rails.

Eric Chavez?

 

Matt Williams? Willams was at 3.8 as a 33 year old and fell off a cliff, averaging 0.3 his last four years.

Mike Schmidt?

Buddy Bell?

 

Chipper Jones put up 7.4 and 7.1 at age 35/36.

Followed up with 2.1, 2.2, 2.4 and 2.6 from 37-40.

 

So Josh Donaldson’s going to join two HoFers in Beltre/Jones or he’s going to fall apart at 35-37.

 

[turnin' two]

This is a super simplistic (maybe bad) way to look at it, but is he worth the expected value of whatever the average second round pick becomes? I’m guessing yes, he’ll probably be better.

 

 

I think he still works as a pillow contract candidate as well. I know you can't tag him with the QO, but you can trade him midseason and probably get more value, and guys closer to the bigs than they will be able to get with the 2nd round pick.

 

Last year at the break he had .270/25/54 with an OPS of .863. That gets you some talent back. Even significant dropoff from that gets you talent.

 

I'd sign him for 1/15 with an option for year 2 at 18 and year 3 at 22(or something like that, haven't explored it too much). That way the team to whom you are trading him has some more control if they want it.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

I think he still works as a pillow contract candidate as well. I know you can't tag him with the QO, but you can trade him midseason and probably get more value, and guys closer to the bigs than they will be able to get with the 2nd round pick.

 

Last year at the break he had .270/25/54 with an OPS of .863. That gets you some talent back. Even significant dropoff from that gets you talent.

 

I'd sign him for 1/15 with an option for year 2 at 18 and year 3 at 22(or something like that, haven't explored it too much). That way the team to whom you are trading him has some more control if they want it.

 

Scott Boras would hang up the phone before Hahn could even finish that offer. No chance in hell a Boras client takes such a team friendly deal that will eventually screw him over when he starts entering his mid 30's.

[wrathofhahn]

He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR.

 

Standard guesswork is that on average hitters decline by around 0.5 WAR after 30. Zips projects him to have a 5.6 WAR next year so it isn't outlandish.

 

The problem is of course this is guesswork and there is a ton of variation that goes into that 0.5 figure and the deeper into the 30's you go the steeper the decline tends to be.

 

Which is why teams are so reluctant to give older players that kind of length to begin with because they want to be able to walk away. No way I would be willing to commit five years to Donaldson because what if you are wrong and the bottom falls out for the last three years.

 

No thanks.

 

[turnin' two]

Scott Boras would hang up the phone before Hahn could even finish that offer. No chance in hell a Boras client takes such a team friendly deal that will eventually screw him over when he starts entering his mid 30's.

 

Maybe, which is why I said I was making up the numbers. Make them mutual options. Make them for more whatever. It was more the concept than the actual numbers.

[wrathofhahn]

Random 3B comparison time. Who would be the more desirable free agent?

 

Player: A. B.

Age: 32. 29

 

BB%: 14.4%. 5.7%

K%: 21.7%. 15.7%

ISO: .215. .249

OBP: .344. .314

OPS: .772. .835

wRC+: 108. 114

UZR/

150: 9.7. -3.6

WAR: 3.0. 2.2

12-16

aWAR: 3.5. 2.2

 

Is that Cozart and Moose because I made the same point earlier I'd have rather signed Cozart for 3/38 then commit to Moose on a five year deal.