Moustakas linked to Sox again

[Chicago White Sox]

Is that Cozart and Moose because I made the same point earlier I'd have rather signed Cozart for 3/38 then commit to Moose on a five year deal.

That’s Todd Frazier & Moustakas respectively. I guess my point is that Frazier has arguably been the better player and most people here couldn’t get rid of him fast enough. But somehow many of those people want to lock Moose up to a five year deal with a $12 to $16M AAV despite the fact that a comparable option in Frazier could only get a 2/$17M deal on the market. I just don’t get what people see in Moustakas that makes him so attractive other than HRs.

[caulfield12]

If there’s no difference between age 29 and age 32 and zero premium value to being left-handed in a RH heavy lineup and already having established a comfort level in our division...then Frazier and Moustakas can be seen as comparable.

 

If that’s all that mattered, purely numbers from 2016, Moustakas wouldn’t be looking at $50 million and Machado $250 million.

[wrathofhahn]

That’s Todd Frazier & Moustakas respectively. I guess my point is that Frazier has arguably been the better player and most people here couldn’t get rid of him fast enough. But somehow many of those people want to lock Moose up to a five year deal with a $12 to $16M AAV despite the fact that a comparable option in Frazier could only get a 2/$17M deal on the market. I just don’t get what people see in Moustakas that makes him so attractive other than HRs.

 

The last three years (f'n BR can't do simple math):

 

Frazier 3.7 WAR per 650 PA

Moustakas 3.4 WAR per 650 PA

Cozart 4.7 WAR per 650 PA

 

Like I said he at best deserves Cozart money and that would be an overpay in my opinion. Your Frazier comparison is spot on though in all fairness to Moustakas he does deserve a little more and probably an extra year because of age.

[Lillian]

If you look at Moustakas' month, by month stats, over the last 3 years, you might decide that he is a better hitter than Todd Frazier has been, since coming to the A.L.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Lillian

[caulfield12]

The last three years (f'n BR can't do simple math):

 

Frazier 3.7 WAR per 650 PA

Moustakas 3.4 WAR per 650 PA

Cozart 4.7 WAR per 650 PA

 

Like I said he at best deserves Cozart money and that would be an overpay in my opinion. Your Frazier comparison is spot on though in all fairness to Moustakas he does deserve a little more and probably an extra year because of age.

 

Cozart’s WAR is boosted heavily from playing SS at a high level. Hard to compare.

 

Jarrod Dyson has averaged 2.5 war the last five seasons and 2.7 the last four.

Average # plate appearances=264

 

If you extrapolate to 650, he has the highest WAR by far, it would be in the 6-7 range.

Yet he just signed for $7.5 million over two years. Statistics can be misleading.

 

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

The last three years (f'n BR can't do simple math):

 

Frazier 3.7 WAR per 650 PA

Moustakas 3.4 WAR per 650 PA

Cozart 4.7 WAR per 650 PA

 

Like I said he at best deserves Cozart money and that would be an overpay in my opinion. Your Frazier comparison is spot on though in all fairness to Moustakas he does deserve a little more and probably an extra year because of age.

Here’s the thing. Frazier’s number is skewed by his last season in the NL (Reds in 2015). Cozart’s number is severely skewed by his performance last year which was largely benefitted from playing shortstop and again he put up these numbers with an NL team. Sox haven’t had success with 30-something’s making the transition from NL to AL. And both those guys are 3 years older than Moose. So why again does Moose deserve a contract similar to either of those guys? I guess you could make an argument that he deserves an AAV similar to Cozart and I would agree with that but I also think he’s worth another 2 years in contract duration given his age. Again, I could easily justify something like 5 years and $60-65M from the Sox perspective. Anything more and I’d pass.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Cozart’s WAR is boosted heavily from playing SS at a high level. Hard to compare.

 

Jarrod Dyson has averaged 2.5 war the last five seasons and 2.7 the last four.

Average # plate appearances=264

 

If you extrapolate to 650, he has the highest WAR by far, it would be in the 6-7 range.

Yet he just signed for $7.5 million over two years. Statistics can be misleading.

Actually that’s a great point about Dyson. If WAR was the end all, be all, he would have signed for a lot more than 2 years $7.5M

[Chicago White Sox]

If you look at Moustakas' month, by month stats, over the last 3 years, you might decide that he is a better hitter than Todd Frazier has been, since coming to the A.L.

What do you mean “month by month stats”? And I wasn’t arguing that Frazier was a better hitter. My point was that Frazier has the better track record and is coming off a comparable season (if not better) to Moose. The market deemed Todd to be worth 2/$17M. Sure, Moose deserves more money than Todd for several reasons (age being a major factor), but the question is how much more? Throw in losing a draft pick and I just don’t see Moustakas at a 5/$70M deal or so being such a steal. The fact no one has snagged him up yet is telling IMO.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

What do you mean “month by month stats”? And I wasn’t arguing that Frazier was a better hitter. My point was that Frazier has the better track record and is coming off a comparable season (if not better) to Moose. The market deemed Todd to be worth 2/$17M. Sure, Moose deserves more money than Todd for several reasons (age being a major factor), but the question is how much more? Throw in losing a draft pick and I just don’t see Moustakas at a 5/$70M deal or so being such a steal. The fact no one has snagged him up yet is telling IMO.

All it’s telling me is that Boras hasn’t come to grips yet on his market value, much like JD. But when he does, I think he will have no choice but to accept a 4-5 year deal in the $55-65M range and that to me would be great value for a team like the Sox. Also, I would argue that Moose has the potential to actually improve defensively from last year now that he’s another year removed from his surgery. Don’t forget he was a plus defender prior to the injury. All of a sudden, you could very well be looking at a 3-3.5 WAR guy for a few years if his offense holds at a contract of $13-15M AAV. That’ll work.

[Lillian]

What do you mean “month by month stats”? And I wasn’t arguing that Frazier was a better hitter. My point was that Frazier has the better track record and is coming off a comparable season (if not better) to Moose. The market deemed Todd to be worth 2/$17M. Sure, Moose deserves more money than Todd for several reasons (age being a major factor), but the question is how much more? Throw in losing a draft pick and I just don’t see Moustakas at a 5/$70M deal or so being such a steal. The fact no one has snagged him up yet is telling IMO.

 

I have always found it useful to look at each month's production, in order to attempt to better assess a player's performance. For example; a hitter might be very productive, with the exception of one very bad month. Whether due to injury, extremely tough pitching, bad luck, or just a plain old slump, that month could significantly affect his overall season stats. Looking at Moustakas' month by month production, over the last 3 seasons, will reveal a pretty consistently good hitter, with power and a relatively low strike out rate. Take 2015, for example; Here are his month, by month AVG's: .356 .282 .299 .188 .281 .291. If you throw out that .188 in July, he was a pretty solid hitter.

 

2016 was a lost season, due to injury. However, he was fine, for the brief time that he played. So, looking at all of 2015 and last year, and taking out his worst month, in each of those years, his stats are generally pretty good. They aren't overwhelming, but they are good enough to represent a left handed presence, sandwiched somewhere between the heavily weighted right handed, middle of the order hitters. I hope that clarifies my point.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Lillian

[iamshack]

Cozart’s WAR is boosted heavily from playing SS at a high level. Hard to compare.

 

Jarrod Dyson has averaged 2.5 war the last five seasons and 2.7 the last four.

Average # plate appearances=264

 

If you extrapolate to 650, he has the highest WAR by far, it would be in the 6-7 range.

Yet he just signed for $7.5 million over two years. Statistics can be misleading.

Yeah, but if he had every day PAs, one would suspect Dyson would be exposed a bit offensively, bringing down the WAR contributed by his offense?

[Eminor3rd]

I have always found it useful to look at each month's production, in order to attempt to better assess a player's performance. For example; a hitter might be very productive, with the exception of one very bad month. Whether due to injury, extremely tough pitching, bad luck, or just a plain old slump, that month could significantly affect his overall season stats. Looking at Moustakas' month by month production, over the last 3 seasons, will reveal a pretty consistently good hitter, with power and a relatively low strike out rate. Take 2015, for example; Here are his month, by month AVG's: .356 .282 .299 .188 .281 .291. If you throw out that .188 in July, he was a pretty solid hitter.

 

2016 was a lost season, due to injury. However, he was fine, for the brief time that he played. So, looking at all of 2015 and last year, and taking out his worst month, in each of those years, his stats are generally pretty good. They aren't overwhelming, but they are good enough to represent a left handed presence, sandwiched somewhere between the heavily weighted right handed, middle of the order hitters. I hope that clarifies my point.

 

Every player looks good if you remove all the times when they are bad.

[Lillian]

Every player looks good if you remove all the times when they are bad.

 

Try doing that with Todd Frazier, since coming to the A. L. Last year's monthly batting averages: .183 .185 .261 .192 .221 .225. Which month would you like to take out? His one month of statistical aberration is the .261, not the 5 other months, hovering around the "Mendoza line".

Edited February 22, 2018 by Lillian

[Eminor3rd]

Actually that’s a great point about Dyson. If WAR was the end all, be all, he would have signed for a lot more than 2 years $7.5M

 

It's been well established that the free agent market doesn't pay the same rates for defensive production as it does for offensive production. Whether that's evidence that the way we measure defense is wrong, evidence that front offices aren't valuing defense properly, or more evidence that agents are behind the curve when selling their clients depends upon your personal perspective.

[Eminor3rd]

Try doing that with Todd Frazier, since coming to the A. L.

 

What am I looking for?

[steveno89]

The answer is: You would take out no months, because they all actually happened and you need to use as much information as possible to evaluate a player.

 

I can't see the Sox handing a player like Moustakas a five year deal. Why would we be bidding against ourselves for a player we may not even want?

 

His low OBP frightens me, as he is a career .251 avg, .305 OBP hitter. Any slip in that batting average and we are talking about a hitter who majorly struggles to get on base. His defense is not good enough to offset that either.

[Eminor3rd]

Try doing that with Todd Frazier, since coming to the A. L. Last year's monthly batting averages: .183 .185 .261 .192 .221 .225. Which month would you like to take out? His one month of statistical aberration is the .261, not the 5 other months, hovering around the "Mendoza line".

 

 

The answer is: You would take out no months, because they all actually happened and you need to use as much information as possible to evaluate a player.

 

Right, this ^

 

What's the magic in month to month? Why not week to week? Half to half? Moving the endpoints around may make the numbers different, but they all add up to the same thing in the end. All that tells us is that Frazier's performance is more evenly distributed than Moustakas', but the whole performance still happened and still affected wins and losses the same way. The answer is to look at the whole season. and judge accordingly.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I can't see the Sox handing a player like Moustakas a five year deal. Why would we be bidding against ourselves for a player we may not even want?

 

His low OBP frightens me, as he is a career .251 avg, .305 OBP hitter. Any slip in that batting average and we are talking about a hitter who majorly struggles to get on base. His defense is not good enough to offset that either.

It was pre-2017. The question is, and this is where the real evaluation needs to be made, can he regain his pre-injury defensive form? I don't have an answer to that question and I'm not sure many potential suitors do either. If he's even average defensively over the next few years, I think his overall floor is still pretty stable.

[OmarComing25]

Yeah, but if he had every day PAs, one would suspect Dyson would be exposed a bit offensively, bringing down the WAR contributed by his offense?

Yeah Dyson is completely useless against LHP so he needs to be platooned, which eats up another roster spot. You can’t rely on him to be a full time player so that is reflected in his value. Still a great deal by Arizona though.

[Dick Allen]

Which is why he’s still on the open market.

Not really. He has an agent that is asking for a lot of money, and much like when Jose Abreu was available, most of the big boys are out.

[wrathofhahn]

Which is why he’s still on the open market.

 

Agreed I don't want to give him five years either. The tricky part with Moose is you have to have a contract long enough with enough money to satisfy Boras while also a contract longer then one to justify giving up the pick.

 

I'd do three years for slightly less money then Cozart 3/34 I honestly don't want to go 4 or 5 years with Moose.

 

I think some team probably beats that but for me the only way Moose makes remote sense for the Sox is on their terms. He probably makes more sense to a club who have already given a pick for a FA like the Phillies.

[Dick Allen]

It’s one in the same. He’s asking for a lot of money which doesn’t match his actual production.

I don't necessarily agree. He has a limited market. And most of the big spenders have 3rd base occupied or are trying to re set their luxury tax. The guy just picked a bad year to be a free agent, and he picked the guy who tries to squeeze every last ounce out of a team. Sometimes that will come back to haunt some guys.

[Dick Allen]

If he was a better player, his market wouldn’t be as limited. Him playing 3B doesn’t help, but if he played LF I think he’s still sitting at home, based on what he’s asking for. He could play 1B, he could DH if a team was really enamored with him.. You’re arguing a small semantical point because it’s your shtick, but whatever.

Why did it take forever for Darvish to sign? Why isn't Arrieta signed? Do they need to be better players? Same agent. Similar problem, only everyone can use pitchers. This is what Boras does, and it can backfire. Usually he pulls something out of his ass though.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Bob Sacamano]

Why did it take forever for Darvish to sign? Why isn't Arrieta signed? Do they need to be better players? Same agent. Similar problem, only everyone can use pitchers.

 

And as you said, there are teams on the sidelines trying to stay under the luxury tax to reset their penalties. It's a pretty big reason that people seem to be brushing off.

Edited February 22, 2018 by soxfan2014

[knightni]

Projected line up, vs RHP, for 2019:

 

2B Moncada LH

LF Avi

1B Abreu

3B Moustakas LH

RF Eloy

C Castillo

SS Anderson

DH Delmonico LH

CF Engel, Leury, Tilson??????

 

That line up could score a lot of runs and provide decent defense.

I don't believe that Eloy will be anything other than a LF.

 

His arm is not strong enough for RF.