Moustakas linked to Sox again

[Dick Allen]

I’m not a fan of this signing. I don’t want to give up the draft pick for him and I think his injuries are catching up and will continue to do so.

Judging from Hahn’s comments, I don’t think you have much to worry about unless his price becomes a very non Boras number.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Judging from Hahn’s comments, I don’t think you have much to worry about unless his price becomes a very non Boras number.

Yah, I haven’t really been thinking this is a real possibility. Just throwing my two cents in.

[caulfield12]

Why are these five along with Moustakas the only five options? Why can’t we trade for someone when the time is right if necessary. The Giants just acquired a very comparable player in Longoria. I could see Kyle Seager becoming available at some point in the near future. These markets are dynamic and with the amount of teams rebuilding players who were once considered off-limits may become available.

 

Now we are back to guys in their 30’s again.

 

Longoria has been very solid the last four years, but he’s owed $81 million for age 32-36.

 

Moustakas is only 29. It’s just very rare you can get a really good player not approaching his down curve or with a very expensive contract.

[Eminor3rd]

All the guys who were not full time players. You ignored if they played 15 games or 150.you ignored if they sat vs. LHP or RHP. You ignored if they were September call ups, or just some player that had a hot week. And you took these guys and made a blanket statement that they were better hitters. These are things you wouldn’t ingnore nomally.

 

Dude, that is NOT related to the conversation I'm having with Lillian. It's just not.

 

I have already agreed that the sample on my table ten pages ago should have been higher. I don't know what you're arguing. I have agreed with you on that point.

 

EDIT: Also, I'm saying we SHOULD include September call-ups. Like, for example, would you agree that Rhys Hoskins should be on that table? My error was that I wasn't thinking about the right number of PA. Hoskins had like 200 PA or something, for whatever reason I was thinking of one month of PA as much smaller than that. I wasn't willfully hiding information, I just made a bad estimate. And I stated in every post about it what my minimum was.

 

And even if I WAS trying to be deceptive, it still wouldn't be the same thing as Jose Abreu was suggesting in the Lillian conversation, which was the whole point originally.

Edited February 23, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[Chicago White Sox]

Now we are back to guys in their 30’s again.

 

Longoria has been very solid the last four years, but he’s owed $81 million for age 32-36.

 

Moustakas is only 29. It’s just very rare you can get a really good player not approaching his down curve or with a very expensive contract.

But he’s not a really good player. That’s the point. Unless his defense rebounds, he’s really an average player. And if we’re unwilling to consider players in their 30’s to fill any roles our rebuild is going to be in trouble.

[Bob Sacamano]

Why are these five along with Moustakas the only five options? Why can’t we trade for someone when the time is right if necessary. The Giants just acquired a very comparable player in Longoria. I could see Kyle Seager becoming available at some point in the near future. These markets are dynamic and with the amount of teams rebuilding players who were once considered off-limits may become available.

 

Great post. Guys we don't expect to be options can be options.

[caulfield12]

But he’s not a really good player. That’s the point. Unless his defense rebounds, he’s really an average player. And if we’re unwilling to consider players in their 30’s to fill any roles our rebuild is going to be in trouble.

 

If our sights for every position are a Top 5 player, we’re also in trouble.

 

He’s a good player. And he’s still in his prime, and LH.

[Hatchetman]

He's a decent enough player, but if he's the best we're going to get in FA, just forget about it. Fold up the franchise. Or move.

[Lillian]

I agree with Caulfield. If this rebuild goes right, the Sox will have a lot of really good players, at most of the key positions. They need a respectable left handed bat, more than they need a top 5 player. No team has All Stars at every position. Not that Moustakas couldn't be an All Star again. You add his bat and Eloy's, in 2019 and this team could be very competitive, if the pitching is ready. Then you have that future outfield of Eloy, Robert, Adolfo and Rutherford or Basabe, all ready to take over, in 2020 or 2021, if you trade Avi. Again, I don't see the need to spend $350 Million, or more, on Machado.

[WBWSF]

I agree with Caulfield. If this rebuild goes right, the Sox will have a lot of really good players, at most of the key positions. They need a respectable left handed bat, more than they need a top 5 player. No team has All Stars at every position. Not that Moustakas couldn't be an All Star again. You add his bat and Eloy's, in 2019 and this team could be very competitive, if the pitching is ready. Then you have that future outfield of Eloy, Robert, Adolfo and Rutherford or Basabe, all ready to take over, in 2020 or 2021, if you trade Avi. Again, I don't see the need to spend $350 Million, or more, on Machado.

There is now way JR is going to spend $350 million on a player. I'm hoping Moustakas signs with the White Sox, but then again I don't think JR is going to spend the money. This so called rebuild is going to done as cheaply as possible.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

If our sights for every position are a Top 5 player, we’re also in trouble.

 

He’s a good player. And he’s still in his prime, and LH.

How are we in trouble by targeting high-end talent? As has been mentioned repeatedly, we can go get a player like Moustakas if we miss out on those top guys when said player is needed. We don’t have to settle right now. I think some of you guys are so used to the old way of doing things that you honestly think Moose as good as it gets.

 

There are four elite 3B options in Machado, Donaldson, Arenado, & Rendon hitting free agency over the next two years. We will have as much financial flexibility as anyone to add one of these guys. While I think Machado is a long-shot because of the Yankees, I think any of the other three are realistic possibilities. And if we really want to win a World Series, we should be doing everything in our power to add a star, 5+ WAR player at 3B (our biggest area of weakness) rather settle for a 2 to 3 WAR guy that will cost us $12M to $16M in wasted season plus a pick.

[Chicago White Sox]

They need a respectable left handed bat, more than they need a top 5 player.

This is absolutely mind-boggling to me. You’d actually pass a significantly better player because of a desire to have a more balance lineup in terms of handedness. You realize that Machado & Donaldson are just as good against RHP (if not better) than Moustakas is right? But they bring much overall ability to the table. Regardless, focusing on building the most perfectly balanced lineup this early into a rebuild is a dangerous game. The goal first & foremost should be talent accumulation (preferably impact talent) and worrying about it all fits together later on.

[caulfield12]

How are we in trouble by targeting high-end talent? As has been mentioned repeatedly, we can go get a player like Moustakas if we miss out on those top guys when said player is needed. We don’t have to settle right now. I think some of you guys are so used to the old way of doing things that you honestly think Moose as good as it gets.

 

There are four elite 3B options in Machado, Donaldson, Arenado, & Rendon hitting free agency over the next two years. We will have as much financial flexibility as anyone to add one of these guys. While I think Machado is a long-shot because of the Yankees, I think any of the other three are realistic possibilities. And if we really want to win a World Series, we should be doing everything in our power to add a star, 5+ WAR player at 3B (our biggest area of weakness) rather settle for a 2 to 3 WAR guy that will cost us $12M to $16M in wasted season plus a pick.

 

We’ll see.

 

Odds are 50/50 that Rendon or Arenado stay put...so that quickly cuts the realistic list back down to Donaldson and one of those two.

 

Do the Sox have the will to win a bidding war in the $150+ million range?

 

 

We can argue if Moustakas is a 2-3 or 3-4. His 2015 and 2016 extrapolated/abbreviated numbers would argue the latter. If he was 32, I wouldn’t be arguing for him.

 

I’d also argue the odds are greater for Moustakas than Avi Garcia in 2018, for example...especially Moustakas playing in a hitter friendly park for the first time.

 

Edited February 23, 2018 by caulfield12

[Lillian]

This is absolutely mind-boggling to me. You’d actually pass a significantly better player because of a desire to have a more balance lineup in terms of handedness. You realize that Machado & Donaldson are just as good against RHP (if not better) than Moustakas is right? But they bring much overall ability to the table. Regardless, focusing on building the most perfectly balanced lineup this early into a rebuild is a dangerous game. The goal first & foremost should be talent accumulation (preferably impact talent) and worrying about it all fits together later on.

 

Donaldson will be too old. Machado and Arenado will be too expensive. Sure, if ownership wants to spend the money, I'm certainly not going to complain and of course, they are better players, than Moustakas. However, that doesn't seem realistic, to me. Moreover, it would be nice to extend some of the young stars, rather than have to let a bunch of them go, when they hit free agency. They might not have that financial flexibility, if they spend $35 Million per year on a third baseman. Why is that "mind-boggling"? I do agree that giving up the draft pick is a big negative.

Edited February 23, 2018 by Lillian

[Chicago White Sox]

We’ll see.

 

Odds are 50/50 that Rendon or Arenado stay put...so that quickly cuts the realistic list back down to Donaldson and one of those two.

 

Do the Sox have the will to win a bidding war in the $150+ million range?

 

 

We can argue if Moustakas is a 2-3 or 3-4. His 2015 and 2016 extrapolated/abbreviated numbers would argue the latter. If he was 32, I wouldn’t be arguing for him.

 

I’d also argue the odds are greater for Moustakas than Avi Garcia in 2018, for example...especially Moustakas playing in a hitter friendly park for the first time.

Where the hell do you come up with these odds? I have never seen a poster throw out random probabilites more than you. Right now, all four of those guys are within two years of free agency. Odds are they will wait it out for a big payday if they haven’t settled already by this point. Anything can happen, but I’d wager none of these guys resign with their current clubs prior to testing the market.

 

And yes, the Sox with a $50M payroll will have TWTW a bidding war in the $150M. For f***s same, they just spent $50M on an amateur free agent. I’m certain they plan on going to the $300M+ range for Machado. Probably won’t be enough to outbid the Yankees, but once they’re out of the picture we’re as dangerous as anyone. People really need to accept the fact that the Sox are going to spend like crazy over the next two years assuming no stumbling blocks with the rebuild and that the old way of doing things will no longer be relevant.

[Dick Allen]

Where the hell do you come up with these odds? I have never seen a poster throw out random probabilites more than you. Right now, all four of those guys are within two years of free agency. Odds are they will wait it out for a big payday if they haven’t settled already by this point. Anything can happen, but I’d wager none of these guys resign with their current clubs prior to testing the market.

 

And yes, the Sox with a $50M payroll will have TWTW a bidding war in the $150M. For f***s same, they just spent $50M on an amateur free agent. I’m certain they plan on going to the $300M+ range for Machado. Probably won’t be enough to outbid the Yankees, but once they’re out of the picture we’re as dangerous as anyone. People really need to accept the fact that the Sox are going to spend like crazy over the next two years assuming no stumbling blocks with the rebuild and that the old way of doing things will no longer be relevant.

They say things will be different and I believe them, but I will believe they will sign one of these guys when they actually sign him. No offense to anyone.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Where the hell do you come up with these odds? I have never seen a poster throw out random probabilites more than you. Right now, all four of those guys are within two years of free agency. Odds are they will wait it out for a big payday if they haven’t settled already by this point. Anything can happen, but I’d wager none of these guys resign with their current clubs prior to testing the market.

 

And yes, the Sox with a $50M payroll will have TWTW a bidding war in the $150M. For f***s same, they just spent $50M on an amateur free agent. I’m certain they plan on going to the $300M+ range for Machado. Probably won’t be enough to outbid the Yankees, but once they’re out of the picture we’re as dangerous as anyone. People really need to accept the fact that the Sox are going to spend like crazy over the next two years assuming no stumbling blocks with the rebuild and that the old way of doing things will no longer be relevant.

I just don’t understand why you are so confident the Sox will be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player. What about their past ownership decisions regarding payroll and FA signings suggests that they will be in play for these top tier guys? Am I missing something here?

[Chicago White Sox]

Donaldson will be too old. Machado and Arenado will be too expensive. Sure, if ownership wants to spend the money, I'm certainly not going to complain and of course, they are better players, than Moustakas. However, that doesn't seem realistic, to me. Moreover, it would be nice to extend some of the young stars, rather than have to let a bunch of them go, when they hit free agency. They might not have that financial flexibility, if they spend $35 Million per year on a third baseman. Why is that "mind-boggling"? I do agree that giving up the draft pick is a big negative.

Saying we’re better off with a left-handed bat over a top 5 player is mind-boggling. That’s basically like trading someone a $20 bill for four quarters because a vending machine doesn’t take big bills. If you’re saying we can’t afford that star player that’s a completely different story, although I don’t know you’d come to that conclusion.

 

Let me ask you this, do you think a $50M payroll is realistic? Because we could extend Abreu and have the bulk of our core in place for that much or less. We are going to have a ton of money to play with over the next few years. These young players you mention won’t get expensive for another four to six years. What are we going to spend all this money on? Assuming the rebuild goes well, we may only have a handful of holes. Let’s spend our money on impact players and settle for some dude cause he simply plugs a hole.

 

As for extending for our young stars, that shouldn’t even be a consideration at this point time. Why are we concerned about something six to eight years from now? We should do everything we can to maximize our 2019 to 2024 window. The reality is a lot of these guys are going to want to test the market. Once a guy like Moncada gets there, you better be prepared to give him a Machado level contract or he’s as good as gone. And you just said you don’t want to give Machado that contract right now despite having tons of financial flexibility. The good news is if were somehow able to add Machado, he’d most definitely have an opt-out after a few years and would likely exercise it, meaning his downside years wouldn’t probably not impact us anyways.

[Chicago White Sox]

They say things will be different and I believe them, but I will believe they will sign one of these guys when they actually sign him. No offense to anyone.

As soon as they signed Robert for $50M and went into the penalty box I knew things would be different. I can understand being cautiously optimistic here, but the team literally has no financial commitments going forward and will have to spend their cash on something. A big free signing that signals the end of the rebuild and can be used to hype up interest in the team is no doubt the plan IMO.

[Chicago White Sox]

I just don’t understand why you are so confident the Sox will be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player. What about their past ownership decisions regarding payroll and FA signings suggests that they will be in play for these top tier guys? Am I missing something here?

When have they ever had this much payroll flexibility along with such a promising young core? I was born in 1984 and I don’t recall many times. But the Sox have gone after big fish before. They were rumored to offer ARod a 10/$190M years ago. They went after Tanaka. I’m sure they’ve gone after other guys we don’t know about. I think they finally realize that going after B free agents isn’t a productive strategy. You’re better off signing high end talent with greater margin for error than the LaRoche’s of the world who can quciklg become replacement level. I also think Reinsdorf’s age plays a factor now. The reality is he may not have a lot of time left on this earth and if he wants one last championship he knows he needs to be aggressive.

Edited February 23, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Chicago White Sox]

And just to add further reason why settling for Moustakas is a bad idea. Look at the Yankees & Astros’ lineups the next few years. The Yankees could have a lineup built around Judge, Stanton, Machado, & Sanchez plus potential young stars in Torres, Florial, etc. The Astros have Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Springer, a bunch of good complimentary players plus a potential future star in Tucker. These two teams are going to be stacked and we have to find a way to catch up. Moose just doesn’t move the needle enough. We really have to aim higher.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

When have they ever had this much payroll flexibility along with such a promising young core? I was born in 1984 and I don’t recall many times. But the Sox have gone after big fish before. They were rumored to offer ARod a 10/$190M years ago. They went after Tanaka. I’m sure they’ve gone after other guys we don’t know about. I think they finally realize that going after B free agents isn’t a productive strategy. You’re better off signing high end talent with greater margin for error than the LaRoche’s of the world who can quciklg become replacement level. I also think Reinsdorf’s age plays a factor now. The reality is he may not have a lot of time left on this earth and if he wants one last championship he knows he needs to be aggressive.

As the roster is currently constructed, they are likely in line for a payroll of around $60M in 2019. Yes, they lose Shields, Soria and Gonzalez but that is partially offset by pay raises for guys like Abreu, Garcia, Rodon, etc. Let’s say they sign a guy like Machado. Now you’re at a payroll of around $95M but you still have a number of holes to fill. Not every one of these prospects is going to be an above average regular and then you also have to consider that guys get hurt. So you could still be looking for a SP, RP, DH, and CF at a minimum even after signing Machado. Now what’s the cost to fill these holes in the FA market with above average regulars? Maybe another $40-50M? Your minuscule payroll is now in the $135-145M range. How high are the Sox willing to go in team payroll? If the answer is $140M+ then sure maybe they are players for one top tier guy but if they aren’t I don’t see how they’d be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player.

 

Edit: fuzzy math corrected

Edited February 23, 2018 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[wrathofhahn]

We’ll see.

 

Odds are 50/50 that Rendon or Arenado stay put...so that quickly cuts the realistic list back down to Donaldson and one of those two.

 

Do the Sox have the will to win a bidding war in the $150+ million range?

 

 

We can argue if Moustakas is a 2-3 or 3-4. His 2015 and 2016 extrapolated/abbreviated numbers would argue the latter. If he was 32, I wouldn’t be arguing for him.

 

I’d also argue the odds are greater for Moustakas than Avi Garcia in 2018, for example...especially Moustakas playing in a hitter friendly park for the first time.

 

The problem with Moose is he doesn't walk and his all or nothing approach generates a ton of weak contact. Take a look at his batted ball data between 16-18% of the balls put into play are infield popups. 21% of the contact of balls put in play was classified as soft last season. 32% was classified as hard contact.

 

Compare that BB data with Abreu who also doesn't walk. 7.1% of his batted balls were IFB. 16% of his the balls he put into play were classified as with soft contact. 41% hard contact.

 

That isn't something a ballpark is going to fix. He's also a terrible baserunner purely a station to station guy. He did hit better away from kaufman last season but his career splits (non SSS) are pretty equal.

 

I dunno five years of Moose would scare me to death not only because of you are taking someone wholly reliant on his bat speed and BA to generate value (he doesn't) and hoping the bottom doesn't fall out when he gets older but also I don't like committing more then three years to 2 WAR-ish players. It only brings trouble when it comes to decline (remember players over 30 decline by average 0.5 WAR a year)

[Chicago White Sox]

As the roster is currently constructed, they are likely in line for a payroll of around $60M in 2019. Yes, they lose Shields, Soria and Gonzalez but that is partially offset by pay raises for guys like Abreu, Garcia, Rodon, etc. Let’s say they sign a guy like Machado. Now you’re at a payroll of around $85M but you still have a number of holes to fill. Not every one of these prospects is going to be an above average regular and then you also have to consider that guys get hurt. So you could still be looking for a SP, RP, DH, and CF at a minimum even after signing Machado. Now what’s the cost to fill these holes in the FA market with above average regulars? Maybe another $40-50M? Your minuscule payroll is now in the $125-135M range. How high are the Sox willing to go in team payroll? If the answer is $140M+ then sure maybe they are players for one top tier guy but if they aren’t I don’t see how they’d be willing to spend that kind of money on a single player.

The Sox went up to a $128M payroll back in 2011. They will most certainly get back up to that level with all the new revenue streams in place. I feel like a $150M or so payroll in a few years is fairly realistic.

 

As for holes, I seriously doubt they add a SP for big money. Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez will all gets shots at proving whether or not they are major league caliber starters. We still have Rodon to fill a spot. Hansen could be up by the end of this year. Dunning isn’t too far off. Plus potential back-end guys like Stephens, Adams, & Guerrero will ready and waiting for a shot at a spot. I think they’ll stick with what they have internally for the rotation.

 

CF will likely be one of internal guys (Leury, Tilson, Engel, Cordell) or a free agent on a short-term deal. They will not want to block Robert. We should be able to find a DH if needed at a reasonable rate. Yes, I definitely see us adding one impact reliever and that could be fairly pricey. But at this point in time (I know it’s stilll early), I’m not seeing all these holes that will have to be plugged long-term by expansive free agents. And we can always use some of our prospect depth to acquire more cost-controlled players to fill some gaps if necessary.

[caulfield12]

The Sox went up to a $128M payroll back in 2011. They will most certainly get back up to that level with all the new revenue streams in place. I feel like a $150M or so payroll in a few years is fairly realistic.

 

As for holes, I seriously doubt they add a SP for big money. Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez will all gets shots at proving whether or not they are major league caliber starters. We still have Rodon to fill a spot. Hansen could be up by the end of this year. Dunning isn’t too far off. Plus potential back-end guys like Stephens, Adams, & Guerrero will ready and waiting for a shot at a spot. I think they’ll stick with what they have internally for the rotation.

 

CF will likely be one of internal guys (Leury, Tilson, Engel, Cordell) or a free agent on a short-term deal. They will not want to block Robert. We should be able to find a DH if needed at a reasonable rate. Yes, I definitely see us adding one impact reliever and that could be fairly pricey. But at this point in time (I know it’s stilll early), I’m not seeing all these holes that will have to be plugged long-term by expansive free agents. And we can always use some of our prospect depth to acquire more cost-controlled players to fill some gaps if necessary.

 

A lot depends on Anderson and Rodon.

 

If Moncada, Jimenez and Robert each fulfilled their potential, then we’re in really good shape.

 

We still have concerns about catcher and 3B, and aren’t sure what to do with Abreu and Garcia...extending either will be another chunk of change, with Abreu maybe $65 million for three years.

 

Realistically, going forward they have to look at 3b, catcher, an elite closer and a veteran #2 starting pitcher, because the odds of Giolito, Lopez, Kopech and Fulmer/Dunning all holding up as reliable starters isn’t that high.

 

Sure, maybe we get that closer internally (Cease?)...maybe Collins develops as predicted when we drafted him, but a LOT of things have to go right to not have 3-4 critical roster issues heading into 2020.

 

 

The Nats are likely to lose Harper, they will put everything they’ve got into retaining Rendon...

Edited February 23, 2018 by caulfield12