Moustakas linked to Sox again

[wrathofhahn]

A lot depends on Anderson and Rodon.

 

If Moncada, Jimenez and Robert each fulfilled their potential, then we’re in really good shape.

 

We still have concerns about catcher and 3B, and aren’t sure what to do with Abreu and Garcia...extending either will be another chunk of change, with Abreu maybe $65 million for three years.

 

Realistically, going forward they have to look at 3b, catcher, an elite closer and a veteran #2 starting pitcher, because the odds of Giolito, Lopez, Kopech and Fulmer/Dunning all holding up as reliable starters isn’t that high.

 

Sure, maybe we get that closer internally (Cease?)...maybe Collins develops as predicted when we drafted him, but a LOT of things have to go right to not have 3-4 critical roster issues heading into 2020.

 

 

The Nats are likely to lose Harper, they will put everything they’ve got into retaining Rendon...

 

The Nats can do that as much as they want but Rendon is boras guy so he'll test fa

[Chicago White Sox]

A lot depends on Anderson and Rodon.

 

If Moncada, Jimenez and Robert each fulfilled their potential, then we’re in really good shape.

 

We still have concerns about catcher and 3B, and aren’t sure what to do with Abreu and Garcia...extending either will be another chunk of change, with Abreu maybe $65 million for three years.

 

Realistically, going forward they have to look at 3b, catcher, an elite closer and a veteran #2 starting pitcher, because the odds of Giolito, Lopez, Kopech and Fulmer/Dunning all holding up as reliable starters isn’t that high.

 

Sure, maybe we get that closer internally (Cease?)...maybe Collins develops as predicted when we drafted him, but a LOT of things have to go right to not have 3-4 critical roster issues heading into 2020.

 

 

The Nats are likely to lose Harper, they will put everything they’ve got into retaining Rendon...

We have a veteran catcher in Castillo controllable through 2020 along with a guy whose generally considered a top 10 catching prospect in Collins and a very interesting sleeper in Zavala. Right now I feel pretty good about our catching depth and we’ll know more about Collins by next offseason.

 

Regardless, we can afford Machado and still address the other two or three critical roster issues. There should be enough to fill a couple holes via free agnecy and probably another one via trade. Machado only becomes an issue IMO if we have like six or seven key holes and really spread ourselves thin. For now I’m optimistic that won’t happen.

[Whisox05]

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-bas...y-for-comeback/

 

"Mike Moustakas could emerge as a possibility, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported. The White Sox have as many prospects as any AL team but don’t have a big one at third base. While this would be a year before any expected push for a pennant, it may represent a nice opportunity for the ChiSox. The third base market hasn’t developed as expected, and Moustakas may not get what he originally sought. There are plenty of one-year opportunities for him, but a one-year deal would put him back on the market with Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado."

[greg775]

We have a veteran catcher in Castillo controllable through 2020 along with a guy whose generally considered a top 10 catching prospect in Collins and a very interesting sleeper in Zavala. Right now I feel pretty good about our catching depth and we’ll know more about Collins by next offseason.

 

Regardless, we can afford Machado and still address the other two or three critical roster issues. There should be enough to fill a couple holes via free agnecy and probably another one via trade. Machado only becomes an issue IMO if we have like six or seven key holes and really spread ourselves thin. For now I’m optimistic that won’t happen.

Guys, everything printed says Machado loves NY and will be a Yankee. I think you should forget about him. Hence Moustakas. Sox can get him for 4 years 60 million I bet. 15 million a year. Why not? We might improve a lot even this year cause Davidson could move to DH with Mous at 3B. Our infield actually would be very good as long as Mous is in shape. Before advanced stats went crazy, most folks would suggest Mous had a great great season last year. He has WS experience. I don't see the harm. I won't be doing handstands if we sign him but again, why not? Machado is not coming to the White Sox, geez. There's been no hint of that.

[Sleepy Harold]

Guys, everything printed says Machado loves NY and will be a Yankee. I think you should forget about him. Hence Moustakas. Sox can get him for 4 years 60 million I bet. 15 million a year. Why not? We might improve a lot even this year cause Davidson could move to DH with Mous at 3B. Our infield actually would be very good as long as Mous is in shape. Before advanced stats went crazy, most folks would suggest Mous had a great great season last year. He has WS experience. I don't see the harm. I won't be doing handstands if we sign him but again, why not? Machado is not coming to the White Sox, geez. There's been no hint of that.

If it's all over print why even bother to try? That's a bad mindset to have. The Sox shouldn't "settle" for Mous now before even making an attempt/effort at one of the big guys in the coming off-season(s). That falls in line with the old way of thinking. Let the young guys play this year, see how they progress, evaluate where it's looking like we'll be weak, and move forward. Mous would be an improvement at 3B right now no doubt. I just don't understand the mindset of turning down the opportunity to sign a potential difference-making all around talent for a guy, while still better than average, just is nowhere near the level of a Machado/Arenado, even Donaldson on the back 9 of his career.

 

Remain patient, let it play out with what we have this season. No need to rush into something, especially considering the draft implications it would have. It'd be different if the Sox were picking in the 20s of every round this year. As we all know, that's not the case. Bowing out of a mid low to mid 40s pick wouldn't be very smart. It's still important to build as much high quality talent & depth as we can at this point so when the time is right that depth can be used to fill necessary holes. Patience you must have, my young Padawan!

Edited February 23, 2018 by Sleepy Harold

[Blackout Friday]

The Nats can do that as much as they want but Rendon is boras guy so he'll test fa

They managed to get Stras to sign an extension, another Boras guy. It’s likely he’ll test free agency, but hardly a guarantee.

[caulfield12]

2020 Chicago White Sox

 

$35 million Machado/Arenado 3B

$4 million Tim Anderson SS

Yoan Moncada 2B

$21 million Jose Abreu 1B

Burger DH

Jimenez/Robert/??? ($13-15 million Avi Garcia)

Collins C

 

$15 million Elite closer

 

Rodon

Kopech

Giolito

Hansen

Dunning/López

 

 

That puts you at $75 million for just four players.

 

(Obvious hope is to develop our own closer, not need to add a veteran starter...quite a few will argue against keeping Abreu at that point for that price. I suppose that you could argue for $70 million and extend Avi Garcia instead.)

 

[OmarComing25]

I’m not really that worried about the payroll. For much of the previous decade we were consistently in the top 10 for payroll, and while I don’t think we’ll be a top 5 payroll again like we were in the past a few times, top 10ish should be reasonable, and at the very least we should be top half. The 15th highest payroll last year was $140 million (10th was $163 million), in 2019/2020 a $150 million payroll will probably be below average, and there’s no reason we couldn’t go that high.

[bmags]

I’m not really that worried about the payroll. For much of the previous decade we were consistently in the top 10 for payroll, and while I don’t think we’ll be a top 5 payroll again like we were in the past a few times, top 10ish should be reasonable, and at the very least we should be top half. The 15th highest payroll last year was $140 million (10th was $163 million), in 2019/2020 a $150 million payroll will probably be below average, and there’s no reason we couldn’t go that high.

 

One thing I’d love is for the Sox, who clearly are trying for this, nail down a lockdown bullpen with mostly internal candidates. Bullpen help expensive and longer term deals now, avoiding this contracts make splurging on a position player or two easier to handle.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

The Sox went up to a $128M payroll back in 2011. They will most certainly get back up to that level with all the new revenue streams in place. I feel like a $150M or so payroll in a few years is fairly realistic.

 

As for holes, I seriously doubt they add a SP for big money. Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez will all gets shots at proving whether or not they are major league caliber starters. We still have Rodon to fill a spot. Hansen could be up by the end of this year. Dunning isn’t too far off. Plus potential back-end guys like Stephens, Adams, & Guerrero will ready and waiting for a shot at a spot. I think they’ll stick with what they have internally for the rotation.

 

CF will likely be one of internal guys (Leury, Tilson, Engel, Cordell) or a free agent on a short-term deal. They will not want to block Robert. We should be able to find a DH if needed at a reasonable rate. Yes, I definitely see us adding one impact reliever and that could be fairly pricey. But at this point in time (I know it’s stilll early), I’m not seeing all these holes that will have to be plugged long-term by expansive free agents. And we can always use some of our prospect depth to acquire more cost-controlled players to fill some gaps if necessary.

But again you are assuming that most/all holes will be filled by prospects. When has this ever be done? Even the Cubs and Astros over the last few years have had to bring in high priced vets to shore up their roster. Why would the Sox be any different? Take a look at the Astros for example. Check their payroll in 2016 (similar to what I would expect from the Sox next year) and how quickly it ballooned by 2017/2018. And they don’t have a single player making anywhere near the cost of a guy like Machado.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Per Spotrac, take a look at how quickly the Astros’ active payroll increased:

 

2015: $65M

2016: $75M

2017: $132.5M

2018: $150M right now but will increase with any in-season additions as well as guys on pre-arb Contracts (e.g. Bregman)

 

Their most expensive player in 2017 was Carlos Beltran ($16M) and in 2018 is Justin Verlander ($20M - their portion of his salary). So what does the above look like if you bring in a $33-35M AAV guy like Machado? You can see how quickly team payroll can escalate even when starting at a minuscule number with a team built around young guys.

[Chicago White Sox]

Guys, everything printed says Machado loves NY and will be a Yankee. I think you should forget about him. Hence Moustakas. Sox can get him for 4 years 60 million I bet. 15 million a year. Why not? We might improve a lot even this year cause Davidson could move to DH with Mous at 3B. Our infield actually would be very good as long as Mous is in shape. Before advanced stats went crazy, most folks would suggest Mous had a great great season last year. He has WS experience. I don't see the harm. I won't be doing handstands if we sign him but again, why not? Machado is not coming to the White Sox, geez. There's been no hint of that.

Just to point this out since it doesn’t come up enough, but giving Moustakas a 4/$60M deal is effectively giving him a $20M AAV since next year doesn’t matter. Factor in losing the #45 pick & $2M in bonus pool and does they really seem like a steal to you guys? And it’s Sanchez who loses playing not Davidson, which is another negative.

[Chicago White Sox]

If it's all over print why even bother to try? That's a bad mindset to have. The Sox shouldn't "settle" for Mous now before even making an attempt/effort at one of the big guys in the coming off-season(s). That falls in line with the old way of thinking. Let the young guys play this year, see how they progress, evaluate where it's looking like we'll be weak, and move forward. Mous would be an improvement at 3B right now no doubt. I just don't understand the mindset of turning down the opportunity to sign a potential difference-making all around talent for a guy, while still better than average, just is nowhere near the level of a Machado/Arenado, even Donaldson on the back 9 of his career.

 

Remain patient, let it play out with what we have this season. No need to rush into something, especially considering the draft implications it would have. It'd be different if the Sox were picking in the 20s of every round this year. As we all know, that's not the case. Bowing out of a mid low to mid 40s pick wouldn't be very smart. It's still important to build as much high quality talent & depth as we can at this point so when the time is right that depth can be used to fill necessary holes. Patience you must have, my young Padawan!

Great post.

[GreenSox]

Moustakas is a hole-plugger. A good hole-plugger, but he's not a cornerstone player. The problem is, we don't know where the holes will be in a year or 2. We can assume it won't be corner OF or 2B. We have a good amount of pitching in the pipeline. But after that?

We have 2 catchers in the org, both of whom are a long way away.

We don't have much in CF. I thought L. Garcia showed promise, but even if he fully develops, what exactly do we have? An average CF or slightly above. And the Sox have a couple of others at about that level.

Anderson should improve at SS - but if he does, we're probably looking at Alexei. Not exactly a Correa.

So, really, even if some of the guys develop, they will be slightly above average players....we already have our Moustakas'. Sure one non-heralded prospect could really pop - we'll see. But I'm more confident in 2 or 3 of the Delmonico's/Leurys popping into rosterable players, not stars.

 

The Astros went into last year with overt weak-spots at 1B, LF and starting pitching. It would have also been RF, but they signed Reddick. So what happened? 33 year old e[edit] Gurriel has a great year. Marwin Gonzalez, barely a .700 OPS hitter over several years, balloons to .900 OPS. Marisnick, who couldn't hit .700 OPS, exceeds .800 OPS as a 4th outfielder. 33 year old Charlie Morton has a career year and they trade for Verlander. Career years are common in WS winners.

But regardless, the Astros were solid at most positions. Then filled their holes.

Edited February 23, 2018 by GreenSox

[Chicago White Sox]

One thing I’d love is for the Sox, who clearly are trying for this, nail down a lockdown bullpen with mostly internal candidates. Bullpen help expensive and longer term deals now, avoiding this contracts make splurging on a position player or two easier to handle.

I personally hope we add one impact reliever and then go young with the rest of the pen. I think we have the pieces to accomplish that. Let’s say we sign Andrew Miller for example sake. We could be looking at a 2020 pen something like this:

 

CL: Burdi

SU: Miller

SU: Cease

MR: Fulmer

MR: Bummer/Fry/Clarkin

MR: Vierira/Hamilton/Burr

LR: Stephens/Adams/Guerrero

 

And I’m sure there are other potential pen guys I’m missing. But overall I feel pretty good about the depth we have in place on the pitching side and agree that will allow us to splurge on the positional side.

[caulfield12]

Moustakas is a hole-plugger. A good hole-plugger, but he's not a cornerstone player. The problem is, we don't know where the holes will be in a year or 2. We can assume it won't be corner OF or 2B. We have a good amount of pitching in the pipeline. But after that?

We have 2 catchers in the org, both of whom are a long way away.

We don't have much in CF. I thought L. Garcia showed promise, but even if he fully develops, what exactly do we have? An average CF or slightly above. And the Sox have a couple of others at about that level.

Anderson should improve at SS - but if he does, we're probably looking at Alexei. Not exactly a Correa.

So, really, even if some of the guys develop, they will be slightly above average players....we already have our Moustakas'. Sure one non-heralded prospect could really pop - we'll see. But I'm more confident in 2 or 3 of the Delmonico's/Leurys popping into rosterable players, not stars.

 

The Astros went into last year with overt weak-spots at 1B, LF and starting pitching. It would have also been RF, but they signed Reddick. So what happened? 33 year old Castillo has a great year. Marwin Gonzalez, barely a .700 OPS hitter over several years, balloons to .900 OPS. Marisnick, who couldn't hit .700 OPS, exceeds .800 OPS as a 4th outfielder. 33 year old Charlie Morton has a career year and they trade for Verlander. Career years are common in WS winners.

But regardless, the Astros were solid at most positions. Then filled their holes.

 

Castillo?

 

The real question is how much does having a playoff-competitive team for most of the 2019 season leverage the broadcasting rights deal to allow the Sox to absorb a megacontract?

 

What comes first, the chicken or the egg? How much would signing Harper or Machado push up their media deals?

 

Or do JR and son prefer to wait...deciding how much to allocate depending on how much rights increase? (Also taking into consideration the $50 million from BAM Tech merger.)

 

The old saying, you have to spend money to make money...is our philosophy to have three players like Robert/Avi/Abreu for roughly the price of one Donaldson in total contract dollars, to “spread the risk” so to speak? To sign three to five youngsters like Robert/Adolfo or one megacontract?

 

2019...in that scenario, for the White Sox, is 2013 for the Royals and 2015 for the Cubs/Astros, with everything pushed ahead of schedule by at least half a season.

 

How hard will that timetable be to resist for a franchise hitting ten years without a playoff appearance?

 

What happens if Jimenez, Moncada, Kopech and Robert fail to meet expectations or get hurt in 2018/19 (see Rodon) and that team disappoints? That’s the worst-case scenario, certainly, with Balta’s bright predictions being the opposite.

Edited February 23, 2018 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

I personally hope we add one impact reliever and then go young with the rest of the pen. I think we have the pieces to accomplish that. Let’s say we sign Andrew Miller for example sake. We could be looking at a 2020 pen something like this:

 

CL: Burdi

SU: Miller

SU: Cease

MR: Fulmer

MR: Bummer/Fry/Clarkin

MR: Vierira/Hamilton/Burr

LR: Stephens/Adams/Guerrero

 

And I’m sure there are other potential pen guys I’m missing. But overall I feel pretty good about the depth we have in place on the pitching side and agree that will allow us to splurge on the positional side.

You are way too optimistic about White Sox prospects.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Moustakas is a hole-plugger. A good hole-plugger, but he's not a cornerstone player. The problem is, we don't know where the holes will be in a year or 2. We can assume it won't be corner OF or 2B. We have a good amount of pitching in the pipeline. But after that?

We have 2 catchers in the org, both of whom are a long way away.

We don't have much in CF. I thought L. Garcia showed promise, but even if he fully develops, what exactly do we have? An average CF or slightly above. And the Sox have a couple of others at about that level.

Anderson should improve at SS - but if he does, we're probably looking at Alexei. Not exactly a Correa.

So, really, even if some of the guys develop, they will be slightly above average players....we already have our Moustakas'. Sure one non-heralded prospect could really pop - we'll see. But I'm more confident in 2 or 3 of the Delmonico's/Leurys popping into rosterable players, not stars.

 

The Astros went into last year with overt weak-spots at 1B, LF and starting pitching. It would have also been RF, but they signed Reddick. So what happened? 33 year old Castillo has a great year. Marwin Gonzalez, barely a .700 OPS hitter over several years, balloons to .900 OPS. Marisnick, who couldn't hit .700 OPS, exceeds .800 OPS as a 4th outfielder. 33 year old Charlie Morton has a career year and they trade for Verlander. Career years are common in WS winners.

But regardless, the Astros were solid at most positions. Then filled their holes.

That was kind of the point of my previous posts. Even a team like Houston that was rich with young talent at the major league level AND also boosted a top farm system still dipped into the FA market and completed multiple significant trades for veteran players to round out their roster. They don’t win the WS without those moves. Without question those moves put them over the top, particularly the Verlander acquisition. To think the Sox won’t have multiple key positions to fill heading into the 2020 season is a fantasy even if 3/4 of the prospects hit. Is it realistic for the Sox to spend close to $35M on a single player given their likely payroll constraints while also filling multiple holes with vets? Sure seems like a pipe dream.

[LittleHurt05]

The Sox went up to a $128M payroll back in 2011. They will most certainly get back up to that level with all the new revenue streams in place. I feel like a $150M or so payroll in a few years is fairly realistic.

 

As for holes, I seriously doubt they add a SP for big money. Kopech, Giolito, & Lopez will all gets shots at proving whether or not they are major league caliber starters. We still have Rodon to fill a spot. Hansen could be up by the end of this year. Dunning isn’t too far off. Plus potential back-end guys like Stephens, Adams, & Guerrero will ready and waiting for a shot at a spot. I think they’ll stick with what they have internally for the rotation.

 

CF will likely be one of internal guys (Leury, Tilson, Engel, Cordell) or a free agent on a short-term deal. They will not want to block Robert. We should be able to find a DH if needed at a reasonable rate. Yes, I definitely see us adding one impact reliever and that could be fairly pricey. But at this point in time (I know it’s stilll early), I’m not seeing all these holes that will have to be plugged long-term by expansive free agents. And we can always use some of our prospect depth to acquire more cost-controlled players to fill some gaps if necessary.

 

IMO it's almost a guarantee that at least one SP on the next Sox playoff team will have a $10million+ salary and is not in the organization right now. Either by free agency or trade. That's how these things work. The depth looks great on paper, but guys struggle, guys get hurt, or you make trades to help the ML team win right now (theoretically in 2 years). It's fun to put together the 2020 roster with the farm system in place, but there are always changes from outside.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

You are way too optimistic about White Sox prospects.

Well not just that, pitchers also have a tendency to get hurt so you always need far more depth than you expect. Especially the hard throwers like Burdi, Cease, etc.

[Chicago White Sox]

But again you are assuming that most/all holes will be filled by prospects. When has this ever be done? Even the Cubs and Astros over the last few years have had to bring in high priced vets to shore up their roster. Why would the Sox be any different? Take a look at the Astros for example. Check their payroll in 2016 (similar to what I would expect from the Sox next year) and how quickly it ballooned by 2017/2018. And they don’t have a single player making anywhere near the cost of a guy like Machado.

I am? My plan for the offense would be to extend Abreu, sign Machado for 3B, & sign a short-term place holder for LF or DH. That would be three veterans along Anderson. The prospects would include the 2016 #1 overall prospect at 2B, a 2017 top 5 overall prospect in RF, & a guy we just spent $50M on in CF. Those aren’t exactly high risk prospects and are very similar in caliber to the guys the Cubs & Astros relied on to form their core. The other LF/DH spot would hopefully be Nicky or another internal option (Cordell, Tilson, etc). Catcher is probably the biggest risk, but we should know more about Collins before we have to execute this plan. If necessary, I’d trade some prospect depth to fill one of those last two spots with an established player.

 

Yes, I’m relying on a lot of prospects on the pitching side, but we should know more about Kopech, Giolito & Lopez after this season. Rodon will get a spot. I’d like to add a veteran impact reliever to anchor that group. Generally speaking, I think we have much more pitching depth than the Cubs & Astros and it’s timed much better in terms of two major waves hitting right on top of each other. It’s a numbers game and I think we have them.

[Chicago White Sox]

You are way too optimistic about White Sox prospects.

I just listed twelve guys for six relief roles and acknowledged there are other major league quality arms I’m ignoring. I fail to see how I’m being optimistic here. Burdi & Cease project as impact relievers. Filling out the rest is simply a numbers game.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I am? My plan for the offense would be to extend Abreu, sign Machado for 3B, & sign a short-term place holder for LF or DH. That would be three veterans along Anderson. The prospects would include the 2016 #1 overall prospect at 2B, a 2017 top 5 overall prospect in RF, & a guy we just spent $50M on in CF. Those aren’t exactly high risk prospects and are very similar in caliber to the guys the Cubs & Astros relied on to form their core. The other LF/DH spot would hopefully be Nicky or another internal option (Cordell, Tilson, etc). Catcher is probably the biggest risk, but we should know more about Collins before we have to execute this plan. If necessary, I’d trade some prospect depth to fill one of those last two spots with an established player.

 

Yes, I’m relying on a lot of prospects on the pitching side, but we should know more about Kopech, Giolito & Lopez after this season. Rodon will get a spot. I’d like to add a veteran impact reliever to anchor that group. Generally speaking, I think we have much more pitching depth than the Cubs & Astros and it’s timed much better in terms of two major waves hitting right on top of each other. It’s a numbers game and I think we have them.

I hope you’re right, I really do. But I’m skeptical, especially on the pitching side. Can never have enough pitching.

[caulfield12]

So many moving pieces...Rutherford, Collins/Zavala, Cease, Burdi, Burger, Adolfo, Dunning...need to not flame out, or at least hit expectations.

 

With the Cubs, it is now an incredible young catcher, Happ and Hendricks offsetting Soler, Schwarber and Zobrist/Heyward (obviously, the last two contributed something in 2016). But even the Cubs are playing with fire on the bullpen side of the equation, as well as the health of Lester/Darvish.

 

 

We all know that only Buehrle and Garland came out of that incredible BA #1 1999-2000 pitching group...and that the real keys were nearly perfect trades for Garcia and Contreras to put them over the top.

Edited February 23, 2018 by caulfield12

[wrathofhahn]

They managed to get Stras to sign an extension, another Boras guy. It’s likely he’ll test free agency, but hardly a guarantee.

 

Pretty much a guarantee we are talking less then a handful I can't remember another guy other then Stras.