Moustakas linked to Sox again

[he gone.]

I'd disagree and say it IS about plugging holes. Especially if you like the guy (Sox seem to if they are even considering giving up a pick).

 

I'll put it this way... I think it's more probable than not that the Sox have a lineup in 2019 and 2020 where we NEED a 3B. Rather than overpay for a Mark Teahen type in 2020 via FA or trade, I'd sign a Moustakas this offseason for cheap than market price now.

Giving him 3 years and $30-39mm hurts us in no way. Shoot, go out and sign Machado, Donaldson, Arenado still. At $13mm you can just move him over to DH if you can land a Machado.

 

This whole thing that the Sox and JR spin about "rebuild" and how we act like a lower salary this year means anything to us? That's marketing hogwash.

 

My ticket is the same price. My beer is the same price. My parking is the same cost. The only person benefitting is JR and his team. JR will spend the same amount next year regardless of is Moose is on this team.

 

 

Another thing we ignore? Machado doesn't even want to play 3B. So go out, sign Moustakas. If the Sox can't go out and sign guys next year because they have $10mm more on the books this year we have bigger problems to worry about.

[Lillian]

I mentioned this several weeks ago, but I question whether Machado would really be worth what he is likely to get paid. The argument is that his OBP is not, nor has it ever been, so far in his career, at a level that justifies $35 Million per year, on a 10 year contract. He is very young, so he may improve his OBP this season, which could change the equation. Guys like Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper, Joey Votto and Mike Trout have had OBP's of .400 plus, since their early 20's. Machado has yet to demonstrate the ability to do that.

 

Something else, which no one ever mentions is that a player who gets paid that much money could have an adverse effect upon the rest of the team. It's only natural for players to compare themselves to other players, in terms of their own production and what they get paid. That becomes most important, when it comes time to negotiate a new contract. If a team is going to pay one player that much more than any of the rest of its roster, he better demonstrate that he deserves it.

 

We are all entitled to our opinion, and if you disagree, please consider these thoughts just things to think about. I could be persuaded to change my opinion, but that's just my perspective. Hey, when a team is considering spending that kind of money, it behooves them to think about everything.

[Jose Abreu]

Obviously not overweighting defense.

 

But the White Sox have historically pursued how many elite defenders with limited offensive upsides to play half their games at USCF?

Andrelton was also a solid offensive player last year and finished 8th in MVP voting.

[wrathofhahn]

I mentioned this several weeks ago, but I question whether Machado would really be worth what he is likely to get paid. The argument is that his OBP is not, nor has it ever been, so far in his career, at a level that justifies $35 Million per year, on a 10 year contract. He is very young, so he may improve his OBP this season, which could change the equation. Guys like Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper, Joey Votto and Mike Trout have had OBP's of .400 plus, since their early 20's. Machado has yet to demonstrate the ability to do that.

 

Something else, which no one ever mentions is that a player who gets paid that much money could have an adverse effect upon the rest of the team. It's only natural for players to compare themselves to other players, in terms of their own production and what they get paid. That becomes most important, when it comes time to negotiate a new contract. If a team is going to pay one player that much more than any of the rest of its roster, he better demonstrate that he deserves it.

 

We are all entitled to our opinion, and if you disagree, please consider these thoughts just things to think about. I could be persuaded to change my opinion, but that's just my perspective. Hey, when a team is considering spending that kind of money, it behooves them to think about everything.

 

I think he realizes that which is why he's trying to transition to SS. Last year he was essentially a 4 WAR player if he did that again at 3B he can kiss 300 milllion goodbye. He'll he can kiss 200 million goodbye. If he proves he can play SS however he knows teams will pay a premium regardless if he has a down year

 

Bringing it back to Moustakas he's a 2 WAR to 2.5 WAR player he clearly doesn't have the upside defensive wise but is the question would I rather spend 3/33 on Moustakas bandaid 3B for 3 years and sort of see where we are at in 2020 well that would be preferable.

[he gone.]

I think he realizes that which is why he's trying to transition to SS. Last year he was essentially a 4 WAR player if he did that again at 3B he can kiss 300 milllion goodbye. He'll he can kiss 200 million goodbye. If he proves he can play SS however he knows teams will pay a premium regardless if he has a down year

 

Bringing it back to Moustakas he's a 2 WAR to 2.5 WAR player he clearly doesn't have the upside defensive wise but is the question would I rather spend 3/33 on Moustakas bandaid 3B for 3 years and sort of see where we are at in 2020 well that would be preferable.

 

That's my take too. I'll take the here and now at a discount rather than wait it out. Especially at a position where we've historically had trouble plugging. And one that outside of Burger? I really don't see a solution. (I also don't think Burger is the solution nor do I think he'll be above replacement level in 2018 (obv. reasons- in minors), 2019, or 2020.)

 

Here are our choices:

 

Internal - Yolmer, Davidson, Burger

 

External 2018 - Moustakas, Jung Ho Kang (If he were ever to get cleared and come back - could see getting him for practically free for 1-2 years)

External 2019 - Donaldson, Machado -- then big drops to guys like Headley and Jose Reyes who I wouldn't even entertain

External 2020 - Arenado, Castellanos, Rendon, Todd Frazier

External 2021 - Jake Lamb

 

Internal -- Anderson, Moncada, draft picks? Would seem like it'd be a player playing out of his position - not a fan.

 

On that list:

Moustakas - can drive your own terms from anywhere between 3-5 years at decent price

Jung Ho Kang - competing against nobody, not sure I'd want him or he'd even represent anything better than Yolmer, don't see any reason to get involved

Donaldson - if Machado is a SS? Donaldson is the #1 target of teams, is a bit older, would expect to be overpaid

Machado - I like the guy. I'm okay with 8 years and $250mm but can see how giving a contract like that to a team that historically has a lower payroll effects the future

Rest of 2019 class? - Garbage

Arenado - Same thought behind Machado. I'd pay whatever necessary. Also think like the Yanks and Machado that we'd be a dark horse and wouldn't count on us signing him

Castellanos - he's been improving, but sounds like Detroit has been trying to extend him too, so who knows if he'll be available or if he's really gonna get much better

Rendon - would be a solid option

Frazier - hard pass

Lamb - I'd hope by 2021 we're still not searching for a 3b

Other/Trade - always an option, and probably a solid one when looking at the above options.

 

 

So looking at that list... what does the board think now. Obviously pie in the sky options of Arenado and Machado are best, but also come with the downside of paying ONE guy a huge contract while you have a number of younger guys who project to be stars and may need the money too. We almost have to think like the Rays or A's and not go too heavy on any one guy unless we go ALL-IN on smaller window

 

After that? What? Pay Donaldson too much? Rendon would be solid. But Moustakas represents a really solid option. I get it's not that inspiring, but I'd take him on a 3-4 year deal and cross of 3B on the list. We have prospects in almost every other position that look strong..OF, SS, 2B, C, pitching arms, etc. 3B is our biggest long-term hole. I'd like to get rid of it and think this would be a safe option.

 

My final verdict:

Give him 4 years, $48mm

 

[OmarComing25]

I know he doesn't really have a market at this point but I have to agree with Eminor that if the AAV falls into the $12 million range I highly doubt he'll go long-term with it. I just don't think there's any chance he'll sign for 4/48 or 5/60.

[Dick Allen]

I know he doesn't really have a market at this point but I have to agree with Eminor that if the AAV falls into the $12 million range I highly doubt he'll go long-term with it. I just don't think there's any chance he'll sign for 4/48 or 5/60.

He has to do something to save face. He isn't going to sign for 1 year and $12 million considering what he turned down. But you are probably correct. If those were parameters, probably would want an opt out. You could throw some incentives at him l. That way, if you are paying more, at least it's for production.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Dick Allen

[he gone.]

He has to do something to save face. He isn't going to sign for 1 year and $12 million considering what he turned down. But you are probably correct. If those were parameters, probably would want an opt out. You could throw some incentives at him l. That way, if you are paying more, at least it's for production.

 

Shoot, I'd give an opt-out. It's even better for us. Sign him for 4 years, $48-52mm. Give him an opt out after years 2 and 3.

I would not give him an opt-out after year one for obvious reasons as there's no real benefit to having him on this years team.

 

If we somehow did sign Machado he could play SS or 3B and move over Moustakas as necessary.

[Chicago White Sox]

The problem for Moustakas is since teams can't give him a second QO why would any team sign him to a one-year deal unless they were desperate for a 3B? And it doesn't appear any single team is really desperate for a 3B given Todd Frazier's market. I'm really not sure what his play here is. I don't envision him accepting a 4/$48M deal without an opt-out, but why would any team give him that? He's really in a pickle here.

[WBWSF]

I mentioned this several weeks ago, but I question whether Machado would really be worth what he is likely to get paid. The argument is that his OBP is not, nor has it ever been, so far in his career, at a level that justifies $35 Million per year, on a 10 year contract. He is very young, so he may improve his OBP this season, which could change the equation. Guys like Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper, Joey Votto and Mike Trout have had OBP's of .400 plus, since their early 20's. Machado has yet to demonstrate the ability to do that.

 

Something else, which no one ever mentions is that a player who gets paid that much money could have an adverse effect upon the rest of the team. It's only natural for players to compare themselves to other players, in terms of their own production and what they get paid. That becomes most important, when it comes time to negotiate a new contract. If a team is going to pay one player that much more than any of the rest of its roster, he better demonstrate that he deserves it.

 

We are all entitled to our opinion, and if you disagree, please consider these thoughts just things to think about. I could be persuaded to change my opinion, but that's just my perspective. Hey, when a team is considering spending that kind of money, it behooves them to think about everything.

Don't worry about Machado coming to the White Sox. He will sign elsewhere.

 

[he gone.]

No need to sign Moustakas... Burger will be up in the majors soon.. oh wait. This is a prime example in real time. We have no idea what Burger's injury is and hopefully it's a turned ankle. However, if it's an Achilles or ACL or something else bad?

 

You lose a year of him developing instantly. Then let's say it takes him a year of rust, and/or maybe he never returns to his college form, etc. etc.

 

Basically what I'm saying is that we are pretty good at pitcher where we can do next man up. We are pretty okay at OF dependent on how those guys develop/stay healthy.

 

We are the opposite of okay on the left side of the infield. I'm all for Moustakas and figuring it out later if Burger is swatting the ball like Babe Ruth. But for now, I think you buy at a discount and get a solid player at a solid price.

[he gone.]

No need to sign Moustakas... Burger will be up in the majors soon.. oh wait. This is a prime example in real time. We have no idea what Burger's injury is and hopefully it's a turned ankle. However, if it's an Achilles or ACL or something else bad?

 

You lose a year of him developing instantly. Then let's say it takes him a year of rust, and/or maybe he never returns to his college form, etc. etc.

 

Basically what I'm saying is that we are pretty good at pitcher where we can do next man up. We are pretty okay at OF dependent on how those guys develop/stay healthy.

 

We are the opposite of okay on the left side of the infield. I'm all for Moustakas and figuring it out later if Burger is swatting the ball like Babe Ruth. But for now, I think you buy at a discount and get a solid player at a solid price.

 

 

Bump.

 

I'm sorry, but there you go. It's so important that your team is ready to ROLL in 2019-2021 and I'm not about to take risks to mess that window of opportunity up. I don't want to be the Pirates. Sign Moose if you can get him for a reasonable price and figure the rest out later. Look to the Cubs or Astros. You can never have too many good players. If you have Moose, Machado and a healthy Burger who is mashing? Rotate and get creative. Who cares about paying the guy this year.

[bmags]

I think where I'll have trouble agreeing is I just don't think the then-31 year old Moustakas is us ready-to-go in 2019/20. He seems like another piece we would be trying to upgrade.

 

I don't think Moustakas is a bad player, but I at least think our prospects can create a series of depth and average-ish players similar to the Brewers offense.

 

I'd prefer we use free agent money toward elite upgrades, and more toward the 26-28 year old free agents. Basically, if this was 2 years ago and a player like justin Upton was still available and we signed him, i'd be good with that.

 

But to me this is more like signing 29 year old Todd Frazier. Todd Frazier is a good player! Definite mlb starter. But it turned out Frazier was more decent starter on a team, instead of all star 3b that we thought. And that's Mous to me. Not someone you are embarrassed about, but not great either.

 

And I'm like 100% sure in the next two offseasons we won't care if we had to pay 5 million more a season if it means we get a great player instead of a decently priced Mous.

[Lillian]

I'm going to go "out on a limb" here and predict that the Sox will sign Moustakas, and that it will be 5 years. If they were seriously considering it, before this injury to Burger, it now seems very likely. It just makes too much sense, and shouldn't completely rule out trying to sign Machado, though I don't see the Sox winning that bidding war.

[wrathofhahn]

I'm going to go "out on a limb" here and predict that the Sox will sign Moustakas, and that it will be 5 years. If they were seriously considering it, before this injury to Burger, it now seems very likely. It just makes too much sense, and shouldn't completely rule out trying to sign Machado, though I don't see the Sox winning that bidding war.

 

Five years is stupid there is no reason to offer him that kind of length. I'd do 3/33 or possibly 4/42 backloaded with an opt out after two. Who are we bidding against?

[Lillian]

Five years is stupid there is no reason to offer him that kind of length. I'd do 3/33 or possibly 4/42 backloaded with an opt out after two. Who are we bidding against?

 

Do you think that he would accept an offer like that?

[turnin' two]

Do you think that he would accept an offer like that?

 

His best offer right now may be free drinks for a beer league softball team.

[he gone.]

I think where I'll have trouble agreeing is I just don't think the then-31 year old Moustakas is us ready-to-go in 2019/20. He seems like another piece we would be trying to upgrade.

 

I don't think Moustakas is a bad player, but I at least think our prospects can create a series of depth and average-ish players similar to the Brewers offense.

 

I'd prefer we use free agent money toward elite upgrades, and more toward the 26-28 year old free agents. Basically, if this was 2 years ago and a player like justin Upton was still available and we signed him, i'd be good with that.

 

But to me this is more like signing 29 year old Todd Frazier. Todd Frazier is a good player! Definite mlb starter. But it turned out Frazier was more decent starter on a team, instead of all star 3b that we thought. And that's Mous to me. Not someone you are embarrassed about, but not great either.

 

And I'm like 100% sure in the next two offseasons we won't care if we had to pay 5 million more a season if it means we get a great player instead of a decently priced Mous.

 

True, but look at the list I made above. Outside a few of the guys at third, most are pretty bad. Add to that we really don’t have depth at that position. I think it’s a safe play at the right spot. Otherwise I think we’ll be trading for a 3B in 2020.

[Bob Sacamano]

His best offer right now may be free drinks for a beer league softball team.

 

My beer league baseball team could use Moose. A lot of our guys resemble the shape of Jake Burger.

[Dick Allen]

Do you think that he would accept an offer like that?

From what I have read, he has a few one year offers. No need to offer 5. His agent is Boras so probably doubtful he signs something like that, but he is going to have to sign something pretty soon.

 

If he won’t agree to White Sox terms, there’s a pretty good chance he’ll be a free agent again in a year. Then go after him when Machado goes to the Yankees and Donaldson to the Cardinals.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Superstar Lamar]

Five years is stupid there is no reason to offer him that kind of length. I'd do 3/33 or possibly 4/42 backloaded with an opt out after two. Who are we bidding against?

 

Why back load it? If anything I would think front loading it would fit better. Payroll is low this year and a low salary would make him more tradeable if necessary in the future

[Lillian]

Therefore, do I understand that you guys think that Boras would urge him to take a one year deal, in order to try to re-enter the free agent market, with that stacked free agent group, next year? I'm skeptical.

[Dick Allen]

Therefore, do I understand that you guys think that Boras would urge him to take a one year deal, in order to try to re-enter the free agent market, with that stacked free agent group, next year? I'm skeptical.

I think they would like to avoid it not just for the sake next years class is strong. He turned down the QO. Chances of a team coming close to matching that over a year is slim. He does save some face if the total package is larger. You sign him for 4/$48 million, that is double the years and just under triple the money Frazier signed for, so they could spin that as a win.

 

 

But at some point, the one year contact may be all he has. There still has not been any report of talks between the parties. Just some innuendo which may or may not mean the Sox have actual interest.

 

The White Sox hold the cards because a one year contract with them makes no sense to the team, so it could be his only shot at a multi year deal.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Dick Allen

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

I would almost take the opposite opinion that the injury to Burger and Adolfo only help enforce the idea of how valuable the Sox good draft positioning is this year. I still think I'd lean towards keeping that 2nd round pick and continue to strengthen the farm with players that will more than likely contribute to the estimated competitive window (either as a player or as a trade piece to acquire a player).

[Chicago White Sox]

Five years is stupid there is no reason to offer him that kind of length. I'd do 3/33 or possibly 4/42 backloaded with an opt out after two. Who are we bidding against?

You’re going to give up a high second round draft pick so Moustakas can leave after two years? I thought you were guy preaching the rebuild was moving too fast. Any deal for Moose has to be at least four years with no opt-out to warrant the lost draft pick and paying him for a worthless 2018 season.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Chicago White Sox