Moustakas linked to Sox again

[wrathofhahn]

Do you think that he would accept an offer like that?

 

Cozart accepted 3/38 and was coming off a much better year. All he's been getting is one year offers according to reports. So yeah I think he would but not being a fly on the wall I don't know for sure his thinking.

 

Particularly the 4 year deal with an opt out after year two. Of course a three year deal would be ideal. We have him until age 33 after that you probably don't want him anyways. All these people in this thread saying it has to be a five year deal why is it crucial we have him through age 34 and 35?

[caulfield12]

Cozart accepted 3/38 and was coming off a much better year. All he's been getting is one year offers according to reports. So yeah I think he would but not being a fly on the wall I don't know for sure his thinking.

 

Particularly the 4 year deal with an opt out after year two. Of course a three year deal would be ideal. We have him until age 33 after that you probably don't want him anyways. All these people in this thread saying it has to be a five year deal why is it crucial we have him through age 34 and 35?

 

Age 33, turning 34 with a few weeks left in 2022..would be the end of five year deal.

 

Cozart is closer to Frazier in age than Moustakas...we always say how rare FA’s under 30 are these days, hence all the crazy interest in Harper, Machado and Arenado.

[bmags]

By that philosophy, we never would have added Dye, Pods, Pierzynski, Contreras, Thome, Quentin, Eaton...too many ?’s.

 

Very simple. Buy low. Sell high. Rinse, repeat. We kept buying high and selling low until last year.

 

It’s also how we ended up with Abreu...big market teams all on sideline then.

 

Wow, great examples!

[Dick Allen]

Why are people so opposed to Moustakas, but seemed to really dig signing a 30 year old catcher to a 2 year deal, which certainly doesn't fit with the rebuild?

[bmags]

Moustakas just had bad timing.

 

He may have but I think it's at the margins. I think he could have made more next year, or last year.

 

But I don't see these all power, not particularly versatile, low-OBP players coming back at least in the next 2-3 offseasons (conservatively).

 

Justin Turner is really good, he was granted older and shorter track record, but had an unreal year and got 4 for 64. I'm not so sure this isn't the ceiling for the 29+ year old FA 3b for a few cycles.

[wrathofhahn]

Age 33, turning 34 with a few weeks left in 2022..would be the end of five year deal.

 

Cozart is closer to Frazier in age than Moustakas...we always say how rare FA’s under 30 are these days, hence all the crazy interest in Harper, Machado and Arenado.

 

Cozart though is coming off his best year.

 

We have no idea how Moustakas is going to age through his 30's actually if you look at sort of his body type and bat profile (low OBP + power) chances are the answer is not well.

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[Dick Allen]

He may have but I think it's at the margins. I think he could have made more next year, or last year.

 

But I don't see these all power, not particularly versatile, low-OBP players coming back at least in the next 2-3 offseasons (conservatively).

 

Justin Turner is really good, he was granted older and shorter track record, but had an unreal year and got 4 for 64. I'm not so sure this isn't the ceiling for the 29+ year old FA 3b for a few cycles.

If someone signed Justin Turner when he was 29 to a 4 year/$48 million contract, everyone would be calling for that GM's head.

 

 

Moustakas was a top prospect who really struggled offensively for years. Seemed to find himself. His OBP was over .340 in 2015. Then gets hurt, and became a total pull guy less patience during his free agent year, perhaps because HRs generally pay. It wouldn't surprise me if his OBP increases a bit. Maybe not to .350, but maybe.330/.335. I'd like to think moving from Kaufmann to GRF would help him, but we have tried to rely on that recently, and it hasn't exactly worked. I have no idea what they would agree to, but I do think there is a price where saying no is being very shortsided.

[wrathofhahn]

If someone signed Justin Turner when he was 29 to a 4 year/$48 million contract, everyone would be calling for that GM's head.

 

 

Moustakas was a top prospect who really struggled offensively for years. Seemed to find himself. His OBP was over .340 in 2015. Then gets hurt, and became a total pull guy less patience during his free agent year, perhaps because HRs generally pay. It wouldn't surprise me if his OBP increases a bit. Maybe not to .350, but maybe.330/.335. I'd like to think moving from Kaufmann to GRF would help him, but we have tried to rely on that recently, and it hasn't exactly worked. I have no idea what they would agree to, but I do think there is a price where saying no is being very shortsided.

 

There is that small possibility but you can't pay him on hoping he will somehow improve in his 30's you have to deal with what he is now.

 

I do agree I'd rather sign Moose for 4 then commit to Machado to 10.

[Dick Allen]

There is that small possibility but you can't pay him on hoping he will somehow improve in his 30's you have to deal with what he is now.

 

I do agree I'd rather sign Moose for 4 then commit to Machado to 10.

I think if signing Moustakas to what most here want him signed for, precludes the White Sox from going after the top guys next year, they weren't getting those guys anyways. If you are going to spend, you are going to have to spend a lot and be prepared to pay extra for upgrades and/or mistakes.

 

If everything has to be done with such precision, it isn't going to work out. All big market teams have more than their fair share of dead money and/or money paid to other teams to take highly paid players. If the White Sox aren't in a position to do this, everyone dreaming of Machado and everyone else was just dreaming anyway.

[WBWSF]

Someone was talking about fans would get really upset if they "wasted" the money on a one year deal...but I said that nobody cared much at all about Holland's $6 million year deal last year, with no return on investment.

If fans complained about the $6 million paid to Holland, I wonder how people are going to feel about paying $9 million to Joakim Soria.

 

[Eminor3rd]

BS I mentioned discount 100 tmes and mentioned my term earler. I think if the Sox thought it was OK for a guy to be aound for 2 years and influence others, they may have gone after Frazier for what he ultimately settled. I have said many times it is unlikely Borax would settle for what the team is willing to pay.

 

Then what is the point here? Why are you arguing so vehemently with me that we should sign a guy at terms you don't believe he'll sign for?

 

Ok, yes, if Mike Moustakas takes some insane discount, totally counter to both precedent and his agent's stated intentions, to the point where it's clearly below market but still relatively long-term, then I can get on board with signing Moustakas.

 

Is that what you wanted me to say?

[Eminor3rd]

Why are people so opposed to Moustakas, but seemed to really dig signing a 30 year old catcher to a 2 year deal, which certainly doesn't fit with the rebuild?

 

Because it was 2/$15mm, and the only guy who stands to lose PT is Narvaez.

 

I think most of us would take Moustakas at 2/$15mm, even if it meant fewer ABs for Yolmer.

[steveno89]

Because it was 2/$15mm, and the only guy who stands to lose PT is Narvaez.

 

I think most of us would take Moustakas at 2/$15mm, even if it meant fewer ABs for Yolmer.

 

Moustakas at 2 years/$15 million would be a solid value

[Dick Allen]

Then what is the point here? Why are you arguing so vehemently with me that we should sign a guy at terms you don't believe he'll sign for?

 

Ok, yes, if Mike Moustakas takes some insane discount, totally counter to both precedent and his agent's stated intentions, to the point where it's clearly below market but still relatively long-term, then I can get on board with signing Moustakas.

 

Is that what you wanted me to say?

You weree arguing about signing Moustakas takes you out on Machado. Do you really think that signing is going to happen?

 

I think there is a better chance Moustakas would sign for something the White Sox are agreeable to, than the pipe dream that is Manny Machado, who doesn't even want to play 3B. I still think it's slim.

 

My point was there was going to be a price that made sense. From the get go. You are the one arguing, no, no, no. Making up stuff, rounding down to say he's average. Using stats of players who barely played to try to make him look worse. And it still wasn't enough, so you want to start it again.

 

As I stated previously, I think eventually Boras will pull something out of his ass, and Moustakas will get something something right now that doesn't seem possible. If not, the Sox should be ready to pounce.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Dick Allen

[hogan873]

Moustakas at 2 years/$15 million would be a solid value

That would be an incredible value, considering Frazier got 2/$17 million. I don't see it happening. If Moustakas ends up signing a shorter term deal, I would expect something more like $12-$14 million per for a year or two.

[Eminor3rd]

You are arguing about signing Machado. Do you really think that is going to happen?

 

I think there is a better chance Moustakas would sign for something the White Sox are agreeable to, than the pipe dream that is Manny Machado, who doesn't even want to play 3B.

 

My point was there was going to be a price that made sense. From the get go. You are the one arguing, no, no, no. Making up stuff, rounding down to say he's average. Using stats of players who barely played to try to make him look worse. And it still wasn't enough, so you want to start it again.

 

This is the thing: of course there's a price where it makes sense. You could have said "all I'm saying is that Moustakas' price might fall far enough where it makes sense to pivot from the unlikely plan of signing Machado." And maybe I might disagree that I think it'll fall that far, but that's the end of it. Two reasonable sides to the same coin.

 

You spend so much time trying to find decimal points where you can catch where my on-the-fly, message-board mental math is off, you rarely bother to even consider my point. And so we constantly argue only to find out we barely even disagree.

[Dick Allen]

This is the thing: of course there's a price where it makes sense. You could have said "all I'm saying is that Moustakas' price might fall far enough where it makes sense to pivot from the unlikely plan of signing Machado." And maybe I might disagree that I think it'll fall that far, but that's the end of it. Two reasonable sides to the same coin.

 

You spend so much time trying to find decimal points where you can catch where my on-the-fly, message-board mental math is off, you rarely bother to even consider my point. And so we constantly argue only to find out we barely even disagree.

I have been pretty consistent from the get go. Just read the first page of the thread. I wrote at the beginning if signing Moustakas hinders you to make any move next year, you cannot do it. I don't know how you could have interpreted I ever advocated signing Moustakas for anything but a pretty decent discount. Besides, we are at the point where it would just be bidding against themselves. If all he is getting is one year offers, that plays into the White Sox hands. They can always try again next year if necessary he wants too much.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Dick Allen

[FT35]

Another feather in the cap for the Moose signing supporters......with the Burger injury, there's a little extra insurance incentive if we sign him--they could take their time getting Jake back to speed if we handed out a 4 year deal to Moose.

 

Kind of encouraging to see Davidson raking already, though...maybe buying us some time.

Edited February 27, 2018 by FT35

[ptatc]

But the point that I would make is even if we dont find a big upgrade in 2019 I have 100% confidence we can find a 2 WAR 3b either internally, FA, or trade. I know people think Moustakas is more than that, I don't, and so we may as well wait and just get the younger version in 2 years.

There were only 19 2 WAR 3b last year. They aren't easy to find.

[ptatc]

Why are people so opposed to Moustakas, but seemed to really dig signing a 30 year old catcher to a 2 year deal, which certainly doesn't fit with the rebuild?

Having a veteran catcher to work with the young pitchers gives him an advantage.

[bmags]

There were only 19 2 WAR 3b last year. They aren't easy to find.

 

That actually sounds pretty easy to find. For instance, the white sox had 2 of them.

[wrathofhahn]

That actually sounds pretty easy to find. For instance, the white sox had 2 of them.

 

It's not hard to find which is why I would only want Moustakas on my/whitesox terms. I wouldn't have been opposed to say for example trading for Solarte. I'm just not convinced Sanchez can hit enough for the spot. Zips for example is projecting him to have a .684 OPS next year.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Why are people so opposed to Moustakas, but seemed to really dig signing a 30 year old catcher to a 2 year deal, which certainly doesn't fit with the rebuild?

 

- Castillo didn't cost the Sox a draft pick, therefore it doesn't hurt the rebuild to add him.

- It's nice to have a veteran catcher be on hand to help with the young pitchers coming up.

- Obviously Castillo is Renteria's boy - and I'm ok with that.

- He played with and is friends with Machado (it's a stretch, but it couldn't possible hurt their chances).

[ptatc]

That actually sounds pretty easy to find. For instance, the white sox had 2 of them.

That's weird. Since there were only 19 in all of the MLB that means 1/3 of all teams didn't have one. That doesn't sound easy to find to me. But I was never good at math.

[caulfield12]

Here's the problem.

 

Moustakas pre-2015 was a completely different hitter.

 

Unless you accept that hitters can change, then you're stuck compiling all his career numbers before that time and profiling him as "average." We could do the same with Avi, Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso.

 

Obviously, such a high draft pick has/had a tremendous amount of talent/ability, or he wouldn't have been selected so high.

 

If you think he's a 2 WAR guy going forward, it's all based on his pre-2015 numbers and last year's 1.8.

 

Here's why that's a huge mistake:

 

1) He made a concerted effort to go to the opposite direction and really raised his overall offensive numbers by using all fields, beginning in that 2015 season. Before that, he was not very good and back and forth...or at least on the verge of being sent down.

 

2) He was also trending in the exact same direction (high 3's, low 4's) WAR-wise in 2016 before his injury.

 

3) If you don't believe that a 29 year-old still close to the prime of his athletic shelf life can improve the second year back from an injury on defense, I don't know what to say...if you want me to cite the articles, I'm happy to link them again, the last 4-6 weeks of 2017 he was dealing with leg issues and that affected him as well as the injury recovery/rehab year.

 

4) Last year's Royals didn't buy into the team concept like the 2013-2016 teams did...they basically were like the 2006-2016 White Sox, lots of talented players pretty much doing their own thing at the plate instead of buying into the team concept. Moustakas got away from spraying the ball all over the field and became pull happy in an attempt to set himself up for his FA due to the fact that the writing was on the wall about the team going anywhere, he became a "selfish" player again because he knew the Royals weren't going to be able to keep him, Hosmer or Cain.

 

5) So if you think his ceiling is now a 2 WAR 3B, I'll happily take that bet that he averages 3 the next three seasons...and you can have the 2. That's worth more than $7-10 million per season. I constantly hear that it's worth closer to $20 million per year.

 

If his defense bounces back (we can argue both sides here), then he's clearly a 3-4 WAR guy. If not, he's closer to 2 or 2.5. There's a risk there.

 

But, in the right situation, where he becomes one of the long-term team leaders and role models...like he was in KC, then he can show the younger players how to play together as a team and do the little things to win, because he's already been there and done that, in our own division, multiple playoff series, 2 World Series, etc.

 

Frazier never really felt 100% comfortable in the AL, at least that was my perception.

 

My question is less about his defense and more whether he's interested in helping a rebuilding team win again or inserting himself in an "immediately competitive" environment right away. Obviously, money considerations (see Hosmer) will be 90-95% of that calculation, especially with Boras as his agent.

 

6) So yes, Frazier and Yolmer were technically 2 WAR players last year, but the odds of Moustakas being a solid all-around contributor and putting up a 3-4 WAR (especially in an even more hitter-friendly park than Kauffman) are MUCH MUCH GREATER than Yolmer Sanchez or Matt Davidson ever doing the same thing.

 

And now we have the Burger setback to consider as well in projecting into the future...

Edited February 28, 2018 by caulfield12