Moustakas linked to Sox again

[Dick Allen]

But it's not just the guys that hit FA 5 years from now. It's also extending guys like Abreu and Avi. If they are planning to trade those guys before next July, then that's just two more spots to fill in the everyday lineup starting in 2020. I really don't see them trading Abreu. I think he is a White Sox through this next contention window. Seems Avi is still a question mark as to whether he fits in the long term plan.

Plus, you have to supplement every year. And that costs a lot of money.

[southsider2k5]

I got to disagree with the majority of this post. Give me the star in Machado over a couple 2 WAR players. If we can't develop, sign, or trade for those guys when needed, the rebuild has been an abject failure. Money will not be an issue even with Machado in the fold, at least not for a few years. And as I just mentioned in the post above, if we're worried about being able to extend guys like Moncada & Jimenez six or seven years from now then we're going to make a ton of decisions that do not maximize our opportunity to win in the present.

 

Trusting this to being able to outbid the rest of baseball on Machado is a terrible idea.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Plus, you have to supplement every year. And that costs a lot of money.

Yes. Take a look at what the cubs have done each of the last three or four off seasons. Lester, Fowler (brought him back), Lackey, Heyward, Zobrist, Chatwood, Darvish. I’m sure I’m missing a few.

[Chicago White Sox]

But it's not just the guys that hit FA 5 years from now. It's also extending guys like Abreu and Avi. If they are planning to trade those guys before next July, then that's just two more spots to fill in the everyday lineup starting in 2020. I really don't see them trading Abreu. I think he is a White Sox through this next contention window. Seems Avi is still a question mark as to whether he fits in the long term plan.

That’s fine but we literally have zero financial commitments going forward. We can afford a luxury like Machado right now because our core will be incredibly cheap for the next four to five years. And the good news is won’t prevent us from resigning Abreu and adding other free agents. Now is not the time to be frugle and go after value signings. Our goal should be to acquire the most impactful talent possible and use our prospect depth to fill in the remaining holes as needed. Machado is definitely a long-shot, but adding a 6 WAR player in one fair swoop radically changes the complexion of the team. Adding a guy like Moose probably makes us better, but doesn’t really move the needle that much. Plus he costs us a high draft pick in what should hopefully be our last big draft. I think we need to stick with the process and go after legit stars when the time is right.

[wrathofhahn]

I got to disagree with the majority of this post. Give me the star in Machado over a couple 2 WAR players. If we can’t develop, sign, or trade for those guys when needed, the rebuild has been an abject failure. Money will not be an issue even with Machado in the fold, at least not for a few years. And as I just mentioned in the post above, if we’re worried about being able to extend guys like Moncada & Jimenez six or seven years from now then we’re going to make a ton of decisions that do not maximize our opportunity to win in the present.

 

We really shouldn't be signing any premier FA's right now. It's been one year where we have committed to the rebuild.

 

You don't sign someone like Harper or Machado without making promises they are not going to sign here and watch us tear down the club to get better in 2-3 years. The keyword of your post is when needed. It's unfornate that the timeline doesn't match up but we should have a much better idea in 2020 how close we are and where the real needs are on the roster.

 

Rondon. Goldschmidt. Sale. Are all scheduled to be free agents in 2020. MLB free agency will continue to exist after Machado and Harper deals.

[Chicago White Sox]

Trusting this to being able to outbid the rest of baseball on Machado is a terrible idea.

Settling for league average players a year or two early is even worse. There are alternatives in the likely even we miss out on Machado. I’m still struggling to understand why so many people want to go with plan B (or C/D for that matter) before we even attempt plan A.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

That’s fine but we literally have zero financial commitments going forward. We can afford a luxury like Machado right now because our core will be incredibly cheap for the next four to five years. And the good news is won’t prevent us from resigning Abreu and adding other free agents. Now is not the time to be frugle and go after value signings. Our goal should be to acquire the most impactful talent possible and use our prospect depth to fill in the remaining holes as needed. Machado is definitely a long-shot, but adding a 6 WAR player in one fair swoop radically changes the complexion of the team. Adding a guy like Moose probably makes us better, but doesn’t really move the needle that much. Plus he costs us a high draft pick in what should hopefully be our last big draft. I think we need to stick with the process and go after legit stars when the time is right.

I agree with this in theory but where it loses me is the fact that I do not see the White Sox committing $150M+ to a single player let alone $300M+. So we’re stuck with the second tier guys anyway. Then what?

[Chicago White Sox]

We really shouldn't be signing any premier FA's right now. It's been one year where we have committed to the rebuild.

 

You don't sign someone like Harper or Machado without making promises they are not going to sign here and watch us tear down the club to get better in 2-3 years. The keyword of your post is when needed. It's unfornate that the timeline doesn't match up but we should have a much better idea in 2020 how close we are and where the real needs are on the roster.

 

Rondon. Goldschmidt. Sale. Are all scheduled to be free agents in 2020. MLB free agency will continue to exist after Machado and Harper deals.

Too much of the core will be up in 2019 and burning service time. Free agency can be a two year process, but we have to start going for it in 2019 and that means being active with next year’s class IMO.

[southsider2k5]

Settling for league average players a year or two early is even worse. There are alternatives in the likely even we miss out on Machado. I'm still struggling to understand why so many people want to go with plan B (or C/D for that matter) before we even attempt plan A.

 

Because Plan A has a minuscule chance of working.

[Chicago White Sox]

I agree with this in theory but where it loses me is the fact that I do not see the White Sox committing $150M+ to a single player let alone $300M+. So we’re stuck with the second tier guys anyway. Then what?

I fully believe they are prepared to offer Machado a $300M+ contract. Will they ultimately out-bid everyone else? Probably not, but it’s worth a shot. And I’m a huge Donaldson fan and feel like he’s a great (and more realistic) fall-back option.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Settling for league average players a year or two early is even worse. There are alternatives in the likely even we miss out on Machado. I’m still struggling to understand why so many people want to go with plan B (or C/D for that matter) before we even attempt plan A.

It’s not so much that we want them to go with plan B but that we are holding realistic expectations on how they will proceed given past ownership decisions. I have no doubt they are going to be bringing guys in and paying a hefty sum to do so, I’m just highly skeptical they will extend themselves to the top 3-5 guys in any FA class (esp when those guys demand upwards of $150M).

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I fully believe they are prepared to offer Machado a $300M+ contract. Will they ultimately out-bid everyone else? Probably not, but it’s worth a shot. And I’m a huge Donaldson fan and feel like he’s a great (and more realistic) fall-back option.

I like Donaldson but he turns 33 later this year. That’s a guy without question that will be in serious decline within the 2020 (age 35 season) thru 2024 (age 39 season) contention window.

[southsider2k5]

I like Donaldson but he turns 33 later this year. That's a guy without question that will be in serious decline within the 2020 (age 35 season) thru 2024 (age 39 season) contention window.

 

Donaldson shouldn't be a thought.

[Dick Allen]

It’s not so much that we want them to go with plan B but that we are holding realistic expectations on how they will proceed given past ownership decisions. I have no doubt they are going to be bringing guys in and paying a hefty sum to do so, I’m just highly skeptical they will extend themselves to the top 3-5 guys in any FA class (esp when those guys demand upwards of $150M).

I just feel the amount of money they will spend will not be unlimited. If you get the price you like on Moustakas take it. A good time to buy a winter jacket is the spring or summer. You don't get the newest style, but you may get a great deal on a coat that gets the job done. If a discounted Moustakas means you don't have money for Machado or Donaldson next year, you weren't a player anyway. Some posters are talking out of both sides of their mouths. No money committed, can sign all these guys, but wait, don't sign this guy, then you have settled. No. The Sox would have the fallback in place, and supposedly a lot of funds for other needs including Machado and Donaldson. That said, I don't think it is going to happen. Other than these random reports this winter, I have seen no actual linkage between Moustakas and the White Sox. You would have to figure something would come out.

 

 

Obviously different times with different dollar amounts, but the White Sox prior to the 1981 season did sign Jim Essian as a free agent to be their catcher. Then Carlton Fisk became available, and they signed him. If the Sox signed a better 3B, Moustakas could move to another team or to DH or play 1B on occassion.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Chicago White Sox]

I like Donaldson but he turns 33 later this year. That’s a guy without question that will be in serious decline within the 2020 (age 35 season) thru 2024 (age 39 season) contention window.

He’s a 5 or 6 WAR player to begin with. Even with a normal decline curve he’d be significantly more valuable player than Moustakas. I get having concerns over signing guys in their 30’s, but Donaldson is one of the best hitters in baseball. Unless my scouts have reason to believe he’ll fall off a cliff, I’m all for signing him assuming the right price.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

He’s a 5 or 6 WAR player to begin with. Even with a normal decline curve he’d be significantly more valuable player than Moustakas. I get having concerns over signing guys in their 30’s, but Donaldson is one of the best hitters in baseball. Unless my scouts have reason to believe he’ll fall off a cliff, I’m all for signing him assuming the right price.

It’s debatable that Donaldson will be a much more valuable player than Moose from 2020 thru 2024. Even still, he’s also going to be much more expensive than Moose on an AAV basis assuming Moose’s market continues to tank.

[Chicago White Sox]

I just feel the amount of money they will spend will not be unlimited. If you get the price you like on Moustakas take it. A good time to buy a winter jacket is the spring or summer. You don't get the newest style, but you may get a great deal on a coat that gets the job done. If a discounted Moustakas means you don't have money for Machado or Donaldson next year, you weren't a player anyway. Some posters are talking out of both sides of their mouths. No money committed, can sign all these guys, but wait, don't sign this guy, then you have settled. No. The Sox would have the fallback in place, and supposedly a lot of funds for other needs including Machado and Donaldson. That said, I don't think it is going to happen. Other than these random reports this winter, I have seen no actual linkage between Moustakas and the White Sox. You would have to figure something would come out.

 

 

Obviously different times with different dollar amounts, but the White Sox prior to the 1981 season did sign Jim Essian as a free agent to be their catcher. Then Carlton Fisk became available, and they signed him. If the Sox signed a better 3B, Moustakas could move to another team or to DH or play 1B on occassion.

A discounted Moustakas doesn’t prevent from adding Machado, it just locks you into a league average player who will need to move to 1B (where the value suddenly disappears) or will force you to move Anderson to CF. Plus you lose an important draft pick. I’ve said numerous times I would have added JD Martinez if I could get him a discount. I just think Moustakas is a less impactful player and we don’t need buy league average players this early into a rebuild.

[wrathofhahn]

Settling for league average players a year or two early is even worse. There are alternatives in the likely even we miss out on Machado. I’m still struggling to understand why so many people want to go with plan B (or C/D for that matter) before we even attempt plan A.

 

Because signing Machado is a win now move and right now the Sox aren't ready to win. Reality check last years team lost 95 games. This year the team at best projected to win in the low 70's. That means likely 85+ losses.

 

The Orioles lose 87 games games last year WITH Machado. One player will not turn around the franchise and it makes very little sense to commit to Machado when you don't know what you have at the ML level. Will Machado be willing to sit and wait if a couple of our prospects don't pan out and the rebuild is longer then Hahn intended.

 

Or will be forced to continue to go for it and throw bad money after good. You want to see what that looks like well take a look at the Orioles

[username]

A discounted Moustakas doesn’t prevent from adding Machado, it just locks you into a league average player who will need to move to 1B (where the value suddenly disappears) or will force you to move Anderson to CF. Plus you lose an important draft pick. I’ve said numerous times I would have added JD Martinez if I could get him a discount. I just think Moustakas is a less impactful player and we don’t need buy league average players this early into a rebuild.

 

Well put. I’m in favor of Mouse at the right price but this is probably the best-said case I’ve heard for not doing it.

[Dick Allen]

A discounted Moustakas doesn’t prevent from adding Machado, it just locks you into a league average player who will need to move to 1B (where the value suddenly disappears) or will force you to move Anderson to CF. Plus you lose an important draft pick. I’ve said numerous times I would have added JD Martinez if I could get him a discount. I just think Moustakas is a less impactful player and we don’t need buy league average players this early into a rebuild.

He isn't league average.

[Chicago White Sox]

It’s debatable that Donaldson will be a much more valuable player than Moose from 2020 thru 2024. Even still, he’s also going to be much more expensive than Moose on an AAV basis assuming Moose’s market continues to tank.

When you have a cheap core in place, you’re goal should be to maximize production and not value. And it’s hard to optimize production when you’re locking in league average players in your biggest potential area for improvement.

[username]

I also wonder if scouts might expect some bounceback in defensive value another year from surgery. He had pretty significant knee surgery and was playing less than a year after.

[Dick Allen]

When you have a cheap core in place, you’re goal should be to maximize production and not value. And it’s hard to optimize production when you’re locking in league average players in your biggest potential area for improvement.

8.8,7.6,5.0 Donaldson's fWAR the last 3 years. Looks like he is trending down. Still great, but who knows. You want to sign him next year. If he signed for 5 years, there is a really good chance league average would be his level at some point. If you sign Manny Machado for 10 years, there is a pretty good chance he will be league average at some point.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

Your initial post that I quoted said something to effect that the white sox are likely not a playoff caliber team in two years (2020) if Moose is hitting in the middle of the lineup. How do you figure? And how do you define “middle of the lineup”? To me, that’s #3 thru #6. How many 2017 playoff teams regularly batted a guy #6 in their lineup last year with an OPS better than .835? Even if you are expecting a drop in performance two years from now, are you expecting it to be so dramatic that his OPS falls below say .750? Even after moving into a more hitter friendly park? For reference, the Yankees scored the second most runs in baseball last year and they were batting Greg Bird in the #6 spot for most of their playoff games. That’s a team that made it to the ALCS and was one game away from knocking off the eventual champ. The guys NL playoff teams were rolling out in that spot in the order were even worse...

 

No, I don't consider #6 to be "middle of the order." But an argument where a team can be so good offensively that they still made the playoffs despite a mediocre performance by a guy in the #6 hole is not an argument that we should sign a mediocre guy for the #6 hole.

[Eminor3rd]

He isn't league average.

 

You keep saying that, but I don't know why. He put up 2.2 fWAR last year and both Steamer and ZiPS project him at 2.5. A league average player is "roughly 2 WAR." Ok, maybe he's slightly above? He's within rounding error of a league average player.