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How Close is Dylan Cease


kwolf68

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Ok with Soxtalk down, I was itching to talk about Dylan. I watched two of his Spring Training games and was impressed. His performance against Seattle was electric even though he did not have a completely consistent curveball. But what I noticed was he still had overall good command, a high 90s fast ball, a biting curve (though it was a slightly off) and even though I only counted it once or twice, a very capable change up. The ball explodes out of his hand and with 3 potential plus pitches he has high upside.

 

If he can spot his breaking ball a bit better I am not sure I don't see a top of the rotation type starter here. With his stuff and demeanor I want no parts of talk of moving to the pen.

 

When do we see him? I predict he goes to ST 2019 as a candidate to join the rotation and will join it, never to see the minor leagues again. Thanks Cubs!!

Edited by kwolf68
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The biggest issue for him by far is conditioning. Last year with the Cubs and Sox orgs he threw 93.1 total innings. That is, for a starter, a miniscule number. If he stays healthy, he needs a full 2018 and a full 2019 season to build up that arm, and that's assuming no setbacks.

 

If there are no setbacks, kid stays healthy for the next 2 years, then you could talk to me about a September or late 2019 callup. If he puts in a full minor league season, I could give him a couple of major league starts or use him in the bullpen in late 2019.

 

If he's joining the starting rotation in 2019 out of ST after only throwing 120 innings this year, I'm going to say that something went very wrong, and he won't be there for long.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 11:19 AM)
The biggest issue for him by far is conditioning. Last year with the Cubs and Sox orgs he threw 93.1 total innings. That is, for a starter, a miniscule number. If he stays healthy, he needs a full 2018 and a full 2019 season to build up that arm, and that's assuming no setbacks.

 

If there are no setbacks, kid stays healthy for the next 2 years, then you could talk to me about a September or late 2019 callup. If he puts in a full minor league season, I could give him a couple of major league starts or use him in the bullpen in late 2019.

 

If he's joining the starting rotation in 2019 out of ST after only throwing 120 innings this year, I'm going to say that something went very wrong, and he won't be there for long.

While you're correct, his starts in our organization last year were also marred by absolutely pitiful defense. It was almost laughable how it followed him every start- he had to throw many more pitches in fewer innings because of it

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QUOTE (kwolf68 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 11:22 AM)
Conditioning? I never even though about that. Hadn't even looked up his numbers. Good points Balta. I hope he isn't destined for the pen, I just see a kid with amazing potential when I watched him this spring.

He's had various injuries including Tommy John Surgery a couple years ago, so there's every reason to take our time working with his arm. The stuff is there. There's a big time starter in there, if his arm and body hold together, but we can't push this. Some stints in the bullpen in late 2019 (think David Price for the Rays in 08) wouldn't be a bad thing if we can get him to that point, but we have to balance that with caution.

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QUOTE (kwolf68 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 11:28 AM)
Holdon...Am I reading this right?

 

Cease pitched across 3 teams in 2017...

 

totaling over 180 innings pitched...

 

2 wins,20 loss? LOL......250 strike outs? Mid 3.s era?

You are not reading this right. Are you adding the "2017 total" line to the lines for each team he pitched for? He pitched only for South Bend (Cubs A Ball) and Kannapolis (Sox A Ball). 1-10 win/loss record, 22 starts.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 12:31 PM)
You are not reading this right. Are you adding the "2017 total" line to the lines for each team he pitched for? He pitched only for South Bend (Cubs A Ball) and Kannapolis (Sox A Ball). 1-10 win/loss record, 22 starts.

 

 

Yep you are right. I doubled everything. 93 innings, 1-10 record. But great era and incredible K rate.

 

Your point is worth merit, bring him along slowly ... also no need to push him next year anyway. I don't think the Sox window opens until 2020, though they should be hella fun.

 

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 11:00 AM)
Much like Michael Kopech last year, he needs to get to 150 innings before we start talking about him being a major leaguer.

Yeah, to me he needs to hit that in the minors before we worry about bringing him up. Since they say you shouldn't increase a pitcher's innings more than 50% year over year, this year we are probably shooting for him pitching a strong ~130 innings (more if he keeps the pitch count low, less if he can't). That would put him on track to pitch a solid chunk of 2019 at AAA and then maybe come up in the bullpen or for some starts at the end of the year. 2020 is really when we should look for him to be a real part of the rotation.

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If he comes up late in 2019, he very well could/would also be hitting new highs in innings pitched in a season. I would expect caution and either low pitch count starts and or a relief role with at least two -three days off between appearances.

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 02:29 PM)
Close? Probably not very, and doesn't need to be.

 

However, I f***ing loved what I saw this spring. The guy was filthy. I'm hoping he comes up in May of 2020.

Seconded

 

Can't wait to see this guy join Kopech, Giolito, Lopez, and Hansen

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QUOTE (mac9001 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 02:45 PM)
People put way too much stock into spring training. He's got a long way to go. But I expect he'll be in AA at some point this year.

 

I think for the prospects it's the first time a lot get to see em in person. For hitters I think it can be misleading (courtney hawkins 2015 spring training), but man, having not really seen Cease's stuff before - it was exciting.

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QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 01:36 PM)
Closer than I expected. He might be closer than Hansen or Dunning.

 

this. He looked fantastic this spring. But like previously stated...he needs to be stretched out innings wise. But very hard not to get excited about having him...

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 03:25 PM)
Hansen has an outside chance of being in Chicago at some point this year. Neither Cease or Dunning really do.

 

Hansen *did*, I doubt they'd push him that aggressively considering the forearm now.

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QUOTE (mac9001 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 12:45 PM)
People put way too much stock into spring training. He's got a long way to go. But I expect he'll be in AA at some point this year.

With pitchers you can at least get an idea about how good the "stuff" is. Obviously a lot more to succeeding at the big league level, but I look more at young pitchers "stuff" during spring training than anything else. Whether they have good results or bad results, less important...the kid is young and obviously has a lot of things to work on, but nice to see when they show that the stuff plays at least.

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