How the Sox are trying to perfect tanking

[bmags]

The Marlins and Indians did the same thing at least twice. Now at least three times in Miami.

 

The A?€™s have been cycling through tanks over and over again.

 

The Twins...the Padres, many examples. Otoh, without the Shields deal, the White Sox have the lowest payroll in baseball by $10 million and clearly the #1 farm system with up to five superstars or at least All-Star caliber talents in the system (Jimenez, Tatis, Kopech, Robert, Hansen, Cease...and, if you squint hard enough, Collins because of the dearth of legit catching prospects, or Micker Adolfo).

 

So the unique differentiating point is teams like the Cubs and Astros based rebuild on hitting/positional prospects moreso than the Sox approach of pitching first.

 

 

I think he tried to wiggle out of the marlins/indians examples because those were driven by costs.

[caulfield12]

I think he tried to wiggle out of the marlins/indians examples because those were driven by costs.

 

Isnt that at least somewhat true for us, too? The White Sox were not willing to put out a $150-175 million payroll with only a non-zero chance of getting back to the playoffs.

 

At the time, that?€™s what it would have taken to overcome post-World Series KC, the rising Indians. Even the Twins had Sano/Buxton/Berrios arriving...and the Tigers?€™ willingness to outspend with Ilitch.

Edited April 2, 2018 by caulfield12

[bmags]

Isnt that at least somewhat true for us, too? The White Sox were not willing to put out a $150-175 million payroll with only a non-zero chance of getting back to the playoffs.

 

At the time, that?€™s what it would have taken to overcome post-World Series KC, the rising Indians. Even the Twins had Sano/Buxton/Berrios arriving...and the Tigers?€™ willingness to outspend with Ilitch.

 

It's somewhat true but moreso I'd say the sox need of filling in depth with veteran contracts was not an efficient use of their modest budget.

 

Compare that to an actual sell-off with the Marlins. The sox for example held onto QUintana for the right time, whereas the marlins needed to move off stanton to get to a payroll threshold.

[caulfield12]

It's somewhat true but moreso I'd say the sox need of filling in depth with veteran contracts was not an efficient use of their modest budget.

 

Compare that to an actual sell-off with the Marlins. The sox for example held onto QUintana for the right time, whereas the marlins needed to move off stanton to get to a payroll threshold.

 

They would have had to sell high/er on Yelich, Dee Gordon, Realmuto, Ozuna...at least one year earlier. Or auctioning Stanton off before he got that immense deal.

 

Jose Fernandez’s premature death really rattled Loria, from everything you read.

 

It’s also why the Royals’ path post Yordano Ventura makes even less sense (feels like Moore can’t afford another full rebuild with the fans.)

 

 

[caulfield12]

It's somewhat true but moreso I'd say the sox need of filling in depth with veteran contracts was not an efficient use of their modest budget.

 

Compare that to an actual sell-off with the Marlins. The sox for example held onto QUintana for the right time, whereas the marlins needed to move off stanton to get to a payroll threshold.

 

They would have had to sell high/er on Yelich, Dee Gordon, Realmuto, Ozuna...at least one year earlier. Or auctioning Stanton off before he got that immense deal.

 

Jose Fernandez’s premature death really rattled Loria, from everything you read.

 

It’s also why the Royals’ path post Yordano Ventura makes even less sense (feels like Moore can’t afford another full rebuild with the fans.)

 

 

[Wanne]

https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/mlb/...cubs-astros#top

 

One of the best Sox articles I've seen written in years

 

Warning: Its very long.

 

that was fantastic! thanks for posting!

[jenksycat]

The Marlins and Indians did the same thing at least twice. Now at least three times in Miami.

 

The A’s have been cycling through tanks over and over again. The Rays?

 

The Twins...the Padres, many examples. Otoh, without the Shields deal, the White Sox have the lowest payroll in baseball by $10 million and clearly the #1 farm system with up to five superstars or at least All-Star caliber talents in the system (Jimenez, Tatis, Kopech, Robert, Hansen, Cease...and, if you squint hard enough, Collins because of the dearth of legit catching prospects, or Micker Adolfo).

 

So the unique differentiating point is teams like the Cubs and Astros based rebuild on hitting/positional prospects moreso than the Sox approach of pitching first.

 

Of course, we’ve already taken hits there...Rodon injuries and inconsistency (compared to say a Bryant, Correa or Lindor)...Burdi injured...Giolito looking more like Gavin Floyd than a true frontline ace (still a net win) due to a dropoff in velocity...otoh, Cease looks more and more legit everyday. Let’s not forget Fulmer is also FAR from a sure thing. And then you have the Burger, Robert and Adolfo injuries. Not quite the linear path those two teams followed (Cubs/Astros), but undoubtedly faster to get back to competitive team, too.

 

Financially, we might be in the best division to overtake rivals as well...over the long-term. The Padres do everything right, still have the Dodgers in their path, for example. Maybe NL East post Harper is equal opportunity for Braves and Phillies?

 

The difference: None of those teams had ELITE chips to trade (sans the Marlins who just had a flat-out we don't care sell everyone sale because they're scumbags). That's the only reason the Sox may have a couple year turn around.

[FloydBannister1983]

It's rebuilding correctly which this organization has never done before

 

Jack McDowell and Robin Ventura and Frank Thomas and Alex Fernandez and Jason Bere beg to differ.

[Bob Sacamano]

The White Sox had big, cheap assets to sell. The rebuild would take forever if they were just depending on the draft, and June 2 signings. Fulmer, Collins, Burger, those were the guys losing got you. If not for Sale, Eaton and Q, the Sox rebuild might take 10 years. It's really a rebuild like no other, maybe the Marlins currently, but they got nowhere near the return for Stanton because he wasn't cheap.

 

This x1000000

[illinilaw08]

What will be interesting to me is that this is mainly pitching driven, and not position player driven in terms of the talent they have acquired. Hopefully the volatility of pitching is overcome by the Sox ability to scout and develop pitching. We are still fairly thin in quality positional talent in the system for a team that wants to be a world champ in short time.

 

I disagree that this has been mainly pitching driven. I'm lumping Robert into this because he fits the timeframe, and I'm limiting this to the main pieces in the big trades.

 

Sale - Moncada, Kopech

Eaton - Gio, Lopez

Q - Eloy, Cease

Robertson, et al. - Rutherford

FA - Robert

 

So that's a pretty even split on pitching vs. hitting on the acquisition side, and it trends to hitting when you add in the last 2 drafts.

 

I see the point that the organization is still thin on position talent, but compared to where the position talent in the system was pre-Sale trade, it's astronomically better. There's definitely a greater margin for error on the pitching side, and the rebuild really needs Moncada/Eloy/Robert to all hit. But I just don't see the narrative that this is a pitching driven talent accumulation.

[southsider2k5]

I disagree that this has been mainly pitching driven. I'm lumping Robert into this because he fits the timeframe, and I'm limiting this to the main pieces in the big trades.

 

Sale - Moncada, Kopech

Eaton - Gio, Lopez

Q - Eloy, Cease

Robertson, et al. - Rutherford

FA - Robert

 

So that's a pretty even split on pitching vs. hitting on the acquisition side, and it trends to hitting when you add in the last 2 drafts.

 

I see the point that the organization is still thin on position talent, but compared to where the position talent in the system was pre-Sale trade, it's astronomically better. There's definitely a greater margin for error on the pitching side, and the rebuild really needs Moncada/Eloy/Robert to all hit. But I just don't see the narrative that this is a pitching driven talent accumulation.

 

Considering the way that a roster and the game is made up the tilt SHOULD be heavily towards position players, and not even. We did the whole pitching heavy with a couple of star hitters thing, and it flopped.

[caulfield12]

Considering the way that a roster and the game is made up the tilt SHOULD be heavily towards position players, and not even. We did the whole pitching heavy with a couple of star hitters thing, and it flopped.

 

Unless the starter surplus goes into a Top Five pen.

 

Good luck building that through free agency with the numbers this offseason. We already tried with Dotel, Linebrink and then Robertson to mixed success.

[hi8is]

I’m obviously the minority here but that article wasn’t insightful one bit unless you’re a casual fan who’s been living under a rock since 2016.

[southsider2k5]

Unless the starter surplus goes into a Top Five pen.

 

Good luck building that through free agency with the numbers this offseason. We already tried with Dotel, Linebrink and then Robertson to mixed success.

 

Given how much usage each one kids, we should absolutely be considering there is large diminishing marginal return on pitching just because you only have so many starters, and bullpen pitchers are going to be typically between 50 and 70 innings out of 1500ish per season. Position players play WAY more of those innings and should be the top target. They also have a much lower fail rate than pitchers do.

[Chisoxfn]

This x1000000

And it is why I don't see "tanking" being a long-term big issue in baseball. You flat out don't get magically better based upon a couple years of draft picks. Baseball's draft and the way the game works is just so so much different than basketball. Basketball has a tanking problem...baseball might have too many teams trying to rebuild at the moment, but I don't think it has a "tanking" problem. I never have viewed the Sox rebuild strategy as being highly contingent on them getting a top X pick...now I do think the rebuilding strategy is aided by good drafting, but I think good teams draft well and how high you pick doesn't have near the correlation it does in other sports (not to mention in baseball..it is so hard for one player to carry a team...case in point, Mike Trout).

 

I do think we will see many teams "humbled" by how difficult it is to tank/rebuild because everyone thinks because the Cubs / Astros did it, it is just so easy. The reality is that it isn't and older, more veteran players are the new "moneyball" as they have ultimately been devalued for the much more attractive, cost controlled young player? Just my two cents...we'll see longer term if I'm right.

[Bananarchy]

They should have called this "Why Greg was Wrong"

 

The last couple of paragraphs are a more like fan fiction, but not by any means out of the realm of possibilities.

 

Edit: Also, is someone going to tell Rany Jazayerli that the Soxtalk banner was really the reason this rebuild has been so successful?

Edited April 2, 2018 by Sox-35th

[jenksycat]

And it is why I don't see "tanking" being a long-term big issue in baseball. You flat out don't get magically better based upon a couple years of draft picks. Baseball's draft and the way the game works is just so so much different than basketball. Basketball has a tanking problem...baseball might have too many teams trying to rebuild at the moment, but I don't think it has a "tanking" problem. I never have viewed the Sox rebuild strategy as being highly contingent on them getting a top X pick...now I do think the rebuilding strategy is aided by good drafting, but I think good teams draft well and how high you pick doesn't have near the correlation it does in other sports (not to mention in baseball..it is so hard for one player to carry a team...case in point, Mike Trout).

 

I do think we will see many teams "humbled" by how difficult it is to tank/rebuild because everyone thinks because the Cubs / Astros did it, it is just so easy. The reality is that it isn't and older, more veteran players are the new "moneyball" as they have ultimately been devalued for the much more attractive, cost controlled young player? Just my two cents...we'll see longer term if I'm right.

 

Yeah it's completely different in baseball. Only sport IMO where outlooks can change season to season and anything can happen in the playoffs.

 

Football: If you don't luck into an elite QB OR a decent qb + dominant defense, no point in even playing

Basketball: If you don't have (several) top 10 players on the team, no point in even playing

 

I have no idea what they're doing to do to fix that, it's made baseball the only sport worth caring about for me.

[Bananarchy]

Yeah it's completely different in baseball. Only sport IMO where outlooks can change season to season and anything can happen in the playoffs.

 

Football: If you don't luck into an elite QB OR a decent qb + dominant defense, no point in even playing

Basketball: If you don't have (several) top 10 players on the team, no point in even playing

 

I have no idea what they're doing to do to fix that, it's made baseball the only sport worth caring about for me.

Football isn't that bad. You can find a game-changer in the NFL in the first, second, third, or even fourth round sometimes.

 

Basketball is downright horrible. The Bulls are too good to be bad enough to be good again. The system is totally broken. The NBA makes for good show, but that's about it.

[jenksycat]

Football isn't that bad. You can find a game-changer in the NFL in the first, second, third, or even fourth round sometimes.

 

Basketball is downright horrible. The Bulls are too good to be bad enough to be good again. The system is totally broken. The NBA makes for good show, but that's about it.

 

While true for football to find talent deep into drafts....its still too lopsided to a single player in the QB. You need an incredible defense to get by with anything less than above average QB...and you have to get all that winning done before you have to pay that elite QB who saps all your cap money.

[Dam8610]

While true for football to find talent deep into drafts....its still too lopsided to a single player in the QB. You need an incredible defense to get by with anything less than above average QB...and you have to get all that winning done before you have to pay that elite QB who saps all your cap money.

 

The teams that sustain success in football (without cheating) get an elite QB, pay that elite QB well, acquire good talent to put around him mostly through the draft, then keep the players they draft that are worth keeping. Usually the best teams have a few players that they drafted that are among the best in the league and are paid like it, and the draft is absolutely vital to sustained success. In baseball it's almost exactly the same.

[Bananarchy]

The teams that sustain success in football (without cheating) get an elite QB, pay that elite QB well, acquire good talent to put around him mostly through the draft, then keep the players they draft that are worth keeping. Usually the best teams have a few players that they drafted that are among the best in the league and are paid like it, and the draft is absolutely vital to sustained success. In baseball it's almost exactly the same.

Yeah. Or they get an elite QB, build around him on a rookie contract, extend him, and struggle to win with a good quarterback taking up too much of their cap.

[jenksycat]

The teams that sustain success in football (without cheating) get an elite QB, pay that elite QB well, acquire good talent to put around him mostly through the draft, then keep the players they draft that are worth keeping. Usually the best teams have a few players that they drafted that are among the best in the league and are paid like it, and the draft is absolutely vital to sustained success. In baseball it's almost exactly the same.

 

Still a single extremely skilled position that you have to crush. You don't NEED a superstar shortstop to win a World Series and can easily mask holes on a roster. Can't hide a s***ty QB

[kitekrazy]

You really can't compare the two.

[Lip Man 1]

Very well done story.

[Dam8610]

Still a single extremely skilled position that you have to crush. You don't NEED a superstar shortstop to win a World Series and can easily mask holes on a roster. Can't hide a s***ty QB

 

Eh, no different than starting pitching, other than that you need at least 3 and more like 4 good ones instead of 1.