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Moncada


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On 4/28/2018 at 10:46 AM, Jose Abreu said:

He and Davidson should be considered but I'm sure it'll be Gregorious or some big market guy

Yep you rarely see mid/small market guys from bad teams get that honor. You have to be head and shoulders above the rest of the competition to get it if you're on a bad team

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36 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's going to be be interesting where he ranks on FGs "Trade Value" list this year.  Moncada was #41 and sale #21 last year.  I'd expect them to flip this year.  Sale might fall off the list completely.

Why would he fall off?  I think he is headed for a big season again.  He is putting up pretty good numbers early with I think poor run support.  

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5 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

Why would he fall off?  I think he is headed for a big season again.  He is putting up pretty good numbers early with I think poor run support.  

Because he only has 1 more season of control after this one. 

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13 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Moncada currently has the highest WAR in Chicago.

Ive been talking a lot of shit on Facebook to cubs fans about how he's the best player in Chicago now. He better keep this up. 

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3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Moncada currently has the highest WAR in Chicago.

And the scary thing is he has a ton of room for improvement still. Moncada's K rate is currently 37.6% and he has an .882 OPS. If you reduced his K rate to 20% and gave him roughly average results for him across those plate appearances (22 PA 8 H 3 2B 1 HR 3 BB), his line would be .351/.440/.667, which shows how important it is for him to cut that K rate down and how ridiculously well he's performed offensively when not striking out.

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1 hour ago, flavum said:

Multiply Moncada’s numbers by 6. Astounding.

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that Moncada cutting his K rate significantly has a much higher likelihood than him having a 1.636 batting average, considering it's impossible to average 1.636 hits per at bat.

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8 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that Moncada cutting his K rate significantly has a much higher likelihood than him having a 1.636 batting average, considering it's impossible to average 1.636 hits per at bat.

Do you know what cha-tah means?

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10 hours ago, flavum said:

Multiply Moncada’s numbers by 6. Astounding.

Sweet Moses.  Is there a chart somewhere that shows Babip compared to exit velocity the last few years?  It seems obvious that the guys that hit it the hardest find more holes in the defense but I’d love to look at it nonetheless!

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1 hour ago, zisk said:

Could we be looking at the next Joe Morgan but with a little more power?

If so, we could win the Sale trade without any other players.

If this is the real Moncada, then the Sale trade is already won. Kopech and Basabe could completely bust and it wouldn't make a difference.

 

6 years of a top 20 player in baseball, who plays every day, is already much more valuable than 3 years of a dominant starting pitcher.

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Looked like he was trying to go oppo against the flame thrower late and just didn't make good contact.  Still it was encouraging to see him battle and not strike out.  

I don't know if he can maintain a 140 wRC+ with a 37% K rate but it's going to be a fascinating watch.  

Would have liked to see him make that tough play up the middle last night but like TA sometimes he rushes when his athleticism gives him more time then he realizes.  You would think that's something that will come with repetition.

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13 hours ago, flavum said:

Multiply Moncada’s numbers by 6. Astounding.

102 R, 48 2Bs, 6 3Bs, 36 HRs, 90 RBIs, 24 SBs, 84 BBs, 282 Ks, .273/.355/882.

It would be amazing, and possibly the most absurd stat line in baseball history. I know I'll have crow to eat, and I'm fine with that- I just really want to see that K-rate drop hard, because even without the natural improvement that will come with more contact, those other numbers equal MVP candidate.

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4 hours ago, The Sir said:

102 R, 48 2Bs, 6 3Bs, 36 HRs, 90 RBIs, 24 SBs, 84 BBs, 282 Ks, .273/.355/882.

It would be amazing, and possibly the most absurd stat line in baseball history. I know I'll have crow to eat, and I'm fine with that- I just really want to see that K-rate drop hard, because even without the natural improvement that will come with more contact, those other numbers equal MVP candidate.

That's also 750 PA. 500 PA right now would be his numbers times 4.

Edited by Dam8610
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45 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

That's also 750 PA. 500 PA right now would be his numbers times 4.

Why are you assuming he'll only get 500 PA? Of course, injuries are always a concern, but if he stays healthy and is generally in the leadoff spot, he should get somewhere from 700-750.

Edited by Jose Abreu
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4 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Why are you assuming he'll only get 500 PA? Of course, injuries are always a concern, but if he stays healthy and is generally in the leadoff spot, he should get somewhere from 700-750.

One thing about Yoan so far in his career -- he posts, just like his idol Cano.  They have so much in common.  But, like Robbie said the other week -- Moncada has got the speed and explosion Robbie never did.  In theory, the upside for Yoan glove wise is elite 2B whereas with Robbie he was never much more than average.

Here's hoping the kid can stay healthy.

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I just stumbled on this and it's pretty amazing, some random Fangraphs, roto oriented profile of Yoan from last year:

 We can see that the profile of below average contact isn’t quite the negative it appears to be for Amed Rosario, when above average exit velocity also part of the profile. Does that mean that Moncada is turns things around immediately, absolutely not.

Oddly enough, the name that comes up most frequently on similar seasons to Moncada is Ryan Howard. I say oddly only because my perception is that if you are visiting Fangraphs, comparisons to Howard likely don’t invoke much confidence. However, given that athleticism is not an issue for Moncada, and this comparison is only based on offensive value, this would be an extremely favorable outcome. 9 Ryan Howard seasons meet the criteria we have outlined above. The next closest players are Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Pena, both with 6 seasons. Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds each have 5 similar seasons.

Perhaps this is a further indication of the oddities of Yoan Moncada, these players are all power first corner players (mostly 1B with the exception of Stanton). However, Moncada possess athletic ability that surpasses nearly all of his offensive comparables. 

Dude pretty much nailed it before Yoan played more than a few dozen games in the bigs.  He's an incredibly unique talent and profile in the new three true outcome era.  

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2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

One thing about Yoan so far in his career -- he posts, just like his idol Cano.  They have so much in common.  But, like Robbie said the other week -- Moncada has got the speed and explosion Robbie never did.  In theory, the upside for Yoan glove wise is elite 2B whereas with Robbie he was never much more than average.

Here's hoping the kid can stay healthy.

Cano hasn’t typically been a huge BB% guy (especially in his younger days) and has posted below average K-rates for his career.

Really, aside from being 2B’s with power they don’t have a ton in common. Their swings look alike, but that doesn’t have much to do with who they are as a player. 

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Moncada has now played 81 games with the White Sox. Half a season. These are his numbers...

 

.246 AVG, 14 HR, 16 2B, 3 3B, 37 RBI, 7 SB, 43 BB, 121 K, .344 OBP, .797 OPS, 116 OPS+, 2.4 WAR

Extrapolate those out to a full year, you're talking almost 30 HR, 86 walks, 32 doubles, 14 SB, and a 4.8 WAR. 

And mind you, all those numbers are trending UP. 2/3's of those rates are from 2017. He's been much better in 2018 in all regards, except strikeouts. He has a decent chance to beat those extrapolated numbers for his 2018 season, and that won't be 162 games either, probably around 145-150.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 5/3/2018 at 12:14 AM, Blackout Friday said:

Cano hasn’t typically been a huge BB% guy (especially in his younger days) and has posted below average K-rates for his career.

Really, aside from being 2B’s with power they don’t have a ton in common. Their swings look alike, but that doesn’t have much to do with who they are as a player. 

thank you

comps are use-less ?? ???

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