Moncada

[iamshack]

I'm not sure that we're confusing a good eye for complete lack of pitch recognition. He might be a patient hitter, but he looks at strike 3 way too much for me to believe that. If he was taking them and they were borderline calls that were going against him, I'd tend to agree. He's taking hangers and fastballs that are excellent pitches to hit for strike 3; pitches that cross in the heart of the strike zone.

That’s fair, he does take his fair share of strike 3’s. I honestly don’t know if he’s looking for one pitch and not getting it, or if he does have poor pitch recognition, as opposed to strike zone recognition. He has had his fair share of lousy calls, IMHO, but the goal is to get some more hits before he even gets to two strike counts. A lot of hitters are going to be less effective in two strike counts. First step is to start doing more damage before he gets in those counts.

[bmags]

I'm not sure that we're confusing a good eye for complete lack of pitch recognition. He might be a patient hitter, but he looks at strike 3 way too much for me to believe that. If he was taking them and they were borderline calls that were going against him, I'd tend to agree. He's taking hangers and fastballs that are excellent pitches to hit for strike 3; pitches that cross in the heart of the strike zone.

 

Todd Steverson touched on this when discussing Yoan in the Athletic:

"“It’s there,” hitting coach Todd Steverson said of Moncada's pitch recognition. “You can recognize it, but is it a strike? There’s recognition and there’s recognition of a strike. I think that’s where some people get mistaken. His recognition is good, but recognition of what? Recognition of strike or recognition of pitch and strike? Or recognition of a ball? When I talk about recognition, I don’t talk about being able to see ‘Oh that’s a slider,’ I mean ‘That’s a slider for a ball,’ and I’m able to stop or ‘That’s a slider for a strike’ and I’m able to swing. Those are totally different things.

 

“He’s good at recognizing the pitch and now it’s just a matter of height. That’s the next piece of it.”"

 

https://theathletic.com/312574/2018/04/13/w...s-at-the-plate/

[Jack Parkman]

That’s fair, he does take his fair share of strike 3’s. I honestly don’t know if he’s looking for one pitch and not getting it, or if he does have poor pitch recognition, as opposed to strike zone recognition. He has had his fair share of lousy calls, IMHO, but the goal is to get some more hits before he even gets to two strike counts. A lot of hitters are going to be less effective in two strike counts. First step is to start doing more damage before he gets in those counts.

Also he tends to get behind in the count a lot because he's taking good pitches to hit for strikes early as well. Hopefully a lightbulb comes on in his head and he puts it all together, but he looks completely lost currently.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

I agree Balta, I don't think he was ready last year and I don't think he is now either. I'd like to see him go to Charlotte and completely destroy AAA before getting called up again .

 

Wow. The kid will be 23 years old next month. He is as ready as he will ever be. He has nothing left to learn in the minors. It's time for him to take his lumps with the big boys.

 

 

[iamshack]

Also he tends to get behind in the count a lot because he's taking good pitches to hit for strikes early as well. Hopefully a lightbulb comes on in his head and he puts it all together, but he looks completely lost currently.

That was the entire point of my first post. He needs to adjust to the League grooving pitches in first pitch and instead pounce on those.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

And the reason has nothing to do with him being a "can't-miss prospect"

 

Those names you listed off were all highly rated prospects that ended up hitting. The scouts were right.

 

You say Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa, and I'll give you Ben Grieve, Corey Patterson, Brandon Wood, Lastings Milledge...all "can't miss" at some point in their minor league career.

 

Prospects can ALWAYS miss.

 

Brandon Wood and Lastings Milledge were never "can't miss". Dudes werent even drafted in the top 10.

 

Ben Grieve and Corey Patterson both had decent mlb careers but underperformed expectations.

 

Can't miss prospects do exist. They are just extremely rare.

 

 

[Buehrle>Wood]

I dont know why you would have to be drafted in the top 10 to be a cant miss process. Jason Heyward for example wouldn't fit that criteria but he was definitely cant miss. Same for Trout.

[soxfan49]

I dont know why you would have to be drafted in the top 10 to be a cant miss process. Jason Heyward for example wouldn't fit that criteria but he was definitely cant miss. Same for Trout.

Albert Pujols wasn't cant-miss!

[michelangelosmonkey]

I also think its time to point out that Fernando Tatis Jr, after 100 at bats in AA (2017/18) is hitting under .240, with 31 strikeouts, three walks and seven errors. Can we finally concede he's a total bust? I think the rebuild is much easier when we can draw long term conclusions after a couple of dozen games.

[peppers312]

26 K's is a bit concerning.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

I'm sorry, what round was Moncada drafted in?

 

Ha. Did you see what Boston paid to sign him?

[fathom]

That was the entire point of my first post. He needs to adjust to the League grooving pitches in first pitch and instead pounce on those.

 

Agreed, if you know you're struggling to hit anything offspeed, you better be aggressive when you see a fastball.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

I dont know why you would have to be drafted in the top 10 to be a cant miss process. Jason Heyward for example wouldn't fit that criteria but he was definitely cant miss. Same for Trout.

 

Because my my point was that can't miss prospects are very rare. Some people said they don't exist at all. I disagreed with that saying guys like Harper, Bryant, and Correa were can't miss. Being drafted out of the top ten means the initial scouts already missed on you.

 

 

 

I shouldn't be surprised I guess. Some dude argued with me that Moncada is playing better than Albies right now.

 

Let's hope Moncada figures out how to reduce his K rate and hits better. That is something we can all agree on.

 

 

[Dunt]

Couple of things in regards to Moncada's batted ball data:

 

-His Z-Contact% and Contact% are basically the same as last year

-He's hitting the ball much harder this year, he jumped from 36% last year to 51.9% this year

-Biggest differences from last season are that he's seeing a 10% increase in first pitch strikes and a 12% decrease in contact outside the zone

 

SSS, but I would expect some positive regression pretty shortly from Moncada. I think the problem so far has been that he is getting in a hole quickly and then going after pitches out of the zone and missing when he is down in the count. I think it really is as simple for him as adjusting his approach a little, but adjustments are usually the struggles of young hitters. Once he realizes that he's going to be seeing the best pitches of the AB early in the count, he will starting attacking more and when the pitcher responds and throws less strikes, that's where his eye will be important. I'm frustrated like everyone else, but his batted ball data tells me a lot about what's going right now IMO.

[BFirebird]

Couple of things in regards to Moncada's batted ball data:

 

-His Z-Contact% and Contact% are basically the same as last year

-He's hitting the ball much harder this year, he jumped from 36% last year to 51.9% this year

-Biggest differences from last season are that he's seeing a 10% increase in first pitch strikes and a 12% decrease in contact outside the zone

 

SSS, but I would expect some positive regression pretty shortly from Moncada. I think the problem so far has been that he is getting in a hole quickly and then going after pitches out of the zone and missing when he is down in the count. I think it really is as simple for him as adjusting his approach a little, but adjustments are usually the struggles of young hitters. Once he realizes that he's going to be seeing the best pitches of the AB early in the count, he will starting attacking more and when the pitcher responds and throws less strikes, that's where his eye will be important. I'm frustrated like everyone else, but his batted ball data tells me a lot about what's going right now IMO.

This is good stuff here...well done. I agree with everyone it is an approach issue....swing at a few first pitch fastballs, get some hits or at least hard hit balls and pitchers will change their approach and he will get ahead in more counts. He is young, while it is frustrating, the talent is there and I think he will figure it out.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Anyone check out the graphic between Moncada's first 300 + plate appearances and Paulies? Except for whiffs, Moncada's numbers are far superior.

 

Garden tweeted it out yesterday I believe. Moncada absolutely had the better stats (but nearly double the K's). I think it's fair to say that that could be cherry picking, but in the same token it also strongly supports the notion that people are overreacting a bit here and need to have a a little patience with the 22 year old.

[Kyyle23]

[BigHurt3515]

 

That K% difference though...

[Jose Abreu]

That K% difference though...

If it helps, league average K% rose by 5% between this time span

[caulfield12]

728 OPS.

 

Crisis temporarily avoided. (Maybe he needs free giveaway crowds for inspiration.)

[Southwest Sider]

Why does this thread get bumped every time Moncada gets a hit?

 

Anyways, he has easily looked like the best hitter on the Sox in the Oakland series.

[caulfield12]

The same reason it gets bumped when he has multiple strikeout games?

[SoxAce]

The same reason it gets bumped when he has multiple strikeout games?

 

Seems like you have the dubious honor of doing both.

[caulfield12]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/po.../OPS/order/true

 

14th out of 26 qualified 2b in ops (skipped him over Carlos Sanchez, who hasn't played second this year)

13th in war (0.4)

 

ESPN uses bWAR, apparently his fWAR is significantly higher (0.6)

Edited April 18, 2018 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

Since someone already bumped this, Moncada now has a wRC+ of 104, the third highest defensive value amongst qualified 2B, & the third highest baserunning value amongst all qualified hitters. Combined these factors put him at 0.6 WAR on the season or 40th overall for position players. At this rate, Yoan would put up 7 WAR over the course of a full season.

 

And while I’m not actually suggesting he’ll be a 7 WAR player this year, the point remains that Moncada brings a lot to the table in terms of batters eye, power, speed, & defense that he can be an incredibly valuable player despite a high K rate. His floor this year is realistically that of a 3 WAR player and he’ll easily outperform that if he can get K rate more under control.