Moncada

[chitownsportsfan]

On 5/3/2018 at 12:08 AM, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Moncada has now played 81 games with the White Sox. Half a season. These are his numbers...

 

.246 AVG, 14 HR, 16 2B, 3 3B, 37 RBI, 7 SB, 43 BB, 121 K, .344 OBP, .797 OPS, 116 OPS+, 2.4 WAR

Extrapolate those out to a full year, you're talking almost 30 HR, 86 walks, 32 doubles, 14 SB, and a 4.8 WAR. 

And mind you, all those numbers are trending UP. 2/3's of those rates are from 2017. He's been much better in 2018 in all regards, except strikeouts. He has a decent chance to beat those extrapolated numbers for his 2018 season, and that won't be 162 games either, probably around 145-150.

The power this kid has shown has been really impressive, juiced ball or not.  

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, bmags said:

thank you

comps are use-less ?? ???

I just like to compare guys with similar mannerisms and swings.  Moncada is sui generis as a 2B with his skillset.  Perhaps the closest comp would be Ray Durham except with more power.

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

thank you

comps are use-less ?? ???

When talking about a player like Moncada, yes.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I just like to compare guys with similar mannerisms and swings.  Moncada is sui generis as a 2B with his skillset.  Perhaps the closest comp would be Ray Durham except with more power.

With the skill set that Yoan has, there aren't a whole lot of comps.  I mean for the skill set he has, we are talking a ceiling of Ricky Henderson type speed (though no one will ever try to steal 150, or even 100 times in a season again) and game changing ability, though Ricky was a slug of a LF.  Another name that comes to mind is Robbie Alomar.  The combination of speed and power is incredibly rare, especially at second base.  Yoan has a Cano type power ceiling, but Cano has no where near the speed.  Bat speed is where the two also have a lot in common.

[caulfield12]

Has fallen from a 923 OPS on April 26th to a still decent 782 in the last month.

.163 BA and 478 OPS vs. lefties, .286 and 916 OPS vs. RPH

Strikeout percentage down to 32.5%, although the last couple of games haven't helped in that area.

29 walks vs. 74 K's

659 OPS and .228 BA in the month of May (that felt kind of like a worst-case scenario season result in April)

 

I will stay with what I said at the beginning of April when he was struggling out of the gate.  Will be happy with an OPS between 750 and 787.5 for 2018 (age 23 season) and between 787.5 and 825 for 2019 (age 24 season)

That gives you those prime years starting in 2021 when he needs to be an All-Star caliber 2B.   Obviously, he has shown tantalizing glimpses of that so far this year.

[wrathofhahn]

On 5/2/2018 at 12:41 PM, chitownsportsfan said:

Looked like he was trying to go oppo against the flame thrower late and just didn't make good contact.  Still it was encouraging to see him battle and not strike out.  

I don't know if he can maintain a 140 wRC+ with a 37% K rate but it's going to be a fascinating watch.  

Would have liked to see him make that tough play up the middle last night but like TA sometimes he rushes when his athleticism gives him more time then he realizes.  You would think that's something that will come with repetition.

I mean we do kind of know, it's extremely unlikely.

The good thing about his K-rate is eventhough it's high he isn't a free swinger. His OSWING percentage is 24.1 which is more then manageable. What he needs to do more then anything is develop a two strike approach and be smarter about what teams are doing to attack him.

When the count is

1-2 in 31 AB he has a .161 OBP

2-2 in 21 AB he has a .045 OBP.

0-2 in 19 AB he has a .105 OBP

He needs to show he can work from behind the count and grind out at bats. All his other numbers when he's ahead or early are well above ML average.

[oldsox]

44 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

I mean we do kind of know, it's extremely unlikely.

The good thing about his K-rate is eventhough it's high he isn't a free swinger. His OSWING percentage is 24.1 which is more then manageable. What he needs to do more then anything is develop a two strike approach and be smarter about what teams are doing to attack him.

When the count is

1-2 in 31 AB he has a .161 OBP

2-2 in 21 AB he has a .045 OBP.

0-2 in 19 AB he has a .105 OBP

He needs to show he can work from behind the count and grind out at bats. All his other numbers when he's ahead or early are well above ML average.

Wow.  Interesting stats.

[caulfield12]

But how many players have an OBP of above .200 when down 1-2 or 0-2?

I’m guessing the list is quite tiny.

2-2 hitters who can be at least .300 or above,  that would be interesting as well.

Those really aren’t enough at-bats to represent a significant sample size, either.  The 2-2 should come up over time, and he’s always going to be a patient hitter who takes more than his fair share of walks and gets ahead in counts as well, although he had a run there where he was swinging on 1st or 2nd pitches in an at-bat.  Perhaps part of that was an attempt to find the best pitch to drive early in a PA instead of getting down in the count and ending up K’ing?   The K% has definitely come down, even though the batting average and SLG has fallen during the time since his return from the DL.

Edited May 28, 2018 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

I mean we do kind of know, it's extremely unlikely.

The good thing about his K-rate is eventhough it's high he isn't a free swinger. His OSWING percentage is 24.1 which is more then manageable. What he needs to do more then anything is develop a two strike approach and be smarter about what teams are doing to attack him.

When the count is

1-2 in 31 AB he has a .161 OBP

2-2 in 21 AB he has a .045 OBP.

0-2 in 19 AB he has a .105 OBP

He needs to show he can work from behind the count and grind out at bats. All his other numbers when he's ahead or early are well above ML average.

What is league average in those situations?

[wrathofhahn]

46 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What is league average in those situations?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2018#count::none

*Note based on league average hitter of .722 OPS.

To sort of simply things the league average hitter right now has a slash line of 194/203/297/500 when the pitcher is ahead. Moncada 164/164/315/497.

But that sort of isn't the point a lot I want a better future for Moncada then league average. I mean 51% percent of the time he isn't even putting the ball in play.

Edited May 28, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[footlongcomiskeydog]

On 4/25/2018 at 6:25 AM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I have a feeling this post will look quite silly by season’s end. The Albies train is already running out of steam. fWAR down to 0.8 for the season compared to Moncada’s 1.1 and it’s still April...

Looks like Albies didn't get your memo. The kid just continues to produce and is two years younger than Moncada. 

[Jose Abreu]

11 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Looks like Albies didn't get your memo. The kid just continues to produce and is two years younger than Moncada. 

A .718 OPS in May with negative defensive value. He fell off pretty hard relative to where he was. 

[footlongcomiskeydog]

8 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

A .718 OPS in May with negative defensive value. He fell off pretty hard relative to where he was. 

The kid is barely of legal drinking age and is already at 2.0 war on the season. 

[wrathofhahn]

On 5/28/2018 at 8:44 AM, caulfield12 said:

But how many players have an OBP of above .200 when down 1-2 or 0-2?

I’m guessing the list is quite tiny.

2-2 hitters who can be at least .300 or above,  that would be interesting as well.

Those really aren’t enough at-bats to represent a significant sample size, either.  The 2-2 should come up over time, and he’s always going to be a patient hitter who takes more than his fair share of walks and gets ahead in counts as well, although he had a run there where he was swinging on 1st or 2nd pitches in an at-bat.  Perhaps part of that was an attempt to find the best pitch to drive early in a PA instead of getting down in the count and ending up K’ing?   The K% has definitely come down, even though the batting average and SLG has fallen during the time since his return from the DL.

Like I said his K rate is 51% in situations where the pitcher is ahead. League average is around 37%.

Which is why despite his Oswing % being relatively low he's amassing so many K's. He simply needs to readjust his approach in deep counts and shorten his swing.

He's not the first young MLB player to have this problem but if he doesn't get it corrected it will prevent him from being the player we all know he can.

Edited May 29, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[southsider2k5]

Just like last time Yoan slumped this year, I am still buying. 

[wrathofhahn]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Just like last time Yoan slumped this year, I am still buying. 

So am I.

[StateStSports]

Stop hitting right handed.

[BlackSox13]

So is Moncada back to being a bust again? 

 

I can't keep up with the latest trends.

[ChiSox1917]

3 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Like I said his K rate is 51% in situations where the pitcher is ahead. League average is around 37%.

Which is why despite his Oswing % being relatively low he's amassing so many K's. He simply needs to readjust his approach in deep counts and shorten his swing.

He's not the first young MLB player to have this problem but if he doesn't get it corrected it will prevent him from being the player we all know he can.

I think he needs to become a little more aggressive earlier in the counts in order not to fall behind so much.  The book on Yoan right now is to challenge him  early in the count because he's too patient of a hitter.

[chitownsportsfan]

Seems like the injury got him out of his groove at the plate.  He's had some really poor swings the last week, even from the left side.   He's dipping his front shoulder on balls middle out and producing a lot of weak flairs into left and center.

I think he'll get hot again.  He seems like a guy that is going to go through some slumps and some tears in his career, especially when he runs into a stretch like this past week where he's gotta take more at bats right handed.  I have no solutions for his right handed woes other than more reps.   No harm in letting him get every rep he can now.  In a couple years if he's still a 600 OPS guy against LHP then maybe you consider having him drop switch hitting.

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Seems like the injury got him out of his groove at the plate.  He's had some really poor swings the last week, even from the left side.   He's dipping his front shoulder on balls middle out and producing a lot of weak flairs into left and center.

I think he'll get hot again.  He seems like a guy that is going to go through some slumps and some tears in his career, especially when he runs into a stretch like this past week where he's gotta take more at bats right handed.  I have no solutions for his right handed woes other than more reps.   No harm in letting him get every rep he can now.  In a couple years if he's still a 600 OPS guy against LHP then maybe you consider having him drop switch hitting.

Thank you. I'm tired of people citing stats from like a 50 PA sample saying he should bat as a LH against LHP. He needs more time. He's not this bad against LHP. And I doubt he'd be much better as a lefty against LHP. 

[fathom]

46 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Thank you. I'm tired of people citing stats from like a 50 PA sample saying he should bat as a LH against LHP. He needs more time. He's not this bad against LHP. And I doubt he'd be much better as a lefty against LHP. 

He was bad against LHP last year also. He's a .195 career hitter vs LHP with 2 homers in 117 at bats. 

[ptatc]

5 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Like I said his K rate is 51% in situations where the pitcher is ahead. League average is around 37%.

Which is why despite his Oswing % being relatively low he's amassing so many K's. He simply needs to readjust his approach in deep counts and shorten his swing.

He's not the first young MLB player to have this problem but if he doesn't get it corrected it will prevent him from being the player we all know he can.

I don't think many hitters do that anymore. Most of the hitters today swing for the fences on all counts. It's all about slugging %.

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, fathom said:

He was bad against LHP last year also. He's a .195 career hitter vs LHP with 2 homers in 117 at bats. 

They should wait at least until he has a full season of RH at bats before they think of significant changes. Think about a player with only 117 at bats for their career, that's nothing.

[Jose Abreu]

55 minutes ago, fathom said:

He was bad against LHP last year also. He's a .195 career hitter vs LHP with 2 homers in 117 at bats. 

Call me when he gets to 500