Moncada

[greg775]

5 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

So is Moncada back to being a bust again? 

 

I can't keep up with the latest trends.

I don't know why folks are sweating his day to day battles, good and/or bad. He's doing fine and he's going to be a great hitter if he's not one already. A lot of you disagree, but it's probably not easy to be focused when you play for a team this bad. Mentally you'd think he and all Sox have given away a lot of at bats since the team has been blown out so much. He's a good hitter. Why sweat it?

[Jerksticks]

2 hours ago, fathom said:

He was bad against LHP last year also. He's a .195 career hitter vs LHP with 2 homers in 117 at bats. 

Platoon him for sure

[caulfield12]

Had to be bumped...he hasn't been the same player since he came back from the hammy injury. Or there's a good reason every home plate umpire is out to screw him over, and Renteria's not backing him up.

As far as mechanics, he's definitely flying open and losing track of the flight of the ball...lots of K's and weak contact (except for the bomb to straightaway center in MIN), high number of K's, few walks (umps not helping there), and he's also made a number of key defensive miscues in the past couple of weeks as well that have proved costly.

Batting from the RH side against LHP has been even more of a mess.  Not sure where he goes from here, and where he eventually bottoms out.

Right now he's at a 719 OPS.  That's acceptable if you're Brian Anderson in 2005, but not in today's game.

Edited June 12, 2018 by caulfield12

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

44 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Had to be bumped...he hasn't been the same player since he came back from the hammy injury. Or there's a good reason every home plate umpire is out to screw him over, and Renteria's not backing him up.

As far as mechanics, he's definitely flying open and losing track of the flight of the ball...lots of K's and weak contact (except for the bomb to straightaway center in MIN), high number of K's, few walks (umps not helping there), and he's also made a number of key defensive miscues in the past couple of weeks as well that have proved costly.

Batting from the RH side against LHP has been even more of a mess.  Not sure where he goes from here, and where he eventually bottoms out.

Right now he's at a 719 OPS.  That's acceptable if you're Brian Anderson in 2005, but not in today's game.

He's still just 23 and learning how to overcome Major-League-level struggles. He overcame it earlier in the year before the hammy sidelined him. Give him time, we all need to have confidence he'll get back into form. I think a lot of us are placing high expectations for Yoan to emerge as the Sox version of Bryant or Altuve. Not everyone turns into a superstar overnight. At least he has shown flashes of his potential this year between the struggles.

[SoxAce]

He should've had a basehit tonight batting right handed if Perez doesn't get his glove on it (in fact his swing was way better in that AB than any he had lefty tonight) but hey don't let facts get in the way...

[chitownsportsfan]

he sucks cut him.

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

He should've had a basehit tonight batting right handed if Perez doesn't get his glove on it (in fact his swing was way better in that AB than any he had lefty tonight) but hey don't let facts get in the way...

One base hit against a LHP or even if the ball against Kimbrel dropped in LF doesn't change the overall direction since returning from the hammy...after he hit that leadoff homer in Minnesota, he was still at a more than acceptable 782 OPS.

He has almost fallen off a cliff.   Walks and power are way down, too.

[fathom]

He just needs to stop guessing. Why look for offspeed pitch when you can't hit it and take fastballs down the plate?  This is where having a strong coaching staff would also help.

[spiderman]

Clearly too early to write him off, but this is VERY concerning. To date, he's not an impact player. Having tons of potential is great, but is it possible the White Sox got hoodwinked on the best prospect in baseball?

[Jose Abreu]

12 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

One base hit against a LHP or even if the ball against Kimbrel dropped in LF doesn't change the overall direction since returning from the hammy...after he hit that leadoff homer in Minnesota, he was still at a more than acceptable 782 OPS.

 He has almost fallen off a cliff.   Walks and power are way down, too.

I like OPS but I feel like you use it too often, or misuse it at times. It's a stat that, at this point in the season, is very heavily skewed by an event such as one home run. Therefore, if someone hits a home run and then doesn't hit another one for awhile, it's obvious that his OPS is gonna drop. 

 

It's a good stat to use at the end of seasons or with a lot of sample size, but judging a player based on fluctuations in the stat at this point in the season may not be taking advantage of its intended purpose. 

[chitownsportsfan]

People over react to 30 game stretches that's for sure.  Good and bad.  

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I like OPS but I feel like you use it too often, or misuse it at times. It's a stat that, at this point in the season, is very heavily skewed by an event such as one home run. Therefore, if someone hits a home run and then doesn't hit another one for awhile, it's obvious that his OPS is gonna drop. 

 

It's a good stat to use at the end of seasons or with a lot of sample size, but judging a player based on fluctuations in the stat at this point in the season may not be taking advantage of its intended purpose. 

It's also confirmed by the fall from a 1.6 fWAR to 1.2 before tonight's game...

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

It's also confirmed by the fall from a 1.6 fWAR to 1.2 before tonight's game...

Yeah, I'm not saying that he hasn't had a bad stretch. It's just that highlighting seemingly crazy variations in OPS isn't as damning as it may seem due to the erratic nature of the stat.

[caulfield12]

wRC+=99 (career)

fWAR 2017=1.1 in 231 PA's

fWAR 2018=1.2 in 246 PA's

2.3 fWAR in 477 PA's (.233 career batting average)

Chris Sale (2017/18)=7.7+2.6 fWAR=10.3 (I only say this because earlier in the thread it was possible to project Sale ending up behind Moncada for the season, which was obviously a bit exuberant)

 

Byron Buxton (the last #1 prospect in baseball)

2015 0.1

2016 1.4

2017 3.5

2018 -0.3

4.7 fWAR total in 1074 PA's (.230 average, 76 wRC+)

 

The last two consensus #1 prospects have almost exact carbon copy fWAR's, although Buxton gets more points for his incredible defense but loses it for his anemic offense (minus a couple of mini-streaks mixed in there)

 

 

Edited June 12, 2018 by caulfield12

[SoxAce]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

People over react to 30 game stretches that's for sure.  Good and bad.  

It's getting ridiculous really.

[caulfield12]

If he had an already established baseline of putting up multiple 5+ fWAR seasons, there wouldn't be much of a reaction around here, sure...agreed.

[ChiSox59]

10 hours ago, spiderman said:

Clearly too early to write him off, but this is VERY concerning. To date, he's not an impact player. Having tons of potential is great, but is it possible the White Sox got hoodwinked on the best prospect in baseball?

Do you watch the games?  His talent is obvious and immense.  Hitting baseballs at the major league level is really hard.  He'll be fine. 

[TaylorStSox]

10 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

If he had an already established baseline of putting up multiple 5+ fWAR seasons, there wouldn't be much of a reaction around here, sure...agreed.

I was thinking of ways to address how bad of a post this is and it's a struggle just to figure out where to start. 

Edited June 12, 2018 by TaylorStSox

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

I was thinking of ways to address how bad of a post this is and it's a struggle just to figure out where to start. 

So how confident are you that Buxton and Moncada are 5+ fWAR players for the foreseeable future?

Buxton can put up a 2.5 on CF defense alone, but he has only done it once so far...

Edited June 12, 2018 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

WTF does Buxton have to do with Yoan Moncada?

Edited June 12, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[caulfield12]

Simple, they are the last two #1 prospects in baseball.

And carry almost the EXACT same fWAR numbers through their brief major league careers, although Buxton has double the number of plate appearances.

Obviously their games are completely different (other than oodles of athleticism), but the perception of many is that Buxton is now at elevated risk of being a bust.

Of course, we are missing the key information here...Moncada’s next 500-600 plate appearances.  He has his K percentage down into the mid 30’s, at least, but the walks and power have disappeared.

And there really is no great player comp for him...Cano crossed with Ryan Howard’s minor league strikeout profile with a little Roberto Alomar mixed in.  

Individually, those comps don’t hold...and then there’s the huge split differences on the RH side to deal with as well.

Edited June 12, 2018 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

You answered my question, thanks.  They have nothing in common except an amorphous, "#1 overall prospect status".  They are nothing alike as players, and oh yea, Buxton has twice as much MLB experience.  Other than that, completely the same.  Good Lord.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

You answered my question, thanks.  They have nothing in common except an amorphous, "#1 overall prospect status".  They are nothing alike as players, and oh yea, Buxton has twice as much MLB experience.  Other than that, completely the same.  Good Lord.

So, once again, how confident are that either Buxton or Moncada are the consistent 5+ fWAR players they have been projected to be over the last 3-4 years?

(Another commonality is that they were both “raw” athletes who have developed from the age of 18/19 at the professional level instead of coming out of college.)

And he will still be compared to Benintendi/Devers for the rest of his career...and Sale, to a lesser extent.

Edited June 12, 2018 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

So, once again, how confident are that either Buxton or Moncada are the consistent 5+ fWAR players they have been projected to be over the last 3-4 years?

(Another commonality is that they were both “raw” athletes who have developed from the age of 18/19 at the professional level instead of coming out of college.)

I have no clue.  I don't know anything about Byron Buxton other than that he's sucked ass for large stretches of his career.

All I know about Yoan Moncada is that he's been very good at times this year  and at times he's been absolutely awful.  This applies to his defense as well.  Add it all up and he's on pace for about 2.5 fWAR -- not awful for a toolsy 23 year old.

I wouldn't bet on ANY player becoming a consistent 5 WAR true talent.  That is a HOF or at very least HOVG career path.   

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I have no clue.  I don't know anything about Byron Buxton other than that he's sucked ass for large stretches of his career.

All I know about Yoan Moncada is that he's been very good at times this year  and at times he's been absolutely awful.  This applies to his defense as well.  Add it all up and he's on pace for about 2.5 fWAR -- not awful for a toolsy 23 year old.

I wouldn't bet on ANY player becoming a consistent 5 WAR true talent.  That is a HOF or at very least HOVG career path.   

Fair enough.

But go back to late April in this thread...there were people projecting a better fWAR than Sale already for season.

Development is never linear for raw Latin American players, but he needs to be closer to a 5 than a 2.5 for this rebuild to actually work, because we already have those guys (1.5-2.5) in Yolmer, Davidson, and maybe Palka/Delmonico, but Timmy and Yoan SHOULD both be in the 3.5-4 range for us to really turn the corner.

Other than Eloy Jimenez, we really don’t have any “sure” things right now on the offensive side (Collins still needs to sustain his numbers through Sept. to be be put in that category.)