Moncada

[Jack Parkman]

The three major pieces in the December 2016 trades all look like crap right now, and I'm talking about Moncada/Kopech/Giolito. If none of those three make it, you can push back the rebuild at least until 2023 and you might as well have Hahn/KW/Hostetler/Director of pro scouting shitcanned. Start over and re-evaluate. This is what everyone was concerned about, including myself, that this front office can't identify talent. We all agreed that a rebuild was the correct course of action, but those who didn't trust this front office look like they might be right. How many players, who have major league experience, and didn't make a major swing/delivery overhaul, suddenly figured out how to hit/pitch after 1200 PA or 400 innings? The number is very few. At that point, what you see is what you get. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The three major pieces in the December 2016 trades all look like crap right now, and I'm talking about Moncada/Kopech/Giolito. If none of those three make it, you can push back the rebuild at least until 2023 and you might as well have Hahn/KW/Hostetler/Director of pro scouting shitcanned. Start over and re-evaluate. This is what everyone was concerned about, including myself, that this front office can't identify talent. We all agreed that a rebuild was the correct course of action, but those who didn't trust this front office look like they might be right. How many players, who have major league experience, and didn't make a major swing/delivery overhaul, suddenly figured out how to hit/pitch after 1200 PA or 400 innings? The number is very few. At that point, what you see is what you get. 

Maybe you should take a breather from White Sox baseball for a few years.  It’s clear you don’t have the patience for a rebuild.

[Jake]

I think Lopez was just as if not more important to the Eaton trade at the time and I suspect he was the one that the Nats were sorriest to see go. I think both teams understood something was wrong with Gio.

[reiks12]

5 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

The three major pieces in the December 2016 trades all look like crap right now, and I'm talking about Moncada/Kopech/Giolito. If none of those three make it, you can push back the rebuild at least until 2023 and you might as well have Hahn/KW/Hostetler/Director of pro scouting shitcanned. Start over and re-evaluate. This is what everyone was concerned about, including myself, that this front office can't identify talent. We all agreed that a rebuild was the correct course of action, but those who didn't trust this front office look like they might be right. How many players, who have major league experience, and didn't make a major swing/delivery overhaul, suddenly figured out how to hit/pitch after 1200 PA or 400 innings? The number is very few. At that point, what you see is what you get. 

lets wait and see how they look in a couple of years

Moncada has shown flashes of tremendous offense and Kopech hasn't pitched in the majors yet. I agree on Gio, but Lopez and Dunning might balance that out

[Lillian]

The Quintana trade is beginning to look like it will have brought back a better package than the Sale deal. Eloy and Cease have out performed Moncada and Kopech.

[Jack Parkman]

23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Maybe you should take a breather from White Sox baseball for a few years.  It’s clear you don’t have the patience for a rebuild.

I definitely have the patience for a rebuild, I'm still cautiously optimistic, but I really don't think that hitters change much after their first 1500 PA and pitchers don't change much after somewhere between 300-500 MLB innings. What gives me hope about Moncada is that he hasn't gone full Buxton. If he was hitting .170 like Buxton has most of his career, then I'd be on high alert, but at his lowest this year he's at .225 and that isn't horrible for a guy scuffling in his first MLB season. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[BlackSox13]

Kopech is 22 with Giolito and Moncada being 23. Not worried, lol.

[Jack Parkman]

13 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

Kopech is 22 with Giolito and Moncada being 23. Not worried, lol.

Honestly I've got more hope for Giolito and Moncada than I do for Kopech. I've always thought he was more likely to be a reliever. Honestly, lately the plate has been four inches bigger for him vs other hitters, and it is kinda hard to evaluate him as a hitter when he's constantly being screwed by horrible home plate umpires.

Edited June 15, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[WBWSF]

42 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The three major pieces in the December 2016 trades all look like crap right now, and I'm talking about Moncada/Kopech/Giolito. If none of those three make it, you can push back the rebuild at least until 2023 and you might as well have Hahn/KW/Hostetler/Director of pro scouting shitcanned. Start over and re-evaluate. This is what everyone was concerned about, including myself, that this front office can't identify talent. We all agreed that a rebuild was the correct course of action, but those who didn't trust this front office look like they might be right. How many players, who have major league experience, and didn't make a major swing/delivery overhaul, suddenly figured out how to hit/pitch after 1200 PA or 400 innings? The number is very few. At that point, what you see is what you get. 

Face reality we're stuck with Hahn and company as long as JR owns the team. Hahn has been the GM for 6 years and the team hasn't had one winning season. Most other MLB owners would have replaced him by now. That unfortunately is not going to happen here.

[Jack Parkman]

Anyone who posts here should know I'm still sky high on Moncada and Giolito, and after thinking about it further, I think the threshold of "they are what they are" is somewhere between 1200-1500 PA and 400-500 IP. Thinking that Moncada/Giolito will still figure it out, while acknowledging that they suck currently are two different and rational thoughts. My whole thing with Kopech is that I think he overthrows and might be better suited being similar to Aroldis Chapman than Verlander. I think there is a 50% chance he's a stud closer, a 30% chance that he's a complete bust and a 20% chance he's an ace. Both Moncada and Giolito are roughly 1/3 of the way to the IP/PA threshold. If they both get 2/3 of the way to the threshold and still suck that is the "get worried" point. The 1/2 point is the really concerned, but not worried quite yet point. I wouldn't get worried about Giolito never figuring it out until he gets to 380 MLB innings, because he's such a project and everyone knew that when he was traded here. I have said this multiple times and it bears repeating, If Giolito wasn't a major project he wouldn't have been available for Adam Eaton. I looked up where both guys are on experience and based on AB+BB Moncada is at 507 MLB PA, and Giolito is at 132 2/3 MLB IP. Both about roughly 1/3 of the maximum threshold, like I said earlier. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[ron883]

14 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

Face reality we're stuck with Hahn and company as long as JR owns the team. Hahn has been the GM for 6 years and the team hasn't had one winning season. Most other MLB owners would have replaced him by now. That unfortunately is not going to happen here.

Want some cheese with your whine bro?

[Y2Jimmy0]

45 minutes ago, Lillian said:

The Quintana trade is beginning to look like it will have brought back a better package than the Sale deal. Eloy and Cease have out performed Moncada and Kopech.

Lets pump the breaks on the pitching part of this. Cease is still in High-A and older than Kopech was in same league. Kopech raced through AA and took names while doing so. Lets see Cease in Birmingham first. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, reiks12 said:

lets wait and see how they look in a couple of years

Moncada has shown flashes of tremendous offense and Kopech hasn't pitched in the majors yet. I agree on Gio, but Lopez and Dunning might balance that out

My point in my first post in this thread was that if Moncada/Kopech/Giolito still look bad toward the end of 2019, Reinsdorf should clean house in the front office, and bring in new management to re-evaluate everything. Hahn, KW and Hostetler should no longer be making scouting decisions at that point. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[footlongcomiskeydog]

10 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sure.  Then there are those who light the world on fire early, and then MLB adjusts. A great example of that is taking a look at Ozzie Albies splits.  He is OPSing on an Adam Engel level for the last month.

Ozzie Albies just hit homers in back to back games this week. The kid is only 21 and is already a better ballplayer than Moncada. 

Moncada was a lot more fun last Summer when he was on top of pretty much every midseason prospect ranking list. He was even ahead of Gleybar Torres on most rankings which seems preposterous now. Too bad that you actually have to play the game and put those #1 "tools" to use. 

[caulfield12]

42 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

My point in my first post in this thread was that if Moncada/Kopech/Giolito still look bad toward the end of 2019, Reinsdorf should clean house in the front office, and bring in new management to re-evaluate everything. Hahn, KW and Hostetler should no longer be making scouting decisions at that point. 

Hostetler shouldn't be considered together with the other two execs.

He's done a very good job and is a breath of fresh air, IMO.   We added Hansen, essentially another high first rounder, in the second round.   Luis Gonzalez looks like a good value pick, and Madrigal was the one I wanted all along.  Collins has definitely come around, he had looked like a lost cause.   Burger and Burdi you can criticize for various reasons, but the Burdi pick was all about adding another elite bullpen arm to the 2016 team, so I'll give him a pass (and many online publications/scouting services still are pretty high on him.)

If you want to talk Hahn, you can talk about the boatload of FA's that have been failures under his tenure or the combined one (reign) with KW as official GM.

That list includes pulling the trigger on Shields/Tatis (blame more on JR or KW?), Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, Moncada/Kopech, Welington Castillo (the abysmal catching situation in general), Courtney Hawkins/Barnum/Trey M., etc.

Hostetler is (much) more responsible for the amateur drafting aspect, and not the end results of the big trades than KW and Hahn have made.

 

 

Edited June 15, 2018 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Hostetler shouldn't be considered together with the other two execs.

He's done a very good job and is a breath of fresh air, IMO.   We added Hansen, essentially another high first rounder, in the second round.   Luis Gonzalez looks like a good value pick, and Madrigal was the one I wanted all along.  Collins has definitely come around, he had looked like a lost cause.   Burger and Burdi you can criticize for various reasons, but the Burdi pick was all about adding another elite bullpen arm to the 2016 team, so I'll give him a pass (and many online publications/scouting services still are pretty high on him.)

If you want to talk Hahn, you can talk about the boatload of FA's that have been failures under his tenure or the combined one (reign) with KW as official GM.

That list includes pulling the trigger on Shields/Tatis (blame more on JR or KW?), Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, Moncada/Kopech, Welington Castillo (the abysmal catching situation in general), Courtney Hawkins/Barnum/Trey M., etc.

Hostetler is (much) more responsible for the amateur drafting aspect, and not the end results of the big trades than KW and Hahn have made.

 

 

Who's the pro scouting director? I thought that was part of Hostetler's responsibility as well. The reason I lumped him in with Hahn/KW is because regardless of the job he's done, (I agree with you about him being a breath of fresh air) I think that if they bring in new management they should bring in their own people. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

Well, Hostetler is definitely director of amateur scouting.

Assistant General Manager	Jeremy Haber
Senior Director of Baseball Operations	Dan Fabian
Director of Team Travel	Ed Cassin
Special Assistant to the Chairman	Dennis Gilbert
Special Assistant to the Senior VP/General Manager	Marco Paddy
Special Assistant to the Senior VP/General Manager	Bill Scherrer
Special Assistant to the Senior VP/General Manager	Jim Thome
Special Assistant to the Senior VP/General Manager	Dave Yoakum
Special Assistant to Baseball Operations	Jose Contreras
Pitching Consultant	Dave Duncan
Major League Advance Scout/Special Instructor	Bryan Little

 

There's not typically a director of "pro scouting" for MLB teams, it's more of a collaborative effort between scouts, KW/Hahn and the three names I've highlighted above.

Before, Buddy Bell was in a somewhat similar position (closest you can get to director of pro scouting), IMO Chris Getz's current position description is slightly different (more about minor league development/evaluation) than Bell's more "consulting" position, like Dave Duncan and Jim Thome.

Edited June 15, 2018 by caulfield12

[ptatc]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Hostetler shouldn't be considered together with the other two execs.

He's done a very good job and is a breath of fresh air, IMO.   We added Hansen, essentially another high first rounder, in the second round.   Luis Gonzalez looks like a good value pick, and Madrigal was the one I wanted all along.  Collins has definitely come around, he had looked like a lost cause.   Burger and Burdi you can criticize for various reasons, but the Burdi pick was all about adding another elite bullpen arm to the 2016 team, so I'll give him a pass (and many online publications/scouting services still are pretty high on him.)

If you want to talk Hahn, you can talk about the boatload of FA's that have been failures under his tenure or the combined one (reign) with KW as official GM.

That list includes pulling the trigger on Shields/Tatis (blame more on JR or KW?), Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, Moncada/Kopech, Welington Castillo (the abysmal catching situation in general), Courtney Hawkins/Barnum/Trey M., etc.

Hostetler is (much) more responsible for the amateur drafting aspect, and not the end results of the big trades than KW and Hahn have made.

 

 

If you are going to declare those players failures how about discussung Covey, Abreu, Sanchez, Anderson, Rodon, Dunning, Jimenez, Collins, Zavala, Fry, Soria.

[greg775]

2 hours ago, WBWSF said:

Face reality we're stuck with Hahn and company as long as JR owns the team. Hahn has been the GM for 6 years and the team hasn't had one winning season. Most other MLB owners would have replaced him by now. That unfortunately is not going to happen here.

No they wouldn't replace him. Hahn is beloved cause we want to lose, remember?

[Jose Abreu]

58 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Ozzie Albies just hit homers in back to back games this week. The kid is only 21 and is already a better ballplayer than Moncada. 

The same Albies who has negative defensive value for the season and a .593 OPS over the last month? Wow, he sounds sensational. 

[Southwest Sider]

22 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I'm not basing my interpretation of Kopech being frustrated with AAA on anything but his Instagram Live videos that I skim through, and someone almost always asks him when he's going to get to Chicago and on more than 1 occasion I've seen his body language become annoyed and if I recall correctly he even shrugged one time recently and said "who knows" while exhaling, before catching himself and then going on about when it's his time, it's his time.

It's that in which I get the sense that he is frustrated or annoyed, because I've more or less seen it. Can't say the same about Eloy.

This is something I wasn't aware of. This changes my opinion completely. If he really is disappointed that he's not in Chicago yet, it could be a factor in his most recent struggles. Most concerning of all is like I said before, this is only his 2nd season above A-ball and he is struggling badly to find the strike zone. Is it boredom? Is it frustration? Or is it the fact that he still needs to develop? The kid seems mentally strong enough to overcome the idea that he should be in Chicago right now (even though he shouldn't). He will have to show that he can get the ball in the strike zone consistently at this point to even hope for a September call-up, which the Sox won't be particularly inclined to do. All signs should now point at a Kopech appearance next year at the earliest. The kid is going to have to learn to deal with adversity and part of that adversity may be the fact that he's disappointed he's not in Chicago yet.

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Anyone who posts here should know I'm still sky high on Moncada and Giolito, and after thinking about it further, I think the threshold of "they are what they are" is somewhere between 1200-1500 PA and 400-500 IP. Thinking that Moncada/Giolito will still figure it out, while acknowledging that they suck currently are two different and rational thoughts. My whole thing with Kopech is that I think he overthrows and might be better suited being similar to Aroldis Chapman than Verlander. I think there is a 50% chance he's a stud closer, a 30% chance that he's a complete bust and a 20% chance he's an ace. Both Moncada and Giolito are roughly 1/3 of the way to the IP/PA threshold. If they both get 2/3 of the way to the threshold and still suck that is the "get worried" point. The 1/2 point is the really concerned, but not worried quite yet point. I wouldn't get worried about Giolito never figuring it out until he gets to 380 MLB innings, because he's such a project and everyone knew that when he was traded here. I have said this multiple times and it bears repeating, If Giolito wasn't a major project he wouldn't have been available for Adam Eaton. I looked up where both guys are on experience and based on AB+BB Moncada is at 507 MLB PA, and Giolito is at 132 2/3 MLB IP. Both about roughly 1/3 of the maximum threshold, like I said earlier. 

This is a nice post, and I completely agree. Some players have longer learning curves, and the Sox are in the position now where they can take their time with a player like Giolito and see what he's got until others start forcing the issue. That doesn't seem like it would happen until next year at the earliest, so he's got his time. As for Moncada, I'd be stoked if he were a complete stud already, but sadly he is not. The good news is that he has already had a decent hot streak this year, he just needs to get through this hump, make the adjustments he needs, and start crushing again. It will be supremely disappointing if Moncada doesn't become a perennial All Star, but we can't really worry about that until more time has passed. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by South Sider

[Jack Parkman]

25 minutes ago, South Sider said:

This is a nice post, and I completely agree. Some players have longer learning curves, and the Sox are in the position now where they can take their time with a player like Giolito and see what he's got until others start forcing the issue. That doesn't seem like it would happen until next year at the earliest, so he's got his time. As for Moncada, I'd be stoked if he were a complete stud already, but sadly he is not. The good news is that he has already had a decent hot streak this year, he just needs to get through this hump, make the adjustments he needs, and start crushing again. It will be supremely disappointing if Moncada doesn't become a perennial All Star, but we can't really worry about that until more time has passed. 

Yeah, and one thing I never said earlier is that the majority of those plate appearances and innings that Moncada/Giolito have had they were bouncing back and forth from AAA to MLB and back again. Even though they  have those innings/plate appearances, I'm not really sure you can count partial seasons in the mix. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Dominikk85]

4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Anyone who posts here should know I'm still sky high on Moncada and Giolito, and after thinking about it further, I think the threshold of "they are what they are" is somewhere between 1200-1500 PA and 400-500 IP. Thinking that Moncada/Giolito will still figure it out, while acknowledging that they suck currently are two different and rational thoughts. My whole thing with Kopech is that I think he overthrows and might be better suited being similar to Aroldis Chapman than Verlander. I think there is a 50% chance he's a stud closer, a 30% chance that he's a complete bust and a 20% chance he's an ace. Both Moncada and Giolito are roughly 1/3 of the way to the IP/PA threshold. If they both get 2/3 of the way to the threshold and still suck that is the "get worried" point. The 1/2 point is the really concerned, but not worried quite yet point. I wouldn't get worried about Giolito never figuring it out until he gets to 380 MLB innings, because he's such a project and everyone knew that when he was traded here. I have said this multiple times and it bears repeating, If Giolito wasn't a major project he wouldn't have been available for Adam Eaton. I looked up where both guys are on experience and based on AB+BB Moncada is at 507 MLB PA, and Giolito is at 132 2/3 MLB IP. Both about roughly 1/3 of the maximum threshold, like I said earlier. 

moncada doesn't really suck. He has a K problem and needs to tap into more power to compensate for that but he actually did a step in the right direction this year so far lowering his ground ball rate to under 40%. Overall he was about a league average to slightly below hitter playing about average defense in the infield. he hasn't been a star yet and might never be but he is on pace for like 2.5 WAR.

 

If moncada improves his K rate and power a little more to maybe 30% Ks and a .220 ISO while keeping his solid 9-10% walk rates which is not unreasonable he could be a 110 wRC+ hitter with like 3.5 WAR per year. 3.5 WAR is a 60FV in prospect terms.

Now people hoped he could become a 280 hitter with 35+ bombs and that might never happen but if he becomes a 240/330/450 hitter with solid defense that wouldn't be terrible and that outcome is still very possible and wouldn't require a huge performance jump.

 

Giolito is a different case tough, he still is very young but he flat out sucked so far. problem with him is that so far there are little positive signs. with pitcher you want at least one of strikeouts and walks to be solid. if giolito would have a 7 ERA by giving up a ton of walks and homers but striking out a lot of guys that wouldn't be nice but at least there was hope. but very low Ks and very high walks isn't a bad combination. now he might find a whiff pitch he can lean on and improve his control but at this point it is defintely a big hill to climb. now many guys at his age are still in the minors but if you don't have swing and miss stuff AND bad control that isn't a good sign, there isn't even a clear elite reliever path for him due to the lack of a single wipeout pitch which most relievers have at least one (of course he could maybe throw 96 for one inning out of the pen but a straight 96 isn't that special anymore for a reliever if there is not a good breaking ball) . I'm not writing him off  yet but I'm sceptical.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, ptatc said:

If you are going to declare those players failures how about discussung Covey, Abreu, Sanchez, Anderson, Rodon, Dunning, Jimenez, Collins, Zavala, Fry, Soria.

I guess the real question is whether or not that's good enough for JR and the fan base, which might be left with only the Padres having a longer playoff drought if the M's can get in this season...

[Chicago White Sox]

9 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Honestly I've got more hope for Giolito and Moncada than I do for Kopech. I've always thought he was more likely to be a reliever. Honestly, lately the plate has been four inches bigger for him vs other hitters, and it is kinda hard to evaluate him as a hitter when he's constantly being screwed by horrible home plate umpires.

I lost you at you’ve got more faith in Giolito than Kopech.