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27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So you cite a guy who was an awful defender who somehow got good as proof of what exactly? That doesn’t show Moncada can get better?  I’m not sure I get your angle here other than the relentless b****fest over Moncada.

I'm just trying to figure out what parts of Moncada's game have improved so far in 2018.

The kid can't even field his position as well as Kyle freaking Schwarber. 

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3 minutes ago, Jake said:

As has been said, the extent to which folks are penciling Nick Madrigal into the lineup and beyond is the kind of thinking that will generally set the stage for disappointment. I don't take it as a given at all that he'll even be a MLB player. I'd like to see him hit the pitching in the low minors first, preferably. A lot of stuff can happen between now and whenever he finds his way to AAA.

If Madrigal gets picked 4th out of college, and doesn’t make it to the big leagues, literally everyone in the prospect business is wrong. He’s going to be the Sox 2b because he puts the bat on the ball, plays solid defense, and isn’t going to be an idiot on or off the field.

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4 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

You are going to get in trouble for asking questions like this around here.

It is pretty amazing how polarizing he is. I said earlier today that I think his next 162 games played will be much better, and at least one person took it as a shot. His first 162 have been uneven, to say the least. His talent is immense, but if he just makes the routine play and finds a better approach at the plate, he’s going to be an MVP candidate someday.

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4 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

If you  think Madrigal is gonna hit  .310 in his rookie year, you're most likely gonna be disappointed. How often does a rookie hit over .300? 

Mike Caruso did. Of course, he never did again.

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7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Kyle Schwarber plays 2b?

Obviously not and you know that. 

We are Sox fans. It was fun to laugh at the Cubs for putting a bumbling, unathletic, former catcher in the outfield and watch him stumble around. 

Now I look at the stats and the guys who was a running three stooges meme is fielding his position extremely better than the Sox's shiny former #1 prospect. 

 

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16 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Obviously not and you know that. 

We are Sox fans. It was fun to laugh at the Cubs for putting a bumbling, unathletic, former catcher in the outfield and watch him stumble around. 

Now I look at the stats and the guys who was a running three stooges meme is fielding his position extremely better than the Sox's shiny former #1 prospect. 

 

So, guys who start off poor defensively in their age 22-23 seasons can improve by age 25? That's great news.

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31 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Obviously not and you know that. 

We are Sox fans. It was fun to laugh at the Cubs for putting a bumbling, unathletic, former catcher in the outfield and watch him stumble around. 

Now I look at the stats and the guys who was a running three stooges meme is fielding his position extremely better than the Sox's shiny former #1 prospect. 

 

Then you are using the statistics wrong.

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24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So, guys who start off poor defensively in their age 22-23 seasons can improve by age 25? That's great news.

Moncada's defensive numbers are not improving though. 

Some highly touted prospects never reach their ceiling or even come close to it. So far that seems to be the course that Moncada is taking. 

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2 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

 

Moncada's defensive numbers are not improving though. 

Some highly touted prospects never reach their ceiling or even come close to it. So far that seems to be the course that Moncada is taking. 

Kyle Schwarber's DRS/Year (using numbers normalized for the full season since his seasons weren't full)

2015, LF: -13
2017, LF: -13

Kyle Schwarber's DRS did not improve between 2015 and 2017. Unfortunately per your logic that means his 2018 improvement is impossible.

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20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Kyle Schwarber's DRS/Year (using numbers normalized for the full season since his seasons weren't full)

2015, LF: -13
2017, LF: -13

Kyle Schwarber's DRS did not improve between 2015 and 2017. Unfortunately per your logic that means his 2018 improvement is impossible.

Moncada DRS 2017 =6

Moncada DRS 2018=1 

His numbers are going the wrong way very quickly and there is no guarantee they ever improve. Moncada is nothing more than a paper tiger at this point in his career. 

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10 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Moncada DRS 2017 =6

Moncada DRS 2018=1 

His numbers are going the wrong way very quickly and there is no guarantee they ever improve. Moncada is nothing more than a paper tiger at this point in his career. 

I like how you handwave away anything with stats or evidence from history for basically 1 stat, for some imaginary standard. 

This is a guy in his very first full season in the majors and you are already quitting on the guy in favor of Alen Hansen.  It is just the height of absurdity. 

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FWIW the thing that pushes Schwarber's D into the positive is the arm component, which is the hardest part to keep afloat in the long haul as runners wise up. And IMO Statcast has the best method for grading outfielders on their ability to catch the ball. It does not make Schwarber look good at all. This is of course an apples to oranges comparison because we know Yoan Moncada would be a better LF than Kyle Schwarber.

And is Yoan getting better or worse on defense? It's hard to say quantitatively. What I will say is he had a run of bad errors that coincided with the depths of his batting slump. I think those kinds of things are the most easily corrected class of fielding problems. His UZR range component has been consistently good and I believe that to be the hardest thing to improve for an infielder — it's kind of like trying to get a guy to run faster. His double play component of both UZR and DRS has improved. I see some upside for an above average defender in Yoan, perhaps even better than that. He so far has struggled with committing errors, so the downside is that he's below average. I tend to think he'll be about average when it all washes out as he probably doesn't have the hands to avoid some simple errors but has the athleticism and arm strength to make up for it with good plays.

Last, the idea that Yoan is presently *bad* overall is nonsense. If this Yoan Moncada is all he'll ever be, he's a middle of the road MLB player and could play up in a platoon in the right roster configuration. He's already better than Gordon Beckham ever was at 2B. By Sox standards, that means he has 4-6 seasons ahead of him before we close the books.

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1 minute ago, Jake said:

FWIW the thing that pushes Schwarber's D into the positive is the arm component, which is the hardest part to keep afloat in the long haul as runners wise up. And IMO Statcast has the best method for grading outfielders on their ability to catch the ball. It does not make Schwarber look good at all. This is of course an apples to oranges comparison because we know Yoan Moncada would be a better LF than Kyle Schwarber.

And is Yoan getting better or worse on defense? It's hard to say quantitatively. What I will say is he had a run of bad errors that coincided with the depths of his batting slump. I think those kinds of things are the most easily corrected class of fielding problems. His UZR range component has been consistently good and I believe that to be the hardest thing to improve for an infielder — it's kind of like trying to get a guy to run faster. His double play component of both UZR and DRS has improved. I see some upside for an above average defender in Yoan, perhaps even better than that. He so far has struggled with committing errors, so the downside is that he's below average. I tend to think he'll be about average when it all washes out as he probably doesn't have the hands to avoid some simple errors but has the athleticism and arm strength to make up for it with good plays.

Last, the idea that Yoan is presently *bad* overall is nonsense. If this Yoan Moncada is all he'll ever be, he's a middle of the road MLB player and could play up in a platoon in the right roster configuration. He's already better than Gordon Beckham ever was at 2B. By Sox standards, that means he has 4-6 seasons ahead of him before we close the books.

Now this is a good and well thought out post.

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2 hours ago, flavum said:

It is pretty amazing how polarizing he is. I said earlier today that I think his next 162 games played will be much better, and at least one person took it as a shot. His first 162 have been uneven, to say the least. His talent is immense, but if he just makes the routine play and finds a better approach at the plate, he’s going to be an MVP candidate someday.

Watch out, you might get a confused face with this kind of optimism with Moncada!

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Watch out, you might get a confused face with this kind of optimism with Moncada!

I gave you a confused face because it just felt right, but I also love Moncada and am skeptical of the judgement of someone who has a handle that is a personal email address.

Edited by AustinIllini
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Moncada is striking out a lot. What I find interesting about his strikeouts is that he strikes out a great deal with his bat on his shoulder. Today he struck out 4 times without swinging. He seems to look at strike 3 alot. Is it possible that the strike zone is different in Cuba than the one here in the USA? Is he not use to the strike zone here?

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7 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

I gave you a confused face because it just felt right, but I also love Moncada and am skeptical of the judgement of someone who has a handle that is a personal email address.

I'm a fellow Illini so you shouldn't be too skeptical. 

I'm lazy and never changed my username back after the forum got back from its vacation/hiatus.

Maybe I'll do that tomorrow.

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5 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

Moncada is striking out a lot. What I find interesting about his strikeouts is that he strikes out a great deal with his bat on his shoulder. Today he struck out 4 times without swinging. He seems to look at strike 3 alot. Is it possible that the strike zone is different in Cuba than the one here in the USA? Is he not use to the strike zone here?

Nah man. It's one giant conspiracy by the umps to screw him over.

Good players make adjustments. Let's hope Mr. Moncada is capable of adapting his game.

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