Moncada

[southsider2k5]

Watch where you step Alice... there's rabbit holes everywhere!

 

I'm still standing by my original thoughts on Moncada. He's young with limited baseball experience in this country compared to many other prospects. He's taking his lumps like pro and still feel he will be fine.

 

He's young, and he is even younger in terms of quality experience. We have seen that playing in the Cuban leagues isn't the same as playing high school and college ball in the US. Guys don't come here with a set of basic skills. Look at a 27 year old Jose Abreu who comes here and has no idea how to use footwork around 1st base. Alexei Ramirez had the same adjustment period. Now scale back and realize that Moncada is only 22 anyway. These struggles shouldn't surprise anyone.

[southsider2k5]

I guess I had hoped that the big 3 prospects on the big league club(Moncada/Giolito/Lopez) would come out and light the world on fire early this season, and I'm fairly disappointed they haven't. It doesn't mean they can't figure it out later, but Moncada and Giolito look really bad lately. I'm encouraged by Giolito's competitive spirit and being able to go out there and pitch fairly decently without anywhere near his best stuff, but that stuff looks awful. It makes me even more disappointed because I spent most of the spring talking these two up and telling everyone how I thought they'd both have a big season. Then, the regular season hits and they both look awful. I didn't expect that from either of them. I thought they both made strides last year and in spring. Nope, I was wrong. I feel like an idiot for talking them up. So, I guess I'm taking out my frustration by spewing negativity on the board. Night.

 

This is not realistic. The history of baseball is littered with Hall of Famers who struggled early in their careers. Almost no one starts out on top and stays there.

[hogan873]

For all of the people that begged for a rebuild, there are too many who can't handle a rebuild. This is a process, and it will take YEARS, not 12 games. Stressing over the micro's of pitch to pitch in a process like this is such a waste of time. Zoom out and look at this as a timeline and not the next pitch.

Spot on. There is not only freaking over individual games but over individual at-bats. This is going to be a painful year with ups and downs (more downs than ups), and players like Moncada will frustrate because we expect more. As someone else has mentioned, he's had about 300 at bats at the MLB level. He needs more, lots more. And the Sox can afford to be patient with his development.

[Jack Parkman]

This is not realistic. The history of baseball is littered with Hall of Famers who struggled early in their careers. Almost no one starts out on top and stays there.

Not true anymore. It is actually quite the opposite in most sports now. Either a player is good right away or they're no good at all. There is no margin for error anymore. Trout, Bryant, Lindor, Correa, are among baseball's top players and they came up, got on top and are staying there. Not to say that a more traditional development path can't still be successful, but if a player comes up and struggles he's more likely to completely wash out than become a star eventually.

Edited April 13, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[soxfan49]

I've noticed that whenever I bring numbers into this, you tend to ignore them. It's entirely possible for someone to be a positive impact player with a high strikeout rate. Last year, that would apply to Moncada. This year, with the .80 discrepancy between his wOBA and his xwOBA, it should happen again.

Maybe direct those numbers to the people who agreed with you a week ago, because those same people are starting to change their minds. I don't really care about exit velocity if you're barely making contact, because at that K rate, he'll be middle of the pack soon.

 

If you don't think he's struggling, why did Renteria say he was last night? Why were Abreu and Garcia seen talking to him? Don't they know about exit velocity?

 

As much as I'd like to say no one is saying he sucks and will never be successful, it seems like some people are saying that. I'm not one of them. I'm strictly pointing out that he has been underwhelming NOW and is struggling NOW.

Edited April 13, 2018 by soxfan49

[southsider2k5]

Not true anymore. It is actually quite the opposite in most sports now. Either a player is good right away or they're no good at all. There is no margin for error anymore. Trout, Bryant, Lindor, Correa, are among baseball's top players and they came up, got on top and are staying there. Not to say that a more traditional development path can't still be successful, but if a player comes up and struggles he's more likely to completely wash out than become a star eventually.

 

Say what? I mean, let's go with a list back. Corey Kluber, Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, Xander Boegarts, Jackie Bradley, JD Martinez, as a starter list.

[soxfan49]

I'm curious as to what hill you think you're dying on here? What are you seeking out here? Everyone to say "MONCADA IS FAILING! WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO?!?" What do you want here?

Oh for f***s sake, get off of your high horse. No one wants you to say anything, with the exception of not completely ripping apart everyone who thinks he's struggling. We know he's your native son who's going to bring the Sox back to relevancy, but at the moment, he is struggling. That's all I'm trying to say.

 

As for the people who are saying he'll fall in line with the majority of guys who struggle in that he'll struggle forever, I'm NOT saying that. They are. Redirect your anger their way.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Say what? I mean, let's go with a list back. Corey Kluber, Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, Xander Boegarts, Jackie Bradley, JD Martinez, as a starter list.

I'm still not sold on these two from the offensive side. No doubt they can flash the leather though.

[Lip Man 1]

Sun-Times story today on Moncada with quotes:

 

https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/white-s...h-early-season/

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

My take...what we are seeing from Moncada is definitely concerning but not insurmountable in the long term. It seems most of his issues are mental. At the plate, it's his mental approach to hitting. It seems like he has no plan when he steps up to the plate. He doesn't understand how pitchers are attacking him. He doesn't know how to adjust his approach over the course of an at-bat or in-game. Thankfully, this is something that can be fixed with a little mentoring/coaching (that's a different issue altogether). On defense, most of issues are again mental - lack of focus. The physical tools are there, no doubt about it. Hopefully within the next two years we will see his mental approach catch up with his physical tools. Baseball is a game of constant adjustments and I think most Sox fans are simply looking for any sign of adjustments from him. Again, it's very early but he needs to start making adjustments in his game if he has any hope of becoming the type of player we all hoped he would one day be.

[flavum]

I’m throwing out April for everyone. Let’s look at his May-AS break numbers, and more importantly, at the end of the season. First full season. Stuff happens.

[Jose Abreu]

Maybe direct those numbers to the people who agreed with you a week ago, because those same people are starting to change their minds. I don't really care about exit velocity if you're barely making contact, because at that K rate, he'll be middle of the pack soon.

 

If you don't think he's struggling, why did Renteria say he was last night? Why were Abreu and Garcia seen talking to him? Don't they know about exit velocity?

 

As much as I'd like to say no one is saying he sucks and will never be successful, it seems like some people are saying that. I'm not one of them. I'm strictly pointing out that he has been underwhelming NOW and is struggling NOW.

Again you're using a straw man argument against me. I'm not talking about his exit velocity. It is an objective fact that his xwOBA suggests he has been extremely unlucky so far. That even factors in his strikeout rate. Entering yesterday his xwOBA was at .384, a very respectable number. His actual wOBA was at .294 (so I mistyped earlier, it's actually a .09 discrepancy). If you're really gonna disregard that, that's your prerogative, but it's literally inarguable.

Edited April 13, 2018 by Jose Abreu

[Jake]

It became clear last night that Yoan's head was in the wrong place. We've seen him play satisfactorily for long stretches before and he'll get back there.

[FloydBannister1983]

Again you're using a straw man argument against me. I'm not talking about his exit velocity. It is an objective fact that his xwOBA suggests he has been extremely unlucky so far. That even factors in his strikeout rate. Entering yesterday his xwOBA was at .384, a very respectable number. His actual wOBA was at .294 (so I mistyped earlier, it's actually a .09 discrepancy). If you're really gonna disregard that, that's your prerogative, but it's literally inarguable.

 

FWIW, expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity and launch angle, two metrics measured by Statcast. So if you are talking about xwOBA you are, by definition, talking about exit velocity, albeit indirectly.

 

 

[Jose Abreu]

FWIW, expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity and launch angle, two metrics measured by Statcast. So if you are talking about xwOBA you are, by definition, talking about exit velocity, albeit indirectly.

Right. It's definitely a part of the equation but it presents it in a way that includes all PAs (strikeouts included), which relate to his argument

[Chicago White Sox]

Not true anymore. It is actually quite the opposite in most sports now. Either a player is good right away or they're no good at all. There is no margin for error anymore. Trout, Bryant, Lindor, Correa, are among baseball's top players and they came up, got on top and are staying there. Not to say that a more traditional development path can't still be successful, but if a player comes up and struggles he's more likely to completely wash out than become a star eventually.

Jack, I like you bro, but this viewpoint is insanity. Here is one example that took five seconds to think of. I’m sure there are dozens of others I could think if I spent the time.

 

Jose Altuve

2011 (21): 234 PA, .654 OPS, 80 wRC+

2012 (22): 630 PA, .740 OPS, 102 wRC+

2017 (27): 662 PA, .957 OPS, 160 wRC+

 

Yoan Moncada

2017 (22): 231 PA, .750 OPS, 104 wRC+

[Justinsettle]

Jack, I like you bro, but this viewpoint is insanity. Here is one example that took five seconds to think of. I’m sure there are dozens of others I could think if I spent the time.

 

Jose Altuve

2011 (21): 234 PA, .654 OPS, 80 wRC+

2012 (22): 630 PA, .740 OPS, 102 wRC+

2017 (27): 662 PA, .957 OPS, 160 wRC+

 

Yoan Moncada

2017 (22): 231 PA, .750 OPS, 104 wRC+

 

And the HUGE difference being Jose Altuve- even in 2011- made contact with balls in the strike zone 96% of the time- his career contact rate on balls in the strike zone is almost 94%. Moncada is 76%. I want Moncada to be great one day but the odds are really stacked against him. Major swing and miss issues- just like Schwarber. And that stat historically is pretty much set after 300 AB- it doesn't change much. Like DNA...Maybe he just needs glasses. But the Z-contract rate of pretty much anyone that has a long career in MLB is at least 85%.

 

[Blackout Friday]

Jack, I like you bro, but this viewpoint is insanity.

Yeah. Absurd.

[Tannerfan]

Having read the Sun-Times article, if he turns it around I will really be impressed with Renteria for having a meeting with Moncada after last nights game.

 

If he doesn’t turn it around he should be sent to AAA to try and get right.

The ghost of Gordon Beckham and everything he was supposed to be hangs over Moncada whether we like it or not.

 

Hahn has said the next phase is player development. A twenty two year old who is having at bats as bad as Moncada’s should not be on the major league roster. We may ruin him like we ruined Beckham. Not to mention Avasil Garcia who also was forced onto the major league roster several years ago when it was plain he needed more minor league seasoning.

 

I agree with the Moncada advocates who stress patience but that patience should be learning in Charlotte.

[Blackout Friday]

Having read the Sun-Times article, if he turns it around I will really be impressed with Renteria for having a meeting with Moncada after last nights game.

 

If he doesn’t turn it around he should be sent to AAA to try and get right.

The ghost of Gordon Beckham and everything he was supposed to be hangs over Moncada whether we like it or not.

 

Hahn has said the next phase is player development. A twenty two year old who is having at bats as bad as Moncada’s should not be on the major league roster. We may ruin him like we ruined Beckham. Not to mention Avasil Garcia who also was forced onto the major league roster several years ago when it was plain he needed more minor league seasoning.

 

I agree with the Moncada advocates who stress patience but that patience should be learning in Charlotte.

The lesson I learned from Gordon Beckham is to not judge a player based on their first 400-450 at bats. Moncada hasn’t even reached that mark yet.

[Tannerfan]

The lesson I learned from Gordon Beckham is to not judge a player based on their first 400-450 at bats. Moncada hasn’t even reached that mark yet.

 

The lesson I learned was don’t rush a player to the majors who isn’t ready.

 

[Blackout Friday]

The lesson I learned was don’t rush a player to the majors who isn’t ready.

Both can be true.

[Tannerfan]

Both can be true.

 

Agreed. I just fear the White Sox history of not developing players and rushing guys to the bigs.

[reiks12]

The lesson I learned was don’t rush a player to the majors who isn’t ready.

 

He destroyed AAA , what more can he develop there? How to beat up on AAA pitchers?

[caulfield12]

He destroyed AAA , what more can he develop there? How to beat up on AAA pitchers?

 

See Jimenez in 2017 for that.

 

Moncada started out white hot and then fell back to earth. He also didn’t do a great job as RHer against lefties and his K rate was way too high.