Moncada

[Jose Abreu]

20 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

 We all know based on your username, you are unable to have a unbiased opinion on Abreu. You irrationally love him.

I'm sorry, I guess I didn't consider that thinking that Abreu is a good hitter and not an awful person makes me biased. Sorry I don't go out of my way to rail on him for every slump or every off the field choice he makes.

It's so unfortunate that he's an above average baseball player, and he's such a monster for helping special needs children in his off time. Better?

[ron883]

4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I'm sorry, I guess I didn't consider that thinking that Abreu is a good hitter and not an awful person makes me biased. Sorry I don't go out of my way to rail on him for every slump or every off the field choice he makes.

It's so unfortunate that he's an above average baseball player, and he's such a monster for helping special needs children in his off time. Better?

When did I say he was a bad person? I've always said he was a great person. I'm considering reporting you for posting fake news about me

[Greg Hibbard]

14 hours ago, SCCWS said:

It is more than a 20 game brutal stretch. He hit .274-April, .205- May, .197-June .231-July .182-August.  Luckily he had a solid April.   He is not extremely young by today's standards but he is fairly new to US baseball. 

Looking at Batting Average alone really doesn't do justice to the type of hitter he is. He's not a one dimensional high average hitter. Much of his value comes from bases on balls, xbh, and speed.

Edited August 16, 2018 by Greg Hibbard

[The Sir]

12 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Looking at Batting Average alone really doesn't do justice to the type of hitter he is. He's not a one dimensional high average hitter. Much of his value comes from bases on balls, xbh, and speed.

You are correct. So look at OPS instead. I don't care that Moncada is hitting .219; I do care that his OPS is .695. And looking at month-by-month, he did .877, .582, .592, .749, .606 so far. One excellent month, one average month, and three Engel months. 

The fact of the matter is that Ks must come down. Right now, he's striking out at a 35% rate. If he could get that down to 27% (190 Ks in 700 PAs), he could be at least above average. A .325 BABIP (assuming 25 HRs, and this is roughly his BABIP in MLB time with us) and 10% BB-rate with that K-rate would give him 160 hits in 630 ABs (.254 BA). OBP of .329. Assume 30 2Bs and 5 3Bs, and he accumulates 275 TBs for an SLG of .437. OPS is .766. Not bad, and he'd certainly be a starting two-bagger, maybe even top-10 in MLB. But not Robinson Cano, as many (I think) were hoping for.

Now let's imagine if he can get down to current Kris Bryant levels (although I will add that Bryant started at where I have Moncada ending in the last scenario, but he was more polished, fine, OK). So give him a 20% K-rate, like Bryant attained last year. 140 Ks in 700 PAs. BABIP of .325 (and because he's not K'ing as much, we'll predict 30 HRs). Some of those looking Ks have now morphed into well-deserved walks, so he has a 15% BB-rate. That's 105 BBs (elite batting eye- this is totally possible). That BABIP and aforementioned assumptions gives us 168 hits in 595 ABs, for a .282 BA (OBP of .390). Assume 35 2Bs (again, less time striking out means more time to drill the ball into the gap) and 5 3Bs. That's 303 TBs for an SLG of .505 and an OPS of .899.

That is what we traded Chris freakin' Sale for. But the Ks must come down.

P.S. just for fun, if I took the 20% K-rate but kept everything else at his 2018 rates, here's what you'd get in 700 PAs:

ABs- 627

BBs- 73

Hs- 178

2Bs- 30

3Bs- 7

HRs- 22

BA- .284

OBP- .359

SLG- .459

OPS- .818

That level is reached simply by cutting his Ks (albeit significantly). That's all based on his exact rates for BBs, XBHs of each type, and his current BABIP. No improvement except the K-rate. If he can start being aggressive earlier in counts and defensive later in them, he can be a perennial All Star. And like some have said, teaching Yoan to be more like Tim Anderson will be a lot easier than teaching Tim Anderson to be like Yoan.

[SCCWS]

55 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Looking at Batting Average alone really doesn't do justice to the type of hitter he is. He's not a one dimensional high average hitter. Much of his value comes from bases on balls, xbh, and speed.

Greg: I agree. I was trying to show that he had a solid April then dropped since then. But BA directly affects XBH and speed because the lower the average the less likely XBH and speed come in to play. His strikeouts are very up and down. He has had several 40+ and August may end up worst than any.  So overall, I don't see August as a slump since he really struggled in May and July. 

[The Sir]

7 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

Greg: I agree. I was trying to show that he had a solid April then dropped since then. But BA directly affects XBH and speed because the lower the average the less likely XBH and speed come in to play. His strikeouts are very up and down. He has had several 40+ and August may end up worst than any.  So overall, I don't see August as a slump since he really struggled in May and July. 

I find the K-rate concerning. Like I think I capably showed in my last post, it’s the difference between him being a borderline superstar or him being traded for a PTBNL in 2022. 

But it is very important to note what kind of strikeouts he has. And while I’m not a real Fangraphs nerd, what gives me some optimism is that whole O-swing, Z-swing thing. The guy knows the zone, which the biggest reason I think his Ks can come down.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Hot FiRe said:

When did I say he was a bad person? I've always said he was a great person. I'm considering reporting you for posting fake news about me

Denied.

[southsider2k5]

21 minutes ago, The Sir said:

You are correct. So look at OPS instead. I don't care that Moncada is hitting .219; I do care that his OPS is .695. And looking at month-by-month, he did .877, .582, .592, .749, .606 so far. One excellent month, one average month, and three Engel months. 

The fact of the matter is that Ks must come down. Right now, he's striking out at a 35% rate. If he could get that down to 27% (190 Ks in 700 PAs), he could be at least above average. A .325 BABIP (assuming 25 HRs, and this is roughly his BABIP in MLB time with us) and 10% BB-rate with that K-rate would give him 160 hits in 630 ABs (.254 BA). OBP of .329. Assume 30 2Bs and 5 3Bs, and he accumulates 275 TBs for an SLG of .437. OPS is .766. Not bad, and he'd certainly be a starting two-bagger, maybe even top-10 in MLB. But not Robinson Cano, as many (I think) were hoping for.

Now let's imagine if he can get down to current Kris Bryant levels (although I will add that Bryant started at where I have Moncada ending in the last scenario, but he was more polished, fine, OK). So give him a 20% K-rate, like Bryant attained last year. 140 Ks in 700 PAs. BABIP of .325 (and because he's not K'ing as much, we'll predict 30 HRs). Some of those looking Ks have now morphed into well-deserved walks, so he has a 15% BB-rate. That's 105 BBs (elite batting eye- this is totally possible). That BABIP and aforementioned assumptions gives us 168 hits in 595 ABs, for a .282 BA (OBP of .390). Assume 35 2Bs (again, less time striking out means more time to drill the ball into the gap) and 5 3Bs. That's 303 TBs for an SLG of .505 and an OPS of .899.

That is what we traded Chris freakin' Sale for. But the Ks must come down.

P.S. just for fun, if I took the 20% K-rate but kept everything else at his 2018 rates, here's what you'd get in 700 PAs:

ABs- 627

BBs- 73

Hs- 178

2Bs- 30

3Bs- 7

HRs- 22

BA- .284

OBP- .359

SLG- .459

OPS- .818

That level is reached simply by cutting his Ks (albeit significantly). That's all based on his exact rates for BBs, XBHs of each type, and his current BABIP. No improvement except the K-rate. If he can start being aggressive earlier in counts and defensive later in them, he can be a perennial All Star. And like some have said, teaching Yoan to be more like Tim Anderson will be a lot easier than teaching Tim Anderson to be like Yoan.

If you take out the K's on bad calls, he is there already.  At last check he had been called out somewhere around 40 times on pitches that weren't strikes.  I don't know why this keeps getting ignored.

[The Sir]

16 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If you take out the K's on bad calls, he is there already.  At last check he had been called out somewhere around 40 times on pitches that weren't strikes.  I don't know why this keeps getting ignored.

Frankly, because “woulda, coulda, shoulda” isn’t going to win us a ring. It makes us feel better about things, but it doesn’t help achieve the goal. Is it a decent argument as to why he can and should feasibly improve along my predicted lines? Sure. But until it turns into end results, it’s not going to mean a ton to many people. Do I share their complete despair? No, but I understand it. Results matter.

Edited August 16, 2018 by The Sir

[iWiN4PreP]

Great analysis @The Sir, agree with it pretty much spot on. Also in agreeance about the blown calls argument. Results matter. 

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, The Sir said:

Frankly, because “woulda, coulda, shoulda” isn’t going to win us a ring. It makes us feel better about things, but it doesn’t help achieve the goal. Is it a decent argument as to why he can and should feasibly improve along my predicted lines? Sure. But until it turns into end results, it’s not going to mean a ton to many people. Do I share their complete despair? No, but I understand it. Results matter.

I am not sure what this even means, but the reality is that we are in the early stages of a rebuild.  We have some players who are in their very first full season of major league baseball, and are quite literally learning on the job.  This is what the process looks like.  That process will be continuing for the foreseeable future.  If you just need to see "results" and aren't willing to watch the games and understand the results, you should probably log out and come back in a few years when "results"  should be available.  The "results" in 2018 literally don't matter.

[The Sir]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am not sure what this even means, but the reality is that we are in the early stages of a rebuild.  We have some players who are in their very first full season of major league baseball, and are quite literally learning on the job.  This is what the process looks like.  That process will be continuing for the foreseeable future.  If you just need to see "results" and aren't willing to watch the games and understand the results, you should probably log out and come back in a few years when "results"  should be available.  The "results" in 2018 literally don't matter.

This isn't hard, dude.

"His stats get way better when you factor in a little bit of respect from the umpires on how good his batting eye is." OK, that's an argument for why he will improve, and it's even a decent argument in that regard. What you said combined with what I said and, at the very least, Moncada is an above average MLB second baseman.

But some people are going to be antsy about it until that actually comes to fruition. That's understandable.

And yes, some results matter in 2018. But they need context. Giolito's overall stats are awful, but if you look at the last month or so, it's been much better. That's an important caveat for how we look at him going into the off season. Moncada's overall stats are below average, but if you look at certain aspects it gets better. It's stupid to throw out these results entirely, but they need context. So yeah, results matter, and if you're not looking at results at all, you're doing it wrong.

[The Sir]

17 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Great analysis @The Sir, agree with it pretty much spot on. Also in agreeance about the blown calls argument. Results matter. 

Thanks, man.

I will say that, if anyone thinks my stance on Moncada (often pessimistic in the past) changed, well, to some extent, it did. I just did the math and let it play out. Seeing what he can reasonably do if he overcomes one area of difficulty is enlightening, and gives me a higher degree of optimism.

For that reason, I'm just going to shamelessly drop @footlongcomiskeydog in here and see what he thinks of the possibilities.

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, The Sir said:

This isn't hard, dude.

"His stats get way better when you factor in a little bit of respect from the umpires on how good his batting eye is." OK, that's an argument for why he will improve, and it's even a decent argument in that regard. What you said combined with what I said and, at the very least, Moncada is an above average MLB second baseman.

But some people are going to be antsy about it until that actually comes to fruition. That's understandable.

And yes, some results matter in 2018. But they need context. Giolito's overall stats are awful, but if you look at the last month or so, it's been much better. That's an important caveat for how we look at him going into the off season. Moncada's overall stats are below average, but if you look at certain aspects it gets better. It's stupid to throw out these results entirely, but they need context. So yeah, results matter, and if you're not looking at results at all, you're doing it wrong.

It is worse to look at the stats in a vacuum and make assumptions based on feelings and angst.  This isn't just strikeouts and OPS. 

[JuliusO1274]

There are flaws to the umpire excuse being used for Moncada. A previous post highlighted a tweet about Moncada's "good eye" because he is in the top percentage of hitters who do not swing at pitches outside the zone. Problem is he is also in the top percentage of hitters who do not swing at pitches inside the zone either. His lack of swinging at pitches outside the zone isn't due to his supposed good eye but due to the fact that he just doesn't swing the bat as often as most hitters whether the ball is in or out of the zone.

This is also the reason why he has the most called 3rd strikeouts with balls outside of the zone. Most of these pitches are very close and people think umpires have something against Moncada because he get called out on so many of these close pitches. The reality is that Moncada has so many close pitches that miss the zone called as strike 3 because other hitters do not take these pitches with 2 strikes. They know they have to protect the plate and cannot take pitches like that. Moncada takes these pitches and not surprisingly get rung up on them many times. If other hitters were taking these close pitches with 2 strikes they would be getting called out as often as Moncada on bad strike 3 calls.

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, JuliusO1274 said:

There are flaws to the umpire excuse being used for Moncada. A previous post highlighted a tweet about Moncada's "good eye" because he is in the top percentage of hitters who do not swing at pitches outside the zone. Problem is he is also in the top percentage of hitters who do not swing at pitches inside the zone either. His lack of swinging at pitches outside the zone isn't due to his supposed good eye but due to the fact that he just doesn't swing the bat as often as most hitters whether the ball is in or out of the zone.

This is also the reason why he has the most called 3rd strikeouts with balls outside of the zone. Most of these pitches are very close and people think umpires have something against Moncada because he get called out on so many of these close pitches. The reality is that Moncada has so many close pitches that miss the zone called as strike 3 because other hitters do not take these pitches with 2 strikes. They know they have to protect the plate and cannot take pitches like that. Moncada takes these pitches and not surprisingly get rung up on them many times. If other hitters were taking these close pitches with 2 strikes they would be getting called out as often as Moncada on bad strike 3 calls.

Fantastic post (and a first post too). Welcome to the board and completely agree with everything you said, as well as what Sir has articulated.  

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, JuliusO1274 said:

The reality is that Moncada has so many close pitches that miss the zone called as strike 3 because other hitters do not take these pitches with 2 strikes. They know they have to protect the plate and cannot take pitches like that. Moncada takes these pitches and not surprisingly get rung up on them many times. If other hitters were taking these close pitches with 2 strikes they would be getting called out as often as Moncada on bad strike 3 calls.

Posts like these make it clear to me as to who watches games and who doesn't. If he were getting rung up on pitches that were an inch off the zone I wouldn't care as much. But when he routinely gets called out on pitches quite literally 5-6 inches off the zone, pitches that are called a strike in their respective locations 0-5% of the time, I really can't fault him for it, and neither should you 

Edited August 16, 2018 by Jose Abreu

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

Posts like these make it clear to me as to who watches games and who doesn't. If he were getting rung up on pitches that were an inch off the zone I wouldn't care as much. But when he routinely gets called out on pitches quite literally 5-6 inches off the zone, pitches that are called a strike in their respective locations 0-5% of the time, I really can't fault him for it, and neither should you 

I disagree with this statement wholeheartedly and pivot it more to a conversation about people who played the game for an extended period of time vs. those who didn't.  You are taught to take the game out of the umps hands with two strikes. What that means is, as a hitter, you are typically taught to slightly expand your zone with 2 strikes so that you don't give up an at bat.  Period.  Moncada looks at too many close pitches and quite frankly too many pitches in general (that are in the hitting zone). This is an approach thing and while he absolutely has a good eye, he also is not near aggressive enough and is going to have to look at film and come up with an adjusted strategy.  

The entire Sox offensive coaching staff is essentially blasting Moncada for not being aggressive and it goes back to this basic concept that is essentially grounded in baseball players heads from a young age.  And even as strike out numbers amount, the reason people are striking out a lot more isn't because they don't swing with 2 strikes and let strikes go looking...its cause they swing as hard as they can every damn time (vs. shifting an approach with 2 strikes to be more contact specific...look for the base hit vs. the HR).  

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

Posts like these make it clear to me as to who watches games and who doesn't. If he were getting rung up on pitches that were an inch off the zone I wouldn't care as much. But when he routinely gets called out on pitches quite literally 5-6 inches off the zone, pitches that are called a strike in their respective locations 0-5% of the time, I really can't fault him for it, and neither should you 

Yeah, you could easily break it down with “% of those called strike 3 on other hitters” and make a relatively simple comparison.

There’s probably 15 of those 40 that were egregiously bad calls that no major league hitter should swing at...or could hit successfully (of course, fouling off more pitcher’s pitches is yet another area of improvement.)

That leaves roughly 25 that were much closer to true borderline pitches.

There’s just no way someone like Aaron Judge has gotten jobbed on so many called strike 3’s that are 5-7 inches outside the zone at Yankee Stadium...the White Sox, as a tanking team, have gotten the worst end of calls seemingly all year long, and Renteria hasn’t done much to defend his players, either.

[Jose Abreu]

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I disagree with this statement wholeheartedly and pivot it more to a conversation about people who played the game for an extended period of time vs. those who didn't.  You are taught to take the game out of the umps hands with two strikes. What that means is, as a hitter, you are typically taught to slightly expand your zone with 2 strikes so that you don't give up an at bat.  Period.  Moncada looks at too many close pitches and quite frankly too many pitches in general (that are in the hitting zone). This is an approach thing and while he absolutely has a good eye, he also is not near aggressive enough and is going to have to look at film and come up with an adjusted strategy.  

 The entire Sox offensive coaching staff is essentially blasting Moncada for not being aggressive and it goes back to this basic concept that is essentially grounded in baseball players heads from a young age.  And even as strike out numbers amount, the reason people are striking out a lot more isn't because they don't swing with 2 strikes and let strikes go looking...its cause they swing as hard as they can every damn time (vs. shifting an approach with 2 strikes to be more contact specific...look for the base hit vs. the HR).  

I do agree that he should swing more with 2 strikes. But not on pitches that are called strikes 0% of the time, because they're nearly unhittable anyway. That's more what I was getting at, those 15-25 calls that were just indefensible for an umpire. If the pitch is like an inch off the zone, then yes, he should expand and swing. 

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I disagree with this statement wholeheartedly and pivot it more to a conversation about people who played the game for an extended period of time vs. those who didn't.  You are taught to take the game out of the umps hands with two strikes. What that means is, as a hitter, you are typically taught to slightly expand your zone with 2 strikes so that you don't give up an at bat.  Period.  Moncada looks at too many close pitches and quite frankly too many pitches in general (that are in the hitting zone). This is an approach thing and while he absolutely has a good eye, he also is not near aggressive enough and is going to have to look at film and come up with an adjusted strategy.  

The entire Sox offensive coaching staff is essentially blasting Moncada for not being aggressive and it goes back to this basic concept that is essentially grounded in baseball players heads from a young age.  And even as strike out numbers amount, the reason people are striking out a lot more isn't because they don't swing with 2 strikes and let strikes go looking...its cause they swing as hard as they can every damn time (vs. shifting an approach with 2 strikes to be more contact specific...look for the base hit vs. the HR).  

Did this first paragraph come from Nick Madrigal, lol...the second sounds like Palka.  At least we have both extremes represented in our organization. 

Hopefully Madrigal will rub off on everyone else, if they’re not going to listen to the coaching staff (or Abreu, for that matter.)

[EvilJester99]

Moncada needs to start spoiling off pitches that are close instead of not swinging.. foul off those you don’t like and kill the ones you do. Taking those close pitches are killing him. 

[ptatc]

17 minutes ago, EvilJester99 said:

Moncada needs to start spoiling off pitches that are close instead of not swinging.. foul off those you don’t like and kill the ones you do. Taking those close pitches are killing him. 

No doubt. While some of the pitches called strikes were obvious, many are "too close to take." The umpires are human. This isn't an exact science. The hitters need to be aware of that. 

[footlongcomiskeydog]

45 minutes ago, EvilJester99 said:

Moncada needs to start spoiling off pitches that are close instead of not swinging.. foul off those you don’t like and kill the ones you do. Taking those close pitches are killing him. 

This is all so much easier said than done. 

[The Sir]

19 minutes ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

This is all so much easier said than done. 

I still want your thoughts on what he can do at his current rates if only he can bring the K-rate down. I did all the math for several reduced-K scenarios towards the top of this page (assuming you're on page 73).