Moncada

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Greg Hibbard said:

He has struck out 97 times in his last 345 PA since August 17, 2018 for a 28.1% K rate.


THAT seems like a much more significant sample size than 80 PA.

That followed a stretch from August 1-15 where he had a 51% K rate. 

[Greg Hibbard]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

That followed a stretch from August 1-15 where he had a 51% K rate. 

So you're essentailly going to counter a 350 PA clip with a 14 day sample size? Come on, guy.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Greg Hibbard said:

So you're essentailly going to counter a 350 PA clip with a 14 day sample size? Come on, guy.

No, I'm saying that starting with August 17 is as arbitrary and insignificant as me randomly choosing the 16 days beforehand.

You want a general statement? He seemed to be making progress in April of this year but he has slid the wrong direction in May. If he keeps doing what he's doing the last few weeks, his numbers will slowly slide back down. We need to see the April version of him more.

[Greg Hibbard]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

No, I'm saying that starting with August 17 is as arbitrary and insignificant as me randomly choosing the 16 days beforehand.

You want a general statement? He seemed to be making progress in April of this year but he has slid the wrong direction in May. If he keeps doing what he's doing the last few weeks, his numbers will slowly slide back down. We need to see the April version of him more. 

What do you think his K rate will be for 2019?

[Balta1701]

Just now, Greg Hibbard said:

What do you think his K rate will be for 2019?

I have no idea honestly. I thought we had seen genuine improvement in April, and we did. Then May hit and things went the wrong way. I do not know who this player is right now or who he will be even in June.

[Greg Hibbard]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I have no idea honestly. I thought we had seen genuine improvement in April, and we did. Then May hit and things went the wrong way. I do not know who this player is right now or who he will be even in June.

He will be within a half percent of 28.1% in my opinion.

[Jose Abreu]

43 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I have no idea honestly. I thought we had seen genuine improvement in April, and we did. Then May hit and things went the wrong way. I do not know who this player is right now or who he will be even in June.

What has gone the wrong way though? Is a marginal increase in K-rate over a 3 week span really that big of a deal? If you ask me, the biggest difference between April and May is that his BABIP dropped from .370 in April (slightly above career average) to .326 for May (slightly below career average). His overall numbers, as a result, seem like a decent indicator of what he'll be moving forward to me. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

Doesn't Moncada generally start a season hot, before his bat goes to sleep for a few months, and then numbers-padding in Sept/Oct?

At least, that's how remember him hitting hereto fore in his career.

[TaylorStSox]

7 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Doesn't Moncada generally start a season hot, before his bat goes to sleep for a few months, and then numbers-padding in Sept/Oct?

At least, that's how remember him hitting hereto fore in his career.

What career? He's in his 2nd full season. Jesus, dude. 

 

We've hit this weird point in sports where people get so wrapped up in their arguments that they want players that are associated with management to fail. There's not a doubt in my mind that some of you guys want him to bust because he's a Hahn/Kenny player, even though he plays for your favorite team. I see it in other sports too. The internet has created some weird phenomenons.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

15 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

What career? He's in his 2nd full season. Jesus, dude. 

 

We've hit this weird point in sports where people get so wrapped up in their arguments that they want players that are associated with management to fail. There's not a doubt in my mind that some of you guys want him to bust because he's a Hahn/Kenny player, even though he plays for your favorite team. I see it in other sports too. The internet has created some weird phenomenons.

You have the people that complain about guys that start slow but heat up after Memorial Day when the “games don’t matter” because the Sox are “out of the race” (Abreu). Now we have people that complain about a guy that does pretty much the opposite, at least so far in his very short career. People always find reasons to complain and that’s why we don’t deserve nice things.

Edited May 22, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Balta1701]

18 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

What has gone the wrong way though? Is a marginal increase in K-rate over a 3 week span really that big of a deal? If you ask me, the biggest difference between April and May is that his BABIP dropped from .370 in April (slightly above career average) to .326 for May (slightly below career average). His overall numbers, as a result, seem like a decent indicator of what he'll be moving forward to me. 

Ignoring what happened last night - is a jump in K rate from 22% in April to 33% in May a "Marginal increase"? That's a 50% jump, from the range of "really good hitter" to the range of "Threatens his own season-long strikeout rate". Maybe over 1 month the BABIP is more important, but literally the difference in that number from April to May, over the course of a season, is the difference between an MVP candidate and the Moncada we saw in 2018.

[The Sir]

1 hour ago, TaylorStSox said:

We've hit this weird point in sports where people get so wrapped up in their arguments that they want players that are associated with management to fail. There's not a doubt in my mind that some of you guys want him to bust because he's a Hahn/Kenny player, even though he plays for your favorite team. I see it in other sports too. The internet has created some weird phenomenons.

I don't want him to fail. I just fear he will fail. He did this last year. Started really hot and then cooled off for 217 Ks and a .714 OPS. I said then that he needed to limit his Ks, and he started this year by doing that, and the improvement showed. Now, in May, he's gone right back to it. Before anyone comes in here with that silly argument about whether he'll hit .300 or have an .870 OPS, I DON'T THINK THAT MATTERS. I've never thought that mattered. But to be a useful player, he needs to not strike out one third of the time. That will wreck him.

Someone a minute ago said that the biggest difference between April and May is not K-rate, but BABIP. In April, it was .370 and in May, it was .326. This is faulty. If Moncada took those respective BABIPs and kept his April HR-rate, his OPS for the month would be .859. Instead, it's .702. It's the Ks, and not the simple luck (or lack thereof) for batted balls, that's driving him downward this month.

I'm not loyal to players. I grew up and became a Sox fan because of one player, who was the greatest hitter this franchise has ever had, and we ended up invoking a "diminished skills" clause and then releasing him to free agency a few years later, instead of letting him finish his career with us. So if we weren't loyal to that guy as he sailed off into the twilight, I don't know why we'd be incessantly loyal to anyone else. So I'm loyal to the brand. I want the Chicago White Sox to win. If Moncada strikes out 33% of the time, he doesn't help us do that.

Some of you might think it's blasphemous, but excusing the difference in team control, I'd rather have Javier Baez on this team all day long. Flaunt your former #1 prospect stuff as much as you want; Baez has actually played like a star at the highest level for several years now, with constant improvement as well. If you want to win, he's the logical choice.

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, The Sir said:

I don't want him to fail. I just fear he will fail. He did this last year. Started really hot and then cooled off for 217 Ks and a .714 OPS. I said then that he needed to limit his Ks, and he started this year by doing that, and the improvement showed. Now, in May, he's gone right back to it. Before anyone comes in here with that silly argument about whether he'll hit .300 or have an .870 OPS, I DON'T THINK THAT MATTERS. I've never thought that mattered. But to be a useful player, he needs to not strike out one third of the time. That will wreck him.

Someone a minute ago said that the biggest difference between April and May is not K-rate, but BABIP. In April, it was .370 and in May, it was .326. This is faulty. If Moncada took those respective BABIPs and kept his April HR-rate, his OPS for the month would be .859. Instead, it's .702. It's the Ks, and not the simple luck (or lack thereof) for batted balls, that's driving him downward this month.

I'm not loyal to players. I grew up and became a Sox fan because of one player, who was the greatest hitter this franchise has ever had, and we ended up invoking a "diminished skills" clause and then releasing him to free agency a few years later, instead of letting him finish his career with us. So if we weren't loyal to that guy as he sailed off into the twilight, I don't know why we'd be incessantly loyal to anyone else. So I'm loyal to the brand. I want the Chicago White Sox to win. If Moncada strikes out 33% of the time, he doesn't help us do that.

Some of you might think it's blasphemous, but excusing the difference in team control, I'd rather have Javier Baez on this team all day long. Flaunt your former #1 prospect stuff as much as you want; Baez has actually played like a star at the highest level for several years now, with constant improvement as well. If you want to win, he's the logical choice.

Baez hasn't played like a star for several years now. He sucked until 2018. He has had one good year, and is carrying it over for a hot start in 2019. He has slightly more of a track record of success than Moncada. 

From 2015-2017 Baez was basically Tim Anderson in 2018 with a few more HR. 

Edited May 22, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[poppysox]

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You have the people that complain about guys that start slow but heat up after Memorial Day when the “games don’t matter” because the Sox are “out of the race” (Abreu). Now we have people that complain about a guy that does pretty much the opposite, at least so far in his very short career. People always find reasons to complain and that’s why we don’t deserve nice things.

We have nice things...just need to use them in a better way.

[The Sir]

11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Baez hasn't played like a star for several years now. He sucked until 2018. He has had one good year, and is carrying it over for a hot start in 2019. He has slightly more of a track record of success than Moncada. 

From 2015-2017 Baez was basically Tim Anderson in 2018 with a few more HR. 

He had a .796 OPS in 2017. He put up 3.2 bWAR in 2016. That might not be "star" per se, but both numbers are better than Moncada has done yet.

[mqr]

5 minutes ago, The Sir said:

He had a .796 OPS in 2017. He put up 3.2 bWAR in 2016. That might not be "star" per se, but both numbers are better than Moncada has done yet.

Let's hold off on this conversation until Moncada has been in the league for 6 years, yeah?

[TaylorStSox]

If you're going to compare Moncada to Baez, wait until Moncada is 27 too. Personally I think Moncada will be a better player, but we just don't know yet. 

[TaylorStSox]

If you compare Baez to Moncada at age 24, Moncada is slightly ahead. I think Moncada has more upside he hasn't tapped into yet, but it's going to take time to develop because he has so much going on at the plate. Being a switch hitter that likes to see a lot of pitches, he's more high maintenance. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

If you compare Baez to Moncada at age 24, Moncada is slightly ahead. I think Moncada has more upside he hasn't tapped into yet, but it's going to take time to develop because he has so much going on at the plate. Being a switch hitter that likes to see a lot of pitches, he's more high maintenance. 

Obviously we have 4 more years of team control after this one so it's ok to give him that time...the question is "If he needs several years to have a true breakout, does that mean we're not a competitive team until 2022 or 2023?"

[ron883]

3 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

If you compare Baez to Moncada at age 24, Moncada is slightly ahead. I think Moncada has more upside he hasn't tapped into yet, but it's going to take time to develop because he has so much going on at the plate. Being a switch hitter that likes to see a lot of pitches, he's more high maintenance. 

The move to third base doesn't help his value imo. Baez provides so much value with his defensive versatility. We're talking an MVP candidate

[mqr]

9 minutes ago, ron883 said:

The move to third base doesn't help his value imo. Baez provides so much value with his defensive versatility. We're talking an MVP candidate

Who was just a pretty nice player until his 3rd full season

[BackDoorBreach]

Trying to determine a trajectory for Moncada at this point is a waste of time.  He won't have the PAs to make a reasonable prediction until the end of the year.  I've posted this several times but I fully believe he is much more valuable at 2B with his offensive potential.

[TaylorStSox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Obviously we have 4 more years of team control after this one so it's ok to give him that time...the question is "If he needs several years to have a true breakout, does that mean we're not a competitive team until 2022 or 2023?"

He's carrying an 850 ops and playing good D. Moncada isn't a problem right now. 

[TaylorStSox]

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

The move to third base doesn't help his value imo. Baez provides so much value with his defensive versatility. We're talking an MVP candidate

That's really up to the team dynamic. If Madrigal develops, the Sox are a better overall team with Moncada at 3rd despite his WAR suffering. I'd rather have a better team than have Moncada have a better WAR. Defensive WAR is bullshit anyway. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, TaylorStSox said:

He's carrying an 850 ops and playing good D. Moncada isn't a problem right now. 

If Yoan Moncada continues striking out at the rate he has been in May then his end-of-year numbers will wind up looking a lot like 2018. After the game on May 23 of 2018 he had an .830 OPS. We have seen this story before, his current strikeout rate is so high that his numbers will correct if that continues.