Lucas Giolito vs. Gavin Floyd

[Jack Parkman]

As a self-proclaimed pitching junkie, I feel compelled to write this post.

I'd like feedback from my fellow posters on my info.

 

 

Giolito and Floyd had a lot of similarities before and after their trade to the Sox. I will attempt to do a comparison of the issues they faced upon their trade to the Sox. Everyone likes to make this comparison, because it is actually pretty spot on.

At the end of going through their repertoires, I will give their initial and peak scouting grades based my eye test. With Giolito, I give my future scouting grades based on if he follows a similar development path to Floyd.

 

Similarities before being traded to the Sox:

1. Fastball(2 and 4 seam)

Floyd and Giolito had elite velocity for their time. Floyd, as a top prospect, had a mid-90s fastball. Giolito had a mid-upper 90s fastball. By the time they got traded to the Sox, they were both averaging around 91, and that continued when they both first got called up for a September cup of coffee, and through Floyd's first full season. What gives me hope for Giolito, is by his 2nd full season with Coop, Floyd had returned to the elite velocity that made him the top pitching prospect in the game.

Jack Parkman's scouting grades(based on peak velocity):

Floyd:50/65

Giolito: 55/70

 

2. Curveball

Both pitchers had/have among the best curveballs one has ever seen. A Bert Blyleven level yakker. Somehow, they both were such good curveballs that they not only fool hitters, but umpires too. Floyds was a little more loopy, so it was easier for an ump to see. Giolito's is even better, IMO. However, its break is so sharp, big, and late, and more of the 12-6 variety that it fools umps more than Floyd's did.

Jack Parkman's scouting grades:

Floyd: 60/70

Giolito: 65/75

 

Now for the 2 huge differences between Floyd and Giolito's arsenal that I think will lead to Giolito being an ace and not the enigma that Floyd was:

 

 

3. Changeup

Floyd had a changeup that was more of a show me pitch than an out pitch. He had trouble throwing it for strikes, and when he did it got hit hard. Not a lot of break either. He could only fool hitters by speed and not location/movement.

Giolito has a wicked changeup, that he can throw for strikes and fool hitters with both speed and movement. this pitch alone should separate Floyd and Giolito significantly.

 

Jack Parkman's scouting grades:

Floyd:40/40

Giolito :60/65

 

 

4. Slider

Floyd had a slider that he could throw for strikes more reliably than his curveball, but it wasn't a sharp breaker and didn't have much movement. It fooled hitters because because it was almost the exact same speed as his change up but it actually had a little break. It also got hit hard when a hitter identified it.

Giolito's slider is more than good enough to be a stand-alone breaking ball. It is a plus pitch in and of itself and he could ditch his curveball if he wanted and probably be fine. It has sharp break and good tilt(11-5 movement) and generates many swings and misses. This pitch is what puts Giolito's arsenal over the top, and among the best 4-pitch repertoires I've ever seen.

Jack Parkman's scouting grades:

Floyd: 40/45

Giolito:60/65

 

 

Conclusion:

While the Fastball/Curveball similarities beg the comparison, it ends there because Giolito's change and slider are both significantly superior pitches to Floyd's change and slider. I believe that Giolito has the arsenal to completely ditch the curveball for a start if he's not commanding it or getting called strikes due to fooling the ump. If Floyd didn't have his curve going, he was a below average pitcher, while I think that Giolito could pitch to ace-level despite not having his curveball for a long stretch of starts, due to the high quality of his changeup and slider, provided his fastball returns to elite velocity in a similar trajectory to Floyd. I believe over time, Giolito will become primarily Fastball/Slider/Changeup, while experimenting with his curveball in the first couple innings to see if he can catch strikes with it. I do think that even if Giolito's fastball remains at 91-93, he can become a solid #2 or high end #3 because his arsenal of offspeed pitches is so good, and even at that speed he has enough spin to miss bats with his fastball. Overall, Giolito has a superior arsenal to Floyd, which is why I think he will not be as inconsistent as Floyd was. It may take a full season or so, but I think that patience is necessary with Giolito to reap the rewards. I ask my fellow posters to not be so quick to throw him under the bus. The reward could be huge. There is a reason why Giolito was once the top pitching prospect in the game, along with being as high as #3 overall on prospect lists. If everything goes right, he could be one of the best RHP in baseball. Think Kluber or Verlander.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[hi8is]

Kudos to you.

[caulfield12]

I agree with most everything you wrote except Giolito having an advantage over Floyd's curveball.

 

Potentially, sure. But the consistency isn't there yet with that pitch at the big league level. Granted, it's terrible weather in which to judge curveballs and sliders due to the difficulty gripping the ball, especially pitchers with smaller hands.

 

Giolito's big advantage is his cerebral and thoughtful personality...and his ability to adapt/evolve. After Floyd's initial success in the late 2000's, he kind of stopped getting better. He plateaued, in other words. He started to look more like Javy Vazquez (inconsistent) than a front-line/ace caliber starter like he was for most of 2008. Giolito hasn't had nearly the minor league struggles, but he has taken a pretty significant to his prospect status in 18 months (going from the best RH MILB pitching prospect with a 95-98 MPH heater to a more pedestrian FB).

 

The more recent articles about his "leverage" due to his body length (the ball getting on hitters faster, perception-wise) and spin rates and other issues related to Giolito have been pretty positive.

 

Just want to get to early May or a warm weather stadium when we can start to see what he really has for this year (unless he's going through a dreaded dead-arm period out of ST.)

 

(Not sure Hahn would appreciate your "spinning" his acquisition as a reclamation/change of scenery move.)

Edited April 9, 2018 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

I agree with most everything you wrote except Giolito having an advantage over Floyd's curveball.

 

Potentially, sure. But the consistency isn't there yet with that pitch at the big league level. Granted, it's terrible weather in which to judge curveballs and sliders due to the difficulty gripping the ball, especially pitchers with smaller hands.

 

Giolito's big advantage is his cerebral and thoughtful personality...and his ability to adapt/evolve. After Floyd's initial success in the late 2000's, he kind of stopped getting better. He plateaued, in other words. He started to look more like Javy Vazquez (inconsistent) than a front-line/ace caliber starter like he was for most of 2008. Giolito hasn't had nearly the minor league struggles, but he has taken a pretty significant to his prospect status in 18 months (going from the best RH MILB pitching prospect with a 95-98 MPH heater to a more pedestrian FB).

 

The more recent articles about his "leverage" due to his body length (the ball getting on hitters faster, perception-wise) and spin rates and other issues related to Giolito have been pretty positive.

 

Just want to get to early May or a warm weather stadium when we can start to see what he really has for this year (unless he's going through a dreaded dead-arm period out of ST.)

 

(Not sure Hahn would appreciate your "spinning" his acquisition as a reclamation/change of scenery move.)

If Giolito wasn't a change of scenery move, he most likely wouldn't have been available under any circumstances.

 

OTOH, I struggled over who to give the advantage on for their curveballs. I think that in terms of fooling hitters, Giolito's curve has the potential to be better than Floyd's. Their curveballs are different, but each devastating pitches in their own right. I actually think given more evidence, Floyd's could end up being better but Giolito's has the potential to do so. We all remember Floyd at his major league peak so I tried to remember Floyd with the curve during his first full season. I looked at 3 factors: break(sharpness/lateness/inches of break) , getting called strikes, and swing and miss potential. I determined that Giolito's curve has better break, as well as swing and miss potential, but Floyd's curve had a better chance of getting called strikes with it. Between the two, Giolito has the better pitch per se, but Floyd may have had a better chance of it being usable in more of his starts. Mostly because a hitter doesn't have to worry about a pitch if the pitcher can't get it over the plate. I don't know if someone could have a breaking ball too good to be usable, because it fools umps as much or more than hitters, but if there was one it would be Giolito's curve. Based on the strike zone graphics he throws it for strikes more than one would think, but the break is so big, sharp and late that it fools umps into thinking it is low. Floyd's was more loopy and appeared to go up before going down. It didn't fool umps nearly as much as Giolito's curve does. Giolito's curve is also faster velocity wise than Floyd's was. Floyd's curve was 76-78 mph where Giolito's is 78-80. That also doesn't help things, as the ump has less time to recognize it has hit the zone. I decided at the end, that I'd grade the pitch based on the pitch itself rather than human factors. If I took the usability due to getting called strikes with it into account, I would have given the advantage to Floyd. But I concerned myself with what the pitcher himself could control.

 

Also, Giolito comes across as a really bright kid, and probably is actually smart. Floyd always seemed like he was your prototypical dumb jock. That helps things immensely in Giolito's favor, especially with learning how to pitch.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[SoxAce]

Not a chance Gio's curve is better than Floyd's and I love me some Gio overall.

[Chicago White Sox]

I think the days of a 70 FV fastball projection are done with and his ability to become a legit TOR starter will depend on his secondary offerings. Other than the curveball, those pitches have come a long way. And while I didn’t get to see him a ton in spring training, he finally demonstrated that plus curveball on a consistent basis in his start against the Cubs. I do disagree with the notion that he can completely abdandon his curve and a TOR starter. He’ll need to learn how to pitch without it at times and he seems to have enough quality offerings now to survive, but that curveball needs to be his biggest weapon if he wants to dominate on a consistent basis.

[Jack Parkman]

I think the days of a 70 FV fastball projection are done with and his ability to become a legit TOR starter will depend on his secondary offerings. Other than the curveball, those pitches have come a long way. And while I didn?€™t get to see him a ton in spring training, he finally demonstrated that plus curveball on a consistent basis in his start against the Cubs. I do disagree with the notion that he can completely abdandon his curve and a TOR starter. He?€™ll need to learn how to pitch without it at times and he seems to have enough quality offerings now to survive, but that curveball needs to be his biggest weapon if he wants to dominate on a consistent basis.

I wouldn't be so quick to write it off, due to Floyd being able to get his fastball velo back eventually. Gio might not get his back, but I do expect him to gain some back. Not expecting him to average 91 forever. Have you seen Gio's slider when he breaks it out? It's wicked. Have you ever seen a breaking ball from him that looks like a 11-5 curve but is faster and a little less break? That is his slider. Read my addendum to why I think that Gio's curve has the potential to be better than Floyd's. It's really close and I think you can argue either way.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[fathom]

Not a chance Gio's curve is better than Floyd's and I love me some Gio overall.

 

Yep Gavin had a great curve. So far in the majors, Giolito has had a well below average curve. As they mentioned, he only got two swing and misses on it last year

[he gone.]

I'm not sure a 23 year old who's pitched in the majors for part of his 21 and 22 year old campaigns can be called a reclamation project..... but other than the title I enjoyed your post! Not trying to nitpick... I just think we are awfully tough on Gio. If he wasn't rushed by the Nats his first taste of the majors woulda been with us last year and he passed my expectations by far.

[bmags]

Yep Gavin had a great curve. So far in the majors, Giolito has had a well below average curve. As they mentioned, he only got two swing and misses on it last year

 

It's frustrating because I haven't seen him have it in a pro game. Last year I believe him on how the ball was different in majors and he lacked a feel for it, then he showed it in spring.

 

Now I guess we blame the cold (sox pitchers seem to be only ones in league who were hurt by cold weather).

 

But you saw how much it helped Fulmer to actually have it in his start. I don't know if the curve will be his out pitch, but starting a hitter off on that for 0-1 is a really nice weapon to set up his high 4-seam and low change-ups.

[FloydBannister1983]

I'm usually one of the most pessimistic posters here. Jack Parkman's law says Murphy was an optimist.

 

If everything goes right, he [Giolito] could be one of the best RHP in baseball. Think Kluber or Verlander.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

It's frustrating because I haven't seen him have it in a pro game. Last year I believe him on how the ball was different in majors and he lacked a feel for it, then he showed it in spring.

 

Now I guess we blame the cold (sox pitchers seem to be only ones in league who were hurt by cold weather).

 

But you saw how much it helped Fulmer to actually have it in his start. I don't know if the curve will be his out pitch, but starting a hitter off on that for 0-1 is a really nice weapon to set up his high 4-seam and low change-ups.

I saw Giolito warming up during a game last year dropping wicked curveballs. They were dropping like a yo yo. Then when the game resumed, he didn't have it. It's there, hopefully they can get it to come out.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

TO me, I think the most similar thing between the two pitchers is the lack of confidence they have had at the bottoms of their performances. The Sox did manage to turn Gavin back into a pretty solid middle of the rotation pitcher for a number of years, at least until the end of his stay here.

 

I get the feeling that Giolito is scaling back his stuff at times to be more accurate than "stuff" with his pitches, which is why we see the lack of spin on his off-speed stuff and the lack of velocity on his hard stuff. It seems like when he is more comfortable that the "stuff" comes back, and when he isn't, we get more of a feel pitcher. Hopefully as the weather improves and he starts to believe he belongs on a major league roster, the stuff comes back. I mean he can exist in the middle/end of a rotation with what he has now, but he could anchor a rotation with his stuff. Let's hope the rebuild of Lucas continues.

[chitownsportsfan]

Good read all around. Thanks for the comparisons and I do agree with others that Floyd's curveball is better than Gio's right now. Floyd was always at two pitch pitcher though and as noted Gio's changeup is the difference between the two. Gio can have much more lasting success than Floyd if he can harness all his stuff.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Whenever I read about curve balls I often wonder if the best curve ballers throw them at different speed with varying degrees of break on on them. I know the best do that but it's not something you read about very often. You do hear Hawk bring it up occasionally.

 

So I am asking did Floyd or does Gio threw/throw different versions of the curve ?

[Dick Allen]

Whenever I read about curve balls I often wonder if the best curve ballers throw them at different speed with varying degrees of break on on them. I know the best do that but it's not something you read about very often. You do hear Hawk bring it up occasionally.

 

So I am asking did Floyd or does Gio threw/throw different versions of the curve ?

I know Gio has a couple of versions.

[southsider2k5]

Whenever I read about curve balls I often wonder if the best curve ballers throw them at different speed with varying degrees of break on on them. I know the best do that but it's not something you read about very often. You do hear Hawk bring it up occasionally.

 

So I am asking did Floyd or does Gio threw/throw different versions of the curve ?

 

Occasionally Steve Stone will talk about tempo on a curveball as well. It is an interesting listen.

[ChiSoxJon]

Are we all aware that pre-Draft Gio was a lock to go #1 until he needed TJS? He's lost a bit of velocity since he was 18 but I'm not sure we all realize this (Not that it has to do with this post)

 

If there was no Kopech, Gio would be an ace as he still has ace potential (The TOR Broadcast also compared Lopez to Severino)

[caulfield12]

Pitching is fickle...just look at Aiken and Tyler Kolek, not to mention Rodon.

 

As long as he’s a competent 3/4 guy and Lopez or Dunning also make it as starters or relievers, it’s still a big net win for the Sox...particularly as the cost of competent young pitching on the FA market goes up and up.

 

Where would the Sox rotation be today with Eaton but no trade made (and Eaton’s value down a bit comingboff acseason-ending injury)?

[LittleHurt05]

This may be an unpopular opinion, but If Gio has a similar career to Floyd, it would be a great outcome for the Sox.

[pcq]

Are we all aware that pre-Draft Gio was a lock to go #1 until he needed TJS? He's lost a bit of velocity since he was 18 but I'm not sure we all realize this (Not that it has to do with this post)

 

If there was no Kopech, Gio would be an ace as he still has ace potential (The TOR Broadcast also compared Lopez to Severino)

I don't see Gio as a reclamation. Floyd had a lot more downs than ups. Might be available.

[GermanSoxFan]

This may be an unpopular opinion, but If Gio has a similar career to Floyd, it would be a great outcome for the Sox.

 

 

I agree with you. Gavin was a really good pitcher until injuries derailed his career.

If Moncada turns into the next Ray Durham I won't be complaining either.

[Dam8610]

I agree with you. Gavin was a really good pitcher until injuries derailed his career.

If Moncada turns into the next Ray Durham I won't be complaining either.

 

Some of these guys have to become stars for this to work. Rarely does a roster full of above average players win the whole thing. You need star players surrounded by average-above average players.

[Special K]

Some of these guys have to become stars for this to work. Rarely does a roster full of above average players win the whole thing. You need star players surrounded by average-above average players.

 

As a very brief aside, is the ‘05 team the last World Series team to win a championship without a bona fide star?

[Jose Abreu]

As a very brief aside, is the ‘05 team the last World Series team to win a championship without a bona fide star?

2015 Royals were pretty star-free, right?