Abreu and the Hall of Fame

[Greg Hibbard]

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/...-in-cooperstown

 

This article on ESPN today gives no mention of Jose Abreu.

 

Yes, yes - I know - it's ESPN, and they love ignoring the White Sox at every turn.

 

I also know that Abreu started old, and has borderline numbers with an expected dropoff as he gets older.

 

Nevertheless, I think this is an interesting question - if Jose has 6 more years identical to the average of the previous 4, how borderline is he then? I don't think that's necessary unrealistic.

 

An .882 OPS puts him in the top 100 all time in that category, and he'd have 300 homers, 350 doubles and a .300 batting average with 1000 RBIs. Would he be close? Or just in the hall of "very good"?

[Chisoxfn]

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/...-in-cooperstown

 

This article on ESPN today gives no mention of Jose Abreu.

 

Yes, yes - I know - it's ESPN, and they love ignoring the White Sox at every turn.

 

I also know that Abreu started old, and has borderline numbers with an expected dropoff as he gets older.

 

Nevertheless, I think this is an interesting question - if Jose has 6 more years identical to the average of the previous 4, how borderline is he then? I don't think that's necessary unrealistic.

 

An .882 OPS puts him in the top 100 all time in that category, and he'd have 300 homers, 350 doubles and a .300 batting average with 1000 RBIs. Would he be close? Or just in the hall of "very good"?

I don't think he would be even close. I think his coming over at an older age would have impacted him. Counting stats just aren't good enough.

[Chisoxfn]

Said another way, look at Paulie's stats. They were very good as well, obviously more seasons, etc, but good OPS, lots of HR's, etc. Paulie has zero chance of being a hall of famer. He's in the hall of very good and very far away from being a HOFer.

[flavum]

If Abreu plays 10 years with his current career rates, I’d think he would have a special case considering his background.

 

Different circumstances, but he’s possibly this era’s Minoso, and Minnie got screwed.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/...-in-cooperstown

 

This article on ESPN today gives no mention of Jose Abreu.

 

Yes, yes - I know - it's ESPN, and they love ignoring the White Sox at every turn.

 

I also know that Abreu started old, and has borderline numbers with an expected dropoff as he gets older.

 

Nevertheless, I think this is an interesting question - if Jose has 6 more years identical to the average of the previous 4, how borderline is he then? I don't think that's necessary unrealistic.

 

An .882 OPS puts him in the top 100 all time in that category, and he'd have 300 homers, 350 doubles and a .300 batting average with 1000 RBIs. Would he be close? Or just in the hall of "very good"?

 

Because of his Cuban years, he'd have to do something to get a nice resume build. We are talking some MVP consideration years, leading a team to the World Series, etc.

 

I don't think six more years of the status quo is nearly enough. I think he'd be a guy around 10% with a resume like that.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I'm going to say no chance in hell. Hall of Very Good, sure.

 

But just going off fWAR. Let's say Abreu has a 3.3 WAR season, which is about his average so far. That puts him at an 18 career WAR for 5 seasons. If he sustains that for 5 more years (age 36 season), that's a WAR of 36 for 1B.

 

Other historic 1B who had a WAR around that 36 number (+/- 2)....

 

Derek Lee - 34.6 WAR

Wally Joyner - 36.2 WAR

Adrian Gonzalez - 36.8 WAR

 

Are any of them HoF caliber guys either? And that's based on the premise of him staying steady and healthy in his traditionally declining years.

 

 

So, still, no chance.

 

[Jose Abreu]

While the numbers are good enough (if they sustain), he simply came over too late.

[3GamesToLove]

No.

[Balta1701]

While the numbers are good enough (if they sustain), he simply came over too late.

In 2014 he put up the highest OPS amongst 1b.

2015: 7th

2016: 10th

2017: 6th

 

So far in his career, on average, he's the 6th best 1st baseman in MLB most years. Those numbers are not good enough.

[maxjusttyped]

In 2014 he put up the highest OPS amongst 1b.

2015: 7th

2016: 10th

2017: 6th

 

So far in his career, on average, he's the 6th best 1st baseman in MLB most years. Those numbers are not good enough.

He's a below average defender and plays in a favorable hitters park, too. By fWAR he's ranked 2nd, 10th, 14th, and 5th. He's a very good player, but nowhere near HoF worthy.

[Jose Abreu]

In 2014 he put up the highest OPS amongst 1b.

2015: 7th

2016: 10th

2017: 6th

 

So far in his career, on average, he's the 6th best 1st baseman in MLB most years. Those numbers are not good enough.

Sadly hall of fame voters don't care about OPS. They care about HR, RBI, and AVG, and as irrelevant as some of those may be, I think they qualify as good enough. Of course, it's moot since he came over at 27.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

HAHAHAHAHAHA Delete this post now before your friends see it

[Greg Hibbard]

Yeah, my friends have seen it. It's cool. They like to talk about the White Sox, you see.

[Balta1701]

Sadly hall of fame voters don't care about OPS. They care about HR, RBI, and AVG, and as irrelevant as some of those may be, I think they qualify as good enough. Of course, it's moot since he came over at 27.

In order, HR and RBI amongst 1b:

2014: 2nd and 3rd

2015: 5th and tied for 3rd

2016: 3 way tie for 9th and 5th

2017: 7th and 4th

 

The only time he led any of the categories you refer to was in 2014 where he had the highest batting average amongst 1b, outside of that he's consistently "top 5-10 out of 1b".

 

If he'd kept up his 2014 production for 5 years, this might be a valid conversation and we'd be figuring out how to deal with his cuban time, but right now he's a solid but not great 1b with the bat.

[Sleepy Harold]

Wouldn't that be something, Jose goes from DFA-worthy to possible HOF-worthy...quite the career 180 if you ask me

[Balta1701]

Wouldn't that be something, Jose goes from DFA-worthy to possible HOF-worthy...quite the career 180 if you ask me

[Sleepy Harold]

For reference this classic Soxtalk gem. This one too. #JokesAreFun

[Jose Abreu]

For reference this classic Soxtalk gem. This one too. #JokesAreFun

This one too!

[Sleepy Harold]

This one too!

That is a good one, it's a shame I missed it.

[chitownsportsfan]

I know it's been a cold start to spring in Chicago but put down the booze.

[Richie]

It's kind of along the same lines as Paulie. Really good, really consistent. However, just not phenomenal. Never had (and likely won't have) a stretch where he just dominates the game.

[Texsox]

And while we call it the Baseball HoF and we hold a World Series, we don't really mean the world and we really don't mean all of baseball.

[ron883]

:lol: I'm sorry my friend, but you must have seen the date incorrectly. Today is April 10, not April 1. Abreu is nowhere near HOF calibur. Not even close. Soxtalk overrates Abreu like crazy.

[hogan873]

:lol: I'm sorry my friend, but you must have seen the date incorrectly. Today is April 10, not April 1. Abreu is nowhere near HOF calibur. Not even close. Soxtalk overrates Abreu like crazy.

Quite the opposite in my opinion. There are posts and threads that may overrate him, but I believe he's under-appreciated here. That being said, I don't see him being a Hall of Famer. He's a great hitter and an average first baseman. Unless he plays for a lot longer than we'd think, he wouldn't get to that magic number of 500 home runs.

[Greg Hibbard]

I think it's fascinating so many see this as a ridiculous notion worth making fun of. Yeah, I get that he's not currently projected at that pace. I get that he was brought in late. He's a still a very, very, very good offensive player.

 

It's not out of the realm of possibility that Jose actually improves a bit in the thirties. The guy he's most often compared to in this thread, Paul Konerko, had a pretty amazing run from 33-36. In fact, that was the best 4 year stretch of his career.

 

With a little luck and a little longevity, I could see Jose ending up with close to 400 HR and 400 doubles. For someone who started his ML career at 27, that's pretty amazing.

 

He could also turn out to be just another above average 1st baseman.

 

I agree with the poster who said he is underrated here. You only have to click on the links referenced to see why. I find it fascinating that a handful of people on Soxtalk seemingly love to hate on this guy.

 

Maybe it's the product of the doldrums era we live in, but I've never seen such vitriol for the best player on the team, the face of the franchise. Especially because he's an all around good human being, too.

Edited April 11, 2018 by Greg Hibbard