Race for the worst 2018 record (Top 5 pick) again

[Eminor3rd]

1 minute ago, wrathofhahn said:

Maybe 20 years ago. Now it's all about slugging percentage and to a slightly lesser extent OBP. If you can't hit for power in todays MLB your path is extremely narrow to make it in the MLB and your upside is limited.

And lets not pretend either that these questions didn't surround Madrigal at the time. Some scouts chose to ignore them others did not. For me it never was his hit tool I don't care what a persons average is for the most part if they both have similar OBP what I care about is SLG%. 

I hope he turns things around he has maybe two years to do so as a prospect.

 

Hit tool is a major factor in OBP, and with power more prevalent than ever and contact rarer than ever, the elite hit tool has only become more scarce. They'll be able to buy as many low-OBP, high-SLG dudes as they can fit into the lineup. If he ends up being an empty average guy like Dee Gordon, I'd agree that he'll be disappointing, but scouts are factoring that stuff into their hit grades.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the homer surge of the past few seasons appears to be exclusively an MLB effect. Guys that never showed plus power are adding homers after they get to the show. Whether that's a ball thing or something else, there appears to be at least a good chance Madrigal will add 5 or so homers a year once he gets called up -- assuming nothing drastically changes with the ball/league effects in the meantime.

[southsider2k5]

43 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Some of us saw it coming. Forget Gorman try trading him for Groshans. I never liked the pick we bought into he's a gamer hype rather then his future profile everytime you do that you get burned.

If you look at modern baseball and what his skills project out as he should have been 1A/2nd round pick. Huge mistake and I said it at the time but what can you do? He's almost 22 so he probably doesn't have a ton of time left as a prospect maybe 2 years all you can do is cross your fingers and hope he proves you wrong.,

It is just as easy to say people don't like him because of his size.

[Dominikk85]

30 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Maybe 20 years ago. Now it's all about slugging percentage and to a slightly lesser extent OBP. If you can't hit for power in todays MLB your path is extremely narrow to make it in the MLB and your upside is limited.

And lets not pretend either that these questions didn't surround Madrigal at the time. Some scouts chose to ignore them others did not. For me it never was his hit tool I don't care what a persons average is for the most part if they both have similar OBP what I care about is SLG%. 

I hope he turns things around he has maybe two years to do so as a prospect.

 

Well all people in the industry had madrigal near the top.  Also many people believe he can turn into a 15-20 homer guy with a couple pounds more and a slight change to the swing path. Longenhagen had madrigal and mize as the two best guys.

 

Now if madrigal really turns  out to be a 5 homer guy that wouldn't be good but most scouts see him at least at 10-15

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

People who dissect prospects for a living have him ranked the 2nd best prospect out of 2018 draft. Your bolded comment had no basis in reality other than just throwing shit at a wall. 

I agree. Using phrases "like some of us saw this coming" and " I hope he turns things around"just make a mockery of just how beat up the kid is now,the long emotional ride of winning the college world series and the incredibly small sample size after all those other things . I don't even know what it was he saw coming. Give him a year of full season ball and some time to take a breather for heavens sake before you rip the guy to shreds.

[GGajewski18]

On 8/17/2018 at 2:10 PM, footlongcomiskeydog said:

Was Madrigal the best player available? Try trading him for Gorman or Kelenic right now. 

What's impressive about a .236 average, .296 obp and a strikeout rate of 40% in low A?  The home runs? He's 18?

We have a kid by the name of Bryce Bush we got in the 33rd round who does not strikeout, hits for some power and pretty well average.  Should we of taken him 4th overall?

[GGajewski18]

On top of that, he has huge concerns that he actually does stick at 3B.  So, if he doesn't, he probably moves to 1B.  Would he be Zack Collins then?  Low average, decent obp (Collins has better plate discipline, yes I know the age difference), but you see how this game works?

Gorman is 30 games into his pro career.  He's has major concerns with his hit tool and where he's going to play in the field. So next time, let's present all facts, and not jump on someone's jock after a month of baseball.

This is not knocking Gorman at all either.  I like him as a player. It's just that Madrigal definitely has better tools (hit, speed, fielding) Gorman just has louder tools (Power)

Edited August 27, 2018 by GGajewski18

[wrathofhahn]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

Hit tool is a major factor in OBP, and with power more prevalent than ever and contact rarer than ever, the elite hit tool has only become more scarce. They'll be able to buy as many low-OBP, high-SLG dudes as they can fit into the lineup. If he ends up being an empty average guy like Dee Gordon, I'd agree that he'll be disappointing, but scouts are factoring that stuff into their hit grades.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the homer surge of the past few seasons appears to be exclusively an MLB effect. Guys that never showed plus power are adding homers after they get to the show. Whether that's a ball thing or something else, there appears to be at least a good chance Madrigal will add 5 or so homers a year once he gets called up -- assuming nothing drastically changes with the ball/league effects in the meantime.

Just because something is scarce doesn't make it more valuable. I choose it look at it another way the league is adjusting to the data that is out there on these players.

I also don't buy he'll all of sudden hit homruns/power once he gets to the ML. How did that work for Tilson?

In any case like the other post said it's still early enough that there is still some time. Lets hope he eats his spinach in the offseason.

[southsider2k5]

Let's be honest here.  Madrigal's floor is pretty much untouched in this years draft.  The chances of his being a major leaguer are higher than pretty much anyone else in this draft.

[footlongcomiskeydog]

21 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

What's impressive about a .236 average, .296 obp and a strikeout rate of 40% in low A?  The home runs? He's 18?

We have a kid by the name of Bryce Bush we got in the 33rd round who does not strikeout, hits for some power and pretty well average.  Should we of taken him 4th overall?

Gorman's total minor league numbers right now are OBP=395, OPS=1.009, and a batting average of 312. Compare those numbers to what Madrigal has put up so far. Gorman is only 18 and already in low A. Little Nicky is three years older and only one level ahead!

Bryce Bush has been impressive so far. Let's check back on him once he makes it to full season ball.

[Jose Abreu]

I don't have any major gripe with the Madrigal pick. I preferred India but he's struggling too at the moment.

 

The only thing I do have a problem with is the idea that Moncada/Anderson need to be moved from their positions because Madrigal is gonna take one of their spots. That's just so premature to me. 

Edited August 27, 2018 by Jose Abreu

[flavum]

7 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't have any major gripe with the Madrigal pick. I preferred India but he's struggling too at the moment.

 

The only thing I do have a problem with is the idea that Moncada/Anderson need to be moved from their positions because Madrigal is gonna take one of their spots. That's just so premature to me. 

If Madrigal is on the White Sox, he’s the 2B. I don’t see any other position he would play. But he’s gotta get there first. 

[Jose Abreu]

6 minutes ago, flavum said:

If Madrigal is on the White Sox, he’s the 2B. I don’t see any other position he would play. But he’s gotta get there first. 

Yeah, unless he learns left field or something then I agree. But there were people who wanted one of Moncada/Anderson to move to 3B/outfield or whatever now because second base is Madrigal's. There's a long way to go before we get to that point. 

[flavum]

5 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Yeah, unless he learns left field or something then I agree. But there were people who wanted one of Moncada/Anderson to move to 3B/outfield or whatever now because second base is Madrigal's. There's a long way to go before we get to that point. 

The Sox will have some tough/important decisions to make over the next couple years. They can’t settle for “good enough” and then find out it’s not good enough. Moving Moncada to third base isn’t something I would be against, but he needs to be all-in too. Again, really tough decisions are coming.

[Eminor3rd]

2 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Just because something is scarce doesn't make it more valuable. I choose it look at it another way the league is adjusting to the data that is out there on these players.

I also don't buy he'll all of sudden hit homruns/power once he gets to the ML. How did that work for Tilson?

In any case like the other post said it's still early enough that there is still some time. Lets hope he eats his spinach in the offseason.

It didn't work for Tilson, or many other bad players with fringe tools. It HAS worked for many good players with good tools. Ozzie Albies, for example, has a very similar toolset and body type. It won't happen to all of them, but it is a trend and therefore a factor.

I, too, hope he eats more spinach.

[caulfield12]

Hawkins and Mitchell looked good their first seasons too...what did it matter, in the end?

[caulfield12]

Hawkins and Mitchell looked good their first seasons too...what did it matter, in the end?

Madrigal has had three pretty significant injuries in the span of one year.  Let’s see how he does when he’s 100%.  Besides the fact that baseball is tilting so far in one direction, the skill set that Madrigal has right now is eventually going to come back into vogue...like the players on the Royals, or, further back, the Piranha Twins of 2002-2006.

On defense and speed alone, he will be worth at least 1.5 fWAR without even taking into consideration his offensive game.  He’s a hard worker, he will get things figured out quickly enough.

[SCCWS]

Heard a beat writer say the other day that "a player isn't a prospect until he has succeded at AA. Every team has a bunch of players who put up great numbers in A leagues." 

Edited August 27, 2018 by SCCWS

[GGajewski18]

4 hours ago, footlongcomiskeydog said:

Gorman's total minor league numbers right now are OBP=395, OPS=1.009, and a batting average of 312. Compare those numbers to what Madrigal has put up so far. Gorman is only 18 and already in low A. Little Nicky is three years older and only one level ahead!

Bryce Bush has been impressive so far. Let's check back on him once he makes it to full season ball.

You say let's see what he's doing once he makes it to full season ball.  You took Gorman's total numbers rather than his numbers in full season A ball, in which I gave.  Because the league in which Gorman and Bush are/did really well in, the  Appalachian League, is extremely hitter friendly.  

Little Nicky was rated the best hit tool in the draft with above average defense and speed.  On top of that, out for half the year with a wrist injury, which if you don't know is the absolute worst for hitters, and now battling a bruised thumb, AND a college season twice as long as the HS season.   So, I think it's unfair to judge Madrigal 35 games into his pro career.

If your judging off this many games, you probably thought Courtney Hawkins was going to be here for 10+ years hitting third.  Get off the ledge dude.

[wrathofhahn]

8 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Let's be honest here.  Madrigal's floor is pretty much untouched in this years draft.  The chances of his being a major leaguer are higher than pretty much anyone else in this draft.

The thing is 3 WAR players are easy to get either via trade or FA. Teams aren't overpaying for middling above average players the way they used to.

So personally I'd rather have us shoot for the stars for the next Lindor rather then settle for someone with a good floor but low ceiling. Go out and trade for those guys if you have holes and try instead to find cornerstone young players in the draft that is where the surplus value is. Not to mention Madrigal doesn't even fill a need. Anderson is an already 3ish player and Moncada is a top prospect at 2B.

But what done is done. I raised all these things at the time all I can do is hope Madrigal proves me wrong.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

The thing is 3 WAR players are easy to get either via trade or FA. Teams aren't overpaying for middling above average players the way they used to.

So personally I'd rather have us shoot for the stars for the next Lindor rather then settle for someone with a good floor but low ceiling. Go out and trade for those guys if you have holes and try instead to find cornerstone young players in the draft that is where the surplus value is. Not to mention Madrigal doesn't even fill a need. Anderson is an already 3ish player and Moncada is a top prospect at 2B.

But what done is done. I raised all these things at the time all I can do is hope Madrigal proves me wrong.

Madrigal isn't a low ceiling.

Also, posting on a message board isn't going to change anything, so I am not sure what raising your concerns is for.

You don't draft for need. 

Teams still bid for talent,  what they aren't overpaying for is guys who can't play a position. That is not Madrigal.

If Madrigal really doesn't have a place to play when he is ready he will be the surplus value that we can trade for a need.

And it is done. Reveling in our players struggles so as to be "right" is just a miserable way to be a "fan".

[wrathofhahn]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Madrigal isn't a low ceiling.

Also, posting on a message board isn't going to change anything, so I am not sure what raising your concerns is for.

You don't draft for need. 

Teams still bid for talent,  what they aren't overpaying for is guys who can't play a position. That is not Madrigal.

If Madrigal really doesn't have a place to play when he is ready he will be the surplus value that we can trade for a need.

And it is done. Reveling in our players struggles so as to be "right" is just a miserable way to be a "fan".

Why do any of us post here or use twitter? It's mainly to vent and yell at the clouds as a fan of the sox. It certainly would be easier as a fan to believe there is a pot of gold at the end of every rainbow but that is just not how I'm wired.

Also nowhere did I revel in his struggles if that was the impression I gave then that was a mistake on my part. I'm just really frustrated with how the season went from the trade deadline to the draft to how some of the players haven't taken the step forward we thought they would. 

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

The thing is 3 WAR players are easy to get either via trade or FA. 

If that were the case then winning a World Series every year would be laughably easy. A team full of 3 WAR players would be the greatest sports team ever assembled. 

[wrathofhahn]

23 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

If that were the case then winning a World Series every year would be laughably easy. A team full of 3 WAR players would be the greatest sports team ever assembled. 

Yeah I wanted to go back and edit to 2WAR but the edit button didn't work. That's fair. Anyways at this point I'm just beating a dead horse can't wait for football season to start so I can get away from the whitesox for a bit and the negativity of this year. I was really excited for the rebuild originally and was hoping we get some more young players and sort of finish the teardown. Instead of we just got stuck in no mans land and wasted the entire year.

 

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

Yeah I wanted to go back and edit to 2WAR but the edit button didn't work. That's fair. Anyways at this point I'm just beating a dead horse can't wait for football season to start so I can get away from the whitesox for a bit and the negativity of this year. I was really excited for the rebuild originally and was hoping we get some more young players and sort of finish the teardown. Instead of we just got stuck in no mans land and wasted the entire year.

It isn't so bad. I know you didn't want Madrigal from the beginning but it's time to just relax and just hope he turns out to be a good hitter. Makes no sense to get all worked up about a kid that's been banged up and hardly had any time to sit back and savor what he and his team accomplished in college.Guys like Moncada, Giolito and Lopez gained valuable experience and built up innings. Its not sexy and the results are mixed but its invaluable.

They may have found a future DH with Palka with the most LH power since Adam Dunn left. He's a rookie , an older rookie, but he could get better. Rodon has come back from injury very strong. Kopech's looked good in his small sample. There are good things happening , The rotation is starting to come together and Eloy showed he is the besss and in baseball time he is only 2 months from being a fixture in the lineup. Actual time we still have the off season which hopefully provides us with a few surprises.

[OmarComing25]

7 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Yeah I wanted to go back and edit to 2WAR but the edit button didn't work. That's fair. Anyways at this point I'm just beating a dead horse can't wait for football season to start so I can get away from the whitesox for a bit and the negativity of this year. I was really excited for the rebuild originally and was hoping we get some more young players and sort of finish the teardown. Instead of we just got stuck in no mans land and wasted the entire year.

 

 

 

I still don’t think 2 WAR players are that easy to get either. That was the problem with the Sale/Quintana/Eaton led teams, we couldn’t find any 2 WAR players to support them.