Race for the worst 2018 record (Top 5 pick) again

[he gone.]

I think you can count on a Top 9 pick regardless with the bottom dwellers being:

Reds, Royals, Tigers, Sox, Orioles, Marlins, Padres, Rays, Rangers.

I'd say our real competition for a top 3 pick are Marlins & Reds. Reds are a better team than they're showing but in a tough division. Marlins just don't have any pitching.

I think the Royals are better than they're showing and play in a division with us and the Tigers so we're going to beat each other up for wins. Rangers are terrible. I can see them falling fast too.

After that there's a significant jump:

Twins, Giants, A's, Pirates, Rockies, Braves, Mariners, Blue Jays, etc.

 

I'll keep this post in my memory, but after 20 or so games my guess is this:

1-Marlins

2-Rangers

3-Reds

4-Sox

5-Rays

6-Tigers

7-Royals

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 4/21/2018 at 8:48 PM, Chisoxfn said:

If Sox really are set on landing one big fish, if it isn't Harper (and in all likelihood it won't be), Arenado would be who I go after.  I get a feeling Donaldson will be who we get.  

If the Sox end up with Donaldson then we know the management team has learned nothing. You want to compete year after year then don't get older free agents . It's pretty damn simple actually.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 4/21/2018 at 8:49 PM, Chisoxfn said:

This team will absolutely get a top 5 pick; my gut tells me we will be picking top 3 and I wouldn't be shocked if we were picking #1 overall. Bullpen and rotation are so so awful.  

Never make predictions during a losing streak. Sox won't be this bad all year. Maybe top 5-10 bad but not top 3 unless Hahn trades Abreu and Moncada is affected by it.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Never make predictions during a losing streak. Sox won't be this bad all year. Maybe top 5-10 bad but not top 3 unless Hahn trades Abreu and Moncada is affected by it.

I still think a top 5-ish pick is realistic.  I still believe this will be a team that wins around 70 games.  We still have a lot of kids on the roster, and a lot of borderline veterans who if they succeed are probably getting trade, and if they fail will contribute to the downfall anyway.  As you can see from watching this team day to day the growth isn't linear.  Kids will struggle one day and be awesome the next.

[credezcrew24]

Incredible performance for the tank win today and the Sox are currently in position for the number 2 pick!

[fathom]

Can this just be called the Annual Ricky Renteria Appreciation Thread

[soxfan49]

15 minutes ago, credezcrew24 said:

Incredible performance for the tank win today and the Sox are currently in position for the number 2 pick!

It's May 9.

[soxfan49]

On ‎4‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 10:25 AM, southsider2k5 said:

I still think a top 5-ish pick is realistic.  I still believe this will be a team that wins around 70 games.  We still have a lot of kids on the roster, and a lot of borderline veterans who if they succeed are probably getting trade, and if they fail will contribute to the downfall anyway.  As you can see from watching this team day to day the growth isn't linear.  Kids will struggle one day and be awesome the next.

They'd have to play almost .500 baseball the rest of the way to win 70. If my math is right, they'll have to finish 61-67. I highly doubt this happens.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

They'd have to play almost .500 baseball the rest of the way to win 70. If my math is right, they'll have to finish 61-67. I highly doubt this happens.

I know it is fashionable to be the first to quit on things, but I feel like this team will improve as the season goes on and more talent shows up at the higher levels and guys who are hear already start to work through learning at the major league level.

[pcq]

On 4/21/2018 at 7:57 AM, caulfield12 said:

The odds on Machado and Donaldson just went down even more...there’s no point on wasting the most productive year remaining in Donaldson’s career on the 2019 team.  And Machado won’t sign unless the money is 10-15% better than the contending teams are willing to pay. 

Arenado becomes the likeliest target, unless they decide to pursue Moustakas again.

Not sure if the big name guys are a good fit. 

[soxfan49]

19 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I know it is fashionable to be the first to quit on things, but I feel like this team will improve as the season goes on and more talent shows up at the higher levels and guys who are hear already start to work through learning at the major league level.

I know we don't agree much but I'm not trying to argue. I'm also not trying to be fashionable. Quit simply, this team was built to be awful. Unless Moncada tears up the league over the summer, Giolito pitches much better, and Kopech + Eloy come up and also destroy the AL, I don't think they play borderline .500 ball. I could see them going something like 50-78 to end the season, which would mean instead of winning 6-8 games a month, they'd win 12 games a month in the last 4 months. Not great but still an improvement over April & May.

Edited May 9, 2018 by soxfan49

[southsider2k5]

Just now, soxfan49 said:

I know we don't agree much but I'm not trying to argue. I'm also not trying to be fashionable. Quit simply, this team was built to be awful. Unless Moncada tears up the league over the summer and Kopech + Eloy come up and also destroy the AL, I don't think they play borderline .500 ball. I could see them going something like 50-78 to end the season, which would mean instead of winning 6-8 games a month, they'd win 12 games a month in the last 4 months. Not great but still an improvement over April & May.

This team wasn't built to be anything but to offer openings to guys who are the leading edge of the rebuild, or could be useful pieces going forward.  Guys are learning on the job, and that is exactly what was meant to happen here.  Players will get better, and more talent will show up as the season goes on.  Those that don't get better eventually be replaced by the next people in line.

[Jose Abreu]

65-97 is my guess. In a month or two, this roster, specifically the pitching staff, will look completely different. 

[soxfan49]

1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said:

65-97 is my guess. In a month or two, this roster, specifically the pitching staff, will look completely different. 

What's your prediction on what the staff looks like in 2 months?

 

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This team wasn't built to be anything but to offer openings to guys who are the leading edge of the rebuild, or could be useful pieces going forward.  Guys are learning on the job, and that is exactly what was meant to happen here.  Players will get better, and more talent will show up as the season goes on.  Those that don't get better eventually be replaced by the next people in line.

Fair enough. I just don't believe the consistent (hopefully) improvement of Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, and Anderson + the consistency of Abreu (and hopefully Garcia when he's back) will be enough to play .500 ball.

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, soxfan49 said:

What's your prediction on what the staff looks like in 2 months?

For the rotation, subtract Gonzalez and Fulmer, add Rodon and Kopech. Maybe Fulmer stays over Shields but I think they'll just move him to the bullpen.

In the bullpen, it's really anyone's guess, but I think Gomez, Cedeno, Hamilton, and Burr could all get shots relatively soon. And I think any of them would at least be better than the Minayas and Infantes of the world.

[flavum]

9 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

65-97 is my guess. In a month or two, this roster, specifically the pitching staff, will look completely different. 

So 56-72 starting Friday. That seems very optimistic no matter what they do.

54 games left with Indians, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Astros, Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals. That’s 1/3 of a regular season. 14-40 at best?

Edited May 9, 2018 by flavum

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, flavum said:

So 56-72 starting Friday. That seems very optimistic no matter what they do.

54 games left with Indians, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Astros, Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals. That’s 1/3 of a regular season. 14-40 at best?

You also have to consider that this team, constructed as is, is not a 9-25 team. I'm not saying they're good, I'm just saying they're not this bad.

[Dick Allen]

9 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

You also have to consider that this team, constructed as is, is not a 9-25 team. I'm not saying they're good, I'm just saying they're not this bad.

I would like to think so but 4-23 vs. Non KC makes me wonder. 

 

I get the rebuild. But cheering for losses and draft position,  will make it never ending. I wonder what the biggest 2 year win jump In MLB history is. If you are counting on 2020 to be the year the Sox dominate,  they better kick it in gear soon and become just bad or you may be relying on a scale of win improvement that has never happened before.

Edited May 9, 2018 by Dick Allen

[fathom]

6 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

You also have to consider that this team, constructed as is, is not a 9-25 team. I'm not saying they're good, I'm just saying they're not this bad.

They have no pitching. Worst WHIP in the majors doesn't lie. I actually read something last week that it could get worse for the pitching as their flyball/HR ratio was lower than you would expect 

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I would like to think so but 4-23 vs. Non KC makes me wonder. 

 

I get the rebuild. But cheering for losses and draft position,  will make it never ending. I wonder what the biggest 2 year win jump In MLB history is. If you at counting on 2020 to be the year the Sox dominate,  they better kick it on year soon and become just bad or ou may be relying on a scale of won improvement that has never happened before.

Didn't Cubs go from 100 loss team to 103 win team in 2 years

[Dick Allen]

6 minutes ago, fathom said:

Didn't Cubs go from 100 loss team to 103 win team in 2 years

No. Besides 100 losses now might not get you a top 4 or 5 pick

Edited May 9, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Jack Parkman]

7 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

You also have to consider that this team, constructed as is, is not a 9-25 team. I'm not saying they're good, I'm just saying they're not this bad.

Probably not, but if the pitching stays as bad as it has been already they'll be challenging the 2003 Tigers and 1962 Mets for worst 162 game record ever. 

May I suggest the following:

If you're going to watch the MLB team's games in 2018, only care about the following players performance:

Moncada, Giolito, Fulmer, Lopez, Anderson.  These players could be here in 2020 and later.

With them, expect peaks and valleys and don't overreact to hot streaks/slumps. All 5 of them can figure it out at the MLB level, it isn't like going to AAA will help any. Sink or Swim time. The Sox aren't winning anything anyway so player development>>>>>wins. 

Also, watch the following players in hopes they become trade bait:

Rodon, Abreu, Davidson, Sanchez

These guys are have either too much accumulated service time and should be traded as soon as value dictates you get a good return and will be FA before the competitive window opens or shortly afterward. Abreu could stay, but I'd lean toward taking the best deal available because 2020 is a best case scenario right now. 

The remainder of the roster is rebuild filler and they're all lucky they have MLB jobs. No need to say more than that. For your mental and physical health, take an idgaf attitude toward them. Shrug off bad plays with "meh" reactions. 

With the exception of Burger, Hansen, and Robert the MiLB season is going about as well as you could reasonably expect, if not better.  If Hansen/Robert stay healthy the rest of the season and put their injuries behind them I expect them to perform well. The future is bright. Patience is necessary. 

 

 

 

Edited May 10, 2018 by Jack Parkman
Grammar

[Sleepy Harold]

6 minutes ago, fathom said:

Didn't Cubs go from 100 loss team to 103 win team in 2 years

They went from 101 losses in 2012 to 97 wins in 2015.

[Wanne]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Can this just be called the Annual Ricky Renteria Appreciation Thread

hahaaaa

[Wanne]

53 minutes ago, pcq said:

Not sure if the big name guys are a good fit. 

Arenado is a great fit! Doubt it happens...but great fit.  Although...the track record the past few NLers the Sox have brought over hasn't been very good.