It is going to get worse before it gets better

[Wanne]

18 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Renteria talks about winning and losing the right way. If he thinks all the little league mistakes they make are losing the right way, I am not so sure this rebuild will be a guaranteed success.

exactly.  And it worries me that they'll be to "stuck at the hip" with Renteria when the talent finally does develop.  Hopefully he'll develop with them and not just be the "caretaker".  I'll give Theo credit...he saw somebody better to lead his team and jumped on it.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Wanne

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 minutes ago, Tony said:

Just for a little more data, after Theo came in, the Cubs went 

61-101

66-96

73-89

The next year...they won 97 games. 

As it’s been said many times, straight up the Sox are going to be lucky to get anywhere close to the Cubs rebuild, because...The Cubs had a bunch of luck happen to them. BUT, the path the Sox are taking is quite similar. The first two years are very rough, the third year you want to see some improvement, and in Year 4 hopefully you are ready to go.

If the Sox win 72 games in 2020, Hahn and Williams need to have other jobs lined up. Until then, you have to see this through. 

 

I agree. You have to see it through. However when opportunities present themselves such as the bargain basement prices for FA's this off season things can be adjusted on the fly. The Sox could have been a better team this year with minimal spending and without upsetting the timeline for success since many of those I mentioned earlier signed for 1 or 2 years, The only thing that would have been affected is giving some iffy position players the chance to show they are more than what they have already shown  or some guys like Miguel Gonzales , Robbie Ross and Chris Volstad and some other relief pitchers chances to catch on with other teams.

[TaylorStSox]

17 minutes ago, Wanne said:

exactly.  And it worries me that they'll be to "stuck at the hip" with Renteria when the talent finally does develop.  Hopefully he'll develop with them and not just be the "caretaker".  I'll give Theo credit...he saw somebody better to lead his team and jumped on it.

Like in literally every other sport, good players make coaches/managers look good. There's not a whole lot baseball managers can do to lose games when they have good players. 

[Boopa1219]

2 hours ago, reiks12 said:

Hahn has job security because good results aren't expected yet

I don't think his job is anywhere close to being in danger. 

[Boopa1219]

37 minutes ago, Tony said:

Just for a little more data, after Theo came in, the Cubs went 

61-101

66-96

73-89

The next year...they won 97 games. 

As it’s been said many times, straight up the Sox are going to be lucky to get anywhere close to the Cubs rebuild, because...The Cubs had a bunch of luck happen to them. BUT, the path the Sox are taking is quite similar. The first two years are very rough, the third year you want to see some improvement, and in Year 4 hopefully you are ready to go.

If the Sox win 72 games in 2020, Hahn and Williams need to have other jobs lined up. Until then, you have to see this through. 

 

They're a nice guideline but I wouldn't be quick to compare the Sox rebuild to the Cubs rebuild because everything the Cubs did happened to work out for them and that's just unrealistic. 

[greg775]

As long as Hahn and Jerry can deal with the crowds of 10,000 in June, July and August during the week and maybe 20,000 on weekends. They have no right to expect anybody to show up to watch this disgrace of a pitching staff. You'd need your head examined to go to one of those awful matchups against equally bad Central Division teams this season unless the ticket is free or you just have to have a Sox corned beef sandwich (yum).

[Chicago White Sox]

39 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

White Sox starters are 1-9 with a 5.99 ERA.

 

Think how bad it would be without Lopez.

It’s really a shame they didn’t just cut bait with Shields and sign someone with a semblance of upside.

[greg775]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I totally understand what this year is about but I can't say I'm 100% in line with it. Other teams on the rebound like the Phils and Braves were a little more proactive in improving their teams. The Braves picking up Preston Tucker from the Astros  is paying early dividends. 

I really like what the Twins did this off season. They got starters and relievers most of whom I thought would be good fits for the Sox and got most of them  at bargain prices. They took advantage of the down market to nab Logan Morrison. They got Ordorizzi, Lance Lynn, Rodney , Duke and Reed. They signed Michael Pineda even though he will miss this year . They spent around $52M for all that and with the Reed and Pineda deals both being 2 years and Ordorizzi signed through next year also. Reed was easily available for the Sox because he only wanted to be on teams in the Midwest.

It is no secret I advocated signing Moustaskas and thought JD Martinez would also be beneficial. I advocated more moves with the hopes of being fairly competitive this year in order for key free agents to consider the Sox an up and coming team. It's much harder to convince them of that if the Sox approach 100 losses. The Sox could  have made some hard decisions on the Davidson and Engel types on the roster rather than give them another year to develop.

I know many of you think that money will determine where free agents sign but it is also about winning. It's hard to pass up big bucks and winning teams like the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox. Those teams are doing all they can to avoid luxury taxes and be viable players for the upcoming free agents. They are our competition for all those guys everyone seems to think the Sox have a shot at.

Apparently the Sox tried to trade for Yelich and made a late run at Logan Morrison and we all remember the idiotic idea of trading for Machado in the hopes of resigning him.

The Sox payroll is the lowest its been since 2004 and next year the commitments are very low so in theory the Sox will have plenty of money available or free agents. The Sox could have made moves this off season cheaply to either be more competitive and have a  small shot to make the playoffs or have better pieces to sell off.

I guess my main point is would it have been so bad to make earlier decisions on guys like Davidson, Engel, Delmonico and try to be more competitive ? Chances are those types will not develop into long term starters or even very tradable pieces any more so than guys they could have signed in the off season. The only thing the Sox did this off season was save more money and delay the inevitable decisions on players who most likely will not succeed. Most of those guys are flawed either defensively or offensively . I want the Sox to be a more attractive destination for free agents but I am losing hope that if the Sox put a lot of eggs into the free agent market and end up without a couple of big name players they are screwed and I will blame it on too much losing.

 

 

Guess what? This is an excellent take. How can any of the rebuilding lovers disagree? This is my take that you so beautifully worded. I beg Hahn lovers to re-read it please. Great take.

[greg775]

1 hour ago, Scoots said:

Then what are you expecting exactly? If there is no reason to listen to the leader of our team, why not just go follow a different one?

Cause he's a Sox fan. He might not be 100 percent in line with the "leader of our team." It doesn't make him any less of a Sox fan.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

It’s really a shame they didn’t just cut bait with Shields and sign someone with a semblance of upside.

I'm not concerned with Shields since he is a sunk cost gone after this year but they could've passed on Miguel Gonzales and the numerous relief guys they signed and put in the minors for the most part and attempted to sign some of the available relief pitchers and starting pitchers with better track records and guys like Moustakas and Logan Morrison for very cheap and for the short term benefit of making the Sox competitive and attractive to free agents without messing too much with the longer term potential. If you are still not competitive enough by the trade deadline you have better pieces to move.

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 hours ago, Scoots said:

In fact, when Kopech comes up and starts his growing pains, I expect people to say this rebuild is a bust. Remember he is far from a finished project.

I don't even think Jimenez will be up to the Majors before September as some might suggest. He might even regress a bit in the minors.

 

After seeing the recurring meme of "development at the MLB level," I've grown a bit annoyed at watching youngsters come up and scuffle. Does anyone else like seeing Fulmer crapping his pants every 5 days? How about having to watch Moncada oscillate between sharply hit balls one day, and then piles of strikeouts looking the next?

I'd much rather have Kopech PROVE that his command is MLB-ready, and that he can reliably get into the 6th/7th inning, than rush him up as an incomplete product. I'd much rather give Jimenez all the time he needs to be as close to 100% finished, than have him struggle whenever he's brought up as well. These kids are freakin' Romanov Dynasty Fabrege Eggs, and should be treated as such, not rushed up like a AAAA no hoper/Rule 5 Draftee-type. 

 

After all, getting back to winning >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the stupid "sugar high" of speeding every last prospect up, IMHO. 2018 is a lost year, and if it takes until September for these kids to figure it out, let them wait until September.

[kapkomet]

Since it's local to me and all, at least the Sox aren't the Texas Rangers.  They are dreadful and have zero payroll flexibility.  Texas will have a worse record then the Sox, IMO.  Hahn has taken the Cubs/Astros model so it will be 2020 and they'll win 90+.  This year?  60-100ish.

 

[WBWSF]

3 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I totally understand what this year is about but I can't say I'm 100% in line with it. Other teams on the rebound like the Phils and Braves were a little more proactive in improving their teams. The Braves picking up Preston Tucker from the Astros  is paying early dividends. 

I really like what the Twins did this off season. They got starters and relievers most of whom I thought would be good fits for the Sox and got most of them  at bargain prices. They took advantage of the down market to nab Logan Morrison. They got Ordorizzi, Lance Lynn, Rodney , Duke and Reed. They signed Michael Pineda even though he will miss this year . They spent around $52M for all that and with the Reed and Pineda deals both being 2 years and Ordorizzi signed through next year also. Reed was easily available for the Sox because he only wanted to be on teams in the Midwest.

It is no secret I advocated signing Moustaskas and thought JD Martinez would also be beneficial. I advocated more moves with the hopes of being fairly competitive this year in order for key free agents to consider the Sox an up and coming team. It's much harder to convince them of that if the Sox approach 100 losses. The Sox could  have made some hard decisions on the Davidson and Engel types on the roster rather than give them another year to develop.

I know many of you think that money will determine where free agents sign but it is also about winning. It's hard to pass up big bucks and winning teams like the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox. Those teams are doing all they can to avoid luxury taxes and be viable players for the upcoming free agents. They are our competition for all those guys everyone seems to think the Sox have a shot at.

Apparently the Sox tried to trade for Yelich and made a late run at Logan Morrison and we all remember the idiotic idea of trading for Machado in the hopes of resigning him.

The Sox payroll is the lowest its been since 2004 and next year the commitments are very low so in theory the Sox will have plenty of money available or free agents. The Sox could have made moves this off season cheaply to either be more competitive and have a  small shot to make the playoffs or have better pieces to sell off.

I guess my main point is would it have been so bad to make earlier decisions on guys like Davidson, Engel, Delmonico and try to be more competitive ? Chances are those types will not develop into long term starters or even very tradable pieces any more so than guys they could have signed in the off season. The only thing the Sox did this off season was save more money and delay the inevitable decisions on players who most likely will not succeed. Most of those guys are flawed either defensively or offensively . I want the Sox to be a more attractive destination for free agents but I am losing hope that if the Sox put a lot of eggs into the free agent market and end up without a couple of big name players they are screwed and I will blame it on too much losing.

 

 

 

[WBWSF]

I thought signing Moustakas on the cheap would have been the right thing to do. The thing that bothers me about not signing him is that the White Sox are paying more money on a bum like Joakim Soria ($8 million) than what Moustakas is making this year ($6 million). Losing 100 games this 2018 season will not attract any quality free agents this coming off season. David Kaplan has already reported that the White Sox have no intentions of signing any big free agents this coming off season. I happen to believe it. I've felt right from the start that this so called rebuild/tanking will be done as cheaply as possible.

[Two-Gun Pete]

27 minutes ago, Tony said:

But in the cases of Anderson and Moncada, I really don’t see what else their was left to do in AAA, and I’d rather see them continue their development in Major Leauge conditions, rather than AAA. 

There isn’t anything close to the jump from AAA to MLB. Struggles are going to be happen in most cases. 

With respect to Anderson, his promotion came in the dumb old days of 2016, when they thought that that crappy roster, with THAT dumb manager had a snowball's chance in hell of competing. To me, he should have been the last of the "rushed prospects" for awhile.

 

But, with respect to Moncada: When he was acquired, he had had "all of" 45 games in AA. Moncada fangraphs

While he was clearly more talented than most of his opponents, he also K'ed to a 30% clip in 2016. Now, fast-forward to 2017, and his overall good numbers were masked by a YAWNING gap between his home/away splits, and his LH/RH splits. Moncada Splits The Home/away splits matter, because Charlotte is an extremely hitter-friendly environment, while his handedness splits mattered because he's a switch hitter. Again, he K'ed to a 28.3% clip in AAA vs. the Dylan Coveys and Chris Becks and other AAAA mediocrities of the world.

 

Now, we have to hear about how his ability to make contact remains flawed, while we wasted some of his pre-FA years, while he tries to learn things in MLB that he could have learned in AAA. [Which he could have done without using up as much of his controllable time.] I'd much rather have waited a bit, to have him square away his RH swing, work on his bat control, improve his ability to make contact, and above all, cut down on the Ks. What was the rush? Did we need Moncada to win? Did we need Moncada in Chicago to sell tickets? 2017 and 2018 are/were lost years. Why rush him up, possibly scupper his development, and speed him off to FA?

From my view, Moncada's development was/is SO IMPORTANT to the rebuild that more patience was the proper prescription. I happen to believe the same about Jimenez and Kopech. YMMV.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Two-Gun Pete

[Replacement Level Poster]

David Kaplan...????

He’s the biggest cubs jock sniffer in Chicago media.

the sox could turn into the Mantle era Yankees and he would still find a way to bas he em.

[Replacement Level Poster]

18 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

I thought signing Moustakas on the cheap would have been the right thing to do. The thing that bothers me about not signing him is that the White Sox are paying more money on a bum like Joakim Soria ($8 million) than what Moustakas is making this year ($6 million). Losing 100 games this 2018 season will not attract any quality free agents this coming off season. David Kaplan has already reported that the White Sox have no intentions of signing any big free agents this coming off season. I happen to believe it. I've felt right from the start that this so called rebuild/tanking will be done as cheaply as possible.

 

Just now, Replacement Level Poster said:

David Kaplan...????

He’s the biggest cubs jock sniffer in Chicago media.

the sox could turn into the Mantle era Yankees and he would still find a way to bas he em.

 

[Ducksnort]

18 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

 

From my view, Moncada's development was/is SO IMPORTANT to the rebuild that more patience was the proper prescription. I happen to believe the same about Jimenez and Kopech. YMMV.

Yeah I agree. I'm as psyched to have Kopech and Jimenez up as the next guy, but Kopech needs to learn how to harness his offspeed pitches and how to locate his fastball. Yeah, hitters in AAA might be blown away, but the hitters at the MLB level know how to hit hard pitches. Everyone in the majors throws hard, and if you can't hit them, then you can't be successful at this level.

And with regards to Jimenez, his development this year has been slowed by 3 weeks. He's now just beginning his season and he isn't perfect either. In an ideal development world, he finishes the season in AAA and sniffs the majors in September with a call-up. Have him start in AAA next year and when he has proven that he is better than that league, call him up in 2019. Jimenez is good, but he's no Mike Trout.

[Ducksnort]

56 minutes ago, Tony said:

The problem of course with this is players aren’t, you know, robots. 

Fulmer was brought up too early, the front office basically admitted that. But in the cases of Anderson and Moncada, I really don’t see what else their was left to do in AAA, and I’d rather see them continue their development in Major Leauge conditions, rather than AAA. 

There isn’t anything close to the jump from AAA to MLB. Struggles are going to be happen in most cases. 

Right. I don't think anyone is 100% complete finished product when they are called up for the first time. There is a big difference between AAA and MLB. In my personal opinion, you call up players when they have proven they are better than the league they are playing in. Doesn't mean they don't have things they need to get better at, but it's just their development needs to be progressed at a higher level. See, Jose Altuve.

Yes, Fulmer was brought up way too early. Anderson probably could have been brought up a couple months later, but whatever. I think Moncada might have been better served to stay in AAA last year and possibly get called up this season. But it is what it is. He's here now, and he has shown flashes of at least being an all-star. 

Patience is key with all of these guys. And I think the front office has learned their lesson, and will not bring up these guys until they are truly ready to move on. And it seems so far, Rutherford, Basabe, and Adolfo are knocking on the door to make the jump. So, Cordell (when he gets healthy again) and, sh*t, even Adam Engel, Trayce Thompson, better start getting their sh*t together, because these guys are coming. And they are hungry.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Scoots

[chitownsportsfan]

50 minutes ago, kapkomet said:

Since it's local to me and all, at least the Sox aren't the Texas Rangers.  They are dreadful and have zero payroll flexibility.  Texas will have a worse record then the Sox, IMO.  Hahn has taken the Cubs/Astros model so it will be 2020 and they'll win 90+.  This year?  60-100ish.

 

After the game got well out of the hand, the Astros announcers were having a good natured laugh and reminiscing at how bleak things looked for them the year they won like 55 games and how the Sox are in that stage as well.  The Astros crew is worth listening to they were excellent all around last night.  They didn't make any jokes until around the 6th inning when whathisname beefy catcher for them got on base and he had a 50% OBP and the color guy goes "50% of the time he gets on base every time" and I honestly laughed pretty hard.  

Jason and Stone take notes: less is more at times.

[Ducksnort]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

Cause he's a Sox fan. He might not be 100 percent in line with the "leader of our team." It doesn't make him any less of a Sox fan.

I didn't say he should be 100 percent in line with what Hahn is saying. I said he should consider listening to him. Disregarding what Hahn is saying just because "it's his job and he isn't going to say anything else" is not really a wise way of going about it. Hahn could lie to us and tell us that the Sox are going to surprise people this year. Or even next year. (Kind of like they did from 2007-2016, except they probably genuinely thought they could win). And then what? He is telling the truth, and the results so far this April are backing up what he is saying. He is telling the fans what to expect. Hard times are coming. Buckle up. It's gonna be a bumpy ride.

And guess what? We are probably gonna see a 2 week stretch where these guys are amazing and we come within 4 games of being in 1st place in this God-awful division. And then it will all come right back down to earth. 

Really, the ONLY player I am concerned about is Avi. But not really...look at all of the outfield talent we have in the minor leagues. If Avi doesn't work out, which I hope he does, we have a plethora of options to choose from. Let alone free-agency.

Be patient. In due time, our time to reign will come. We just have to go through the bad and the ugly first to get to the good. Right now, we are getting through the ugly.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Scoots

[caulfield12]

Realistically, a lot of those (FA) players were not going to sign 3 year deals, or two plus an option.

We could have spent another $20-30 million to get the team into the 72-78 win region, but what would have been the point...attendance still would sink year after year, and then we’d be taking even bigger chances on finding the right mix of players in 2020 or 2021.

This is the better route.

Could we have gotten something for Avi?  Who knows?  But least we didn’t commit $50-75 million to him.

We have to let this season play out with Fulmer, Davidson, Sanchez, Delmonico, Giolito, Lopez, etc.  Even Leury can/should be useful, to someone.  Nate Jones is going to attract interest if he can stay healthy and cut down the walks.

I advocated signing Moustakas and/or Dyson.   

They’ve tried to paper over the Engel mistake with Thompson, and obviously they didn’t plan on Cordell getting hurt...but CF is arguably the area they could have best utilized a veteran placeholder on a one or two year deal, knowing their ultimate replacement was 1 1/2 to 2 years out in Luis Robert or one of the Winston-Salem guys like Booker/Basabe.

 

[greg775]

49 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

]You just said you wanted Moose and Dyson. We should have signed Moose, no question. What bothers me is not so much the rebuild but the fact our front office guys are considered successes/genuises right now when the rebuild is far from guaranteed to be a success. Also this is the worst team I've ever seen assembled on the South Side. I think it's ridiculous, almost criminal that they can charge these prices for a team that is not even a contender for a AAA title. This team couldn't win a Triple A crown. No way. that starting rotation and bullpen is not even a good minor league team bullpen and that frankly is embarrassing considering they are charging what they charge calling this big league baseball. 

I'm very sad Avi appears to be a bust as well. I thought he'd truly turned the corner.

 

Edited April 21, 2018 by greg775

[southsider2k5]

I wonder what will happen when Jimenez and Kopech come up and have struggles.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I wonder what will happen when Jimenez and Kopech come up and have struggles.

Demands that the White Sox should have brought back Melky and should bring back Garcia.