It is going to get worse before it gets better

[greg775]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Actually it is your fault that the Free Agency moves were not good, because it's the fault of free agency and you think that's a good idea. You think that it's possible to just "make good decisions in free agency and not bad ones". That's your major malfunction. It's not even about scouting, or coaching, it's 100% the luck of the draw. If you need to buy 3 or 4 positions in free agency, 2 or 3 of them are going to dramatically disappoint you. The only way to win in free agency is to have a good enough team that the free agent doesn't really matter if they bust, because some of them will. So, it's the fault of everyone who doesn't understand that about free agency, and anyone who thinks "we should have spent better in free agency" is a simple statement.

So, until you stop saying "We should have just made better FA decisions", I'm going to blame you for them because the org believed that they could, and that was wrong. They listened to that statement and that statement set them back by 4 years.

I don't mean to hide and change the subject, but another thing popped in Greg's head. This new way of building through tanking. Well the Royals tank was 20 years but that's besides the point. They reached 2 WS and won one of 'em which is fantastic and all that. They had a parade and they had all the fun times that go with being the best, etc.  Now, however? Wow. They got no stars to trade. All they got for their current (next) rebuild will be draft picks. So KC is looking at its next contender in about 10 years since they don't sign free agents. WOW. So this era of tank ... you better win it all and enjoy all that and that best be enough cause you're looking at 2-3 years of excellence and WS contention, then 10 years of misery followed by 2-3 years of contention. I do not like the tank era. I like my way.

[fathom]

Greg, the Cubs and Astros are going to be great for a decade

[Balta1701]

Just now, greg775 said:

I don't mean to hide and change the subject, but another thing popped in Greg's head. This new way of building through tanking. Well the Royals tank was 20 years but that's besides the point. They reached 2 WS and won one of 'em which is fantastic and all that. They had a parade and they had all the fun times that go with being the best, etc.  Now, however? Wow. They got no stars to trade. All they got for their current (next) rebuild will be draft picks. So KC is looking at its next contender in about 10 years since they don't sign free agents. WOW. So this era of tank ... you better win it all and enjoy all that and that best be enough cause you're looking at 2-3 years of excellence and WS contention, then 10 years of misery followed by 2-3 years of contention. I do not like the tank era. I like my way.

You're damn right and that's why I'm 100% planning to evaluate Rick Hahn based on whether or not I get to gawk at our 2020 trophy, and why I'm shouting down anyone until I get to see that.

[Bananarchy]

Why does Greg refer to Greg in the third person?

[Dam8610]

4 hours ago, Sox Fan In Husker Land said:

The Sox official rebuild started on 12/6/16 with the Chris Sale trade. 

The Astros official rebuild started on 7/29/10 with the Oswalt and Berkman trades. The Astros went 70-92 in 2014, the 4th worst record in MLB after having the worst record the previous 3 seasons. They then had their 1st winning season in 2015 (86-76 and made the playoffs.) since 2008.

It took the Astros rebuild 4 1/2 years to pay off. The Sox are 1 year and 5 months into their rebuild. Patience people. 

Was it uncertain for the Astros during that time. Yes. Mark Appel was a complete bust as a #1 pick and they failed to sign Aiken the following season. Having the worst record 3 years in a row, and then the 4th worst record is hard to stomach for any fan base. Then it paid off for Houston. The Astros hit it big in the draft with Springer, Correa, Bregman, Keuchel, and McCullers. They also hit it big with Altuve and Gurriel in the international market. T

 

he Astros only had 1 player that played on their 1st rebuilding season in 2011 that played during their playoff season in 2015: Jose Altuve. Everyone else from the 2011 team was gone by 2015.

The Sox already have some potential pieces in place for 4 years into the rebuild (2021) that played during the 1st season of the rebuild in Moncada, Anderson, Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, Yolmer, Davidson, Narvaez, Delmonico, Nate Jones (still under contract through 2021), Fulmer, and Bummer. 

 

The Astros then went on to have the following picks after they started their rebuild:

2011 - 11th (George Springer)

2012 - 1st  (Carlos Correa)

2013 - 1st (Mark Appel who was later traded for closer Ken Giles)

2014 - 1st (Brady Aiken didn't sign**lucky bastards**)

2015 - 2nd (Alex Bregman) due to Aiken not signing. 5th (Kyle Tucker). 

Since the rebuild started the Sox have the following draft picks:

2017 - 11th (Jake Burger)

2018 -  4th (????)

2019 - Most likely Top 5 pick

Add Top 5 picks in 2018 and 2019 to Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Carlos Rodon, Yolmer Sanchez, Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, Luis Robert, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, Alec Hansen, Dane Dunning, Dylan Cease, Blake Rutherford, Zack Collins, Jake Burger, Zack Burdi, Seby Zavala, Luis Alexander Basabe, Micker Adolfo and others and the Sox will continue to have a loaded system. 

 

Everyone on the Astros 2015 team who had over 320 PA was under 30. The major starters on the Astros 2015 season:

C - Jason Castro (Drafted in 1st round by Houston in 2008 before rebuild)

1B - Chris Carter (Acquired via trade in 2013)

2B - Jose Altuve (International Free Agent signing 3/07 by Astros)

SS - Carlos Correa (Drafted #1 overall by Houston in 2012)

3B - Luis Valbuena (Acquired via trade in 2015 for Dexter Fowler)

LF - Preston Tucker (Drafted in 7th round by Houston in 2012)

CF - Jake Marisnick (Acquired via trade in 2014 for Jarred Cosart)

RF - George Springer (Drafted in 1st round by Houston in 2011)

DH - Evan Gattis (Acquired via trade in 2015 for Mike Foltynewicz (Houston 1st round pick in 2010) & Rio Ruiz (Houston 4th round pick in 2012))

IF - Marwin Gonzalez (Acquired via trade in 2011 for Marco Duarte)

OF - Colby Rasmus (Acquired via Free Agency in 2015)

OF - Carlos Gomez (Acquired via trade 7/30/15 with Mike Fiers for Josh Hader, Adrian Houser (Houston 2nd round pick in 2011), Domingo Santana, and Brett Phillips (Houston 6th round pick in 2012)

SP - Dallas Keuchel (Drafted in 7th round in 2009 before rebuild)

SP - Collin McHugh (Selected off waivers in 2013)

SP - Lance McCullers (Drafted in Supplemental 1st round by Houston in 2012 (compensation for Clint Barmes))

SP - Scott Feldman (Acquired via Free Agency in 2013)

SP - Roberto Hernandez (Acquired via Free Agency in 2015)

SP - Scott Kazmir (Acquired via trade in 2015 for Jacob Nottingham (Houston 6th round pick in 2013) & Daniel Mengden (Houston 4th round pick in 2014))

SP - Mike Fiers (Acquired via trade 7/30/15)

CP - Luke Gregerson (Acquired via Free Agency in 2014)

RP - Will Harris (selected off waivers in 2014)

RP - Pat Neshek (Acquired via Free Agency in 2014)

RP - Tony Sipp (Acquired via Free Agency in 2014)

RP - Chad Qualls (Acquired via Free Agency in 2013)

 

The Astros 2017 World Series Team had

C - Brian McCann (Acquired via trade 11/17/16 for Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman)

1B - Yuli Gurriel (Acquired via International Free Agency 7/16/16)

2B - Altuve

SS - Correa

3B - Bregman

LF - Nori Aoki (Acquired via waivers 11/3/16, then later traded with Teoscar Hernandez (international free agent signing) for Francisco Liriano on 7/31/17)

CF - Springer

RF - Josh Reddick (Acquired via Free Agency 11/23/16)

DH - Carlos Beltran (Acquired via Free Agency 12/5/16)

UTIL - M. Gonzalez

UTIL - Gattis

OF - Marisnick

SP - Fiers

SP - Keuchel

SP - McCullers

SP - McHugh

SP - Charlie Morton (Acquired via Free Agency 11/16/16)

SP - Brad Peacock (Acquired via trade 2/4/13 with Chris Carter & Max Stassi for Fernando Rodriguez and Jed Lowrie)

SP - Joe Musgrove (Acquired via trade 7/20/12, then used later to trade for Gerrit Cole)

SP - Justin Verlander (Acquired via waiver trade 8/31/17 for Daz Cameron (Houston 37th pick in 2015 draft), Franklin Perez (international signing in 2015), and Jake Rogers (Houston 3rd round pick in 2016). 

CP - Ken Giles (Acquired via trade 12/12/15 for Mark Appel (Houston 1st round 2013, Harold Arauz (international free agent), Tom Eshelman (Houston 2nd round pick 2015), Brett Oberholtzer, Vince Velasquez (Houston 2nd round 2010)

RP -  Chris Devenski (Acquired via trade 8/3/12 as player to be named to complete trade for Brett Myers) Damn it. 

RP - Gregerson

Thanks for the big breakdown, that actually makes me feel a lot better about things right now. It also tells me that this draft and next draft are going to be very important. Still hoping to see an exciting second half team with the additions of Rodon, Kopech, and Eloy and (hopefully) improvement from Moncada and continued improvement from Anderson.

[soxfan49]

23 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I don't mean to hide and change the subject, but another thing popped in Greg's head. This new way of building through tanking. Well the Royals tank was 20 years but that's besides the point. They reached 2 WS and won one of 'em which is fantastic and all that. They had a parade and they had all the fun times that go with being the best, etc.  Now, however? Wow. They got no stars to trade. All they got for their current (next) rebuild will be draft picks. So KC is looking at its next contender in about 10 years since they don't sign free agents. WOW. So this era of tank ... you better win it all and enjoy all that and that best be enough cause you're looking at 2-3 years of excellence and WS contention, then 10 years of misery followed by 2-3 years of contention. I do not like the tank era. I like my way.

Let’s just say you’re correct (you’re not) that all teams who tank do it, win for 3-4 years and then suck ass again: wouldn’t that be a good problem to have? They were 90 feet away from back to back championships. The argument could also be made that the Royals, being a small market team and all, couldn’t afford to keep all of their guys around. The Sox, meanwhile, *should* be able to keep the main guys if it all works out. Unless you’re LAD, NYY, BOS, or the Cubs, some of those stars will have to leave.

Like someone else mentioned, the Cubs and Houston are going to be in the playoffs for the next 10 years. The Braves’ rebuild are looking good & Cincy’s farm is getting there too. Not sure why you picked one organization who successfully tanked just to help your point.

I think you’re getting two options mixed up. Typically loading up on FA’s is the way to only compete for a year or three, although that’s only if you get lucky. Rebuilding (“tanking”) is the way to sustain success for years if done properly.

[greg775]

8 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Let’s just say you’re correct (you’re not) that all teams who tank do it, win for 3-4 years and then suck ass again: wouldn’t that be a good problem to have? They were 90 feet away from back to back championships. The argument could also be made that the Royals, being a small market team and all, couldn’t afford to keep all of their guys around. The Sox, meanwhile, *should* be able to keep the main guys if it all works out. Unless you’re LAD, NYY, BOS, or the Cubs, some of those stars will have to leave.

Like someone else mentioned, the Cubs and Houston are going to be in the playoffs for the next 10 years. The Braves’ rebuild are looking good & Cincy’s farm is getting there too. Not sure why you picked one organization who successfully tanked just to help your point.

I think you’re getting two options mixed up. Typically loading up on FA’s is the way to only compete for a year or three, although that’s only if you get lucky. Rebuilding (“tanking”) is the way to sustain success for years if done properly.

Should be interesting to see if the Moncadas and Andersons who got called up early in the tank/rebuild process progress or do what Moncada did tonight? Lose interest. This is complicated stuff. I guess when we have an outfield of Eloy, Rutherford and Robert and Collins at catcher and Burger at 3B with a real rotation of young studs, will be do or die time.

[Bananarchy]

16 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Should be interesting to see if the Moncadas and Andersons who got called up early in the tank/rebuild process progress or do what Moncada did tonight? Lose interest. This is complicated stuff. I guess when we have an outfield of Eloy, Rutherford and Robert and Collins at catcher and Burger at 3B with a real rotation of young studs, will be do or die time.

Meh.  They'll be young and pretty fun to watch. May have some growing pains.

[TheBlackSox8]

36 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

Meh.  They'll be young and pretty fun to watch. May have some growing pains.

We hope for The Kids Can Play 2.  2000 with 2005 result.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, soxfan49 said:

Let’s just say you’re correct (you’re not) that all teams who tank do it, win for 3-4 years and then suck ass again: wouldn’t that be a good problem to have? They were 90 feet away from back to back championships. The argument could also be made that the Royals, being a small market team and all, couldn’t afford to keep all of their guys around. The Sox, meanwhile, *should* be able to keep the main guys if it all works out. Unless you’re LAD, NYY, BOS, or the Cubs, some of those stars will have to leave.

Like someone else mentioned, the Cubs and Houston are going to be in the playoffs for the next 10 years. The Braves’ rebuild are looking good & Cincy’s farm is getting there too. Not sure why you picked one organization who successfully tanked just to help your point.

I think you’re getting two options mixed up. Typically loading up on FA’s is the way to only compete for a year or three, although that’s only if you get lucky. Rebuilding (“tanking”) is the way to sustain success for years if done properly.

The Royals were set up well to be successful in 2016 and 2017.  Moore made some pretty terrible calls on free agents.  Yordano Ventura died.  Alex Gordon fell apart.  They foolishly traded Wade Davis for Soler, which looked at least logical at the time.  2016, they had a rash of injuries to key guys like Moustakas, Cain and Perez.  Their relievers became unaffordable to keep or got injured (Holland/Davis) or ineffective (Herrera).   They had breakthroughs from guys like Whit Merrifield, but Cuthbert, Orlando, Escobar...regressed.   Zobrist and Cueto were too expensive, etc.    And they traded Wil Myers and a ton of promising pitching as well...guys like Odorizzi and Manaea, who just no hit the Red Sox last night.

https://www.royalsreview.com/2018/4/5/17202302/old-friend-alert-where-can-you-find-former-royals

 

Alexander, Scott	Dodgers
Buchter, Ryan	Athletics
Chavez, Jesse	Rangers
Cueto, Johnny	Giants
Davis, Wade	Rockies
de la Rosa, Jorge	Diamondbacks
Finnegan, Brandon	Reds (DL)
Greinke, Zack	Diamondbacks
Hendriks, Liam	Athletics
Jeffress, Jeremy	Brewers
Madson, Ryan	Nationals
Manaea, Sean	Athletics
Minor, Mike	Rangers
Montgomery, Mike	Cubs
Moylan, Peter	Braves
Odorizzi, Jake	Twins
Reed, Cody	Reds
Santana, Ervin	Twins (DL)
Shields, James	White Sox
Smith, Will	Giants (DL)
Soria, Joakim	White Sox
Stumpf, Daniel	Tigers
Triggs, Andrew	Athletics
Vargas, Jason	Mets (DL)
Wood, Blake	Angels

 

[caulfield12]

And, like the White Sox...they had Jose Martinez, but didn’t develop him like the Cardinals somehow managed as he hit his late 20’s.  Even the might Braves with their development staff whiffed here.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=141436

We could use a hitter with a 1.010 ops about right now.

 

[hi8is]

5 hours ago, greg775 said:

I don't mean to hide and change the subject, but another thing popped in Greg's head. This new way of building through tanking. Well the Royals tank was 20 years but that's besides the point. They reached 2 WS and won one of 'em which is fantastic and all that. They had a parade and they had all the fun times that go with being the best, etc.  Now, however? Wow. They got no stars to trade. All they got for their current (next) rebuild will be draft picks. So KC is looking at its next contender in about 10 years since they don't sign free agents. WOW. So this era of tank ... you better win it all and enjoy all that and that best be enough cause you're looking at 2-3 years of excellence and WS contention, then 10 years of misery followed by 2-3 years of contention. I do not like the tank era. I like my way.

When were we last in the playoffs again?

[hi8is]

Priceless:

5 hours ago, AustinIllini said:

Why does Greg refer to Greg in the third person?

 

[GreenSox]

It took the Royals over a decade to build a contender from drafting and development.  And their contention window was short.  They just aren't very good at drafting and development.  Trades?  In the last 3-4 years, the Astros have traded away far more good young players than the Royals have.  And the Astros are only getting better.
This White Sox Front Office hasn't demonstrated that they understand the draft.  Now it's "Stuff" for pitchers, and "Approach" for hitters. I guess it's better than "tools" for hitters, but still not much room for nuance.  Maybe there has been an uptick from the draft, but, if so, it's modest.
Even if they can build a contender ( a big IF) with these current prospects they acquired by trading away top veteran talent, the window will be short if they keep drafting the way they have been.

[soxfan49]

16 hours ago, greg775 said:

Should be interesting to see if the Moncadas and Andersons who got called up early in the tank/rebuild process progress or do what Moncada did tonight? Lose interest. This is complicated stuff. I guess when we have an outfield of Eloy, Rutherford and Robert and Collins at catcher and Burger at 3B with a real rotation of young studs, will be do or die time.

You can probably forget about Collins. Obviously it’s early but he has been extremely underwhelming

[FloydBannister1983]

20 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

You're damn right and that's why I'm 100% planning to evaluate Rick Hahn based on whether or not I get to gawk at our 2020 trophy, and why I'm shouting down anyone until I get to see that.

I sure hope Jimenez and Garcia and Moncada are better than Judge and Stanton and Machado (or whoever the Yankees sign) by 2020.

 

[Dick Allen]

Too bad the Sox didn’t play like this last September. They would be picking first.

[Lip Man 1]

There's a difference in the caliber of free agents signed as well. Guys like the Austin Jackson's, Adam Dunn's, Adam LaRoche's of the world can help supply depth and help stabilize some areas but if you want to win championships, you have to get the guys at the top of their game who can dramatically impact the fate of a team and get them over the top. Guys like Reggie Jackson, or a Bryce Harper coming up next year.

The last time I can think of that the Sox were willing and able to land an acknowledged top star was Albert Belle.  That's a long time ago.

It's an open question even with this boatload of young talent being acquired if the Sox will be able to attract the difference makers since obviously all of the kids aren't going to make it and there will still be holes that must be filled.

[steveno89]

15 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

There's a difference in the caliber of free agents signed as well. Guys like the Austin Jackson's, Adam Dunn's, Adam LaRoche's of the world can help supply depth and help stabilize some areas but if you want to win championships, you have to get the guys at the top of their game who can dramatically impact the fate of a team and get them over the top. Guys like Reggie Jackson, or a Bryce Harper coming up next year.

The last time I can think of that the Sox were willing and able to land an acknowledged top star was Albert Belle.  That's a long time ago.

It's an open question even with this boatload of young talent being acquired if the Sox will be able to attract the difference makers since obviously all of the kids aren't going to make it and there will still be holes that must be filled.

It shouldn't come as much of a surprise that this team is struggling big time right now. Hahn said this season could easily be the most painful of the rebuild, and we basically did nothing to improve the mlb roster in the offseason (by design). We should be headed to another top 5 overall draft pick, and I don't necessarily view that as a bad thing. 

 

Our rotation is a disaster right now, but we need to stay the course until younger arms prove themselves ready.