Dick Allen Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Eminor3rd said: A deal can still end up an overall net positive if the player opts out (as in "this team has been better off signing this player than not having signed the player"), yes, but the same deal would be better if the opt out wasn't there. Even in the example of Belle: yes, it worked out better for the Sox in retrospect, because Belle declined suddenly and unexpectedly, but Reinsdorf and many others were extremely upset at the time that it happened, because Belle was worth more than the remainder of his contract -- which is why it made sense for him to opt out and find a better deal. If the opt-out wasn't there, the Sox could have also avoided a declining Belle by trading him at that time, and the return would have been a net positive that reflected the surplus value of the deal. This isn't to say that an opt-out should never be accepted in a deal, it's just that it is a player advantage and should come with a cost during negotiations. All of that "paying for the surplus value in early years" still applies to a deal with an opt out. The team is still on the hook for that money, should the player age as expected or worse than expected. All of the "upside" is lost, because if the player ages better than expected, and thus the team is in line to get more of that surplus value than what they paid for, the deal gets torn up. Essentially all of the risk normally associated with a long-term, big money deal is still on the team, but without the potential for reward. It's the fact that the decision is in the hands of the player, not the team, that makes the difference. If, at the time of the opt out, the balance of money/value for the remainder of the deal is off in either direction, the team is guaranteed to get the worse end of it. My point being, if you want Machado or Harper, you are going to have to live with an opt out. Theirs may be a different case since they are a little younger than the average free agent, but no matter what, some team is going to make each one of them a crazy offer, opt out and all. The White Sox have done a few things the last couple of years they have never done before. But signing perhaps the top free agent on the market and including an opt out....they were ahead of their time. But this is a bit different. I don't think anyone should really count on Machado or Harper being a White Sox, and the red flags are starting to blossom for Donaldson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: My point being, if you want Machado or Harper, you are going to have to live with an opt out. Theirs may be a different case since they are a little younger than the average free agent, but no matter what, some team is going to make each one of them a crazy offer, opt out and all. The White Sox have done a few things the last couple of years they have never done before. But signing perhaps the top free agent on the market and including an opt out....they were ahead of their time. But this is a bit different. I don't think anyone should really count on Machado or Harper being a White Sox, and the red flags are starting to blossom for Donaldson. I agree with you on that -- the franchise player opt out has become something of a proven precedent. I was just responding to the "it doesn't hurt a team that much if you think about it" part, not because I think it's a dealbreaker or anything, but because it is a common misconception that fans seem to have -- to consider the range of outcomes from an ad hoc perspective, and thus misunderstand the economics. Just trying to clarify the cost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: My point being, if you want Machado or Harper, you are going to have to live with an opt out. Theirs may be a different case since they are a little younger than the average free agent, but no matter what, some team is going to make each one of them a crazy offer, opt out and all. The White Sox have done a few things the last couple of years they have never done before. But signing perhaps the top free agent on the market and including an opt out....they were ahead of their time. But this is a bit different. I don't think anyone should really count on Machado or Harper being a White Sox, and the red flags are starting to blossom for Donaldson. I don't know whether Machado, Harper, Kimbrel, Miller, or whatever else will come our way will be the guy(s), but if the White Sox do not make at least 1 big splash this offseason in the free agent market I will be seriously disappointed. There's no reason to do this sort of rebuild and cut your payroll this drastically if you aren't willing to spend what it takes to finish the job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Just now, Balta1701 said: I don't know whether Machado, Harper, Kimbrel, Miller, or whatever else will come our way will be the guy(s), but if the White Sox do not make at least 1 big splash this offseason in the free agent market I will be seriously disappointed. There's no reason to do this sort of rebuild and cut your payroll this drastically if you aren't willing to spend what it takes to finish the job. Right - a la the Pirates. Even though greg can't see it, the whole point in us being obsessed with saving Jerry's money is so that Jerry's money can be spent later, to greater and more precise effect. That doesn't mean we should spend solely for the sake of spending, but it DOES mean we should be considering our projected window of contention when we decide to pursue or not to pursue a particular free agent. And to your point, it DOES mean that it needs to BE spent. For me (and many of us), that makes Machado/Harper particularly interesting -- because their age means that buying talent a year or two ahead of schedule might actually be worth it, given that we can't expect the same level or talent to be available when the time is just right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksycat Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: I don't know whether Machado, Harper, Kimbrel, Miller, or whatever else will come our way will be the guy(s), but if the White Sox do not make at least 1 big splash this offseason in the free agent market I will be seriously disappointed. There's no reason to do this sort of rebuild and cut your payroll this drastically if you aren't willing to spend what it takes to finish the job. Still has to be the right player and a crapshoot. What if they broke the piggy bank for Alex Gordon a couple years ago? Spending money just for the sake of spending money isn't a great strategy either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 2 hours ago, greg775 said: I thought the White Sox were making money, tons of money. Another aspect of the modern era of baseball is fans hate seeing their teams spend money. This is a strange new world. Fans love losing. Fans don't want the owners to spend any cash. This may be the worst post in SoxTalk history. Does the new site have a down-vote button? 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: I don't know whether Machado, Harper, Kimbrel, Miller, or whatever else will come our way will be the guy(s), but if the White Sox do not make at least 1 big splash this offseason in the free agent market I will be seriously disappointed. There's no reason to do this sort of rebuild and cut your payroll this drastically if you aren't willing to spend what it takes to finish the job. I agree but it takes two to make a deal. A free agent has to want to come to the Sox. If this team were to say lose 100 games this year, even though it's clearly understood that it is rebuilding it may be hard to convince a top free agent, regardless of the money being offered to come to the Sox. Guys want to win now for the most part and don't have a lot of patience given how relatively short the career is. That's why I feel that the Sox must show some type of progress this season, if nothing else to plant a positive image in the minds of the guys they may be looking at this off season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksycat Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said: I agree but it takes two to make a deal. A free agent has to want to come to the Sox. If this team were to say lose 100 games this year, even though it's clearly understood that it is rebuilding it may be hard to convince a top free agent, regardless of the money being offered to come to the Sox. Guys want to win now for the most part and don't have a lot of patience given how relatively short the career is. That's why I feel that the Sox must show some type of progress this season, if nothing else to plant a positive image in the minds of the guys they may be looking at this off season. I think its 99% money & 1% "wanting to win now". It's not like the NBA, teams can change overnight. If we're not in the ballpark of most money & opt outs we have no chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said: I agree but it takes two to make a deal. A free agent has to want to come to the Sox. If this team were to say lose 100 games this year, even though it's clearly understood that it is rebuilding it may be hard to convince a top free agent, regardless of the money being offered to come to the Sox. Guys want to win now for the most part and don't have a lot of patience given how relatively short the career is. That's why I feel that the Sox must show some type of progress this season, if nothing else to plant a positive image in the minds of the guys they may be looking at this off season. The top free agent this offseason signed with a team that lost 91 games last year and will likely lose more this year. $$$$ talks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, LittleHurt05 said: The top free agent this offseason signed with a team that lost 91 games last year and will likely lose more this year. $$$$ talks. ARod signed his mega deal with a team that lost 91 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 4 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said: I agree but it takes two to make a deal. A free agent has to want to come to the Sox. If this team were to say lose 100 games this year, even though it's clearly understood that it is rebuilding it may be hard to convince a top free agent, regardless of the money being offered to come to the Sox. Guys want to win now for the most part and don't have a lot of patience given how relatively short the career is. That's why I feel that the Sox must show some type of progress this season, if nothing else to plant a positive image in the minds of the guys they may be looking at this off season. Lester to the Cubs, although there was already the Epstein connection. Still, everyone in baseball can see the potential in the organization and project it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 The other thing to consider is that at some point the Sox are going to have to resign their guys. How much will a 28 year old Yoan Moncada cost of he actually is putting up 10 WAR seasons? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcq Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 4 hours ago, Eminor3rd said: Right - a la the Pirates. Even though greg can't see it, the whole point in us being obsessed with saving Jerry's money is so that Jerry's money can be spent later, to greater and more precise effect. That doesn't mean we should spend solely for the sake of spending, but it DOES mean we should be considering our projected window of contention when we decide to pursue or not to pursue a particular free agent. And to your point, it DOES mean that it needs to BE spent. For me (and many of us), that makes Machado/Harper particularly interesting -- because their age means that buying talent a year or two ahead of schedule might actually be worth it, given that we can't expect the same level or talent to be available when the time is just right. All I suggest is what happens when you have two guys making $30M per year. Then what if they are not earning it. Do the other guys resent this situation. I am not very concerned about the owner's money. With all the sellouts he must be swimming in it. Money is not my worry as a fan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksycat Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Tony said: If Moncada is trending that way, hopefully the Sox aren't going to the negotiating table with Moncada when he is 28, but instead when he is 24-25. (Also, if Moncada is putting up a 10 WAR season, the Sox should be drawing 3 million plus and trying to figure out where to keep all their World Series trophies.) Yoan already got paid, only way I'd see him signing early is if he didn't turn out to be a stud 2-3 years from now. Otherwise if he's a star there's no chance he doesn't go to FA and cash in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, Tony said: If Moncada is trending that way, hopefully the Sox aren't going to the negotiating table with Moncada when he is 28, but instead when he is 24-25. (Also, if Moncada is putting up a 10 WAR season, the Sox should be drawing 3 million plus and trying to figure out where to keep all their World Series trophies.) He's on pace for 8 WAR this year with a 37% K rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 34 minutes ago, Tony said: If Moncada is trending that way, hopefully the Sox aren't going to the negotiating table with Moncada when he is 28, but instead when he is 24-25. (Also, if Moncada is putting up a 10 WAR season, the Sox should be drawing 3 million plus and trying to figure out where to keep all their World Series trophies.) I would bet money that Yoan plays out his pre-FA years and hits the market ASAP. He doesn't lack any confidence and doesn't seem like the kind to worry about security first. Getting 30 million up front won't hurt either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Dam8610 said: The other thing to consider is that at some point the Sox are going to have to resign their guys. How much will a 28 year old Yoan Moncada cost of he actually is putting up 10 WAR seasons? Yoan is going to follow the standard arb progression of breaking Seager's record for arb dollars in 2021 at just over $11 million, then will probably be at $20 million by 2023 and then will be a free agent. So, we darn well better win our title(s) first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Yoan is going to follow the standard arb progression of breaking Seager's record for arb dollars in 2021 at just over $11 million, then will probably be at $20 million by 2023 and then will be a free agent. So, we darn well better win our title(s) first. Realistically, this title window will be closed by 2023. 2019-2022 are the years to compete before players get too old, expensive, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 That completely depends on the second wave of talent now at W-S, Kopech, Jimenez, Cease, Hansen, Robert, Collins, Burger...these next two years of years of high draft picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 3 hours ago, LittleHurt05 said: Realistically, this title window will be closed by 2023. 2019-2022 are the years to compete before players get too old, expensive, etc. I don't think the Sox front office is feeling their "window" will be all of four years. I'd certainly hope not...not the way Hahn was talking about sustained contending. If the Sox truly want to try to win for a sustained time period they are going to have to pay the price financially to the players and much will also depend on who the owner is in that time period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 6:42 PM, Balta1701 said: I see no reason why we should be trading for a CF prospect when Robert is in our system. If you want someone on a short term deal for 2019 and 2020 because you're convinced Robert won't be here until 2021 and, like me, you want a trophy before that, I'm ok with that move, but I'm not paying a premium for a long-term controlled CF when I have already paid a premium for a long term controlled CF. It may not be CF or only CF. I've suggested before (amidst guffaws) that pitching will be an issue as well. But if they end up with a surplus/cushion in one area, they can make some moves to shore up another area. That type of thing is what the Sox GM does well (when he does it, which isn't that often). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 (edited) 15 hours ago, pcq said: All I suggest is what happens when you have two guys making $30M per year. Then what if they are not earning it. Do the other guys resent this situation. I am not very concerned about the owner's money. With all the sellouts he must be swimming in it. Money is not my worry as a fan. You explained everyone's concern about money with the first part of your post -- we don't care how rich Jerry Reinsdorf is, but at the end of the day (whether we like it or not), the payroll is only going to go so high. If there's only, say $150mm to spend, then we like to see it spent efficiently, so we can have the most good players. Edited May 5, 2018 by Eminor3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 AJ Pollock is continuing to look like the most attractive option after Harper, Machado, Donaldson and Arenado (2019-20 class). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 18 hours ago, Balta1701 said: Yoan is going to follow the standard arb progression of breaking Seager's record for arb dollars in 2021 at just over $11 million, then will probably be at $20 million by 2023 and then will be a free agent. So, we darn well better win our title(s) first. If they're not keeping Moncada for his career, what was the point of any of this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, Dam8610 said: If they're not keeping Moncada for his career, what was the point of any of this? Winning a World Series before 2023, and maybe convincing him to stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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