Trust the process

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Let's just hope the Indians finally implode due to pitching wear and tear and/or payroll concerns for a small market team.

It has already happened twice in the last 20 years that they had to essentially do total rebuilds...actually, three times.  They have Lindor, but Kipnis looks like garbage this year, they lost Santana and Encarnacion is trending downwards bigtime.  The problem is that Ramirez and Brantley (when healthy) are pretty darned good players, and they have that dominant pen (for now).  Plus they have some really interesting prospects (Mejia, catcher) in their farm system as well.

This might be the last/best chance for them to win it all, though.

Encarnacion sucked at the start of last year too but he ended up with a pretty good year but yeah one of these years he will actually be bad .

[caulfield12]

Here's why Don Cooper deserves more credit than he has gotten (recent years)

Let's go back to that 1999-2001 group.

 

Buehrle and Garland were the only ones to really make it.  Kip Wells and Josh Fogg succeeded with the Pirates, but not here.

Then you have Guerrier, Rauch (huge failure for the #1 overall prospect) and Biddle that had decent relieving careers.

 

But a LONG LONG list of failures.

Ginter, Barcelo, Danny Wright (injuries/ineffectiveness), Jason Stumm, David West, Corwin Malone, Kris Honel, Lance Broadway, Aaron Poreda, etc.  Not all from that #1 ranked BA Class of 2000 (Borchard/Crede/Rowand as well).  There was another pitcher we acquired from the Rangers in 1998 or 1999 that was on most Top 10 lists as well, his name escapes me.

 

That brings us to this present generation.

Essentially, you only have McCarthy and Daniel Hudson...then Floyd, Danks, Sale and Q.

 

Over all that entire time, nearly 20 years, Buehrle and Sale were the only ones that were Sox drafted/developed and succeeded with the Sox.

So it's not far-fetched to suggest we'll need to acquire at least two pitchers (Contreras for Loaiza, Garcia for Reed/Olivo/Morse) and sign a veteran back-end guy (El Duque).

 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Here's why Don Cooper deserves more credit than he has gotten (recent years)

Let's go back to that 1999-2001 group.

 

Buehrle and Garland were the only ones to really make it.  Kip Wells and Josh Fogg succeeded with the Pirates, but not here.

Then you have Guerrier, Rauch (huge failure for the #1 overall prospect) and Biddle that had decent relieving careers.

 

But a LONG LONG list of failures.

Ginter, Barcelo, Danny Wright (injuries/ineffectiveness), Jason Stumm, David West, Corwin Malone, Kris Honel, Lance Broadway, Aaron Poreda, etc.  Not all from that #1 ranked BA Class of 2000 (Borchard/Crede/Rowand as well).  There was another pitcher we acquired from the Rangers in 1998 or 1999 that was on most Top 10 lists as well, his name escapes me.

 

That brings us to this present generation.

Essentially, you only have McCarthy and Daniel Hudson...then Floyd, Danks, Sale and Q.

 

Over all that entire time, nearly 20 years, Buehrle and Sale were the only ones that were Sox drafted/developed and succeeded with the Sox.

So it's not far-fetched to suggest we'll need to acquire at least two pitchers (Contreras for Loaiza, Garcia for Reed/Olivo/Morse) and sign a veteran back-end guy (El Duque).

 

This post makes my brain hurt.  Why for the love of god must you name drop to this level.  You clearly know a ton about baseball, just get to the point and create more coherent posts.

[caulfield12]

Very simple.

Our 2000 #1 BA prospect class produced a LOT less than was originally projected...especially on the pitching side.

That's the worst-case scenario.

For those penciling in Lopez, Giolito, Kopech, Hansen and Cease to be front-line starters, there's a very high probability only 1 or 2 make it...and maybe one ends up useful in the bullpen.

All projections of filling our starting rotation internally should be taken with a grain of salt, unless we can actually control the health of Rodon/Hansen/Giolito/Cease (two TJ surgeries in there already, plus Rodon's past two years) and ALSO plug in yet another high first round draft pick from this year into the equation.   Even then, not a sure thing.

That's why we should be operating under the assumption at least two members of the next White Sox playoff rotation will come from outside the organization, if not 3.

If everything goes like it did for the Cubs or Astros, we get away with just having to add one FA...and then perhaps another big mid-season trade in one of the following years to "put the team over the top."

 

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Very simple.

Our 2000 #1 BA prospect class produced a LOT less than was originally projected...especially on the pitching side.

That's the worst-case scenario.

For those penciling in Lopez, Giolito, Kopech, Hansen and Cease to be front-line starters, there's a very high probability only 1 or 2 make it...and maybe one ends up useful in the bullpen.

All projections of filling our starting rotation internally should be taken with a grain of salt, unless we can actually control the health of Rodon/Hansen/Giolito/Cease (two TJ surgeries in there already, plus Rodon's past two years) and ALSO plug in yet another high first round draft pick from this year into the equation.   Even then, not a sure thing.

That's why we should be operating under the assumption at least two members of the next White Sox playoff rotation will come from outside the organization, if not 3.

If everything goes like it did for the Cubs or Astros, we get away with just having to add one FA...and then perhaps another big mid-season trade in one of the following years to "put the team over the top."

 

If more than one starter comes from outside our organization it’s a massive fail.  We’ve been through this but our rotation by mid season should be Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Giolito, & Fulmer.  That’s three guys who were considered top 20 prospects at some point in time, one guy who was a top 40, and another who was a top 100.  Not all these guys will pan out or remain healthy, but that’s where the next wave comes in.  Hansen & Dunning, another pair of top 100 prospects, will be knocking at the door next season.  And by 2020 another insanely talented prospect in Cease should pushing for a shot.

Even with normal bust rates we’ll have a ton of options.  And we’ll want to give those promising young arms a chance to actually develop in the majors.  CaliSox is right that in terms of timing we may need to add a veteran to the mix to provide some certainty, but that will depend on how the first wave develops.  If three of that Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, & Giolito group can hold down the top three spots in our rotation by 2020, we may not need to anything.  Too early to say, but to suggest we’ll need to add two or three rotation arms from the outside is suggesting more than 50% of our elite arms bust and that none of our secondary arms (Fulmer, Adams, Stephens, Clarkin, etc) end up making it.  And quite frankly, that’s an “all has gone wrong” assumption.

[greg775]

13 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

13 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Very simple.

Our 2000 #1 BA prospect class produced a LOT less than was originally projected...especially on the pitching side.

For those penciling in Lopez, Giolito, Kopech, Hansen and Cease to be front-line starters, there's a very high probability only 1 or 2 make it...and maybe one ends up useful in the bullpen.

 

This is why I hate rebuilds. If so many guys ultimately fail, guess what, we'll be finding out they failed in big league games. And we'll be losing those big league games as we find out. If we need 2-3 starters in our rebuilt WS contending team(s) to come from other organizations, then what the hell are we rebuilding this way for? Considering the length of time this rebuild is to take, we're only going to have 2-3 nice pieces on the mound? Very very sad. Fire everybody.

Yes I've advocated adding veteran relievers and a starter for the rebuilt Sox, but this kind of talk is ridiculous. We're going to need to hit free agency big time?? That's what us non rebuilding types wanted to do in the first place.

 

Edited April 27, 2018 by greg775

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

Yes I've advocated adding veteran relievers and a starter for the rebuilt Sox, but this kind of talk is ridiculous. We're going to need to hit free agency big time?? That's what us non rebuilding types wanted to do in the first place.

They did! They went big in 2015 and signed the top closer on the market, a starting DH, a starting OF, and then traded for a mid rotation starting pitcher. Boosted payroll by over $30 million from the previous season. I was not particularly thrilled with those results. It continues to be worth asking why.

[wrathofhahn]

On 4/27/2018 at 3:05 PM, Balta1701 said:

They did! They went big in 2015 and signed the top closer on the market, a starting DH, a starting OF, and then traded for a mid rotation starting pitcher. Boosted payroll by over $30 million from the previous season. I was not particularly thrilled with those results. It continues to be worth asking why.

 

Whether you for the rebuild or not isn't really material at this point. It's happened. The question is how far we continue the process my contention is all along that we continue that a proper rebuild takes at least three years. The Cubs managed in three with Epstein. The Astros took four.

That is sort of the bench mark. Right now we are in year two of that process. The question I'd pose is will we be competitive next year if we sign Machado? I mean he's tearing the cover off the ball for the Orioles and whats their record. The MLB isn't the NBA there is no guy whose going to come in and sort of single handily turn around the club.

Other people say well signing Machado doesn't mean we have to be competitive immediately. Come on. Signing Machado starts the clock and forces us to be looking at the nearterm rather then the longterm. I'm not ready to commit to that at this point. Like I said we are only in year two of the process and honestly we don't know the timetable we are hoping for 2020 as the best case scenario (also mentioned by Hahn) but it maybe longer if the first wave disappoints. We just don't know.

I think at this point we need to see it through and if we aren't then we better be damn sure we have enough moving forward to build a competitive roster because there are no doovers here. The clock and service time of these guys gives us a window if we screw it up then they are guys we will be talking about in 2022-2023 about moving and starting yet another rebuild. I'd rather it be done right the first time.

[Balta1701]

8 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

 

Whether you for the rebuild or not isn't really material at this point. It's happened. The question is how far we continue the process my contention is all along that we continue that a proper rebuild takes at least three years. The Cubs managed in three with Epstein. The Astros took four.

That is sort of the bench mark. Right now we are in year two of that process. The question I'd pose is will we be competitive next year if we sign Machado? I mean he's tearing the cover off the ball for the Orioles and whats their record. The MLB isn't the NBA there is no guy whose going to come in and sort of single handily turn around the club.

Other people say well signing Machado doesn't mean we have to be competitive immediately. Come on. Signing Machado starts the clock and forces us to be looking at the nearterm rather then the longterm. I'm not ready to commit to that at this point. Like I said we are only in year two of the process and honestly we don't know the timetable we are hoping for 2020 as the best case scenario (also mentioned by Hahn) but it maybe longer if the first wave disappoints. We just don't know.

I think at this point we need to see it through and if we aren't then we better be damn sure we have enough moving forward to build a competitive roster because there are no doovers here. The clock and service time of these guys gives us a window if we screw it up then they are guys we will be talking about in 2022-2023 about moving and starting yet another rebuild. I'd rather it be done right the first time.

You say to look at how long the Cubs and Astros took, when projecting for 2019 I also say to look what happened in the years before those teams won their titles. In 2015, the Astros, with a rookie George Springer, were a wild card team. They missed the playoffs the next year, but then won 100+ in 2017 and their world series. In 2015, the Cubs had many of their guys up - Bryant was in AAA for the first 2 weeks for service time reasons, Schwarber didn't appear until the end of the year, but the pieces were mostly there. That Cubs team won 96 games, the wild card, and was "Daniel Murphy collected all 6 infinity stones" away from the World Series. 

Next year, the White Sox should have the bulk of round 1 up. The 3 pitchers we had who needed a year to struggle are getting their year to struggle, and we're starting to see some good signs from some of them - we saw this with Danks and Floyd in our last actual competitive team, they struggled their way through 2007 and then were key contributors to a wild card in 2008. Moncada is getting his year to struggle. Come next year, those players should be ready to take steps forward...and on top of that, Kopech and Jiminez are arriving. By next year, we should be where the Braves are sitting now - maybe not the best team in the division, but making noise.

I don't know that Machado is the right guy, we'll see how this season plays out. If Garcia comes back from the DL and is awful, the OF could be a bigger need. The bullpen needs help badly. But in 2015, the Cubs signed Lester because he fit their needs, and he was a key player in 2016. 

If we don't pay Garcia next year, then the White Sox will have a payroll commitment in this offseason under $40 million. They could target Harper and Kimbrel and potentially still keep their payroll under $100 million. In my eyes, they have 2 offseasons to hit the FA market; 2019 and 2020. 2019 is a strong class with huge names, we should be in that and trying to land one of them. With continued revenue growth from shared revenues, and maybe actually a slight bump in interest in a nonawful team, we should be in position to have 1 more splash possible in 2020 if we want. In 2021 Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez all will be in their first year arb eligible years, and I think we all expect Moncada to break the record for 1st year arbitration salary until Jiminez and Kopech break it again in 2022. For Free Agency, hit the ground this offseason and try to land 2-ish targets. If you land 1, then you have one more shot the next offseason.

And for where the team should be...with the roster we have right now we should be solid next year. We may not win the wild card, but we should at least be legitimately in the conversation. Maybe Rodon spends another year on the DL and Miguel Gonzalez isn't good enough to get us there, I can deal with those kind of excuses, but we darn well ought to be substantially better than 2015 and 2016 next year. We should look like a team on the way.

[Chicago White Sox]

I will say this.  We are close enough to competing that you don't pass on young, positional super-stars next off-season.  The #1 goal for us should be trying to snag one of Machado or Harper.  That's an uphill battle obviously, but players of that ilk don't come around very often and we should take some swings now.

Just for arguments sake, a lineup built around Machado/Harper, Moncada, Abrue, Jimenez, & Anderson is a damn good starting point.  You'd also have guys like Castillo, Davidson, & Sanchez in the mix.  There's a lot of potential in that lineup and that doesn't even include Avi for potentially his last year and another veteran on a short-term deal.

On the pitching side we'll have a rotation built around Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, & Giolito with Fulmer or one of the more fringe guys (Stephens, Adams, Guerrero) in the mix.  The bullpen will need some work but we if add an elite closer like Kimbrel, a veteran lefty, and get back Burdi I think we can put together a solid to good bullpen.

Again, I'm not expecting this team to automatically compete for a playoff, but they'd have enough young talent for the team to take a massive leap if things go right.     

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I see you guys are finally coming around to the idea of bringing in veteran relief help via free agency.....

[Balta1701]

I know we also heard this before, but we heard it for a reason - it was true. One of the motivations behind the "all in" gambles in 2015 and 2016 was that this team has huge potential for revenue growth through more ad sales, more ticket sales, and maybe a ticket price increase if there is ever more than a skeleton crew around the ballpark. The 2015 and 2016 seasons seemed motivated, at least in part, by the idea that if this team could win the wild card, the additional revenue from ticket and ad sales would help pay to improve the team in subsequent years.

It will not cover all of Harper's deal, but a few thousand extra ticket sales a game by adding one of those stars to a young and upcoming roster that finally gets back over .500 in 2019 is another potential feature to consider.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I know we also heard this before, but we heard it for a reason - it was true. One of the motivations behind the "all in" gambles in 2015 and 2016 was that this team has huge potential for revenue growth through more ad sales, more ticket sales, and maybe a ticket price increase if there is ever more than a skeleton crew around the ballpark. The 2015 and 2016 seasons seemed motivated, at least in part, by the idea that if this team could win the wild card, the additional revenue from ticket and ad sales would help pay to improve the team in subsequent years.

It will not cover all of Harper's deal, but a few thousand extra ticket sales a game by adding one of those stars to a young and upcoming roster that finally gets back over .500 in 2019 is another potential feature to consider.

Don't forget we have a TV deal that will be expiring soon.  Adding a legit superstar could add some value there as well.

[wrathofhahn]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

You say to look at how long the Cubs and Astros took, when projecting for 2019 I also say to look what happened in the years before those teams won their titles. In 2015, the Astros, with a rookie George Springer, were a wild card team. They missed the playoffs the next year, but then won 100+ in 2017 and their world series. In 2015, the Cubs had many of their guys up - Bryant was in AAA for the first 2 weeks for service time reasons, Schwarber didn't appear until the end of the year, but the pieces were mostly there. That Cubs team won 96 games, the wild card, and was "Daniel Murphy collected all 6 infinity stones" away from the World Series. 

Next year, the White Sox should have the bulk of round 1 up. The 3 pitchers we had who needed a year to struggle are getting their year to struggle, and we're starting to see some good signs from some of them - we saw this with Danks and Floyd in our last actual competitive team, they struggled their way through 2007 and then were key contributors to a wild card in 2008. Moncada is getting his year to struggle. Come next year, those players should be ready to take steps forward...and on top of that, Kopech and Jiminez are arriving. By next year, we should be where the Braves are sitting now - maybe not the best team in the division, but making noise.

I don't know that Machado is the right guy, we'll see how this season plays out. If Garcia comes back from the DL and is awful, the OF could be a bigger need. The bullpen needs help badly. But in 2015, the Cubs signed Lester because he fit their needs, and he was a key player in 2016. 

If we don't pay Garcia next year, then the White Sox will have a payroll commitment in this offseason under $40 million. They could target Harper and Kimbrel and potentially still keep their payroll under $100 million. In my eyes, they have 2 offseasons to hit the FA market; 2019 and 2020. 2019 is a strong class with huge names, we should be in that and trying to land one of them. With continued revenue growth from shared revenues, and maybe actually a slight bump in interest in a nonawful team, we should be in position to have 1 more splash possible in 2020 if we want. In 2021 Moncada, Giolito, and Lopez all will be in their first year arb eligible years, and I think we all expect Moncada to break the record for 1st year arbitration salary until Jiminez and Kopech break it again in 2022. For Free Agency, hit the ground this offseason and try to land 2-ish targets. If you land 1, then you have one more shot the next offseason.

And for where the team should be...with the roster we have right now we should be solid next year. We may not win the wild card, but we should at least be legitimately in the conversation. Maybe Rodon spends another year on the DL and Miguel Gonzalez isn't good enough to get us there, I can deal with those kind of excuses, but we darn well ought to be substantially better than 2015 and 2016 next year. We should look like a team on the way.

Agreed we should but the reality is we just don't and as much as these longterm deals for superstars are popular for fans they almost never work out for the club that signs them.

I'd much rather us wait figure out what we have and either fill in the position holes with acquired talent or veteran stop gaps. If you are going to spend extend your own guys and if your are going to spend big in FA try to keep the term short.

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Agreed we should but the reality is we just don't and as much as these longterm deals for superstars are popular for fans they almost never work out for the club that signs them.

I'd much rather us wait figure out what we have and either fill in the position holes with acquired talent or veteran stop gaps. If you are going to spend extend your own guys and if your are going to spend big in FA try to keep the term short.

After seeing how stop gap guys and short term guys and guys who are passed their prime and on their final contract worked out for the White Sox over and over and over, I pretty much have no interest in doing that. I consider that to be a losing strategy. We have a talent loaded system right now, we should only have a handful of positions that we can't cover from our own organization by 2020. Fill 1 or 2 of those positions with monsters, and the rest falls into place.

This is one of those "learn from your mistakes" arguments. 

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

After seeing how stop gap guys and short term guys and guys who are passed their prime and on their final contract worked out for the White Sox over and over and over, I pretty much have no interest in doing that. I consider that to be a losing strategy. We have a talent loaded system right now, we should only have a handful of positions that we can't cover from our own organization by 2020. Fill 1 or 2 of those positions with monsters, and the rest falls into place.

This is one of those "learn from your mistakes" arguments. 

The whole development thing hadn't exactly worked out for this franchise either, and we have pretty much staked our entire future on it.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The whole development thing hadn't exactly worked out for this franchise either, and we have pretty much staked our entire future on it.

I would reply that we were pretty adamant about not trying development. Anything that remotely resembled a developmental prospect was traded away. Draft picks were given up. Little to nothing happened internationally. Minor leaguers that went to other teams wound up producing amazement over how little coaching the guys had received.

[wrathofhahn]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

After seeing how stop gap guys and short term guys and guys who are passed their prime and on their final contract worked out for the White Sox over and over and over, I pretty much have no interest in doing that. I consider that to be a losing strategy. We have a talent loaded system right now, we should only have a handful of positions that we can't cover from our own organization by 2020. Fill 1 or 2 of those positions with monsters, and the rest falls into place.

This is one of those "learn from your mistakes" arguments. 

If the farm system truly is loaded then we shouldn't need to commit to someone for 7-10 years we should be looking to fill holes. Just because the FO has done a poor job in the past should not preclude us from doing so in the future.

 

[wrathofhahn]

On 4/26/2018 at 8:11 PM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Encarnacion sucked at the start of last year too but he ended up with a pretty good year but yeah one of these years he will actually be bad .

Encarnacion is a perfect example of the type of player you target instead. He has what a 3 year deal even if he is useful for two he won't hamstring you.

Contrast that to Davis and Pujols.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, wrathofhahn said:

If the farm system truly is loaded then we shouldn't need to commit to someone for 7-10 years we should be looking to fill holes. Just because the FO has done a poor job in the past should not preclude us from doing so in the future.

  

That's not how baseball works. If you have 15 MLB level prospects, you are not going to magically have 1 who fits well at each position, 5 starting pitchers and 1 closer. You are instead going to have guys who arrive in stages (check), a couple positions that don't have someone at a given time (check), and a couple positions where you wind up oversubscribed (see the draft thread where right now we're asking if we should avoid drafting a 2b because of Moncada). 

Take advantage of these guys while they're cheap to fill a hole with the money you have available. That's why you do a rebuild in the first place.

[wrathofhahn]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

That's not how baseball works. If you have 15 MLB level prospects, you are not going to magically have 1 who fits well at each position, 5 starting pitchers and 1 closer. You are instead going to have guys who arrive in stages (check), a couple positions that don't have someone at a given time (check), and a couple positions where you wind up oversubscribed (see the draft thread where right now we're asking if we should avoid drafting a 2b because of Moncada). 

Take advantage of these guys while they're cheap to fill a hole with the money you have available. That's why you do a rebuild in the first place.

Agreed but when you talk about Harper and Machado they aren't gap fillers you are committing to them for probably at least seven even maybe a decade.

[Balta1701]

Just now, wrathofhahn said:

Agreed but when you talk about Harper and Machado they aren't gap fillers you are committing to them for probably at least seven even maybe a decade.

I'm totally ok with this. My priority is winning a world series in 2019-2021. Do that and those deals are balanced out by the surge in season ticket sales - we already saw that with this franchise. And conveniently, they're young enough that committing to them for a decade shouldn't scare us off. You mentioned Pujols a few posts ago - if I could have gotten Pujols for a 10 year deal starting when he was 26, over that stretch Pujols produced an average .946 OPS.

[Chicago White Sox]

Harper & Machado will certainly get opt-outs and will likely use them.  I’ll happily take the prime years of either of the two and let them leave after four years or so.  If we’re afraid to sign true young superstars when we’ll have minimal financial obligations then we might as well fold up shop.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Harper & Machado will certainly get opt-outs and will likely use them.  I’ll happily take the prime years of either of the two and let them leave after four years or so.  If we’re afraid to sign true young superstars when we’ll have minimal financial obligations then we might as well fold up shop.

I'm not going to use the opt-out as a way to make those look better because it leaves the White Sox on the hook, Heyward style, if they get injured or aren't good enough to use the opt-out.

I would not sign either of them to a 10 year deal with opt-outs after only 2 years. I need that 3rd year guaranteed from them. That's probably my 1 line i will not cross.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm not going to use the opt-out as a way to make those look better because it leaves the White Sox on the hook, Heyward style, if they get injured or aren't good enough to use the opt-out.

I would not sign either of them to a 10 year deal with opt-outs after only 2 years. I need that 3rd year guaranteed from them. That's probably my 1 line i will not cross.

The opt-out is a reality so I’m not sure why you would ignore it.  The reality is if we sign one of these guys they’re getting such a clause and there’s a certain proabability it gets exercised.  I know the Heyward outcome sucks, but the reality is it’s likely a 90% chance or so these guys opt-out the first opportunity they have.  So again, the likely outcome is we’re signing one of these guys to a 3 or 4 year deal with a player options for another 6 or 7 years.  That would work well for us given that Moncada & others will start getting expensive right around that time.  If one of these guys fails to use their opt-out, well then we just got unlucky.  Having said that, we can’t be afraid to take calculated risks and Cubs were still able to win a World Series despite their miss on Heyward.  I do agree an opt-out after two years would be a no-go.  A minumum of three and preferably four would be my requirement.