Zack Collins Criticism

[Jose Abreu]

17 hours ago, Lillian said:

If he can maintain a .400+ OBP, and hit 25+ homers, as the primary catcher, when he gets to the Big Leagues

 

I find it funny when people open up with that. If he can maintain those numbers then he's one of the best offensive players in all of baseball, and easily the best offensive catcher. I'll take the home runs and a .360 OBP, personally 

[Lillian]

3 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

I find it funny when people open up with that. If he can maintain those numbers then he's one of the best offensive players in all of baseball, and easily the best offensive catcher. I'll take the home runs and a .360 OBP, personally 

I would also take a .360 OBP, but there is evidence to suggest that it might be even higher. He really has an exceptional ability to draw walks. He leads the Southern League in walks, by a good margin, and is averaging better than one walk per game. It will be interesting to see what happens when he gets to the Majors, where pitchers have better control. Establishing the fact that he doesn't swing at many pitches out of the zone, will give him more chances to see good pitches. If he can make better contact, he could become a very good run producer. Is he striking out swinging, or more often on called strikes?

[ChiSox1917]

7 hours ago, Lillian said:

I would also take a .360 OBP, but there is evidence to suggest that it might be even higher. He really has an exceptional ability to draw walks. He leads the Southern League in walks, by a good margin, and is averaging better than one walk per game. It will be interesting to see what happens when he gets to the Majors, where pitchers have better control. Establishing the fact that he doesn't swing at many pitches out of the zone, will give him more chances to see good pitches. If he can make better contact, he could become a very good run producer. Is he striking out swinging, or more often on called strikes?

It won't be any higher unless he either somehow learns to hit lefties or he's platooned.  

[Dam8610]

Anyone have his vs. LHP numbers since April 24 or even just in May?

[Anderdale]

25 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Anyone have his vs. LHP numbers since April 24 or even just in May?

Wondering this as well. They have to be better.

[chitownsportsfan]

Hard to extrapolate a walk rate from AA into MLB.  I'd expect him to maintain a walk rate of 8-10% in MLB but it's not going to be in the 12-15% range unless he dramatically improves his contact rate.  MLB pitchers just aren't going to mess around with 2 strike or 2-2 or 3-2 counts like AA pitchers, who might not have the confidence or command to challenge him on the black or even down the middle with a good heater.

At this point I don't think there's much question about his bat playing in MLB.  So, is he a catcher, even part time?  If he can catch 50 games a year and DH/1B another 80 and hit 250/330/480 that's a solid guy to have around.  If he's not at all a catcher then he's a lot less valuable as a DH/1B type only.

[TheBlackSox8]

1 hour ago, Anderdale said:

Wondering this as well. They have to be better.

If you could see stat splits per month instead of to date you'd be able to see May at least...then figure the last week of April.  Looks like he's only had 34 or so at bats unfortunately against LHP.

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Hard to extrapolate a walk rate from AA into MLB.  I'd expect him to maintain a walk rate of 8-10% in MLB but it's not going to be in the 12-15% range unless he dramatically improves his contact rate.  MLB pitchers just aren't going to mess around with 2 strike or 2-2 or 3-2 counts like AA pitchers, who might not have the confidence or command to challenge him on the black or even down the middle with a good heater.

At this point I don't think there's much question about his bat playing in MLB.  So, is he a catcher, even part time?  If he can catch 50 games a year and DH/1B another 80 and hit 250/330/480 that's a solid guy to have around.  If he's not at all a catcher then he's a lot less valuable as a DH/1B type only.

You think his BB rate is somehow going to be fall from 25% in AA to 8 to 10% in the pros?  He has perhaps the best plate discipline in the entire minors and is the victim of poor umpiring.  I’d be absolutely shocked if his BB rate in the majors fell below 15%.

[southsider2k5]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think his BB rate is somehow going to be fall from 25% in AA to 8 to 10% in the pros?  He has perhaps the best plate discipline in the entire minors and is the victim of poor umpiring.  I’d be absolutely shocked if his BB rate in the majors fell below 15%.

A 15% walk rate would put him at 90 walks in 600 PAs.  The 8 guys who  walked 90+ times last year read as a good chunk of the all-star game in Votto, Judge, Matt Carpenter, Ed Encarnacion, Kris Bryant, Goldschimit, Trout and Rizzo.

The lowest OPS out of that whole bunch was .835 from Carpenter.

Collins is going to have to hit a ton to get that kind of respect to pitchers to allow him to talk at a 15% rate.

[bmags]

Narvaez has kept a 12.5% walk rate despite absolutely zero power. That's a percentage I'd look at Collins to keep. Actually Gary Sanchez' 2018 slash would be kinda what I see Collins as a pro look like.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

A 15% walk rate would put him at 90 walks in 600 PAs.  The 8 guys who  walked 90+ times last year read as a good chunk of the all-star game in Votto, Judge, Matt Carpenter, Ed Encarnacion, Kris Bryant, Goldschimit, Trout and Rizzo.

The lowest OPS out of that whole bunch was .835 from Carpenter.

Collins is going to have to hit a ton to get that kind of respect to pitchers to allow him to talk at a 15% rate.

How many of those guys had 25% BB rates in AA?  I think some of you guys are seriously undervaluing what kind of a rare asset Collin’s batter’s eye is.  He will likely see some drop when he reaches the pros, but a 50% decrease because “major league pitching” is pretty absurd IMO.  If that happens, then he’s going to get a lot more good pitches to hit.  Regardless, are there actually any examples of a player who walked as much as Collins suddenly not walking in the pros?

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How many of those guys had 25% BB rates in AA?  I think some of you guys are seriously undervaluing what kind of a rare asset Collin’s batter’s eye is.  He will likely see some drop when he reaches the pros, but a 50% decrease because “major league pitching” is pretty absurd IMO.  If that happens, then he’s going to get a lot more good pitches to hit.  Regardless, are there actually any examples of a player who walked as much as Collins suddenly not walking in the pros?

I have no idea.  What I can tell you is what is in front of me, and that is you have to be essentially an all-star level hitter or better for teams to walk you 15% of the time in the majors.

[OmarComing25]

FWIW Steamer thinks his walk rate would be 14.5% in the majors right now. We’re talking about a guy who probably has the best eye in the minors so I don’t think that is unreasonable. He could have the eye of Narvaez with considerably more power.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

FWIW Steamer thinks his walk rate would be 14.5% in the majors right now. We’re talking about a guy who probably has the best eye in the minors so I don’t think that is unreasonable. He could have the eye of Narvaez with considerably more power.

Also worth mentioning that Todd Frazier since 2017 has a 14.5 BB rate, similar contact skills. 15% may be his ceiling, but it's not an unlikely ceiling imo.

[Chicago White Sox]

28 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I have no idea.  What I can tell you is what is in front of me, and that is you have to be essentially an all-star level hitter or better for teams to walk you 15% of the time in the majors.

I don’t disagree that it seems crazy, but a 25% BB rate in AA is pretty crazy itself.  I’ve been looking for comps but there really aren’t any good ones.  From what I can tell, most of the players with BB rate in the high teens lose a good four or five points from AA to the pros.  Matt Olsen did lose about eight points since AA and that’s the most extreme example I could find in recent years.  I think a 15% BB rate is a pretty realistic target IMO with room for some upside.

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

FWIW Steamer thinks his walk rate would be 14.5% in the majors right now. We’re talking about a guy who probably has the best eye in the minors so I don’t think that is unreasonable. He could have the eye of Narvaez with considerably more power.

That’s interesting, thanks for posting.

[Dam8610]

So are all of you who are concerned about his walk rate dropping not buying that the adjustment he made to his swing that resulted in him being a different caliber of hitter since is something that will last? You think he'll be back to hitting in the .220s instead of over .300 as he's done for a little over a month now? Because May Zack Collins extrapolated over a full season would be an all-star at any position, and an MVP candidate at C.

[chitownsportsfan]

@Dam8610

Anybody that thinks Collins is now a sure fire MLB hitter is as deluded as anybody that thought he was a bust prior to this hot streak.  It's a SSS and his overall body of work as a prospect is promising -- but because he's not a surefire catcher he's got a pretty low floor and could top out as a AAAA player.

I don't really take much stock in "swing adjustments", but hey, if he's improved his true talent level awesome.  It's too early to say however.

Edited May 29, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[Dam8610]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

@Dam8610

Anybody that thinks Collins is now a sure fire MLB hitter is as deluded as anybody that thought he was a bust prior to this hot streak.  It's a SSS and his overall body of work as a prospect is promising -- but because he's not a surefire catcher he's got a pretty low floor and could top out as a AAAA player.

I don't really take much stock in "swing adjustments", but hey, if he's improved his true talent level awesome.  It's too early to say however.

I wasn't implying that anything was guaranteed, I'm just surprised by the talk of poor contact rates here while he's been hitting better than anything he's done previously since college. It could just be a hot streak, but those typically only last a couple weeks and aren't necessarily accompanied by a change in approach.

[turnin' two]

On 5/28/2018 at 7:07 AM, Lillian said:

If he can maintain a .400+ OBP, and hit 25+ homers, as the primary catcher, when he gets to the Big Leagues,

 

 

Related to what I mentioned in an earlier comparison, this would likely make Collins a HOF player.

[turnin' two]

3 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

 

I don't really take much stock in "swing adjustments", but hey, if he's improved his true talent level awesome.  It's too early to say however.

You don't take stock in players making adjustments in order to be better?  That seems really, really weird, if that were true, no one would ever like, get better.

[Jack Parkman]

It is far easier to admit you were wrong and eat crow about a guy who is good that you thought would suck(Collins) than a guy you thought was good that turns out to suck. (Giolito) 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[chitownsportsfan]

51 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

You don't take stock in players making adjustments in order to be better?  That seems really, really weird, if that were true, no one would ever like, get better.

*sigh*  Simple math tells us (and so does like, baseball, and following it and playing it) that not many players turn into 280 hitters at age 23 after being 240 hitters (or thereabouts, level appropriate) for their careers.

How many "mechanical adjustment" stories do you hear that work out in pro ball, all levels? Not a lot.  It's because EVERYBODY IS ALREADY REALLY GOOD.

Good lord, if it was that easy everybody would do it.  Everybody at this level works hard, gets the best coaching and puts in the effort -- the difference between a great hitter and a poor hitter isn't something you can sum up like 2+2 = 4.

When I say I put "almost no  stock in mechanical adjustments" what I mean is simply -- show me.  Show, over the course of 300 or so PA in AA that you really are a 280 hitter now.  Sure, when Collins is hitting 280 in MLB, after 1000 PA and is coming off a 4 WAR season batting 5th for your 95 win, Pennant winning Sox team come remind me about his mechanical adjustments made at 23 in AA, but until then let's just cool it. 

All players make adjustments.  Some are more successful than others.

Edited May 30, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[ptatc]

8 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

*sigh*  Simple math tells us (and so does like, baseball, and following it and playing it) that not many players turn into 280 hitters at age 23 after being 240 hitters (or thereabouts, level appropriate) for their careers.

How many "mechanical adjustment" stories do you hear that work out in pro ball, all levels? Not a lot.  It's because EVERYBODY IS ALREADY REALLY GOOD.

Good lord, if it was that easy everybody would do it.  Everybody at this level works hard, gets the best coaching and puts in the effort -- the difference between a great hitter and a poor hitter isn't something you can sum up like 2+2 = 4.

When I say I put "almost no  stock in mechanical adjustments" what I mean is simply -- show me.  Show, over the course of 300 or so PA in AA that you really are a 280 hitter now.  Sure, when Collins is hitting 280 in MLB, after 1000 PA and is coming off a 4 WAR season batting 5th for your 95 win, Pennant winning Sox team come remind me about his mechanical adjustments made at 23 in AA, but until then let's just cool it. 

All players make adjustments.  Some are more successful than others.

?‍♂️

[turnin' two]

46 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

*sigh*  Simple math tells us (and so does like, baseball, and following it and playing it) that not many players turn into 280 hitters at age 23 after being 240 hitters (or thereabouts, level appropriate) for their careers.

How many "mechanical adjustment" stories do you hear that work out in pro ball, all levels? Not a lot.  It's because EVERYBODY IS ALREADY REALLY GOOD.

Good lord, if it was that easy everybody would do it.  Everybody at this level works hard, gets the best coaching and puts in the effort -- the difference between a great hitter and a poor hitter isn't something you can sum up like 2+2 = 4.

When I say I put "almost no  stock in mechanical adjustments" what I mean is simply -- show me.  Show, over the course of 300 or so PA in AA that you really are a 280 hitter now.  Sure, when Collins is hitting 280 in MLB, after 1000 PA and is coming off a 4 WAR season batting 5th for your 95 win, Pennant winning Sox team come remind me about his mechanical adjustments made at 23 in AA, but until then let's just cool it. 

All players make adjustments.  Some are more successful than others.

Sigh.  Must be so difficult being that much smarter than everyone else.  Sorry.  

A couple question though, and please indulge me, because I clearly don't understand things as well as you do.  

So, first one is that, since Collins was basically a very good hitter in college, hitting .300 or so his entire career, hit .260 his first year with WS, was bad last year (in his first full season of pro-ball -- how dare he!), how does that make him a .240 hitter? 

As for examples of guys that made big adjustments after the ripe old age of 23, well I would say that most (even all players) make adjustments, but I guess that is because I don't understand simple math, or that EVERYBODY IS ALREADY REALLY GOOD, so why would they need to make adjustments?  Sorry, I am a dufus.  

My second question is: Are you contesting that a guy is what he is at 23 and that no material changes can be made after that?

Can't really think of them off the top of my head, but I seem to recall hearing about mechanical changes making a difference all the time.  Arm slot, release point, position in the batters box ( remember when Anthony Rizzo couldn't hit lefties at all then made this small mechanical change?) trying to adjust launch angle (about 50 guys last season) adding a leg kick (Jose Bautista went from a DFA guy to a perennial All Star) messing with their stance (Cal Ripken Jr.?) or always making small adjustments from the time he was drafted (Aaron Judge -- moving in the box, shifting his weight back and lessening his leg kick).   How about that, I did think of a couple off the top of my head. But who knows, maybe I just don't like, follow or play baseball enough.

I do like your 2+2=4.  I get that, maybe I am better at math than I thought.  I don't, however, understand what the statement you are making in that paragraph is trying to say, at all.  I would say the difference between a good hitter and a great hitter may be their ability to make adjustments.  They all have the physical skills (to different degrees) but the ability to adjust to what their competition is doing is what makes guys great.  I distinctly recall Manny Ramirez adjusting AB to AB and pitch to pitch and making pitchers for not adjusting their approach to him.

Final question: If Collins has a 4 WAR season, hits .280 in 1000 PA but the Sox don't win the pennant, can I still remind you?  I guess not, it doesn't meet your arbitrary criteria for a player making an adjustment that all players make that you don't believe in but say some are better at than others.  That sentence confused me.  Must be because you contradicted yourself.  

But, I will officially "cool it".  Thanks for the tip.  

Edited May 30, 2018 by turnin' two