Zack Collins Criticism

[Chisoxfn]

Fantastic thread Jimmy. I think one other key point to highlight, beyond all the excellent points you make, is the fact that we are talking about a catcher, which is the one position whose development curve is entirely different.  Catchers flat out require the most development of any position and when you counter in the amount of work they have to do to get big league ready behind the plate as well as hone their craft at calling a game, etc, in addition to the pure development of the bat and than add in the natural wear and tear that comes from being a catcher, and you really have to be extremely patient. Very rarely do you see catchers who have the more typical linear progression that you see out of other top position prospects and it is because of the facts above that I listed (among other things).  

[Jake]

Collins now with a .190/.392/.362 line (that's a .754 OPS for those who don't like math) and has a 24% BB% paired with a 30% K%. It's really something that with the way he started his numbers are basically right back into the realm of respectability this quickly.

[bmags]

The one thing that has calmed me down with Collins is as opposed to someone like Rutherford, in-person reports on his hitting have been pretty good. Not Jimenez stuff, but of the "he's working through some stuff, still believe in the power and the approach".

Baseball's hard. He's in an advanced level. Until he completely craters losing patience or sox move him to 1b, I'm just gonna let the process play out.

[Dunt]

45 minutes ago, Jake said:

Collins now with a .190/.392/.362 line (that's a .754 OPS for those who don't like math) and has a 24% BB% paired with a 30% K%. It's really something that with the way he started his numbers are basically right back into the realm of respectability this quickly.

It's like everybody overreacted to a slow start with a new swing

Edited April 30, 2018 by Dunt

[southsider2k5]

29 minutes ago, bmags said:

The one thing that has calmed me down with Collins is as opposed to someone like Rutherford, in-person reports on his hitting have been pretty good. Not Jimenez stuff, but of the "he's working through some stuff, still believe in the power and the approach".

Baseball's hard. He's in an advanced level. Until he completely craters losing patience or sox move him to 1b, I'm just gonna let the process play out.

And in Collins case specifically, they are making some pretty major changes to his swing path.  The phrase "he has a hitch" sounds simple enough, but changing the muscle memory of a lifetime is really hard.

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

Collins after 94 PA in 22 games now at .229/.415/.414 line. 23.4% BB rate, 26.6% K rate with 3 HRs, 16 runs, and 10 RBI. wRC+ of 142. BABIP .302.

His last 9 games: .424/.558/.727. 14 hits. 2 2Bs, 1 3B, 2 HR, 11 R, 7 RBI, 9 BB (20.93%), 6 K (13.95%). BABIP .480.

[Chicago White Sox]

15 minutes ago, Sox Fan In Husker Land said:

Collins after 94 PA in 22 games now at .229/.415/.414 line. 23.4% BB rate, 26.6% K rate with 3 HRs, 16 runs, and 10 RBI. wRC+ of 142. BABIP .302.

His last 9 games: .424/.558/.727. 14 hits. 2 2Bs, 1 3B, 2 HR, 11 R, 7 RBI, 9 BB (20.93%), 6 K (13.95%). BABIP .480.

Look at that K rate.  Obviously unsustainable for someone as patient at him, but provides room for optimism that he can ultimately land around 20% or so.  And if that happens and he can maintain the power he's shown, the kid will be an absolute stud with the bat.  Just got to hope the glove continues to develop.

[reiks12]

Another good night for Collins. Either his hitting is on a streak or that new hitting style is working out well.

 

Any word on his defense this season?

[Jose Abreu]

Collins is an absolute monster offensively. I hope those who jumped ship due to a bad 2 weeks in April are watching this.

[daggins]

11 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Collins is an absolute monster offensively. I hope those who jumped ship due to a bad 2 weeks in April are watching this.

Lol lets not get nuts. He still isn't hitting for much power, and despite a .300 BABIP, he still has a low BA. I'm not completely sold on him, but I am encouraged compared to a few weeks ago.

[BlackSox13]

18 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Collins is an absolute monster offensively. I hope those who jumped ship due to a bad 2 weeks in April are watching this.

Oh they are reading this alright. Waiting for Collins hot streak to end and they will come back with " I told you so" and "bust" comments. I guess it is easy to write off a catcher with his offensive potential after less than two years of pro ball at age 23.

[Jose Abreu]

40 minutes ago, daggins said:

Lol lets not get nuts. He still isn't hitting for much power, and despite a .300 BABIP, he still has a low BA. I'm not completely sold on him, but I am encouraged compared to a few weeks ago.

Don’t know if this is what you were implying but a .300 BABIP is actually below average, and often suggests an increase in his batting average. But it’s his on base skills that have me excited. 

[thxfrthmmrs]

Let’s pump the brakes on throwing out theories on BABIP. To measure whether not Collins has been more lucky or unlucky that usual, you’d need to measure his BABIP compared to past years or players with similar batted ball and speed profile.

Saying that Collins’ BABIP is at .300 or is lower than the league average simply is using the stat the wrong way.

[daggins]

It's not so much whether it is or isn't league average, but that it has reverted to a much more normal level than previously. Despite that, his average is still low and his slg% is pretty anemic. I agree that it's hyperbolic to say he was washed up after a couple bad weeks, but it's equally hyperbolic to declare him an absolute stud after a couple of good weeks, especially when the overall picture is still pretty tepid.

[Jose Abreu]

3 minutes ago, daggins said:

It's not so much whether it is or isn't league average, but that it has reverted to a much more normal level than previously. Despite that, his average is still low and his slg% is pretty anemic. I agree that it's hyperbolic to say he was washed up after a couple bad weeks, but it's equally hyperbolic to declare him an absolute stud after a couple of good weeks, especially when the overall picture is still pretty tepid.

I agree with everything in this post except for the last part- I'm not calling him a stud (on offense) because of 2 weeks. It's the entire body of work that impresses me. His career minor league numbers are what prompt my excitement in him. 

 

I also believe his slugging % and home runs will increase in MLB because

a. Birmingham is very pitcher friendly

b. The juiced ball is causing a power surge in players who get called up from the minors lately 

[Jose Abreu]

42 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Let’s pump the brakes on throwing out theories on BABIP. To measure whether not Collins has been more lucky or unlucky that usual, you’d need to measure his BABIP compared to past years or players with similar batted ball and speed profile.

Saying that Collins’ BABIP is at .300 or is lower than the league average simply is using the stat the wrong way.

This is all true. I also think that batted ball stats need to be taken into consideration, although at AA that's obviously easier said than done. I only brought that point because I couldn't tell if Daggins was implying that his BABIP was high, which has since been clarified.

[southsider2k5]

Has anyone actually seen him live in the last two weeks?  Does this mean the new swing is coming together for him?

[thxfrthmmrs]

21 minutes ago, daggins said:

It's not so much whether it is or isn't league average, but that it has reverted to a much more normal level than previously. Despite that, his average is still low and his slg% is pretty anemic. I agree that it's hyperbolic to say he was washed up after a couple bad weeks, but it's equally hyperbolic to declare him an absolute stud after a couple of good weeks, especially when the overall picture is still pretty tepid.

Let's also not ignore that he has cut his K% drastically the last 10 games, from 37% to 14.5%. Since BABIP doesn't take this into consideration, that's why I think using it as the argument here is flawed. Consider this, he can put more balls in play simply by not striking out as much as he did in the past.

If the improvement in K% could be attributed back to the swing fix finally paying off, then you will see sustained success from him. 

[thxfrthmmrs]

20 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

This is all true. I also think that batted ball stats need to be taken into consideration, although at AA that's obviously easier said than done. I only brought that point because I couldn't tell if Daggins was implying that his BABIP was high, which has since been clarified.

His BABIP coming into the year was something like .290. So a .300 BABIP WOULD be considered high for him. Without seeing any batted ball data, it's hard to see whether the increase in BABIP is sustainable and if that number would continue to go up.

[OmarComing25]

19 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

His BABIP coming into the year was something like .290. So a .300 BABIP WOULD be considered high for him. Without seeing any batted ball data, it's hard to see whether the increase in BABIP is sustainable and if that number would continue to go up.

His line drive % is over 26% this season while in the past couple seasons it’s been around 17%. So it does appear that he’s making better contact.

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

2 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

Oh they are reading this alright. Waiting for Collins hot streak to end and they will come back with " I told you so" and "bust" comments. I guess it is easy to write off a catcher with his offensive potential after less than two years of pro ball at age 23.

The guy only has 35 games, and 142 PA at AA. His #s have gotten slightly better offensively at AA compared to A+. 

 

AA - .864 OPS. 36 BB (25.25%) : 37 K (26.06%). ISO .198 

A+ - .828 OPS. 109 BB (18.83%) :157 K (27.12%). ISO .217

If the Sox can get a catcher that can adequately handle the position while posting an OB% around .375, hitting around 20 HRs, and an OPS around .800 sign me up. Do not care if he hits .220. 

Edited May 5, 2018 by Sox Fan In Husker Land

[Dam8610]

20 minutes ago, Sox Fan In Husker Land said:

The guy only has 35 games, and 142 PA at AA. His #s have gotten slightly better offensively at AA compared to A+. 

 

AA - .864 OPS. 36 BB (25.25%) : 37 K (26.06%). ISO .198 

A+ - .828 OPS. 109 BB (18.83%) :157 K (27.12%). ISO .217

If the Sox can get a catcher that can adequately handle the position while posting an OB% around .375, hitting around 20 HRs, and an OPS around .850 sign me up. Do not care if he hits .220. 

Exactly. An .850 OPS from the C position is elite.

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

Just for reference the Sox have only had 14 occurrences since 1901 where a Catcher (min 160 PA) had an OPS of .800 or greater for a season. 5 were by Carlton Fisk. The Sox have only had 3 occurrences since 1901 where a Catcher (min 160 PA) had an OPS of .850 or greater for a season. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

On 5/5/2018 at 1:57 PM, southsider2k5 said:

Has anyone actually seen him live in the last two weeks?  Does this mean the new swing is coming together for him?

One of our writers at The Loop Sports, David Wildman just interviewed Hostetler and he had some interesting stuff to say about Collins: https://theloopsports.com/2018/05/05/white-sox-director-of-scouting-nick-hostetler-talks-draft-prospects-and-ice-cream/

 

TLS: Zack Collins has really picked it up lately, what do you think about him right now?

NH: Yeah it’s been great. You know I love Zack, he started out slow this year. You know you’re a scouting director and as a scout you are personally involved in these players. And once you draft a guy you hang on to every single box score for your kids. You know, does he get a hit, does he strike out. So, Zack’s slow start was a little tough, and its funny, I talked to Zack and he laughed it off. He’s like, “don’t worry about it my timing, it’s getting there.”

And about three days later, he starts raking. He sent me a text two days ago, two or three days ago after he had a two-hit game with a couple of doubles, maybe even a triple. I think it was the triple game. He actually said, “see I told you, you knew you drafted a good player, but I bet you didn’t know you drafted good speed too.”

I mean, you got a 21-year-old, 22-year-old keeping it light-hearted when he’s struggling. You got to take a step back and take a breath. Trust the process. It has been a lot of fun to watch these guys. It’s going to be more fun once they end up in pinstripes.

[SoxAce]

Loved what he said about Cease and a couple others. Nice article.